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Habit-stacking to reach health and wellness goals

Habit-stacking is a habit formation technique that’s gotten a lot of attention in recent years.

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Apr 26 • 6:38 AM EDT • Health • bostonglobe.com
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Liverpool vs Crystal Palace: Relief and Reality in Chaotic Win

Liverpool Edge Past Crystal Palace as Lola Katz Roberts Dissects “Weirdest” WinLiverpool’s victory over Crystal Palace sparked an immediate and honest reaction on The Gags Tandon Show, where hos...

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Apr 26 • 1:55 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Zack Wheeler’s return gives Phillies exactly what they desperately needed”

The team needed some life... And they got it.

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Apr 25 • 11:51 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Better late than never: slug outburst saves San Diego

FriarWatch: April 25 Edition

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Apr 25 • 3:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Xbox’s weirdest studio is on a roll

Fire up the kiln.

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Apr 25 • 9:00 AM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
From Mother Mary to Foo Fighters: your complete entertainment guide to the week ahead

An idiosyncratic thriller sees Anne Hathaway’s pop icon and Michaela Coel’s fashion designer embark on a psychosexual romance, while Dave Grohl and his boys are back with album number 12

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Apr 25 • 1:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • theguardian.com
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World’s largest movie screen in Clearwater? Council member has questions

Mike Mannino wants to know more about plans for an entertainment complex downtown announced by a company affiliated with the church of Scientology.

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Apr 24 • 4:47 PM EDT • Entertainment • tampabay.com
Michigan Matters: CBS News' Robert Costa talks politics and honoring a few American heroes
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Apr 24 • 2:37 PM EDT • Politics • cbsnews.com
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Gouldsboro aquaculture business selected for blue technology accelerator

Springtide has trained hundreds of seaweed farmers in the U.S., Europe, Australia and Asia. It supplies seaweed seed to industry and research institutions throughout the U.S.

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Apr 24 • 8:28 AM EDT • Business • mainebiz.biz
Newport a 'strong force' for critical Oldham game

Christian Fuchs says belief is strong in his Newport County side, as they face Oldham Athletic on Saturday with the potential to secure League Two survival.

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Apr 24 • 4:14 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Seahawks fans behind Jadarian Price selection at No. 32 overall

Seahawks fans reacted positively in large part to Jadarian Price being selected by Seattle with the No. 32 overall pick in the NFL draft.

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Apr 24 • 12:29 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Lane Johnson's recent workout video is reason for continued optimism

A new workout clip shows the Eagles’ All-Pro tackle still looks like himself, and maybe then some.

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Apr 23 • 3:06 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
‘It’s not just stardust.’ Musicians warn AI could erase artists’ livelihoods

Musicians brought their message straight to Capitol Hill, warning lawmakers that AI threatens artists’ voices, likenesses and livelihoods.

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Apr 22 • 7:25 PM EDT • Entertainment • usatoday.com
ServiceNow CEO downplays impact of Iran war and AI: 'Our business is doing great'

ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott pushed back on concerns about the Iran war and AI disruption risks in an interview with CNBC's Jim Cramer.

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Apr 22 • 6:50 PM EDT • Business • cnbc.com
2026 L&S Academic Staff Teaching Excellence Awards

The Dean of the College of Letters & Science honors outstanding instructional academic staff for their excellence in teaching and mentoring undergraduate…

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Apr 22 • 11:55 AM EDT • Science • ls.wisc.edu
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The year’s weirdest game is hard to explain and even harder to put down

Welcome to Titanium Court.

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Apr 22 • 9:00 AM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
Ilia Topuria goes off on 'dumb as f***' Arman Tsarukyan

Top UFC lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan has made as many headlines for his antics outside of the cage as in it. The 29-year-old has stuck a fan on his walkout to the octagon, head butted an opponent during face-offs, engaged in a post-fight brawl at RAF 6, got thrown off an airplane and ...

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Apr 22 • 2:33 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Health & Wellbeing Capacity Building Series: From Vision to Action

The Health & Wellbeing Capacity Building Series: From Vision to Action is a five-session learning experience designed to help cities strengthen their ability to advance community wellbeing through…

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Apr 21 • 4:04 PM EDT • Health • nlc.org
Entertainment: Obamas say aloha to Netflix

The Obamas are saying aloha to a business partner and splitting with a streaming giant.

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Apr 21 • 12:41 PM EDT • Entertainment • hawaiinewsnow.com
Clemson 2026 NFL Draft Player Preview: Adam Randall

Position: RB Height: 6’3” Weight: 232 40 yd Dash: 4.5 Shuttle Time: Unavailable Vertical Jump: 37” Broad Jump: 10’4” Bench Press: 26 reps College Performance: One of Clemson’s more intriguing players in the draft, Adam Randall started life at Clemson as a WR before converting to RB late in his career. His time as a […]

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Apr 21 • 11:05 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Places in the US everyone should see, according to frequent traveler

As someone who's visited all 50 US states and every major national park, I think everyone should visit places like Northern New Mexico at least once.

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Apr 21 • 9:34 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
Splatoon Raiders hits the Switch 2 in July

A deep cut featuring Deep Cut.

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Apr 21 • 9:10 AM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
Early 2026 fantasy expert consensus rankings: Dallas Cowboys busts

Heading into the 2026 season, here are the biggest Cowboys busts based on early fantasy expert consensus rankings

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Apr 21 • 9:10 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
RFK Jr. is in his influencer era

The real reason Trump’s health secretary is launching a podcast.

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Apr 21 • 6:00 AM EDT • Health • vox.com
Britain Politics

Britain's Minister of State Anna Turley arrives for a cabinet meeting at Downing Street in London, Tuesday, April 21, 2026.(AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

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Apr 21 • 4:38 AM EDT • Politics • journal-news.com
Wisconsin businesses could recoup millions paid in illegal tariffs

Importers that paid tariffs later struck down by the Supreme Court can now apply for refunds.

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Apr 20 • 3:30 PM EDT • Business • wpr.org
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MBA Voices: How London Business School Gave Me The Motivation & Tools To Reimagine My Career

The biggest takeaways from B-school aren't always the lessons you take from the classroom, says one London Business School MBA.

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Apr 20 • 10:06 AM EDT • Business • poetsandquants.com
The Elden Ring movie hits theaters in March 2028

Arise now, ye tarnished.

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Apr 20 • 9:25 AM EDT • Entertainment • theverge.com
Vampire Survivors’ new spinoff switches genres but keeps the good vibes

Vampire Crawlers is a whole new style of game, and it works really well.

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Apr 20 • 9:00 AM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
India and South Korea agree to nearly double trade to $50B by 2030

South Korea and India have agreed to nearly double bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, up from about $27 billion.

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Apr 20 • 5:28 AM EDT • Business • seattletimes.com
Felt lost moving back to my hometown at 30; new activity helped

I struggled to adjust to living in my hometown after spending years abroad. Discovering Brazilian jiu-jitsu helped me build community and confidence.

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Apr 19 • 8:15 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
Plus-size flyers react to Southwest's new seating policy

Southwest's new plus-size policy caused online controversy as passengers shared their experiences on TikTok, and some flyers mourned the old rules.

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Apr 19 • 5:55 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
Surprising Discovery That AI Performs Subliminal Learning And Does So In Mysterious Ways

Newly published research suggests that AI can subliminally learn. This is exciting but also disconcerting. Evil AI could sneakily turn other AI. An AI Insider scoop.

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Apr 19 • 3:15 AM EDT • Technology • forbes.com
2026 NFL mock draft: Commanders trade down after Jeremiyah Love flies off board in top five

Projecting the 2026 NFL Draft's first round with Jeremiyah Love's selection leading to changes.

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Apr 18 • 9:51 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
How Americans really feel about immigration

The messy politics of immigration reform, explained.

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Apr 18 • 7:00 AM EDT • Politics • vox.com
See you out there! | New opportunities in the most unlikely of places

Never in my mind did I think I’d be on the Central Coast covering perfect games and championship-caliber basketball teams throwing up 3-pointers like it was a pickup game.

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Apr 17 • 7:47 PM EDT • Sports • santamariatimes.com
Arc Raiders Players are Disappointed in the New Expedition Changes

Embark Studios has once again announced tweaks to the Arc Raiders Expedition window, and players who have spent months saving millions of credits are feeling left behind.

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Apr 17 • 6:07 PM EDT • Technology • ign.com
‘Glamping’ business owner denounces border wall plans for Big Bend

Billy Bartko traveled some 2,000 miles to Capitol Hill with one message for lawmakers and President Donald Trump: “Listen to the locals and protect our land.”

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Apr 17 • 6:05 PM EDT • Business • borderreport.com
Better Business Bureau warns of storm repair scams ahead of severe weather

The Better Business Bureau warns of storm repair scams following severe weather. Learn red flags to watch for and how to protect yourself from contractor fraud.

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Apr 17 • 2:40 PM EDT • Business • kctv5.com
Over 1,000 Entertainment Figures — Including Gene Simmons and Amy Schumer — Reject Eurovision Israel Boycott

More than 1,000 artists have signed a letter rejecting Israel boycotts and pushing for the country's continued inclusion in the Eurovision Song Contest.

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Apr 17 • 1:48 PM EDT • Entertainment • yahoo.com
Pittsburgh golf cart business ramps up for NFL draft
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Apr 17 • 1:01 PM EDT • Business • cbsnews.com
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Walmart partners with OpenAI: The dawn of agentic commerce

WebFX reports Walmart and OpenAI are launching AI-first shopping, enabling users to buy directly via ChatGPT with personalized recommendations.

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Apr 17 • 7:00 AM EDT • Business • kansascity.com
Jordan Creek renewal project isolates downtown Springfield gallery

Fresh Gallery on Boonville Avenue downtown has seen foot traffic drop drastically since Renew Jordan Creek construction began, hurting local artists.

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Apr 17 • 5:03 AM EDT • Business • news-leader.com
What to know about the Hamilton County commissioner primary debate

A Hamilton County commissioner primary debate featured sparring between three Democratic candidates about public safety and affordable housing.

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Apr 16 • 10:09 PM EDT • Politics • cincinnati.com
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Price war: Apple's 1TB M5 MacBook Pro dips to $1,580

Apple retailers are embroiled in a MacBook Pro price war this Thursday, resulting in the 1TB M5 14-inch model falling to $1,580.

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Apr 16 • 2:05 PM EDT • Technology • appleinsider.com
College football spring game storylines: QB battles, impact transfers, freshmen to watch

Nearly two dozen Power Four programs wrap up spring practices on Saturday

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Apr 16 • 11:01 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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Google launches a Gemini AI app on Mac

Siri who?

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Apr 15 • 2:10 PM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
Greater Wausau Chamber set to host Business EXPO Thursday

The Greater Wausau Chamber of Commerce will host hundreds of exhibitors and thousands of attendees at the organization’s annual Business EXPO on Thursday, April 16.

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Apr 15 • 12:14 PM EDT • Business • wsaw.com
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Pokémon Go Fans Use Government Maps to Hunt Snakes

Pokémon Go fans are wrestling with U.S. government geographic data to find a newly-released creature: Silicobra, the sand snake Pokémon.

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Apr 15 • 10:49 AM EDT • Technology • ign.com
I had a health crisis at 46 — it forced me to change everything

Sydney Sajadi, 46, says a hysterectomy and severe burnout pushed her to overhaul her health and rethink her high-stress career.

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Apr 15 • 10:25 AM EDT • Health • businessinsider.com
🙂 Positive (50%)
How Meta’s little-known chip business fits in with Zuckerberg’s ‘superintelligence’ ambitions

Taking a page from Google’s and Amazon’s books, Meta is racing to vertically integrate its AI infrastructure with its Broadcom deal.

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Apr 15 • 10:12 AM EDT • Business • marketwatch.com
LPD investigating overnight burglary of adult entertainment store

Lincoln Police are investigating a burglary that happened early Wednesday morning at an adult entertainment store.

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Apr 15 • 7:55 AM EDT • Entertainment • 1011now.com
Trump phone gets new look, release date still unclear

There's no information on the website about when the phone will be released, and its "Made in the USA" claims have been further watered down.

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Apr 15 • 5:11 AM EDT • Technology • businessinsider.com
Ireland Contracting Nightly Sports Call: April 14, 2026
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Apr 14 • 10:43 PM EDT • Sports • cbsnews.com
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Microsoft’s finally giving up on its massive Surface Hub touchscreen displays

The Surface Hub 3 will be the last one.

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Apr 14 • 6:56 PM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
WATCH LIVE: CFTC chairman testifies before House panel amid scrutiny of prediction markets
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Apr 14 • 3:36 PM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
Google adds AI Skills to Chrome to help you save favorite workflows

Google is adding “Skills” to Chrome, letting users save and reuse AI prompts across websites. The feature builds on Gemini’s browser integration.

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Apr 14 • 1:00 PM EDT • Technology • techcrunch.com
GoPro goes bigger and pro-er with support for Micro Four Thirds lenses

Larger sensors, still pretty small cameras.

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Apr 14 • 9:00 AM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
Bloodborne is being turned into an R-rated animated film

Return to Yharnam.

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Apr 14 • 8:35 AM EDT • Entertainment • theverge.com
What trainers actually think about the 12-3-30 workout

Have we finally unlocked exercise’s biggest secret? Or is this yet another lie perpetrated Big Treadmill?

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Apr 14 • 8:15 AM EDT • Technology • vox.com
City of Eufaula looking for input from local business owners

The City of Eufaula is seeking input from local business owners and operators.

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Apr 14 • 7:56 AM EDT • Business • fox23.com
Jan-Werner Müller awarded University professorship, reflects on democracy and academic freedom

Jan-Werner Müller, scholar of democratic theory and the history of political thought, was named Class of 1943 University Professor of Politics. He sat down with the ‘Prince’ to discuss his research, teaching, the role of political theory, and concerns about student engagement and academic freedom on campus.

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Apr 14 • 2:18 AM EDT • Politics • dailyprincetonian.com
Rochester resident, business team up to feed TSA workers amid partial shutdown

The Med City is seeing community members lend a hand to those in need, one boxed lunch at a time.

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Apr 13 • 6:45 PM EDT • Business • kttc.com
Blurry iPhone Text Picture Problem: Is There An Easy Solution I'm Missing?

I use my iPhone for all my pictures of airlines and hotels. It serves me well, with one major issue... is there something I'm missing?

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Apr 13 • 6:05 PM EDT • Technology • onemileatatime.com
Pragmata is just OK, but it could’ve been great

A handful of new ideas and plenty of familiar ones.

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Apr 13 • 11:00 AM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
USC Brain Health Center could be hub for Alzheimer’s treatment, new tech for mental health

A new $30 million Brain Health Center at USC in Columbia will be a magnet for advanced diagnosis and treatment of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia but also deploy new technology for mental health.

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Apr 13 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • postandcourier.com
PureTech Health: Notice of Results

BOSTON, April 13, 2026--PureTech Health: Notice of Results

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Apr 13 • 2:05 AM EDT • Health • finance.yahoo.com
European chemical firms, hit hard by Iran war, to report falling Q1 earnings

European chemical companies are expected to report weaker first-quarter results, shedding light on how deep the impact from the war in the Middle East has been on an industry largely seen ​as one of the most exposed to it.

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Apr 13 • 2:04 AM EDT • Business • reuters.com
Rockstar Games says hack will have ‘no impact’

Player data isn’t suspected to be compromised.

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Apr 12 • 1:02 PM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
Science 4 Everyone: Why aren't your plants growing back after the winter?

Are your plants not growing after winter? You aren't alone. Storm Team4 meteorologist Ryan Miller explains why winter conditions affect your plants.

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Apr 12 • 12:01 PM EDT • Science • nbcwashington.com
My brother doesn't blink. The internet noticed — and fell in love.

"Blink, Brother, blink." The story behind Jan Risher's younger brother, Brother Blink — the man, the merchandise and a moment they shared as children— with speakers turned toward a front yard full of loblolly pines.

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Apr 12 • 8:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • nola.com
Crash Ends Heim’s $500K Bid at Bristol

Multi-truck incident with 70 laps left derails Triple Truck Challenge sweep

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Apr 11 • 1:44 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
“AI polls” are fake polls

A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.

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Apr 11 • 11:38 AM EDT • Technology • natesilver.net
U.S.-Iran direct talks begin in Pakistan as war's fragile ceasefire holds

Face-to-face negotiations have begun between the United States and Iran in Pakistan, days after a fragile, two-week ceasefire was announced.

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Apr 11 • 11:27 AM EDT • Politics • latimes.com
Pokémon Champions is off to a rough start

The bugs are already getting fixed, but it’s still got a long road ahead.

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Apr 11 • 11:00 AM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
2026 NFL Draft Profile: Texas tight end Jack Endries

Texas tight end Jack Endries is a Day 3 prospect the Denver Broncos should consider in the 2026 NFL Draft.

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Apr 11 • 10:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
These 6 airlines offer beds in economy; tickets can cost up to $2,600

United got the coach bed idea from Air New Zealand, which debuted its famous "Skycouch" in 2011. A few other airlines have adopted their own version.

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Apr 11 • 4:03 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
🙂 Positive (50%)
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg Final Face-Offs

The vacant light heavyweight title is on the line in the UFC 327 main event on Saturday. Former titleholder Jiri Prochazka faces No. 3 ranked Carlos Ulberg in the featured fight at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. During Friday's UFC 327 Ceremonial Weigh-In, the athletes faced off ...

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Apr 10 • 8:47 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
😐 Neutral (8%)
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50%
wow
50%
Rachael Rollins claps back at rivals over her Suffolk DA bid

Rollins took out papers earlier this week, signaling her intention to run to regain her old job as Suffolk district attorney.

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Apr 10 • 8:18 PM EDT • Politics • bostonglobe.com
BIA Business Perspective: Legislative crossover brings business priorities into focus

By Natch Greyes

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Apr 10 • 8:00 PM EDT • Business • unionleader.com
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😐 Neutral (10%)
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55%
love
45%
Rome Health recognized by Newsweek magazine

Rome Health has been recognized by Newsweek magazine as one of "America's Greatest Midsize Workplaces in Health Care" for 2026, according to hospital officials.

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Apr 10 • 7:00 PM EDT • Entertainment • romesentinel.com
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50%
ahah
25%
sad
25%
Amazon Luna axes third-party game purchases

Third-party game purchases and stores will disappear from Amazon Luna in June.

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Apr 10 • 1:31 PM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
Injecting humour into science is risky

Letters: Roger Downie notes that jokes can be lost in translation, while Tim Jones remembers a feeble attempt at humour, and Denis McCullough recalls a few physics gags

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Apr 10 • 12:42 PM EDT • Science • theguardian.com
😐 Neutral (5%)
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60%
wow
40%
Missouri sports betting is now live: See the best sports betting apps to snag over $3,000 in launch promos

Missouri sports betting is now live, and the top Missouri sportsbooks are offering Missouri sports betting promos

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Apr 10 • 10:36 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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49%
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27%
love
24%
Ohio wants to ban mobile sports betting. It's about time

Ohio’s legalization of sports betting has turned a game into something with much higher stakes.

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Apr 10 • 6:00 AM EDT • Sports • beaconjournal.com
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wow
67%
ahah
33%
Castlevania headlines a big list of exciting indie game reveals

There was a lot of indie game news.

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Apr 9 • 1:13 PM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
Local college sports recap

Rob Krone has highlights from local college sports action from Wednesday.

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Apr 9 • 6:53 AM EDT • Sports • wwnytv.com
Peoria double homicide highlights mental health system failures, advocates say

Prosecutors say Jonathan Turk’s parents tried multiple times to get him mental health treatment before their deaths.

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Apr 8 • 9:46 PM EDT • Health • azfamily.com
Former Fort Bragg employee charged with leaking classified information to journalist

A North Carolina woman has been charged with sharing classified defense information to a journalist following her work as a civilian operational support technician at Fort Bragg, a large US Army base in the state.

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Apr 8 • 5:45 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Natch Greyes | Business & Industry Association

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Apr 8 • 4:42 PM EDT • Business • unionleader.com
Poulsbo’s Away With Words offers gifts for body and mind

Poulsbo's Away With Words is easier to get to than one might think and offers a unique blend of books and handmade bath and body products.

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Apr 8 • 9:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • yakimaherald.com
Xbox’s new era needs games like Forza Horizon 6

Launching next month.

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Apr 8 • 9:00 AM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
Warburton 'knocking on door' for World title shot

Gerome Warburton stunned former British champion Nathan Heaney with an unanimous win to secure the WBA Continental Middleweight title in March.

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Apr 8 • 1:19 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Democratic House Leader Jeffries: ‘A two-week ceasefire isn’t sufficient’
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Apr 7 • 11:08 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Pro sports owner eyes north Evanston for youth practice facility

The vacant Office Depot building at 2722 Green Bay Rd. could become a year-round site for youth sports, as a wealthy North Shore family with stakes in

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Apr 7 • 6:19 PM EDT • Sports • evanstonroundtable.com
Nothing’s noise-canceling CMF Buds 2A are down to $19.99 for the rest of today

The earbuds check a lot of boxes for the price.

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Apr 7 • 6:16 PM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
Vertical browser tabs are better and you should use them

Trust me, this is a better way to Chrome.

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Apr 7 • 1:00 PM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
Petrol prices bringing the cost - and politics - of Trump's war to regular Americans
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Apr 7 • 4:08 AM EDT • Politics • news.sky.com
Report: Apple's foldable iPhone may be delayed due to engineering snags

Apple has reportedly run into "more issues than expected" with its foldable iPhone that may delay its release.

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Apr 7 • 3:38 AM EDT • Technology • engadget.com
Google has launched a free, offline AI dictation app that will automatically polish your speech.

Google AI Edge Eloquent is a new live AI transcription app that requires no subscription and has no usage limits. When you finish speaking, it will also filter out filler words like “um.” It’s currently only on iOS, but Google plans to bring the app to Android and macOS. [Image: https://platform.theverge.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/google-ai-edge-eloquent-app-store.jpg?quality=90&strip=all]

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Apr 6 • 5:57 PM EDT • Technology • theverge.com