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Political inflection point? Trump’s approval rating is cratering
Chris Hayes breaks down new polling that shows Trump’s approval rating hitting record lows amid his war in Iran as the U.S. economy falters.
For this environmental health researcher, science is an 'act of hope'
David J.X. Gonzalez, an assistant professor of public health, works to protect communities from environmental harms like air pollution and oil and gas emissions.
For this environmental health researcher, science is an 'act of hope'
David J.X. Gonzalez, an assistant professor of public health, works to protect communities from environmental harms like air pollution and oil and gas emissions.
Italy underwhelmed by Trump envoy's suggestion it should replace Iran at World Cup
President Donald Trump’s U.S. special envoy Paolo Zampolli told the Financial Times that he made the suggestion to the U.S. president and FIFA President Gianni Infantino.
Young voters squeezed by economy and distrust political systems in new poll
Roughly half of young Americans said they are affected by inflation, and 45% said they are struggling to make ends meet in new Harvard Youth Poll.
Apollo nears $1.6 bln deal for auto interiors business of France's Forvia, Bloomberg News reports
Private equity firm Apollo is nearing a deal to acquire the auto interiors business of France's Forvia , Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Poll: Most Americans believe Supreme Court avoids ruling against Trump
A new poll shows most Americans believe the Supreme Court avoids ruling against Donald Trump, despite a recent ruling against Trump's tariffs.
Maine’s transgender sports referendum is on the verge of dropping off the ballot
The referendum has enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot, but the margin is tight with more challenges pending.
Professor Turns Challenging Computer Science Courses Into Student Breakthroughs
In six years, Richard “Carter” Tillquist has turned rigorous computer science courses into supportive, engaging experiences, helping students build confidence, curiosity, and a lasting passion for learning.
Child Health Poll: Vast majority of Tennessee parents say their kids get regular immunizations, support school-based immunization requirements
Roughly 8 in 10 parents surveyed across the state said they are concerned about communicable diseases like measles if others are not immunized and agreed that immunizations are important to protect their children from serious infections.
More Pennsylvanians unhappy with the state of health care, stressed out by politics, Muhlenberg poll finds
According to Muhlenberg College’s 2026 Pennsylvania Health Poll, Pennsylvanians’ outlook on health care continues to worsen.
Senate hopeful Graham Platner calls to investigate Trump and impeach two Supreme Court justices
The underdog Maine candidate, who has risen in polls, told NBC News he wants to carry on the legacy of Bernie Sanders and push Democrats to be more aggressive.
Scottish Parliament election: Campaigning continues across the country
Voters will go the polls on 7 May to elect 129 members of the Scottish Parliament.
Approval of Trump on economy falls in new AP-NORC poll, as Iran war drives up prices
The findings from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research show a president who is struggling with unfulfilled promises to tame inflation and testing Americans’ patience with a conflict in the Middle East that has dragged on longer than expected.
Poll workers told to leave Shasta training for opposing politics talk
Two Shasta County poll workers say they were dismissed from a training session after questioning elections chief Clint Curtis.
Scientists just captured trees glowing with electricity during storms
Scientists chasing thunderstorms in a retrofitted minivan finally captured something never seen before in nature: faint electrical glows shimmering from treetops during a storm. These “corona discharges,” long suspected but never observed outside a lab, appeared as tiny UV flashes at the tips of leaves. The discovery could reshape how we understand forests, since these bursts may help clean the air by breaking down pollutants.
Including A 20,000-Cap Arena: Live Nation, OVG & Atlético Madrid To Build Entertainment, Sports & Educational Complex In Spanish Capital
Barsento, a joint venture formed by Live Nation, Oak View Group (OVG), and Atlético de Madrid, alongside the Mayor of Madrid, José Luis Martínez-Almeida,
Poll flags vaccine politics as risk ahead of Special Session
Poll shows strong voter support for existing vaccine requirements statewide.
UVA Center for Politics weighs in on redistricting outcome
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (CBS19 NEWS) -- Virginians will head to the polls Tuesday for a special election that will determine whether redistricting moves forward.
3 warning signs for Republicans in our new poll: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Republicans weigh how big to go on their next party-line funding bill.
West Bengal election: Why politicians are campaigning with fish in hand
In West Bengal polls, fish moves from plate to politics, symbolising identity and cultural pride.
Kansas baseball gains position in USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
Kansas baseball hasn’t just remained in the top 25 of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, it’s gained position. Here’s where the Jayhawks are ranked.
Sphere Entertainment Appoints David Dibble As Vice Chairman
Sphere Entertainment has named David Dibble, a seasoned technologist and business leader, Vice Chairman, Sphere.
Lagging in polls and fundraising, Betty Yee drops out of California governor’s race
Yee's departure from the race for governor leaves six leading Democrats in the running with two leading Republicans.
College baseball rankings for Week 11: Updated USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, D1Baseball top 25
UCLA remains the top team in college baseball in the updated USA TODAY Coaches Poll. Here's a full look at this week's poll and more.
CTS Eventim & Stage Entertainment Extend Ticketing Partnership
CTS Eventim, and Stage Entertainment, a leading global theatre production company founded in Germany, but producing musicals across Europe, have agreed to
What is President Donald Trump's approval rating? See latest polls
President Trump's approval rating has long been underwater, spelling trouble for Republicans in the midterms. Iran, high gas prices aren't helping.
Cocaine pollution in rivers and lakes may disrupt behaviour of salmon, study finds
Fish swam further and dispersed more widely after exposure to environmental levels of drug and main metabolite
Jay Collins remains in Governor's race, says he's buying ads to prove it
The LG, polling in single digits, says the President's preferred candidate can't win.
Helping young adults stay active
1 in 3 parents say their adult child is minimally active or inactive. 2 in 5 parents say lack of time gets in the way of their adult child getting enough physical activity. 3 in 4 parents have tried to encourage their adult child to be more physically active with verbal encouragement.
AI shaping our health care decisions, even whether we go to the doctor
For nearly half of Americans, artificial intelligence plays some sort of role in their health care decisions, a new Gallup poll found.
Trump's approval rating drops over economy, Iran war in new poll
New polling from NBC News Decision Desk measured new lows for the president's second term. See the numbers.
Poll: Trump's approval rating hits second-term low as Americans sour on the economy and Iran war
Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation, according to an NBC News Decision Desk Poll, with some cracks emerging in his GOP support.
A new force of nature is reshaping the planet, study finds
Human societies didn’t just adapt to the planet—they learned to reshape it. From early fire use to today’s global supply chains, our cultural and social innovations have unlocked extraordinary power to transform Earth and improve human life. But that progress has come with serious costs, including climate change, pollution, and mass extinction. Instead of framing this era—the Anthropocene—as pure crisis, Erle Ellis argues it’s also proof of something hopeful: when people work together, they can drive massive positive change.
Poll: Are You Happy with Your PS Plus Extra, Premium Games for April 2026?
Plus or minus?
Scientists Raise Concerns Over Newly Recognized Pollutant Found Everywhere in the Air
Scientists have uncovered unexpectedly high levels of methylsiloxanes in the air worldwide, suggesting a hidden and widespread form of pollution.
Another poll shows Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis staring up at JD Vance in 2028 GOP sweepstakes, each struggling with young voters
Can a Florida man win the White House in 2028?
Trump touts 'record refunds' but polls show US indifferent to tax cuts
Trump barnstormed around the tax-filing deadline promoting cuts on tips and overtime but polls find Americans think taxes are still too high.
The extreme positions Trump proposes
President Donald Trump this month threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure in ways that might well be war crimes. It’s his latest extreme move that polls show his GOP base has embraced.
Greg Gutfeld: Gen Z’s rise in religion is a reaction against identity politics
Fox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’ panel analyze a poll showing Gen Z flocking to religion.
Jack Schlossberg May in Fact Happen, According to Polls
A new poll showed the Kennedy scion leading the field in the NY-12 race, but a significant number of voters still appeared undecided.
Speaking with One Voice to Advance Health in America
Two days from now, the AHA will welcome more than 1,000 health care leaders to our 2026 Annual Membership Meeting in Washington, D.C.
Politics correspondent examines new California governor's race poll results
Politics and government correspondent Guy Marzorati joined NBC Bay Area’s Raj Mathai to examine the first major statewide poll conducted after Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race.
Why so Americans are using AI for health guidance
Turning to artificial intelligence tools for health advice has become a habit for many other Americans, according to a West Health–Gallup Center on Healthcare in America poll published Wednesday.
Gen Z is at the precipice of political power in Wisconsin. Will they use it?
Poll after poll shows that America’s youngest voters have grown increasingly disillusioned with the traditional political system.
New poll shakes up California governor race, debate stage
Editor’s note: This article was updated to correct the breakdown of Republican voters surveyed. Congressman Eric Swalwell’s abrupt departure from the race for California governor has upended the fi…
Trump administration live updates: N.J. voters head to the polls for special House election
Get live updates and the latest news on the Trump administration as New Jersey voters head to the polls for special election to fill New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill's former House seat and the House votes on protections from deportation for Haitian immigrants.
Apollo Health Ventures launches new start-up with $20 million in federal funds
An award from ARPA-H is powering Nula Therapeutics
In group chats and meetings, Republicans are privately petrified the Iran war could cost them the midterms
Many Republican lawmakers and strategists told NBC News they worry the party has little to run on. “Right now, the voters don’t see a message or a strategy,” a Trump pollster said.
5 takeaways from recent Iran polls that look increasingly grim for Trump
The US war with Iran is getting more unpopular over time. And as we’ve gotten more extensive polling, we learning more about why that is.
Coal ash rollback 'all-out attack' on Indiana communities, groups say
The U.S. EPA proposed to roll back coal ash cleanup rules initially designed to protect people and water from pollution.
Labour claims Reform UK won’t protect women, as poll suggests Farage’s party heading for ‘seismic’ wins in May
Poll projects major political earthquake across Britain with Labour losing Wales and England’s Red Wall
Why are many Americans turning to AI for health advice
A Gallup poll found that roughly one-quarter of U.S. adults had used an AI tool for health information or advice in the past 30 days.
Polls show why many Americans are turning to AI for health advice
Many Americans are turning to artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT for health advice. A Gallup poll out Wednesday found that about 1 in 4 U.S. adults had used AI for health information in the past month.
Why many Americans are turning to AI for health advice, according to recent polls
Many Americans are turning to artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT for health advice.
Why many Americans are turning to AI for health advice, according to recent polls
Many Americans are turning to artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT for health advice.
Why Many Americans Are Turning to AI for Health Advice, According to Recent Polls
NEW YORK (AP) — When Tiffany Davis has a question about a symptom from the weight-loss injections she’s taking, she doesn’t call her doctor. She pulls out her phone and consults ChatGPT. “I’ll just basically let ChatGPT know my status, how I’m feeling,” said the 42-year-old in Mesquite, Texas. “I ...
What’s the allergy forecast? Cloudy, with a good chance of pollen
Over the next few weeks, New Hampshire residents can expect to see yellowish dust coat sidewalks, cars and the insides of windowsills. Peak tree pollen season begins in April, followed
Americans Turning to AI to Supplement Healthcare Visits
One in four Americans use AI for health information. Most do so to supplement care, but some are using AI in place of a provider visit when barriers arise.
Beyond the aroma: The science-backed reason your grandmother boiled Rosemary
Discover how boiling rosemary can purify your indoor air, remove pollutants, and promote better health. Learn the science behind this ancient practice and how to easily incorporate it into your daily routine.
Young voters shun Trump, plan to vote blue in midterms, poll says
With the midterm primary season underway, a new national poll is measuring how the nation's youngest voters feel about Trump and the November election.
Z2 Entertainment Goes With Tixr For Colorado Venues, Including Boulder and Fox Theaters (Exclusive)
Ticketing platfom Tixr has partnered with Colorado independent promoter and venue owner Z2 Entertainment, a deal that includes ticketing at the Fox and
Swalwell out, new poll could alter April 22 debate lineup
The field for the upcoming Inside California Politics gubernatorial debate is likely to shift following the sudden exit of Rep. Eric Swalwell, who dropped out of the race over the weekend amid alle…
Kansas baseball rises into top 25 of USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
Kansas baseball jumped into the top 25 of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. Take a look to see where the Jayhawks are going to be ranked this week.
College baseball rankings for Week 9: Updated USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, D1Baseball top 25
UCLA remains the top team in the updated USA TODAY Coaches college baseball rankings, but a number of teams saw sizeable drops and rises this week:
Poll: Democrats gaining ground, key races tighten in Florida as Donald Trump drags GOP
Independent voters are breaking sharply toward Democrats, a shift pollsters say could reshape Florida’s political map after years of Republican dominance.
Poll: Will Steph Curry and the Warriors Advance?
The NBA play-in tournament begins Tuesday, with eight teams looking to advance in the NBA playoffs. On Tuesday, the Phoenix Suns (7 seed) host the Portland Trail Blazers (8), and the Charlotte Hornets (9) host the Miami Heat (10). On Wednesday, the Philadelphia 76ers (7) host the Orlando Magic (8), and the Los Angeles Clippers (9) host the Golden State Warriors (10).
Northern Poll: Ohioans prioritize political civility despite future uncertainty
Ohioans find political incivility unacceptable but differ on optimism for the future.
Polling stations close in pivotal Hungary election that could unseat long-time Prime Minister Orbán
Hungarians cast ballots Sunday in Europe's most consequential election this year, setting a record turnout in a vote that could unseat populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power.
Polls close in high-stakes Hungarian election as Magyar seeks to oust Orbán
Polls closed with a record-high turnout in Hungary’s crucial general election, with a freshly released survey suggesting Péter Magyar’s insurgent opposition is set to beat...
Close of polls nears in Hungary's most crucial election in decades
As record numbers of Hungarians head to the polls, the EU is preparing for two scenarios: continued obstruction under Orbán or a victory for Magyar that could reset relations, though Brussels remains cautious about both.
How to Limit The Health Risks Posed by Polluted Air
By Carole Tanzer Miller HealthDay ReporterSUNDAY, April 12, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Air pollution just isn’t what it used to be. While levels of lead and sulfur dioxide have dropped due to environmental regulations, other threats to air quality persist. Particle pollution, ozone and wildfire smoke ...
'Human minds shouldn't have to go through' this: Artemis II crew recalls unreal moment when Earth disappeared — Space photo of the week
A stunning Earthset image from Artemis II recalls Apollo 8's Earthrise, marking humanity's return to deep space and the start of a new era of exploration.
Hungarians head to polls in crucial election
Pollsters predict a record turnout as EU future is likely at stake.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
PS6 Pricing: 41% of Digital Foundry Viewers Would Pay $699 or More for a Next-Gen PlayStation
Over 50,000 people respond to our poll.
Artemis II crew used modern photography to tell the visual story of their lunar journey – and update some classic Apollo images
A space historian explains how the Artemis II crew reimagined some Apollo-era photos and found spectacular new angles.
Hungary’s Viktor Orban struggling for political survival ahead of vote
Hungarian prime minister and his Fidesz party face first closely contested polls in Sunday's parliamentary election.
Unusual airborne toxin detected in the U.S. for the first time
Scientists searching for air pollution clues stumbled onto something unexpected: toxic MCCPs drifting through the air for the first time in the Western Hemisphere. The likely source—fertilizer made from sewage sludge—points to a hidden route for contamination.
In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
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