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Engrams Embedding Entendre: Codesign for Efficient DRAM/SSD Offloading
Engram extends standard token embeddings with learned multi-token lookups. Recurring local patterns retrieve vectors directly, reducing the need to reconstruct them through attention and feed-forward layers. With Engram model architecture optimization, it allows for lower HBM capacity to be needed for models at the same quality. This does not mean there won’t be an insane demand for HBM but it just means that model architecture will continue to innovate around constraints. This model architecture design is naturally codesigned for parameter offloading: each token accesses a few embedding rows whose addresses depend on token IDs, not hidden states. The runtime can prefetch those rows from host DRAM while earlier layers compute, keeping the table outside HBM without transferring entire weight matrices. Our Memory model contains our latest estimates of quarter by quarter HBM, DRAM, & NAND supply and demand. Offloading frees HBM for model weights and KV cache, potentially supporting larger batches or more concurrent sessions. When DRAM becomes the next constraint, NVMe offers another tier. Recommendation systems already cache frequently or recently accessed embedding rows in faster memory while backing colder rows with SSDs. After NVIDIA roadmap had to change due to massively despec’ing Rubin Ultra from 1024GB to now ~200GB of HBM per chip, model architecture optimizations like emgram maybe helpful. Our DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash configuration uses roughly 189 GiB of memory for Engram. We replace it with a memory-mapped (mmap) file and measure serving performance with offload to SSD. Later on in our report, we will show our Engram offloading experiments along with the official InferenceX agentic inference serving results on Engram models like DeepSeekv4.1 Flash across all 6 NVIDIA GPU SKUs along with MI355X. Unsurprisingly, the CUDA Moat is still mogging MI355X on the ultra popular DeepSeekV4.1 Flash model. We also show how even on high capacity HBM SKUs, offloading emgrams to DRAM could result in even better performance for most of the pareto than keeping the emgram in HBM. Our benchmark has been widely reproduced, validated and/or supported by almost every major buyer of compute from Google Cloud to Microsoft Azure to Oracle, to Meta and many more. Furthermore, it has the support of the ML community including from vLLM, LMCache, SGLang, PyTorch, Huggingface and the support of major labs like OpenAI, MiniMax, ZAI, Qwen, Moonshot Kimi, etc. Star the InferenceX GitHub repository if you find the open-source benchmark and data useful!. InferenceX is the only inference benchmark in the world to have TPUv7, Jalapeño, Nvidia Rubin NVL72, AMD, and soon, SambaNova and Trainium. Due to how realistic AgentX scenario is to real world agentic inference workloads, AMD has committed to collaborating on MI455X UALoE72 too. DeepSeek did not release the original paper’s two trained Engram models. We replicated its setup on fineweb-edu using the released code and training hyperparameters, at an estimated 6E18 FLOPs per run. We observed the same U-shape scaling: Engram improved performance over pure MoE baselines. We also reproduced DeepSeek’s results, where earlier-layer representations with Engram resembled those of later layers. Like the original Engram paper, it is possible to probe Engram’s gate scores to see what n-grams DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash makes the most use of. Our gate scan finds names, code fragments, relational phrasing, and boilerplate. These examples prioritize interesting-ness over gate strength. One unexpected result was Wright : Ace Attorney. These examples suggest learned memory optimizes the training objective, not a judgment of which facts deserve storage. Licenses, bibliography fragments, API scaffolding, and website furniture can provide prediction shortcuts, so the value of additional Engram capacity may depend on what survives data preparation. This does not show that table capacity is “wasted”: the evaluation-corpus scan establishes neither training exposure nor the capacity occupied by each category. For offloading, strong gates do not identify cache-hot rows. Low gates do not automatically save reads either: computing the gate requires the retrieved key and undoes the performance gain of a fused kernel. Skipping reads would require a separate usefulness predictor before retrieval. In the original paper’s inference-time ablation, factual-knowledge benchmarks retained just 29–44% of their original performance, while reading comprehension retained 81–93%. This is due to the training–inference mismatch. The resulting degradation therefore measures this trained model’s dependence on Engram, not the performance difference between models trained with and without it. In our ablations, suppressing Engram worsens token likelihood across all evaluated domains, especially encyclopedia text and several code corpora. Surprisingly, GSM8K accuracy stays within measured run-to-run variation and removing Engram has no effect. Engram is not a detachable dictionary beside an unchanged MoE. Removing it changes downstream features and expert selection. We tested whether rerouting hurts or compensates by holding tokens fixed in a teacher-forced experiment on CRUXEval, a code-reasoning benchmark of small Python functions where the model predicts a function’s output from its code and an input, and scoring the reference answer. Removing Engram raised answer loss from 0.2848 to 0.3093 bits/token. Forcing the ablated model to use the original Engram-on expert choices made it worse still, at 0.3375 bits/token. Rerouting partially compensates for the missing memory. Memory features and expert selection work together, rather than following a clean “memory stores facts; experts reason” division. On the same CRUXeval, removing Engram during either phase reduced accuracy and increased generated tokens; removing it throughout produced the largest changes. Keeping Engram for prefill leads to more correct answers than keeping for decode likely due to semantically richer KV cache transferred to decode workers, allowing it to mitigate some of the performance loss. Engram’s table is large, but each lookup is small. DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash requests 24 rows at each of two Engram layers, about 12.4 KiB per processed token position across the model, or 3.1 KiB per GPU when split across four GPUs. Currently as of Day 7 since Model Release, MI355X is still 2-4x worse performance per dollar compared to B200 even when normalized by Mi355X’s lower TCO. Our full total cost of ownership breakdown comes from our AI Cloud TCO Model along with monthly market surveys of over 100+ gpu clouds & gpu cloud customers. On the Day 0 release of DeepSeekv4.1 Flash, NVIDIA vLLM works out of the box with zero issues across all 6 SKUs: H100, H200, B200, B300, GB200, GB300! This was thanks to the amazing work by the NVIDIA & Interact teams! In comparison, AMD vLLM did not work on day 0 for DeepSeekv4.1 Flash.Source: SemiAnalysis InferenceX AMD’s vLLM documentation points to using vllm/vllm-openai-rocm:deepseekv41-flash-0909, but from hour 0 of the model release to hour 23, AMD has not publicly released the image. AMD claims, “SPEED IS THE MOAT,” yet it has still not released it by the 23rd hour. We wish that, going forward, the AMD team has a better process for hour 0 model releases. Eventually when they did publicly release for “day 0” image support, performance-wise, it is currently up to 14.8x worse perf per dollar than H200 and up to 42x worse perf per dollar than B200/B300. The power of the CUDA MOAT is NVIDIA’s collaboration with its massive 6 million-developer community ecosystem including most of the vLLM & SGLang & Tokenspeed maintainers which means that CUDA is optimized on day 0. Overall, AMD did make significant improvements but the performance per dollar is still currently 2-4x worse than B200. AgentX Engram DRAM Offloading Improving Performance The HBM and DRAM offload use the same GPU kernel to select and dequantize rows. With HBM, it reads GPU memory; with Unified Virtual Addressing (UVA), it reads pinned host memory directly. Both support full decode graphs. Moving the table into HBM accelerates only the sparse lookup, leaving decoder computation and communication unchanged, resulting in little overall benefit while consuming memory otherwise available to KV cache. Another benefit of Engram offloaded to DRAM which means you can reduce the communication overhead by using less HBM GPUs per replica. For example, when enabling Engram offloading on B300, we are able to switch from TP4 to now TP2 which improves the pareto curve by up to 1.6x. When iso-model quality, less HBM is required as the engrams could be offloaded to host DRAM. Thus HBM bandwidth matters way more than HBM capacity. For inference workloads where memory bandwidth matters the most, 4-hi HBM provides the best $/bandwidth and therefore lowest cost per token. If China continues to make more and more revolutionary model architecture innovations, soon it could potentially 0Hi HBM stacks. [ ](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/long-live-the-short-king-why-4-hi) [ Long Live the Short King: Why 4-hi HBM Wins ](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/long-live-the-short-king-why-4-hi) Myron Xie, Bryan Shan, and 3 others · Sep 13 [ Read full story ](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/long-live-the-short-king-why-4-hi) Moreover, on B300 and week-0 stack, moving the Engram table back to HBM did not improve results and stay within run-to-run variance. This is a result of the work optimizing DRAM offload, such as async, and overlap. SSD Offloading On B200, we created a unoptimized vLLM fork and stored the Engram tables in memory-mapped files on local SSDs. File backing lets the OS reclaim table pages when other applications need RAM. Pages already cached in memory can be served without reading the SSD again. Furthermore, note that we were unable to turn on GDS The unoptimized SSD implementation changes how rows reach the GPU. It copies row IDs to the CPU, deduplicates them, gathers the requested rows into pinned buffers, copies those rows back to the GPU and dequantizes them. This work runs between segments of the GPU execution graph. Native UVA performs row selection and dequantization directly on the GPU, avoiding the CPU round trip. A warm filesystem cache removes physical SSD reads, but leaves the coordination, row gathering and transfers. This is why a file already cached in RAM can still perform worse than a pinned DRAM table. The comparison measures the whole serving path; it does not separate the time spent on each of these operations. B200 DRAM dominates both measured SSD serving curves in total tokens per dollar and P90 interactivity. Near 125 tokens/s/user, DRAM delivers 121 million total tokens per dollar versus 52 million for SSD. For production serving, SSD offloading is likely not worth the tradeoff. On the B200 configurations we measured, SSD offloading loses on both measures: every observed SSD point has a DRAM alternative that delivers higher P90 interactivity and more total tokens per dollar. The only points where Cheaper storage does not automatically produce a cheaper inference service. Moving Engram to SSD leaves the same four expensive GPUs and the rest of the server in place. Reclaiming RAM only creates an economic benefit if it enables a cheaper server configuration or additional useful capacity. The current unoptimized path provides neither benefit, and the filesystem cache still consumes RAM when table pages are resident. Next we will look at the mechanisms and specific implementation of ngrams from DeepSeekv4.1 Flash, LongCat, Qwen3.8 Flash Next.
Biz.ability: Two Workshops for Entrepreneurs on Friday, Oct. 16
City of Round Rock - Biz.ability: Two Workshops for Entrepreneurs on Friday, Oct. 16
City Blue Imaging named to Historic Business Preservation Registry
City Blue Imaging in Rochester was inducted into the New York State Historic Business Preservation Registry for its century-long community impact.
Chris Rock looked to friend Adam Sandler to figure out move from comedy to drama
Chris Rock looked to friend Adam Sandler to figure out move from comedy to drama
Diamondbacks lose further ground on off day
Diamondbacks News (San Diego Union-Tribune) Padres rout Rockies, add to lead in playoff race The Padres came down from the mountains with the margin they need after winning on Thursday by a large margin. With a 9-2 victory over the Rockies, the Padres increased their lead in the race for the final National League playoff […]
Duncan Sheik, Tony Award-winning composer, dies at 56
Duncan Sheik attends 'The Broadway Legacy Foundation Launch' at the Broadway Museum on November 11, 2025 in New York City. (Santiago Felipe/Getty Images)Duncan Sheik, the Tony Award-winning composer behind Spring Awakening and more, has died, according to his Instagram. He was 56.The Friday morning Instagram post said the "father, husband, son, brother, and friend" died on Thursday night "surrounded by love."A message shared on Sheik's Instagram earlier this week by his family said he was "receiving medical care" and was "in critical but stable condition.""The world has a lost a singular talent, and deeply influential voice in music and theater," Friday's statement said. "From his Grammy-nominated hit “Barely Breathing” to his groundbreaking, Tony and Grammy Award-winning work on Spring Awakening, Duncan’s artistry touched many and leaves an indelible mark on the cultural landscape."Born on Nov. 18, 1969, in Montclair, New Jersey, Sheik rose to fame in 1996 when he released his self-titled debut album, which included his hit song, "Barely Breathing."The song peaked at No. 16 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart and earned him a Grammy nomination for best male pop vocal performance.Following his debut album, he released Humming in 1998, Phantom Moon in 2001 and Daylight in 2002.While "Barely Breathing" established Sheik as a singer-songwriter, his career later expanded into musical theater, where he found success as a composer.Sheik collaborated with lyricist Steven Sater and composed the music for Spring Awakening, which opened on Broadway in 2006.He told Broadcast Music, Inc. in 2015 that around the time he was making the music for Spring Awakening, he wasn't "a huge fan" of music that was happening on Broadway and he wanted to make the music for an audience "beyond the normal crowd that would go to a Broadway musical."The rock musical, based on Frank Wedekind's 1891 play and starring Jonathan Groff, Lea Michele, John Gallagher and Skylar Astin, became a major success. It won eight Tony Awards in 2007, including best musical, best original score and best orchestrations.He went on to compose music for several other stage productions, including American Psycho and Because of Winn-Dixie. He also collaborated with Sater again on Alice by Heart and The Secret Life of Bees.In his interview with Broadcast Music, Inc., he added that working on musical theater has "helped broaden my palette."Sheik went on to release several more albums throughout his career, including White Limousine, Whisper House, Covers 80s, Legerdemain and Claptrap.In May, it was announced that Sheik's new musical, Memoirs of Amorous Gentlemen, would make its off-Broadway debut this fall. The musical is based on Moyoco Anno's manga graphic novel of the same name.An off-Broadway revival of Spring Awakening is also set to open this fall. Copyright © 2026, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
Kremlin orders businesses seized
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The Kremlin has ordered the Russian businesses of Swiss-based food and beverage company Nestle and French retailer Auchan placed in temporary administration, procedure that previously has led to the forced sale of Western businesses to Russian owners at knockdown prices.
Nazareth launches master’s program for women’s health nurse practitioners
Nazareth University introduces a hybrid master’s program for women’s health nurse practitioners, addressing regional demand for advanced practice nurses in Rochester.
Kremlin orders Russia businesses of Nestle, Auchan seized
The Kremlin ordered the Russian businesses of Swiss-based food and beverage company Nestle and French retailer Auchan placed in temporary administration, in a procedure that previously has led to the sale of Western businesses at knockdown prices.
Kremlin orders businesses seized
The Kremlin ordered the Russian businesses of Swiss-based food and beverage company Nestle and French retailer Auchan placed in temporary administration, in a procedure that previously has led to the sale of Western businesses at knockdown prices.
Health-ISAC sets nine-domain MedTech cybersecurity baseline to guide medical device procurement, deployment
Health-ISAC sets nine-domain MedTech cybersecurity baseline to guide medical device procurement, deployment and risk management
Georgia Woman Sentenced in $158,000 Business Email Fraud Scheme
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Black moms and pregnant women forced out of their homes in metro Detroit face health and safety threats
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Political consultant says Wilson's rocky start is more than growing pains
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The Rockefeller University » Why high levels of the amino acid cysteine are toxic to cells
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Scientists discover cells that cheat death and rebuild damaged tissue
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Podiatrist Reveals the No. 1 Exercise to Do Daily to Ease Plantar Fasciitis Pain
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AI Won’t Fix a Business That Wasn’t Working Before AI
Technology cannot compensate for unclear processes, weak accountability, or a team that does not know what good performance looks like.
New GTA 5 Leak Suggests Rockstar Had Ambitious, City-Sized DLC Plans That Were Ultimately Scrapped
GTA 5 has suffered a new leak that suggests Rockstar Games had ambitious, city-sized DLC plans for the game.
The Next Chapter: The unseen cost at the pump
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Colorado science teacher hopes his T. rex trackway discovery fuels ferocious passion for learning - WSVN 7News | Miami News, Weather, Sports
NORTHGLENN, Colorado (KCNC) — A remarkable discovery was recently made by a rather unlikely person.“I’m still like in this dream that I’m going to wakeRead More
Logan Health Nurses Ratify New Contract with Immediate 18% Raise
Unionized nurses at Logan Health in Kalispell announced a new approved contract with the hospital last week, marking their biggest to date, said Donna Nelson, a registered nurse and union delegate. Nurses ratified their first contract with SEIU Healthcare 1199NW representing them in 2021, a process that took two years and included a three-day strike […]
Her Black dad couldn't go on a Capitol trip. She could be a US senator
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‘Swagger on a trillion’: The booming business of styling NFL players
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Alabama withdraws objections to federal marijuana rescheduling
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Désiré Doué handed PSG contract extension offer
Paris Saint-Germain are in the process of tying down their key players to new contracts, and Désiré Doué is the latest to receive an extension proposal from the European champions, as per a report ...
To err is human, to forgive takes work: what science and therapy reveal about truly letting go
Family gatherings can reopen old wounds, but research shows resentment can affect both mind and body; psychotherapist Edna Arbel explains why forgiveness cannot be forced and how processing pain, setting boundaries and therapy can help us truly let go
Controversy, Secrecy And Suffering After Year One Of The America First Global Health Strategy
Country controversies, secret terms, opaque procurement, and massive unspent Congressional funds have characterised the first year of the America First Global
Amendment 86 will head off ‘redistricting war’
In November, Coloradans can pass Amendment 86, which protects the citizen-led-and-drawn mapmaking process by requiring any congressional redistricting map drawn mid-decade to be approved by the independent commission and the Colorado Supreme Court and by prohibiting any map drawn to purposefully favor one political party. This amendment is personal because five years ago I was […]
Fiji declares an HIV emergency and expands testing as cases surge
Officials said one in every 60 adults in the South Pacific island nation has HIV, compared with one in 167 five years ago. Among pregnant women, one in every 50 has HIV.
Potential Trade Sends Kyrie Irving to the Houston Rockets
Kyrie Irving might be reuniting with Kevin Durant. Let's look at the pros and cons
Dr. Jeff Bird: The Innovation Connector Fuels Business Growth and Entrepreneurship
By Dr. Jeff Bird— MUNCIE, IN—The Innovation Connector plays a vital role in supporting business and entrepreneurial endeavors in Muncie and East Central Indiana. Its mission and vision are to support and assist new entrepreneurs with truly unique business ideas to turn their dreams into reality.
Brock Bowers remains sidelined Thursday
Las Vegas Raiders TE Brock Bowers misses practice with knee injury
Kentucky enters final planning stages of on-campus entertainment district
The University of Kentucky’s plans to move forward with its on-campus Sports Adjacent Entertainment District are not only full-go—they’re approaching the final planning stages before construction begins. UK President Eli Capilouto, AD and Champions Blue CEO J Batt and JMI President Paul Archey all updated the progress of the entertainment district at the Champions Blue Board of Governors meeting in Louisville. That came with a confirmation that the school is now in phase three of planning, with only a final request for proposal and final executive summary separating the school from breaking ground. This ongoing process has included four steering […]
‘Seismic shift’: Todd Blanche’s political appearances shatter another DOJ norm
Justice Department veterans say the attorney general’s recent political activities fuel the appearance of a lack of independence from the White House.
Melanie Griffith, 69, rocks black swimsuit and shows off impressive yoga pose during 'health reset'
Golden Knights open camp with 'unfinished business' after 2 wins short of the Cup
Life is seldom dull around the Golden Knights, and that was certainly the case at the end of last season when Vegas fired its championship coach, hired another title-winning coach and then moved on to a third after an unlikely Stanley Cup Final run. What truly matters to the Golden Knights is not so much the process, but the end. “You don’t forget coming two games short of winning the Stanley Cup,” center Jack Eichel said Thursday on the first day of training camp.
Chris Brown speaks up after politician walks back public recognition
On Sept. 12, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Texas Rep. Venton Jones honored Chris Brown and Usher during their concert in Arlington, Texas. The incident sparked public backlash because of Brown’s history of domestic violence.
Padres Ride Seven-Run Second Inning to Drop Rockies
Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Tanner Gordon was not able to tamp down a San Diego Padres offensive onslaught.
In speech to anti-vaccine group, Kennedy promises a ‘friend at the White House’
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Trump's push to restrict mail ballots failed. Other efforts to reshape the midterms continue
The Supreme Court this week closed the chapter on one of Trump’s effort to dramatically overhaul of the nation’s mail voting processes. But the case was just one example of the Republican president’s numerous attempts to assert federal control over the upcoming midterms.
One Year Of America First Global Health Strategy: Controversy, Secrecy And Suffering
Country controversies, secret terms, opaque procurement, and massive unspent congressional funds have characterised the first year of the America First Global
Republicans seek daylight with Trump: From the Politics Desk
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Big 10 Pick 6: Learning Process
Last week was a bloodbath for pickers and projection systems. Oregon lost to Oklahoma State, the Huskies barely squeaked out a win over Utah St, Michigan bounced back from their disastrous Week 1, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together… MASS HYSTERIA! All that considered, I will live with a 4-2 record (2-4 ATS). As […]
Monroe County Public Health reports potential measles exposure at Rochester Airport
ROCHESTER, N.Y. — The Monroe County Department of Public Health says two people who traveled through the Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport have tested positive for measles. The county says the two traveled through the airport on Sept. 8 and Sept. 13, and may have exposed others to the disease. The two don’t live […]
New York voters can expect no changes to mail-in ballot process
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected efforts from the Trump administration to restrict mail-in ballots for the midterm elections.
Worker's arm trapped in machinery at Rockville business, shock trauma team called to scene
Rescue crews are working to free a worker whose arm and hand became trapped in industrial machinery in Rockville, Maryland.
How Titans QB Cam Ward Handles Adversity in the NFL
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Roundup: Space Force academy / Louisiana Innovation / Data center power
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‘Godfather of AI’ warns Congress has ‘maybe a year’ left to regulate AI
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New iPhone 18 Pro Models Will Have Day One Update
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The moon's new crater is 728 feet wide and a once-in-a-century find
A space rock generated a blast radius as wide as two football fields.
Join TGR for the world premiere of 'Actually, It Is Rocket Science' Saturday
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GTA 6 Online Releasing In 2027 Says Twitch CEO After Talks With Rockstar
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RFK Jr. Names Gender-Care Opponents to Preventive Health Panel
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on Thursday named new members to an advisory panel whose recommendations establish which preventive health procedures insurers must cover without cost-sharing, including two physicians known for their opposition to gender-affirming care.
Anthropic launches Claude Code Projects, an ‘always-on’ conversation that remembers and delegates your long-running dev work
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WXXI’s Saenz named Hispanic Business Person of the Year
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Terry Francona Explains Elly De La Cruz's Late-Season Surge
Cincinnati kept the Dodgers waiting on a division title Wednesday night, and its shortstop moved a step closer to a piece of franchise history in the process.
Arkansas State Fair returns in 2026 with new rides and attractions
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Gilham Elementary fifth-graders to launch self-made rockets in annual science event
More than 100 fifth-graders at Gilham Elementary School in Eugene are preparing to send self-made rockets into the sky as part of the school’s annual rocket lau
Gilham Elementary fifth-graders to launch self-made rockets in annual science event
More than 100 fifth-graders at Gilham Elementary School in Eugene are preparing to send self-made rockets into the sky as part of the school’s annual rocket lau
Gilham Elementary fifth-graders to launch self-made rockets in annual science event
More than 100 fifth-graders at Gilham Elementary School in Eugene are preparing to send self-made rockets into the sky as part of the school’s annual rocket lau
GTA Online Will Be Supported 'Beyond' GTA 6 Release, PC 'Becoming More and More Important'
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What your dog really thinks about you
Science is helping to peel back the layers of how dogs process the world around them
CASE STUDY: How Standardizing Purchasing With Staples Business Drove 17% Savings
When the team at Claiborne Senior Living sought to standardize purchasing processes, they turned to one of the most trusted names in business — and now
A strategic remedy for dairy shoppers’ health anxieties
Responsive schemes will make it easier for wellness-oriented customers to scrutinize product elements
DoorDash and Uber Eats to offer delivery from U.S. Costco stores
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The “Dark Money” Myth: Don’t Confuse Issue Education with Political Speech
In a recent article covering the 2026 midterms, The New York Times sounded an all-too-familiar alarm, warning readers of a tidal wave of "dark money" supposedly washing over the election. The narrative is meant to incite outrage, painting a picture of shadowy figures “upending” and “manipulating” politicians, our political process and indeed democracy itself through secretive nonprofit organizations.
New wild cat species is identified for first time in 100 years, researchers say
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Data & Business Process Services Stocks Q2 Recap: Benchmarking Equifax (NYSE:EFX)
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Ball State University Receives Grant to Strengthen Rural Health Workforce, Access to Care
By Ball State Communications— MUNCIE, IN— Ball State University has received funding through the Indiana Rural Health Transformation Program to strengthen the rural healthcare workforce and expand access to health services in East Central Indiana. The $358,170 award, covering Sept. 1, 2026-July 31
Robotic lab sets up and runs optics experiments on demand
The process of building and running an optics experiment to analyze a material’s properties could one day be fully automated, MIT scientists say. Taking a step toward such a future, they developed a reconfigurable, robotic optics laboratory.
Canada looks to deepen research and education links with the EU
Canada is looking for deeper research and education links with the EU, according to its prime minister, Mark Carney. His comments followed hard on the heels of an offer from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to give his nation associate membership of the EU, a status that currently has no legal status or definition. Both sides have yet to detail how this newfound political enthusiasm will translate into concrete action.Addressing the European Parliament on September 17, Carney cited both the Horizon Europe research and innovation programme and the Erasmus+ student mobility scheme as areas for future collaboration.Association with the next iteration of Horizon Europe “would allow us to pool resources, cooperate on frontier technology, leverage our world-class research institutes and universities,” he told MEPs. Canada joined the present programme in 2024, but only takes part in Pillar 2, which supports collaborative research projects. Carney also said that young people should be allowed to work, study and live where they want, on either side of the Atlantic. “Canadian membership of Erasmus+ would give your students and ours more opportunity to learn at some of the world’s top universities, to broaden their horizon and to build those lasting ties that will sustain our alliance,” he said.Limited exchanges with Canada are already possible, for example in the Erasmus Mundus strand of the scheme, which supports joint master’s programmes. This would be considerably increased if the country became a full associate member, a club currently limited to nations neighbouring the EU.Most favoured nation?As for the offer of associate membership of the EU, the aim would be to build “an alliance for the future to create a common prosperity and economic security base,” von der Leyen said during her state of the European Union address, also in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, on September 16.“We will work on intelligent manufacturing,” she went on. “We will create a tech alliance. We will integrate defence industrial bases. We will make the Arctic a flagship joint project. We will work on energy-critical minerals and batteries, on [artificial intelligence], quantum, cyber and economic security.”Mona Nemer, Canada’s chief science advisor, told Science|Business that the political speeches by Carney and Von der Leyen will open the door to even more scientific cooperation between Canada and the EU. She even attributed the broader political partnership to the scientific diplomacy of Horizon Europe association. “The science and research collaborations have predated this political rapprochement,” she said.While she is not part of the government decision-making process, Nemer thinks Carney’s speech in the European Parliament is more than “political posturing” and the Canadian government is likely to come up with more practical ideas for how to boost collaboration in the near future. “The prime minister mentioned Horizon [Europe] and Erasmus+, maybe there is something more concrete around this,” she said.She went on to suggest that Canada and Europe could also work more closely together on setting international standards for emerging technologies, AI safety, data sovereignty and joint research infrastructures, such as particle accelerators and marine research fleets.Nemer confirmed that science cooperation will be on the agenda at an upcoming EU-Canada summit in October. She met recently with EU ambassadors to Canada to "see where the possibilities are, to signal that there is interest."Room for expansionLike other countries outside Europe that are associated to Horizon Europe, such as South Korea, Australia or Japan, Canada is not allowed to host European Research Council (ERC) grantees. However, Canadian universities hint they would like re-open that discussion. “Canada’s participation in Horizon Europe, the world's largest research funding programme, has been a big success,” said Robert Asselin, the chief executive of U15 Canada, an umbrella body for some of the country’s biggest research universities, in a statement. “Ensuring swift re-association to the next research programme, will be vital to maintain this momentum. We would welcome efforts to explore further opportunities to collaborate with European partners, such as through the European Research Council,” he said. Related articlesHow a new multilateral defence bank could boost innovationEurope’s independence hinges on innovation, von der Leyen saysBut so far, there are no details from the Commission on how von der Leyen’s proposal would boost Canadian access to the ERC or other sensitive research calls in Horizon Europe. And it is unclear how other non-European associated countries, such as New Zealand or Australia, would react if Canada was given better access than them. The same questions may arise closer to home. “How would a new category of associate member of the EU differ from Norway’s participation in EU programmes through the European Economic Area?” asked Jan Palmowski, secretary general of the Guild of European Research-Intensive Universities. “And how does this proposal for Canada change discussion for the UK, Norway and Switzerland for the next Multiannual Financial Framework?”Another area for discussion is how far Canadian organisations can participate in sensitive projects. “I would expect some of the most crucial issues at hand to be whether Canada can participate more closely and predictably in calls that are deemed sensitive on research security or EU preference grounds, on critical technologies, for instance,” Palmowski said. Canada’s participation in other parts of Horizon Europe, as well as the European Competitiveness Fund, might also be discussed, he added.Whatever the details, closer cooperation between the EU and Canada represents a “substantial” opportunity, according to Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university group. “Scientific excellence depends on talented people being able to work together, exchange knowledge and access complementary expertise and infrastructure,” he said. “A closer EU-Canada partnership would strengthen these conditions and provide greater certainty for long-term collaboration.”
How to Prevent a Diagnosis That’s a ‘Silent Assassin’ for the Heart, Cardiologist Warns
In TODAY.com’s Expert Tip of the Day, a cardiologist urges people to prevent a condition that affects millions of Americans and dramatically raises their risk of heart disease.
Banking scandal rocks Brazil’s politics and the country’s presidential election in October
On the night of November 17 2025, Brazilian federal agents pulled banker Daniel Vorcaro off the tarmac at Sao Paulo’s Guarulhos airport as he prepared to board a private jet. He was initially detained as a flight risk and arrested a few months later on multiple charges of bank fraud, corruption and money laundering. He currently awaits judgment. Now, less than a month before Brazil’s national elections, the so called “Banco Master crisis” threatens to shake the country’s democracy to its core.
Trump administration live updates: Americans give AI in schools a poor grade
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Tim Cox rejoins Informative Research to lead the company’s business process automation efforts
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CVS Health's Aetna to streamline cancer treatment approvals
CVS Health's Aetna health insurance unit will cut back next year on the preapprovals it requires for treatment for cancer patients to only one medical prior authorization process early on, the company said on Thursday.
Succession planning questions for Rochester small business owners preparing for retirement
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Mary Means Business: Aldi sets target of 2027 to open in Columbus
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🚨 Morocco: Mohamed Ouahbi's squad, with some new faces!
With some new faces!Morocco coach Mohamed Ouahbi has just unveiled this Thursday at midday his list of players called up for the September-October international break.It is the first post-World Cup ca...
Lena Dunham welcomes her first baby via surrogacy
(CNN) — Actress and writer Lena Dunham and her husband Luis Felber have welcomed a baby daughter via surrogate.Writing in an op-ed published by Vogue on Wednesday, Dunham, 40, who is best known as the creator of hit TV series “Girls,” revealed that the couple’s first child had arrived 13 days late, before describing the moment of her birth.“I was so focused on our surrogate — in awe at her concentration, her period of quiet followed by what sounded like a roar — I forgot to look down until I heard our baby’s cry,” she wrote.“I saw her face, gasping just as she did. Her eyes, wide and unfocused, taking in the light and shadow, blinking rapidly.”Dunham said she was “bashful and dizzy with joy.”In 2018, Dunham revealed that she’d had a hysterectomy in an attempt to end the pain caused by endometriosis.Endometriosis is a common and often painful condition that happens when tissue similar to the lining of the uterus grows outside the uterus itself. It’s estimated to affect more than 11% of women between the ages of 15 and 44 across the United States.The surgery removed her cervix and uterus, meaning that she was unable to conceive naturally.On meeting her surrogate, Dunham wrote in the Vogue piece: “While I’ve been known to make friends quickly — airport terminals, veterinary offices — this was the quickest leap from first coffee to gynecological procedure I’d ever done.”Dunham said in the months before the embryo transfer date, as she “got to know our surrogate and to trust her,” she thought she would feel “jealousy” towards her, but she did not.“Instead, I felt a different kind of jealousy — toward said baby, for the chance to be tucked into someone who radiated such safety. I could just tell she knew how to steer an SUV in the snow,” Dunham added.The pregnancy came after “12 years circling the fertility drain,” Dunham wrote, and revealed how she dealt with the nerves of the intervening months.“Powerless and unable to feel the physical changes that signal a growing fetus, I horrified friends and family who adhere to the Jewish superstition prohibiting anticipatory purchases, and I started shopping,” said Dunham, before recounting her journey into the world of baby fashion.“I was looking for garments that allowed her personality to develop and express itself rather than announcing an identity she didn’t yet have,” she said.“She would be a person that we helped to dress, who made an impression on the world based on our choices, until she was old enough to do it herself.”The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.THE-CNN-WIRE (TM) & © 2026 CABLE NEWS NETWORK, INC., A TIME WARNER COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
The Strange New Politics of AI. Plus. . .
It’s Thursday, September 17. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Douglas Murray asks, why do we allow terrorists to die of old age? The American nonprofits backing Hamas. A conversation with Dara Horn and Coleman Hughes. And much more. But first: inside the unlikely coalition warning that AI may kill us all. Last week, an AI researcher named Jacob Coxon made headlines around the world after saying that he had resigned from Anthropic because he believes AI might cause human extinction—and his co-workers do, too. Unlike the rest of us, potentially, the story just won’t die. The Pro-Human Assembly, a conference held Tuesday in Washington, D.C., about the existential dangers of artificial intelligence, couldn’t have come at a better time—or with a more eclectic coalition. The Archbishop of San Francisco was there. So was Steve Bannon, screaming about the Chinese. Bernie Sanders did a quasi-dramatic reading of messages posted to an online forum by rogue AI agents. Ashley Judd paraphrased a graphic Andrea Dworkin quote for reasons that remain a mystery to me still. It was odd. People in the AI industry have talked openly about the possibility of this technology causing human extinction for years, but it hits differently in the wake of the Hugging Face incident. If you don’t know what that is, all the more reason to read my dispatch today. As the doomers see it, the best-case scenario is a future in which humans are basically kept as pets: well cared for, but with zero autonomy. The worst-case scenario, obviously, is the everyone dies thing. What should be done? I heard lots of ideas but no easy answers. There are currently zero federal regulations on AI, which is sort of strange even to think about. After all, we regulate microwaves, and the people running the microwave industry have never once refused to rule out the possibility that their products will end all human life on Earth. What I saw in D.C. left me even more convinced that you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who believes nothing should be done. You know, except for President Trump. — River Page River Page • Tech and Business [ The AI Doomers Have a Plan to Save Us. I Went to Find Out What It Is. ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-ai-doomers-have-plan-save-bernie-sanders-bannon) Read story How Robert Kraft Made Macklemore a Martyr—and How to Better Fight Antisemitism On Monday, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and a group of other NFL owners banned Macklemore from performing at their stadiums after the rapper delivered a “Free Palestine” speech while opening for Ed Sheeran. Kraft cited the rapper’s “broader history of antisemitic rhetoric and imagery.” Once multiple venues refused to host shows with Macklemore on the lineup, the tour’s promoter officially dropped him. Today, Josh Kaplan says that the move was counterproductive, arguing that though well-intentioned, Kraft’s decision turned an irrelevant footnote into a martyr. “You cannot cancel people into liking you,” Josh writes. Read his column on what a better response to Macklemore would have looked like. Read [ Robert Kraft Made Macklemore a Martyr ](https://www.thefp.com/p/robert-kraft-made-macklemore-martyr-antisemitism-palestine) This raises the question: What actually works against antisemitism? On the latest episode of Conversations with Coleman, recorded in front of a live audience in New York, Dara Horn joins Coleman Hughes to talk about her new book The Final Solution to the Jewish Question. She argues that antisemitism is a script that has repeated itself across countries and ideologies, and that most people don’t understand that well enough to fight it. Don’t miss their conversation. Watch [ The Lie at the Center of Antisemitism, with Dara Horn ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-lie-at-the-center-of-antisemitism-coleman-hughes-dana-horn) Listen now Douglas Murray • U.S. Politics [ Douglas Murray: The 9/11 Failure That Still Haunts America ](https://www.thefp.com/p/douglas-murray-911-failure-justice-terrorist-guantanamo-bay) Twenty-five years after the September 11 attacks, the men who planned them have still not faced trial. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and most of the accused have been locked up in Guantanamo Bay since 2002. Judges have retired, and plea deals have collapsed. Today, Douglas Murray examines how this happened and argues that a justice system that allows terrorists to die of old age in an interminable pretrial process is one that has failed. Read his latest column on what that failure says about our unpreparedness for the era we are now living in. Read story The Editors • U.S. Politics [ When Nonprofits Support Terrorists ](https://www.thefp.com/p/when-nonprofits-support-terrorists) A newly declassified CIA brief from 1998 found that Osama bin Laden used nonprofit shell organizations—including U.S.-based Islamic groups—to fund his terror plots. Today, a similar story is unfolding as multiple organizations on American soil present themselves as nonprofits, taking advantage of tax-exempt status while seeking to advance the ideological mission of terrorist groups like Hamas. Read our editorial on the latest evidence of this dangerous trend—and why there’s no excuse for making the same mistake the CIA revealed 28 years ago. Read story Simon Sebag Montefiore and Bari Weiss Live in New York For decades, the Middle East has shaped American foreign policy and loomed large in the public consciousness. Few understand its influence on our politics better than Simon Sebag Montefiore, who argues that America’s quagmires in the Middle East stem from a deep misunderstanding of the region—on both the left and the right. Join him October 1 as he sits down with Bari Weiss live in New York City to kick off his U.S. book tour for The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East. Get Tickets Now MORE FROM THE FREE PRESS [ Sydney Sweeney’s Naked Truth ](https://www.thefp.com/p/sydney-sweeneys-naked-truth-caitlin-flanagan) Caitlin Flanagan Read story [ I Thought Ukraine Was Losing. Then I Was Almost Hit by a Russian Drone. ](https://www.thefp.com/p/elliot-ackerman-ukraine-drone-gas-station-train) Elliot Ackerman Read story [ The Dangerous Ideology Behind the AI Warnings ](https://www.thefp.com/p/dangerous-ideology-effective-altruism-artificial-intelligence) Shyam Sankar Read story [ Amanda Knox: Patrick Clancy Can’t Win ](https://www.thefp.com/p/amanda-knox-patrick-clancy-grief-internet-crime) Amanda Knox Read story THE NEWS The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point, its first hike since 2023, signaling that another increase could follow as the central bank tries to bring inflation under control. President Donald Trump fired back by demanding that rates be cut sharply, though he stopped short of criticizing Fed Chair Kevin Warsh by name. The Houthis fired drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, including a major oil port on the Red Sea, and Saudi jets struck back with air strikes across Yemen in an escalating front of the Middle East war. (For more on the Houthis, read Zineb Riboua’s column from earlier this week.) A sweeping Russia and Iran sanctions bill passed the House in a 262–159 vote and is now heading to Trump for his signature. Named after the late senator Lindsey Graham, the legislation would hit countries that purchase large volumes of Russian oil and gas with tariffs of up to 100 percent, and is aimed at cutting off revenue that funds Russia’s war in Ukraine. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada the European Union’s first-ever “associate member,” drawing a standing ovation from European lawmakers. The proposal, framed as a response to a world grown more hostile, faces an uncertain path as EU member states would have to approve it, and one diplomat said that “nobody really knows what it means.” The House voted unanimously to send billionaire Leon Black a criminal contempt referral after he defied a congressional subpoena to testify and hand over documents related to his connections to Jeffrey Epstein. Black chose to fight the subpoena in court rather than comply. Charlie Kirk’s family filed a wrongful death notice Wednesday against Utah Valley University, alleging that a series of security failures left him exposed to a rooftop sniper. The notice is a required legal step before the family can sue. Merriam-Webster added 1,400 words and definitions to its dictionary, including looksmaxxing, vibe coding, and cuffing season. The publisher said the new entries offer “a window into the world today.” The Free Press earns a commission from any purchases made through all book links in this article.
PSA: watchOS 27 Removes This Useful Feature From Your Apple Watch
Apple released watchOS 27 on September 14, bringing a new Audio Intelligence feature set to its latest Apple Watch models, but as a result, owners of previous models are set to lose out doubly in the process. Apple Watch Series 12 and Ultra 4 models later this year will get Live Rewind, a feature that provides a transcript of any spoken audio that was picked up by the device in the last 15 seconds. To activate the feature, users need to double-click the Digital Crown.
Morocco's political parties battle youth disenchantment ahead of election
Morocco’s political parties are trying to entice young voters to the polls next week with promises of jobs and affordable housing after violent protests last year and a border rush on the Spanish enclave of Ceuta highlighted widespread discontent.
Morocco’s political parties battle youth disenchantment ahead of election
By Ahmed Eljechtimi and Alexander Dziadosz RABAT/CAIRO, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Morocco’s political parties are trying to entice young voters to the polls next week with promises of jobs and affordable housing after violent protests last year and a border ...
The Watergate Caper: Richard Nixon and the Death of the American Dream review
Shane O’Sullivan’s documentary weaves archive clips and snippets from films old and new to draw out the highlights of the crisis that rocked the US
Trump bashes Democrats on crime while campaigning for Michael Whatley in North Carolina
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Morocco’s 2026 election: A test of political trust and engagement
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Rain, local politics, Flock off, AI Armageddon and fall color
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🎥 Messi hits 100 goals for Inter Miami!
Lionel Messi steals the opener from Cruz Azul and puts Inter Miami ahead in the race for the Campeones Cup title.The Argentine striker broke the deadlock with a ferocious header that left Cruz Azul go...
Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Atlantic City Named Among Nation's Best for Dining and Entertainment
(ATLANTIC CITY, NJ) -- /PRNewswire/ -- Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Atlantic City continues to position itself as a premier destination for award-winning dining and world-class entertainment, earning national recognition across several of its signature venues. From Kuro's acclaimed Japanese cuisine and Il Mulino's Old-World Italian fare to the star-studded performances at Hard Rock Live at Etess Arena, the resort's culinary and entertainment offerings continue to garner praise from leading industry and consumer publications.
House passes Russia sanctions bill named for Lindsey Graham, sending it to Trump
The legislation passed the Senate last month. It targets Russia’s energy sector by punishing the largest buyers of its oil and gas to slash revenues Russia uses to attack Ukraine.
Kennedy to give speech to anti-vaccine group he founded, after distancing himself for years
The health secretary’s keynote address will be the first time since 2023 that he has been publicly associated with Children’s Health Defense.
Trump’s latest branding battle: From the Politics Desk
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Raiders Star Tight End Still Not Practicing After Surgery
The Las Vegas Raiders missed tight end Brock Bowers last week, and he's still not practicing after knee surgery.
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
WATCH: 865 Neyland Entertainment District & Hotel Fly-Through
Check out a full fly-through of the future 865 Neyland entertainment district and hotel project, coming to Neyland Stadium in the next few years.