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Chamber music workshop concerts
A pair of concerts by Winter Harbor Music Festival Chamber Music Workshop participants and faculty members will take place at Hammond Hall on Saturday and Sunday, Aug. 8 and 9,
Wisconsin given expert prediction to land 2028 offensive lineman
The Wisconsin Badgers recently received an expert prediction to land class of 2028 offensive lineman Brock Barrows.
Sewage, rat pee and toxic algae: Open water swimming is booming, but is it bad for your health?
Swimming in rivers and lakes is booming, but heavy rain, sewage overflows and farm runoff can lead to disease outbreaks. Here's how to spot when the risks to health are highest.
‘Ozempic face’ and hair loss: what evidence is there for weight-loss drug side-effects?
Research into GLP-1 medications is not always robust but complaints such as digestive problems are well known
New business numbers should be source of optimism
We know and share in the pain that fluctuating energy costs and gas prices and a decade of rising prices for groceries and other costs of living have inflicted on our nation and region. A Center Square article in Tuesday’s edition of the Williamsport Sun-Gazette offered some good news: The United States has seen nearly […]
Trump warns China and Russia not to ‘give or sell’ weapons to Iran
President Donald Trump says it would be “very bad” for Chinese President Xi Jinping or Russian President Vladimir Putin if Washington discovers they are supplying weapons to Tehran as the war between the United States and Iran escalates. “President Xi, at our recent meeting in Beijing, China, told me that he would not, under any […]
Phillies Reportedly Open to Bringing Back Blue Jays' Reliever
The Philadelphia Phillies are reportedly open to bringing back Toronto Blue Jays pitcher.
‘Dumbest thing in sports’ – NFL fans are ’embarrassed’ by new Buffalo Bills stadium design feature
The Buffalo Bills are gearing up for their first season in their state-of-the-art new stadium after leaving the old Highmark Stadium behind in January. Josh Allen’s first competitive game at the new Highmark Stadium will come in week two of the NFL season against the Detroit Lions.
Which Player Can Salvage Giants' Season?
The San Francisco Giants have had a terrible 2026 season, but it does not have to be all bad.
Yes, breathing wildfire smoke can harm your health
The first thing to do to protect yourself from wildfire smoke is to know how bad the smoke is and how long it is going to last.
Top pick Fernando Mendoza reports to Raiders camp, signs contract
Fernando Mendoza and the Raiders agreed to terms on the quarterback’s rookie contract, the team announced Thursday. Here are the details.
Entertainment: Bad Bunny Tour Results
Bad Bunny just pulled off something no artist has ever done before.
White House Report Criticizes The Immigration Of Scientists To America
A new White House report criticizes the immigration of scientists to America, arguing it’s bad whether international students stay or leave.
Wisconsin Athletics partners with Good Karma Brands for radio broadcast rights in Milwaukee area
Wisconsin Athletics and its exclusive multimedia rights holder, Learfield's Badger Sports Properties, announced today that Good Karma Brands has entered into...
Rebuilt O-Line Critical Piece for Seminoles Football Success
After a disappointing season, Mike Norvell retools with veteran transfers to form a massive "Great Wall of Humanity" tasked with protecting the pocket and revitalizing the run.
Seahawks Provide Zach Charbonnet Injury Update Ahead Of Training Camp
The Seahawks are set to begin training camp, but will Charbonnet be participating?
Bad for business in Indiana
Many years ago, I was up for a job as an editorial writer for a newspaper on the West Coast.
Billion Views Club entries for Black Eyed Peas, Roxette
Two very different songs have both joined YouTube's Billion Views Club.
More Than a Third of New Yorkers Think Sports Betting is Bad
Research from the Siena Research Institute found that approximately 5 million locals placed a sports bet within the last year.
Pakistan Unveils Rs 18.8 Trillion Budget 2026-27: Tax Relief for Salaried Class, Landmark Exemption for Women's Health Amid Regional Crisis
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb presents federal budget for fiscal year 2026-27 during a National Assembly sessionISLAMABAD, July 22, 2026 (...
By 39-22% NY’ers Say Online Sports Gambling is Bad for New York
1 in 4 NY’ers Placed a Bet on a Sporting Event in the Last Year Of Bettors: 84% Bet With Online Sportsbooks; 54% Bet With Friends or Family; 41% Bet…
This Might Be The Last Killer Switch 2 Deal Before Prices Rise
You could potentially save up to $100
Oregon DEQ issuing air quality health advisory for Portland metro
Oregon DEQ issued an air quality advisory for Portland metro, Salem, Hermiston and Ontario through 8 p.m. July 22 as ozone smog rises.
‘Clayface’ close-up: Tom Rhys Harries delves into DC’s R-rated body horror
Meet ‘Clayface’ star Tom Rhys Harries — the actor behind Matt Hagen, the character destined to become the Batman baddie in DC’s first horror movie.
New Top Gun 3 Project Is Happening, But It’s Not What Fans Want
A new Top Gun 3 project is underway, but it isn’t the sequel many fans were expecting. According to sources, the production companies are providing a new experience in Las Vegas via a Top Gun-themed e...
US Health Secretary Kennedy says CMS is pausing Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota
The Trump administration is pausing over $1 billion in Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota "because of suspected fraud and noncompliance," U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. said on Tuesday.
Cleveland Cavaliers Get Shocking New Timeline on LeBron James Decision
Rich Paul has shut down reports that LeBron James is nearing a decision on his free agency, spelling bad news for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The post Cleveland Cavaliers Get Shocking New Timeline on LeBron James Decision appeared first on HEAVY.
Notre Dame has tons of familiarity with Wisconsin, just not Lambeau
The Badgers will open their football season Sept. 6 at Lambeau Field as a 20.5-point underdog against the Irish.
Why Newcastle are changing club badge
Newcastle United supporters are set to vote on a new crest as the club look to change their badge for the first time since 1988.
Health officials urge food safety as cyclosporiasis cases rise in North Carolina
Cyclosporiasis, a parasitic illness that can cause diarrhea, vomiting and other symptoms, is rising across North Carolina and the U.S., health officials say.
Loads of fun planned for Sullivan Daze
The town of Sullivan will host Sullivan Daze, its annual “celebration of community and place,” at Sumner Park and other nearby locations on Friday and Saturday, July 31 and Aug.
Explained: Why India's medal-heavy sports like badminton, wrestling, hockey are missing from CWG 2026
The Glasgow CWG is going to be a severely truncated one with only ten sports on the roster.
Biggest Questions Facing Wisconsin Football Before Fall Camp
What are the most pressing topics entering camp as Luke Fickell looks to turn it around in year four?
UFC Freedom 250 Fails to Knock Out The Ratings
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) If UFC fans wanted one image to say, “Hey, Paramount+ is crushing it with their UFC rights deal,” I could provide that image. Here it is: (Reminder: this is my creation of the Nielsen Top 30, since Nielsen doesn’t combine the lists or include sports. I take all three lists and combine them. Some streaming TV shows probably have higher ratings than many of the films on this list.) Look at that! UFC Freedom 250 is number one! It topped the Nielsen “Top 30” list for shows and films that made the top ten the week of 15-June. So if you’re a UFC fan or supporter of Paramount+, that’s the good news for you this week. This program topped the ratings charts for one week. Everything else is bad news, or at least a huge caveat to that story, which I’ll explain today in the first part of this week’s Streaming Ratings Report—for the weeks of 8-June and 15-June—which is a double issue since I’ve been writing on a bunch of topics recently. UFC Freedom 250 is one of the biggest streaming events of the year, and super relevant to Paramount+’s strategy, so it merited its own article. Let’s dive in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of June 8th to June 21st 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Check Out My Interview on UFC 250 at MMA Draw After you read this article, if you want even more thoughts on UFC and Paramount-Skydance/Paramount+, I did a written interview with MMA Draw. They asked me to answer some questions about UFC Freedom 250, and I was happy to chat with them. Find it here: [ The MMA Draw Newsletter Did Paramount really overpay for the UFC? What the data tells us so far If you know the history of American television, you also know that combat sports is often a leading indicator of the future… Read more a day ago · 10 likes · 1 comment · Nate Wilcox and Zach Arnold ](https://www.themmadraw.com/p/did-paramount-really-overpay-for?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) I never thought I’d need a combat sports newsletter in my life, but the good folks at MMA Draw publish an excellent one on UFC, MMA, pro wrestling, boxing and more, analyzing both the sports themselves and the politics, economics and antitrust issues that impact them. Check the article and their newsletter out! Paramount+ Has Its Best Sporting Event of All Time…But Was It Worth It? Before we look at the UFC Freedom 250 data in particular, let’s talk about what we can’t say. Namely, let’s start with the lack of comparisons. First off, I’d love to put a chart out comparing this fight to past UFC fights on Paramount+…but we don’t have the data. This is the first time we’ve gotten Nielsen data about a Paramount+ UFC fight. As far as I can tell, Paramount provided data for the first fight, but it was a proprietary datecdote (saying it had “an average minute audience” of 5 million “views”) and then, for two fights, we got the linear viewership numbers when they aired on CBS, but no streaming data. Everything else was crickets. We also can’t compare this fight to other fights/combat sports on streaming, in particular the MMA and boxing, because Netflix also didn’t use Nielsen to track those events, opting for TVision and VideoAmp, respectively. (This isn’t Paramount’s fault, but does still suck.) We also can’t compare to UFC’s fights that used to be on ESPN+, since we don’t have any data for that, plus Disney+ didn’t have marquee fights. The comparisons would not be apples-to-apples. Can we compare to past Pay-Per-View fights? Absolutely not. The comparisons would absolutely NOT be apples-to-apples. That didn’t stop Paramount+, though, who bragged that their UFC events have reached drastically more people than past PPV fights. Duh. Sorry, but I gotta make this point again. A basic tenet of economics is that the cheaper something becomes, the more people consume or buy it. That’s Econ 101. (Sometimes pundits call things “Econ 101” that are actually like Econ 210 or even PhD-level economics, but no, this is really like first or second class basic economics.) Yet I still see one analytics firm consistently say that more people watch films on streaming than PVOD proves streaming which means that the streaming window is more valuable than the PVOD window. No, it’s not! Same thing here. Pay-Per-View events back in the day could be really, really, really expensive! So whole groups of people pitched in to buy them. That increased the perceived value of, say, the Mike Tyson fight. Or a UFC numbered event. So yes, the fact that Paramount+ makes numbered UFC fights essentially “free” if you’re already a Paramount+ member means consumption will go up. Obviously. Same for Netflix and their boxing matches. They’re talking about fights that used to cost consumers, in some cases, $50 in 1996…which is over $100 in today’s dollars. Over 1.6 million people paid that to watch the Tyson-Holyfield fight! Again, streaming is essentially “free”. Or $10 to $20, depending on what streamer we’re talking about and what tier you’re on. No wonder more people are “watching”. (Plus, Nielsen’s out-of-home viewing also helps these numbers.) UFC Freedom 250 Did Well…But I Have A Lot of Worries So what can we compare the fights to? Well, the good news is Nielsen put out that the fight averaged 7.0 million viewers for UFC Freedom 250, which is a solid number for a fight. We also know the length, at roughly 4 and a half hours. (I saw different run times, but this seems to be the consensus considering it started at 8 pm, had a delay and then finished after midnight on the East Coast. If you assume a shorter run time, then yes, the total hours viewed would go down.) That means I have the two numbers needed to add this to my Nielsen database. And then…I can compare this viewership to the NFL: And, uh, not great. But also within striking distance, mainly because the runtime for this event was so long. I’d also add that this event had viewership equal to a regular season NFL game on streaming, but if anything, it was more comparable to an NFL playoff or Super Bowl-esque event. And you can compare viewership to the top football games on broadcast, cable and streaming, and it’s not impressive at all: We can also compare it to other sports that week, including the NBA Finals and start of the World Cup: Again, not great. The NBA generated roughly four times as many average viewers each game for its NBA Finals. The World Cup has similarly big numbers. Also, that’s just a tiny fraction of the 25 most watched sporting events each week. The NBA, NHL and FIFA World Cup had many, many more games racking up hours. We could also compare this to other streaming programs to get an idea of “is this a good investment?” and here is how it ranks compared to other top Paramount+ programs: The worry here? Well, unlike scripted programming, which has rewatchability, older fights/sporting events have very little library value. Very, very few people are rewatching these fights, especially years from now. Paramount has also released datecdotes bragging about their subscriber numbers. Earlier this year, they claimed that the first UFC fight on Paramount+ brought in 1 million subscribers. Then, in their quarterly earnings report, they only ended up with 700K subs. Not great! They claimed they dropped lower-value international subscribers, but that’s why I tend to discount subscriber additions when they’re leaked to the press.1 I expect we may see a bump again for UFC Freedom 250, but I’d caution using subscriber growth so soon after these events to judge the success, since new subs with high churn (see Peacock) aren’t great either. Also, analysts often want to attribute all subscriber growth to their favorite/pet show, and that just doesn’t make sense. The biggest caveat for UFC Freedom 250 and Paramount’s very first UFC marquee event is that these could be high watermarks for the sport. UFC Freedom 250 had an incredible amount of earned media coverage compared to most UFC fights. I mean, it had wall-to-wall national news coverage in the lead up to the event. (The first fight also had a lot of promotion from Paramount since it was first.) Other fights could reach this bar—say the Conor McGregor return to the Octagon—but they’ll be fewer and far between. Was This Deal Worth It? All to ask: is this Paramount deal worth it? In this case, I think the UFC Freedom 250 numbers are more distracting than helpful. This fight did well and compares well to other top sporting events. But we know that the first marquee event was at least a third smaller, if Paramount’s own data is to be believed. And it’s likely the other fights are much, much, much smaller. And then you get to the paycheck that Paramount-Skydance paid. FIFA’s World Cup cost about the same for Fox, but clearly generated multiples more total viewership. (Though it’s only every four years.) The NBA is much more expensive, but until the playoffs, they likely didn’t pay for itself. Even still, Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon Prime Video likely overpaid. So, in that context, the NBA may be an overpay that makes the UFC look not so bad. But two overpays don’t make an underpay, to paraphrase the old cliché about wrongs and rights. And looking at UFC Freedom 250 as the likely ceiling of MMA on Paramount+, Paramount-Skydance likely paid too much. Share 1 I would love regular reports on subscriber additions by programs, but as is, it’s mostly leaked or rumored in haphazard ways.
Royals vs Giants July 20 Live Discussion
The AL Central basement-dwelling Royals have a chance to get some wins against a similarly-bad team.
Tick bites, lyme disease on the rise, says health officials
‘Iowa is acting different’: Political expert discusses Democrats’ chances in Iowa
Political expert Charlie Cook, the founder of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Monday he thinks Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand will win Iowa’s gubernatorial election, but the U.S. Senate race between State Rep. Josh Turek and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson may not be as competitive as Democrats might think.
Monitoring the health of NH bats requires a little eavesdropping
A group of bat advocates, including scientists at UNH, NH Fish and Game and volunteers have been working together to monitor the health of the state’s bats.
Louisiana communities are left in the dark on toxic air – and industry helped keep it that way
How lawmakers weakened community air monitoring as industry pushed back against greater scrutiny
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Better Business Bureau: Be on the lookout for communications from the U.S. Census Bureau
Jo Ann Deal with the Better Business Bureau of Monroe joined Good Morning ArkLaMiss to talk about the American Community Survey (ACS).
Science can serve dark as well as light
I’m not sure how many of you are watching “Star City,” Apple TV’s spin-off of its “For All Mankind” program (2019-present), but it’s one of the better sci-fi series I’ve seen in a while, with an impressively dark political message. (Some light spoilers below.) For the uninitiated, “For All Mankind” presented a slightly tweaked history of the U.S. space program in which it was the USSR that landed on the Moon first in 1969, and shortly thereafter put a woman cosmonaut on the lunar surface. This sparks an ongoing space race that, in the original series, yields a lot of benefits for humanity. President Nixon’s insistence on a female astronaut corps to compete with the Soviets boosts the feminist movement of the 1970s and the ERA passes. New fuels generated for the space program create clean and cheap energy around Earth. There are also some darker changes — the USSR is thriving well into the 2000s, there are terrorist counter-technology movements around the globe, laborers on Mars work in nightmarish conditions and organize strikes and riots, etc. the @smotus report is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe That show offers glimpses into the subtle ways this Earth is different. Teddy Kennedy never went to Chappaquidick because he was racing back to Washington to deal with the space program crisis; he gets elected President in 1972. John Lennon survives his early 1980s shooting but Pope John Paul II does not. The Apple Newton succeeded. Pretty much the whole of season 4 is a setup for an Al Gore joke. Again, mostly, the vision that “For All Mankind” presents is a positive one, with technology advancing many human interests. “Star City” goes in a very different direction. This spin-off show is about the same set of events but from the Soviet perspective. As we meet them, the team of scientists and cosmonauts responsible for the lunar landing are still basking in their hero status, but their program is embedded deep in the Soviet security state of the late 1960s. Everyone’s apartment is bugged. Whole teams of clerical staff spend their days transcribing recordings of people’s lives. People in the program, including respected cosmonauts, are regularly arrested. An incredibly menacing Colonel Lyudmilla Raskova (Anna Maxwell Martin) forces confessions and tortures and kills, expressing little more than annoyance in the process. Meanwhile, the space program’s highly respected Chief Designer (Rhys Ifans) has a vision for the program that he knows the government will not approve. He insists that they need to think past the Moon to focus on colonizing the solar system, starting with Venus. (This is a rough parallel to the Americans’ pivot to Mars in the original show.) He essentially builds a secret space program within the space program, calculating that the government will embrace the mission after it has succeeded. (As an aside, I’m not sure why the Venus obsession, as a successful mission can’t produce the biggest public relations payoff: a cosmonaut standing on the surface holding the Soviet flag. Anyone standing on Venus would be immediately crushed by the 92-bar atmosphere and then cremated in the 900°F temperatures. But in a country with no free press perhaps the visual payoff was less valued.) But the overall vision is that the technological advances have only amplified the most fearsome aspects of the Soviet system. The state is paranoid (but not incorrect) about American spies and does monstrous things to protect its secrets. People are terrified to trust each other. Classic banality-of-evil figures order people to harm those they care about; those people comply rather than get shot. Others are forced into criminal behavior to protect loved ones. We’re reminded all the time these days of what happens when a government despises science. It manifests in the defunding of schools, the elevation of fossil fuels as the rest of the world pivots to solar, outbreaks of measles and diarrhea, etc. But “Star City” offers a vision of a bad government that likes science. It’s not encouraging. It’s not yet clear if there will be a season two of this show. But I strongly recommend season one. It’s both thoughtful and gripping. Share
Titans training camp preview: Running backs
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Six AMC theaters showed THE ODYSSEY for more than 85 hours
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Commentary: Hollywood's guaranteed paydays for stars are bad bets now
Rather than making a summer splash, Disney’s live-action "Moana" remake floundered at the box office. Opening with $43 million domestically against a $250 million production budget, the film is already
Commentary: Hollywood's guaranteed paydays for stars are bad bets now
Rather than making a summer splash, Disney’s live-action "Moana" remake floundered at the box office. Opening with $43 million domestically against a $250 million production budget, the film is already
Celtic revive chase for striker Hogh
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Cubs Minor League Wrap: I-Cubs blast Memphis, 13-4
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Braves vs. Rangers series recap: Bats embiggened after Break
June was a bad offensive month for the Braves. The first 12 games of July were a mixed bag: some good outputs, but questionable inputs. Still, it got the Braves to a 6-6 record. Then the All-Star Break came and went, and the Braves started the “second half” with a home series against the Rangers. […]
The Baddest Bad Moon is coming to Warhammer 40,000 AND Total War
Nazdreg's triumphant return
Victor Wembanyama’s World Cup Final Appearance Catch NBA World’s Attention
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🎥 Bad loser? World Cup star completely loses the plot
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FSU WR named 'freshman to watch' by CBS Sports
Florida State freshman wide receiver Jasen Lopez has been named a player to watch by CBS Sports.
Following Messi's lead, Milei bids to separate stadium and state - Live Updates
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I was one click away from paying for Google Photos, then I found this hidden setting
One buried setting undid years of bad backup decisions
More Bad News for Aaron Judge, Yankees
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Hawai‘i comes in first — at being worst state for business
The fix for a bad business climate isn’t more bureaucracy. It’s less. Reducing taxes and regulations help revitalize the economy. If only our lawmakers would embrace those policies more often.
Hawai‘i comes in first — at being worst state for business
The fix for a bad business climate isn’t more bureaucracy. It’s less. Reducing taxes and regulations help revitalize the economy. If only our lawmakers would embrace those policies more often.
Opinion | Double standard over GLP-1 drugs hits women especially hard
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Free Fall 2.0 Puts The Front Office At A Crossroads
Too bad the crossroads seem to overlook a cliff on all sides, but which way do you want to go? This reminds me of a trip to Europe years ago in which Siri instructed, calmly, “turn left”. Only we were driving on a mountain road and for as long as the eye could see a […]
Wisconsin Farm Tech Days highlights grain bin safety, farm history, health screenings, and volunteers
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Can Wisconsin spoil Notre Dame's college football playoff hopes?
The Wisconsin Badgers have a chance to do some serious damage to Notre Dame's college football playoff aspirations.
Yankees share Aaron Judge injury update on broken rib
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How health officials are racing to track foods behind cyclosporiasis outbreak in over 27 states
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What to know about bad air caused by wildfires and how to protect yourself
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Who Should Emerge as the Cowboys’ RB2 Behind Javonte Williams?
Since Ezekiel Elliott left, the Cowboys’ rushing attack has been in a rut. Since 2022, Dallas has started three different running backs: Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle, and their current starter, Javonte Williams. While they haven’t had a bad rushing attack, they have yet to recreate the same success they had with Elliott. Many fans thought […] The post Who Should Emerge as the Cowboys’ RB2 Behind Javonte Williams? appeared first on The Lead.
Claywoman on Medea, Bad Science, and Schadenfreude
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Permanent daylight savings is bad for Americans’ health—here’s what science says could be better
More sunlight in the evenings doesn’t always equate to better health
Permanent daylight savings is bad for Americans’ health—here’s what science says could be better
More sunlight in the evenings doesn’t always equate to better health
Ukraine's Zelenskyy faces political crisis amid Russian attacks
Russian attacks overnight on Ukraine killed at least four civilians and wounded 20, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
Cornelius fountain company says water restrictions are bad for business
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Northeast Wisconsin heads indoors for summer entertainment to avoid wildfire smoke
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Chinese scientists have bad news on having babies in space
Researchers use China’s Tianzhou spacecraft missions since 2017 to study how microgravity and space radiation can affect biology.
Rosie O’Donnell says Michelle Trachtenberg ‘was in pretty bad shape’ before her death
Rosie O’Donnell wishes she ‘could have done more’ for her ‘Harriet the Spy’ costar Michelle Trachtenberg who died at 39 in 2025, but says she was ‘inaccessible’ in her final years.
The health risks of wildfire smoke and air quality
Wildfire smoke and bad air quality are hitting cities due to fires in Canada and Minnesota.
Motorola is bad at Android updates, confusing promises are on full display with latest release
Motorola is pretty bad at software updates, with new Android versions delayed by months and devices often getting the bare...
College football player lost scholarship after stepping away from team to deal with mom’s death
Former Western Kentucky DL Victory Vaka left the team temporarily following his mom's death. Now his career could be over.
Anaheim Ducks reportedly intend to leave Victory+ streaming platform
Victory+ picked a bad Wednesday to have a bad Wednesday. The Ducks are the second team to walk away from the streaming platform within hours, and the exit comes with two years still remaining on Anaheim’s contract. According to a report from Sports Business Journal’s Alex Silverman, the Ducks have notified Victory+ – who has…
Water main break triggers boil water notice, forces business closures in Sumner County town
A boil water notice issued Wednesday by the city of Westmoreland is forcing businesses to close and residents to scramble as officials work to restore safe water service.
Sports Column: Fletcher Mackel explains how & why professional hockey in New Orleans could succeed
Professional Women’s Hockey League (PWHL) in New Orleans serving as the anchor tenant at a newly renovated Municipal Auditorium
Wildfire smoke and bad air quality threatens sports: Yankees, Blue Jays, World Cup Final, Phillies-Mets and more games to watch closely
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US Reimposes Blockade on Iranian Ports, Launches New Strikes
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Current and former tech leaders say the CEO's candid response to the tech giant's disappointing quarter offers a lesson for handling bad news.
Fixing America’s polarization with proportional representation
Presidentialism plus single-member districts is a bad combination that incentivizes leaders to consolidate power by fueling division.
Preliminary ACAP test scores show improving science, stagnant ELA and math scores
The Alabama State Board of Education is sharing preliminary data on spring 2026 test scores for the Alabama Comprehensive Assessment Program (ACAP).
Preliminary ACAP test scores show improving science, stagnant ELA and math scores
The Alabama State Board of Education is sharing preliminary data on spring 2026 test scores for the Alabama Comprehensive Assessment Program (ACAP).
Palmetto Sports Daily: Clemson holds team media day, Gamecocks’ band of brothers
What was said at Clemson’s football media day and an interesting fact about this year’s Gamecocks squad.