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Cassidy shifts on CDC nominee, citing change to disputed autism page
But the page’s core claim still suggests a long debunked link between vaccines and autism.
Reflecting the Real Faces Behind the Physical Sciences
AIP’s Faces of the Physical Sciences initiative is building a richer visual story of the researchers, educators, and students behind scientific progress. Your images can help preserve that story and determine who gets to be seen.
The Latest Policy Issue: Sports Prediction Markets
House Agriculture Committee examines regulatory gaps in sports prediction markets. Learn how federal oversight is evolving for this booming industry.
Senate health panel delays vote on CDC nominee
Too few senators were in attendance to proceed with a vote on the CDC director nominee.
Senate Health Committee delays vote on CDC nominee - Live Updates
With Alaska Republican Lisa Murkowski absent for a family emergency, Erica Schwartz would have needed a Democrat’s support to advance.
Cambridge Business Park plans submitted
The number of homes to be built on the site will be determined by an "odour zone", papers suggest.
Vote on key federal health nominee delayed amid questions over vaccine views
Sean Kaufman, nominated to run ASPR, has a track record of questioning the safety of vaccines.
Vote on health emergency preparedness nominee delayed - Live Updates
Sean Kaufman's history of questioning vaccine safety took center stage at his confirmation hearing last week.
Maxence Lacroix to Chelsea: Crystal Palace defender is quick, excels when one-on-one and is a leader now too
France international Maxence Lacroix is a target for Chelsea after two successful seasons with Crystal Palace. But why do they want to sign him? Adam Bate looks at the defender’s record in the Premier League and examines what makes him such a special player…
In private call, Michigan Republican running for Senate sees himself in ‘good shape’ against one particular Democrat
As Michigan Democrats debate who is their best candidate for Senate, the presumptive Republican nominee, Mike Rogers, has a frank private assessment of the field.
Democrats try to harness data center backlash that's dividing rural Republicans in places like Texas
Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for Texas governor, is focusing on data centers as a key issue in her campaign against Republican Gov. Greg Abbott
Research being done in Colorado examines how climate change may reshape disease risk, spread
‘Unacceptable’: San Francisco Officials Question Kaiser’s Approach to AI in Mental Health
In a hearing, therapists decried Kaiser’s proposed contract terms during labor negotiations, which they argued would undermine mental health services. The largest health insurer for city employees said it remains focused on providing timely, high-quality mental health services.
James Talarico calls for tighter regulations on data center development
Democratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico on Wednesday called for a broad set of tighter regulations on data centers in Texas, seizing on what has become a potential political liability
Democrat Phil Weiser names Jeffco Commissioner Lesley Dahlkemper as his gubernatorial running mate
Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser, the Democratic nominee for governor, on Wednesday named Jefferson County Commissioner Lesley Dahlkemper to be his lieutenant governor running mate in the general election. Weiser, who is facing Republican nominee Victor Marx for the seat held by term-limited Democratic Gov. Jared Polis, announced his pick at a news conference at […]
5 projects at UW–Madison aimed at transforming science and energy with AI receive DOE Genesis Mission funding
The projects, spanning fusion to critical minerals, are among 278 funded awards to national labs, companies, universities and non-profits in order to accelerate breakthroughs in energy, scientific discovery and national security through a new platform that combines AI, supercomputing, quantum systems and advanced scientific instruments.
WATCH LIVE: House panel examines Delaney Hall ICE detention center conditions and protests
UMaine-led team selected for inaugural DOE Genesis Mission to advance AI in underground science
Beneath Maine’s salt marshes, an invisible transformation is constantly underway. Water moves through soil and rock. Chemicals react. Tiny microbes living underground help determine whether minerals dissolve or form, how fluids move and whether pollutants break down or spread. Existing computer models used to guide decisions about energy infrastructure and…
New Report Examines How States Can Protect Pregnant/Postpartum Enrollees from Losing Health Coverage Due to Work Reporting Requirements (And Why We Should Still Be Worried)
As awareness has grown about the new Medicaid work reporting requirements (WRRs) that have already been put in place in some states but are mandated to begin January 1 of next year, it has created layers of confusion about who will be required to report work hours. Our new report on pregnant women and WRRs […]
White House wants to shift billions of dollars of research funding away from ‘slow consensus peer review’ and into individual scientists and AI
Moving funding to individual scientists and AI could undermine US scientific credibility at home and abroad.
Model the Transformation You Expect Employees to Deliver
Leaders must model the transformation they expect others to deliver. Yet many leadership teams undermine their own ambitions by promoting agility, experimentation, and innovation while continuing to govern through legacy processes that reward predictability and risk avoidance. Employees notice the disconnect and follow what leaders do, not what they say. The most successful transformations occur when senior leaders personally sponsor the organization’s most uncertain initiatives, devote meaningful time to change, embrace learning, and demonstrate a willingness to change course when evidence demands it. Executives can test whether they are truly modeling the by examining how they spend their time (the calendar test), how they manage ambiguity as an executive team (the uncertainty test as a team, and whether they openly retire initiatives that no longer create value (the cancellation test).
Democrats call for unity, support for Jackson, ahead of Saturday convention
While Jackson is the presumptive nominee, David Costello — who finished third in the June primary won by Platner — and Saundra Pelletier, the CEO of a women’s health company, also qualified to compete at Saturday’s convention.
How Troy Jackson went from an anti-abortion Republican to the Democrats’ hope for defeating Susan Collins
Troy Jackson is on the verge of replacing Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine after harnessing the enthusiasm of former Platner supporters who were galvanized by the oyster farmer’s insurgent campaign.
Devonian’s Phase II/III Thykamine paediatric study secures Health Canada approval
Devonian Health Group has received authorisation from Health Canada for its CTA to begin a Phase II/III study of Thykamine cream to treat mild-to-moderate atopic dermatitis in paediatric patients.
Prominent Analyst Believes Jaguars’ Tuten Can Become a Star
As Jacksonville moves on from Travis Etienne, explosive second-year back Bhayshul Tuten faces immense pressure to silence skeptics and transform a young backfield into an elite unit.
The Five Biggest "What Ifs" of the Josh Allen Era
From pivotal trades to career-defining leaps, examine the sliding-door moments that transformed a struggling franchise into a powerhouse and nearly altered the course of Buffalo football history.
House lawmakers question sports prediction markets as tribes defend gaming authority
House lawmakers examined sports prediction markets as tribal leaders argued federally regulated event contracts threaten tribal gaming authority and consumer protections.
Gov. Greg Abbott orders state health agencies to crack down on ‘birth tourism’
Immigration attorneys have expressed concerns the executive order could force health providers to determine the legal status of pregnant women before providing care, potentially endangering their lives and those of their unborn children.
Arizona Republicans pick nominees Tuesday for governor and other top offices
Arizona Republicans are choosing nominees Tuesday to challenge Democrats who hold top offices as the GOP searches for a path back to power in a battleground state it used to dominate.
Angus King urges Trump administration to drop rule giving political authority over research grants
King, along with 10 Democratic senators, sent a letter to the director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Vought, warning that the rule would undermine scientific research, weaken American competitiveness, and increase bureaucracy.
A Massive Flow of Rock and Mud Tumbled Down Mount Rainier Centuries Ago. Scientists Pinpointed Its Date to Better Understand the Volcano's Complex Threats
In a recent study, researchers dated a historic lahar called the Electron Mudflow to the summer of 1507, establishing a way to determine when past geologic events around the Puget Sound occurred
The Lean Startup Playbook Forgot Something Important: These 5 Mental Skills Determine Whether Your Idea Survives
A business school professor shares the mental roadblocks that keep people from innovating.
Troy Jackson’s sudden rise in Maine invites scrutiny of his past and his vulnerabilities
Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson is Democrats’ likely nominee to take on GOP Sen. Susan Collins in an expensive, consequential race following Graham Platner’s exit.
WATCH LIVE: House Oversight hearing examines how the Smithsonian presents U.S. history, under attack by Trump
Nebraska Medical Marijuana Officials Approve Rules For Business Application And Licensing Fees
“Building a new regulatory agency is much like constructing a house.” By Zach Wendling, Nebraska Examiner The Nebraska Medical Cannabis Commission will move forward with requiring fees for registered cannabis establishments and applicants in the coming weeks. Commissioners released the first draft of updated regulations Monday. The proposal would create a $5,000 application fee, license […]
Clint Reilly, influential SF political strategist and San Francisco Examiner owner, dies at 79
For decades, Clint Reilly was one of the most influential figures operating behind the scenes of Bay Area politics, managing campaigns for Nancy Pelosi, Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein, advising candidates and helping professionalize a political consulting industry that would grow into a year-round enterprise. He died Sunday at 79.
9 Vitamins and Supplements That May Support Brain Health
Certain vitamins, minerals, and healthy fats benefit brain health by supporting nerve function, protecting brain cells from damage, and improving focus.
36 Prominent Playwrights Will Take on Present Politics in Women+ on the Edge of Democracy
The initiative has commissioned 36 10-minute plays and monologues in response to the current political climate.
Democratic candidates discuss inclusive politics, bumpy primary campaign
The forum took place with just three weeks to go before the primary election and following a massive shakeup in the race last week.
J.J. McCarthy Receives Strong Take Amid Vikings QB Competition
The Minnesota Vikings will use a QB competition between J.J. McCarthy and Kyler Murray to determine their starter for the 2026 NFL season. Nonetheless, even with the competition ongoing, many expect Murray to emerge victorious.Murray is looking to show that he’s still a starting QB despite the Arizona Cardinals cutting ties with him this offseason. […] The post J.J. McCarthy Receives Strong Take Amid Vikings QB Competition appeared first on HEAVY.
Arizona Republicans pick nominees Tuesday for governor and other top offices
Arizona Republicans are choosing nominees to challenge Democrats in key state offices
Maine Democratic Senate frontrunner faces scrutiny over alleged anger outbursts
Troy Jackson’s brash conduct raises alarm bells about his temperament as the nominee for a key Senate race, some critics said.
Live Results: Arizona midterm primary elections
Arizona Republicans will choose a nominee in a state primary Tuesday to challenge Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November.
UFC Freedom 250 Fails to Knock Out The Ratings
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) If UFC fans wanted one image to say, “Hey, Paramount+ is crushing it with their UFC rights deal,” I could provide that image. Here it is: (Reminder: this is my creation of the Nielsen Top 30, since Nielsen doesn’t combine the lists or include sports. I take all three lists and combine them. Some streaming TV shows probably have higher ratings than many of the films on this list.) Look at that! UFC Freedom 250 is number one! It topped the Nielsen “Top 30” list for shows and films that made the top ten the week of 15-June. So if you’re a UFC fan or supporter of Paramount+, that’s the good news for you this week. This program topped the ratings charts for one week. Everything else is bad news, or at least a huge caveat to that story, which I’ll explain today in the first part of this week’s Streaming Ratings Report—for the weeks of 8-June and 15-June—which is a double issue since I’ve been writing on a bunch of topics recently. UFC Freedom 250 is one of the biggest streaming events of the year, and super relevant to Paramount+’s strategy, so it merited its own article. Let’s dive in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of June 8th to June 21st 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Check Out My Interview on UFC 250 at MMA Draw After you read this article, if you want even more thoughts on UFC and Paramount-Skydance/Paramount+, I did a written interview with MMA Draw. They asked me to answer some questions about UFC Freedom 250, and I was happy to chat with them. Find it here: [ The MMA Draw Newsletter Did Paramount really overpay for the UFC? What the data tells us so far If you know the history of American television, you also know that combat sports is often a leading indicator of the future… Read more a day ago · 10 likes · 1 comment · Nate Wilcox and Zach Arnold ](https://www.themmadraw.com/p/did-paramount-really-overpay-for?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) I never thought I’d need a combat sports newsletter in my life, but the good folks at MMA Draw publish an excellent one on UFC, MMA, pro wrestling, boxing and more, analyzing both the sports themselves and the politics, economics and antitrust issues that impact them. Check the article and their newsletter out! Paramount+ Has Its Best Sporting Event of All Time…But Was It Worth It? Before we look at the UFC Freedom 250 data in particular, let’s talk about what we can’t say. Namely, let’s start with the lack of comparisons. First off, I’d love to put a chart out comparing this fight to past UFC fights on Paramount+…but we don’t have the data. This is the first time we’ve gotten Nielsen data about a Paramount+ UFC fight. As far as I can tell, Paramount provided data for the first fight, but it was a proprietary datecdote (saying it had “an average minute audience” of 5 million “views”) and then, for two fights, we got the linear viewership numbers when they aired on CBS, but no streaming data. Everything else was crickets. We also can’t compare this fight to other fights/combat sports on streaming, in particular the MMA and boxing, because Netflix also didn’t use Nielsen to track those events, opting for TVision and VideoAmp, respectively. (This isn’t Paramount’s fault, but does still suck.) We also can’t compare to UFC’s fights that used to be on ESPN+, since we don’t have any data for that, plus Disney+ didn’t have marquee fights. The comparisons would not be apples-to-apples. Can we compare to past Pay-Per-View fights? Absolutely not. The comparisons would absolutely NOT be apples-to-apples. That didn’t stop Paramount+, though, who bragged that their UFC events have reached drastically more people than past PPV fights. Duh. Sorry, but I gotta make this point again. A basic tenet of economics is that the cheaper something becomes, the more people consume or buy it. That’s Econ 101. (Sometimes pundits call things “Econ 101” that are actually like Econ 210 or even PhD-level economics, but no, this is really like first or second class basic economics.) Yet I still see one analytics firm consistently say that more people watch films on streaming than PVOD proves streaming which means that the streaming window is more valuable than the PVOD window. No, it’s not! Same thing here. Pay-Per-View events back in the day could be really, really, really expensive! So whole groups of people pitched in to buy them. That increased the perceived value of, say, the Mike Tyson fight. Or a UFC numbered event. So yes, the fact that Paramount+ makes numbered UFC fights essentially “free” if you’re already a Paramount+ member means consumption will go up. Obviously. Same for Netflix and their boxing matches. They’re talking about fights that used to cost consumers, in some cases, $50 in 1996…which is over $100 in today’s dollars. Over 1.6 million people paid that to watch the Tyson-Holyfield fight! Again, streaming is essentially “free”. Or $10 to $20, depending on what streamer we’re talking about and what tier you’re on. No wonder more people are “watching”. (Plus, Nielsen’s out-of-home viewing also helps these numbers.) UFC Freedom 250 Did Well…But I Have A Lot of Worries So what can we compare the fights to? Well, the good news is Nielsen put out that the fight averaged 7.0 million viewers for UFC Freedom 250, which is a solid number for a fight. We also know the length, at roughly 4 and a half hours. (I saw different run times, but this seems to be the consensus considering it started at 8 pm, had a delay and then finished after midnight on the East Coast. If you assume a shorter run time, then yes, the total hours viewed would go down.) That means I have the two numbers needed to add this to my Nielsen database. And then…I can compare this viewership to the NFL: And, uh, not great. But also within striking distance, mainly because the runtime for this event was so long. I’d also add that this event had viewership equal to a regular season NFL game on streaming, but if anything, it was more comparable to an NFL playoff or Super Bowl-esque event. And you can compare viewership to the top football games on broadcast, cable and streaming, and it’s not impressive at all: We can also compare it to other sports that week, including the NBA Finals and start of the World Cup: Again, not great. The NBA generated roughly four times as many average viewers each game for its NBA Finals. The World Cup has similarly big numbers. Also, that’s just a tiny fraction of the 25 most watched sporting events each week. The NBA, NHL and FIFA World Cup had many, many more games racking up hours. We could also compare this to other streaming programs to get an idea of “is this a good investment?” and here is how it ranks compared to other top Paramount+ programs: The worry here? Well, unlike scripted programming, which has rewatchability, older fights/sporting events have very little library value. Very, very few people are rewatching these fights, especially years from now. Paramount has also released datecdotes bragging about their subscriber numbers. Earlier this year, they claimed that the first UFC fight on Paramount+ brought in 1 million subscribers. Then, in their quarterly earnings report, they only ended up with 700K subs. Not great! They claimed they dropped lower-value international subscribers, but that’s why I tend to discount subscriber additions when they’re leaked to the press.1 I expect we may see a bump again for UFC Freedom 250, but I’d caution using subscriber growth so soon after these events to judge the success, since new subs with high churn (see Peacock) aren’t great either. Also, analysts often want to attribute all subscriber growth to their favorite/pet show, and that just doesn’t make sense. The biggest caveat for UFC Freedom 250 and Paramount’s very first UFC marquee event is that these could be high watermarks for the sport. UFC Freedom 250 had an incredible amount of earned media coverage compared to most UFC fights. I mean, it had wall-to-wall national news coverage in the lead up to the event. (The first fight also had a lot of promotion from Paramount since it was first.) Other fights could reach this bar—say the Conor McGregor return to the Octagon—but they’ll be fewer and far between. Was This Deal Worth It? All to ask: is this Paramount deal worth it? In this case, I think the UFC Freedom 250 numbers are more distracting than helpful. This fight did well and compares well to other top sporting events. But we know that the first marquee event was at least a third smaller, if Paramount’s own data is to be believed. And it’s likely the other fights are much, much, much smaller. And then you get to the paycheck that Paramount-Skydance paid. FIFA’s World Cup cost about the same for Fox, but clearly generated multiples more total viewership. (Though it’s only every four years.) The NBA is much more expensive, but until the playoffs, they likely didn’t pay for itself. Even still, Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon Prime Video likely overpaid. So, in that context, the NBA may be an overpay that makes the UFC look not so bad. But two overpays don’t make an underpay, to paraphrase the old cliché about wrongs and rights. And looking at UFC Freedom 250 as the likely ceiling of MMA on Paramount+, Paramount-Skydance likely paid too much. Share 1 I would love regular reports on subscriber additions by programs, but as is, it’s mostly leaked or rumored in haphazard ways.
Democrat set to replace Platner in Maine led state Senate with a temper
Troy Jackson, the presumptive Democratic nominee to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), yelled and cursed at fellow state lawmakers, interviews reveal.
John Droney Jr., prominent Democrat and lawyer, dead at 79
John F. Droney Jr., a Democratic state chairman under Gov. William O’Neill and a strategist for Joseph I. Lieberman, died Sunday.
What does the new British Prime Minister mean for Trump and Ukraine?
As Andy Burnham takes office as the U.K.’s Prime Minister, Northeastern University London experts examine the impact on global relations.
'I'm in.' Darline Graham says she will run for a full term in Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
The entrance of Darline Graham into the Republican scramble to select a new Senate nominee further complicates an already rushed process following Lindsey Graham's death earlier this month.
McCain: If 2028 Dem nominee has Mamdani’s tone on US politics, GOP has ‘huge f—ing problem’
Meghan McCain, the daughter of former Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), said Monday that if the 2028 presidential nominee for the Democrats shares New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s (D) tone about poli…
Troy Jackson emerges as likely Senate pick for Maine Democrats
Former Maine lawmaker and logger Troy Jackson is set to become the state's Democratic Senate nominee after Graham Platner's exit.
Clint Reilly, longtime San Francisco power broker, dies at 79
Clint Reilly advised some of California’s biggest political names, ran for San Francisco mayor and fought to preserve newspaper competition before purchasing the Examiner himself.
Eight Rams Named Nominees for 2026 HBCU Sports Awards
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. (July 17, 2026) – Eight Winston-Salem State University student-athletes and coaches have been named nominees for the 2026 HBCU Sports Awards, representing the Rams in eight individual award categories.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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