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Scientists say this type of olive oil could boost brain power
Extra virgin olive oil might help protect your brain by working through your gut. A two-year study found that people who consumed it had better cognitive performance and more diverse gut bacteria than those using refined olive oil. Researchers even identified specific microbes linked to these benefits. The findings suggest that choosing high-quality olive oil could be a simple way to support brain health as you age.
Which 2026 NFL Draft prospects could slide to later picks?
Expectations rarely align with reality in the NFL draft, and these five prospects could have a longer wait than many might have them pegged for.
The extreme positions Trump proposes
President Donald Trump this month threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure in ways that might well be war crimes. It’s his latest extreme move that polls show his GOP base has embraced.
It doesn’t matter how much you sit — walking more could lower your risk of death and disease
Sitting all day might not be as damaging as once feared—if you’re willing to move more. A massive study tracking over 72,000 people found that simply increasing daily steps can significantly reduce the risk of death and heart disease, even for those who spend long hours sedentary. Hitting around 9,000–10,000 steps a day delivered the biggest benefits, cutting mortality risk by nearly 40% and cardiovascular disease by over 20%.
Fiesta food safety: How Metro Health keeps vendor favorites safe
While Fiesta food might not be the healthiest, San Antonio Metropolitan Health District inspectors make sure it’s made safely.
K-Pop’s Biggest Labels Join Forces to Plan Coachella-Style Global Festival
A ‘K-pop Coachella’ might be coming. The industry’s biggest players are in talks to launch a massive global event.
Gavin Newsom chooses the wrong side of gender politics again
Sex changes for illegal immigrants might sound like a Republican ad, but it’s California policy.
Apple to Unveil iOS 27 in June With These New Features Beyond Siri
Apple is expected to unveil iOS 27 during its WWDC 2026 keynote on June 8, and the update should be released in September. Below, we outline some of the new features that are rumored to be coming with iOS 27, beyond the long-awaited more personalized version of Siri. iOS 27 will reportedly support 5G satellite internet connectivity, although this functionality might be limited to the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro models with Apple's next-generation C2 modem.
Scientists May Have Finally Solved the Mystery of Christopher Columbus’ Origins
Christopher Columbus purposely kept his ancestry a mystery during his life. But unfortunately for him, some researchers might have solved it.
The Politics of Loving Kindness: Insights from a Birth Equity Initiative | Nonprofit Quarterly | Civic News. Empowering Nonprofits. Advancing Justice.
What might happen across our country if those working to make life better for our neighbors embraced the politics of loving kindness? What if we were explicit about caring for all people, more than corporations or profit?
Porsche Just Smashed The Mustang GTD's Nürburgring Lap Time - How Long Will That Last?
A Manthey-tuned 992.1 GT3 RS has just taken nearly 7 seconds out of the Mustang GTD's lap time, but Ford might already be working on a response.
A new Android 17 beta reveals plans for “Pixel Glow” light animations.
Google just released the fourth beta for Android 17 today, and now, 9to5Google and Android Authority point out that it contains mentions of a new lighting feature that we might see on the next round of Pixel phones. The Pixel Glow details say it “uses subtle light and color on the back of your device to inform you of important activity when it’s face down,” when interacting with Gemini, or when favorite contacts are calling. [Link: Pixel Glow 'visual feedback' tool might just hint at big Pixel 11 hardware changes | https://www.androidauthority.com/pixel-glow-3658443/ | Android Authority]
Pixel Glow 'visual feedback' tool might just hint at big Pixel 11 hardware changes
Is Google bringing rear RGB lights to the Pixel 11 series? References to a "Pixel Glow" tool in Android 17 Beta 4 raise the possibility.
‘This moment of bipartisan agreement might not last’
Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
Only the champions might be happy with Minnesota’s student-athlete transfer system
Inside an imperfect system: Because the high school league is “not an investigative body,” athletic directors own the burden of enforcing Minnesota’s trust-based transfer process. Coaches are often caught in the middle, too.
The medical AI revolution requires rethinking health care's architecture
"Instead of organizing health data around institutions, we might organize it around individuals," write Meta's Freddy Abnousi and Stanford's Celina Yong.
Contingency plans in place for possible food shortages if Iran war continues, minister confirms
Peter Kyle did not dispute Times’ report that under a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ supermarkets might start running out of some items
AirPods Max 2 Review: A Bigger Upgrade Than You Think
You might not be able to tell the difference between the AirPods Max 2 and the originals at a glance, but the internal upgrades are a big deal.
Old And Unsupported Kindles Might Become The Best Tech Deal Of 2026
Older Kindles may become the best tech deal of 2026 because they'll get cheaper, and you'll still be able read your favorite books in multiple digital formats.
Burning Questions about Adobe Premiere Beta's new dedicated Color Mode by Scott Simmons
Just in time for NAB 2026, Adobe has released into the Premiere Beta what might be one of its biggest feature additions in the history of the application, in a new dedicated Color Mode. Color Mode is a dedicated workspace for color correction and color grading. It’s been designed with everything one needs for color [...]Read More... from Burning Questions about Adobe Premiere Beta’s new dedicated Color Mode
Scientists think alien life might be hiding in patterns
A new study proposes detecting life in space by spotting patterns across many planets instead of focusing on one at a time. If life spreads and changes planetary environments, it could leave behind statistical clues linking planets together. These patterns may reveal life even when traditional biosignatures are unclear or misleading. The method could help scientists prioritize which planets are most likely to host life.
A new way to detect life beyond Earth without knowing what life looks like
Researchers from the Earth-Life Science Institute (ELSI) and National Institute for Basic Biology have developed a new method to detect extraterrestrial life without relying on traditional biosignatures. By modelling how life might spread between planets, they demonstrate that life could be detected through statistical patterns across planetary populations rather than on individual planets. This "agnostic biosignature" approach could assist in guiding future searches for life beyond Earth.
Miami Dolphins' facility becomes land of opportunity for underdogs
By starting from scratch, the Miami Dolphins represent an opportunity for players who might not get much of a look elsewhere.
Beyond the Algorithm: The business of fun
Depending on the setting, Chris Davenport might describe his career in a number of ways, but if he had to distill it into a single phrase, he would probably say: professional risk manager. Over decades in the mountains...
Louisiana political donors would have addresses redacted from public reports under bill
The Louisiana Legislature might block the public from seeing the addresses of political donors who give money to election campaigns starting Aug. 1.
Despite Israeli firepower, Netanyahu struggles for political gains in Iran war
The Iran war was meant to deliver a defining victory over Tehran that would secure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's place in history. More than six weeks into the conflict, he has been unable to translate military might into political gain.
Toilet tech is the next frontier of health data — but it might mean putting a camera on your bowl
The Post tried three of the latest toilet health trackers to see if they're worth opening your wallet — and your bathroom door.
April rules sporting world with its long list of chaos, thrills and classic moments
The Grand National, Masters, Paris-Roubaix and Champions League put it ahead of even July’s mighty trifecta
Weird Stat Shows Why Yankees' Offense Might be Struggling
It's been a somewhat interesting start to the 2026 campaign for the New York Yankees. On the surface, I'm not too upset with how New York has played.
OTB Staff: 3 Bold Predictions for 2026-2027 Rutgers Sports
As the 2025-2026 athletic year nears its end, with just the spring sports left to play, it is time to look ahead to the 2026-2027 athletic year. We here at On The Banks will each make three bold predictions about what the next year of Rutgers sports might have in store for us. Let us […]
RAMageddon has come for Microsoft’s Surface Pro and Surface Laptop
Surface devices might have a harder time competing against Apple.
Trump Family Deal Spree Could Open Door for Future Presidents to Profit From Office
NEW YORK (AP) — For decades, presidents avoided even the appearance of profiting from their office. Harry Truman refused to lend his name to any business, even in retirement. Richard Nixon so feared a brother might profit off their ties, he had his phone tapped. And George W. Bush dumped his ...
Trump Attacks Pope Leo as Too Liberal and ‘Weak on Crime’
President Trump’s lengthy post on social media showed there were really no boundaries when it comes to people he might target, including the leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics.
Trump Says Gas Prices Might Not Drop By Midterms, Highlighting G.O.P. Peril
The president has sent mixed messages on how long he expects costs to be high. Some in his party voiced fresh concern after his comments on Sunday.
Who Had “New OS For The Z80” On Their 2026 Bingo Card?
Some might say the venerable Z80 doesn’t need another operating system, but [Scott Baker] obviously disagrees. He has come up with a brand new, from scratch OS called NostOS for the Z80-based…
Nancy Guthrie Update: Expert Names ‘Most Likely’ Source of Suspect’s DNA
DNA is ‘hardy,’ says CeCe Moore, and one source might be investigators’ best hope at learning what happened to Nancy Guthrie.
Nancy Guthrie Update: Expert Names ‘Most Likely’ Source of Suspect’s DNA
DNA is ‘hardy,’ says CeCe Moore, and one source might be investigators’ best hope at learning what happened to Nancy Guthrie.
From LLMs to hallucinations, here's a simple guide to common AI terms
The rise of AI has brought an avalanche of new terms and slang. Here is a glossary with definitions of some of the most important words and phrases you might encounter.
Hawai‘i Might Just Slay Citizens United — And You Can Help
We have the authority — and the responsibility — to get rid of dark money.
Are ancient grains better for you? The surprising truth about quinoa and spelt
Is the hype around the health benefits of ancient grains justified? Scientists say its not as clear-cut as you might think.
Bengals’ mid-round targets hinted with latest NFL draft visit
Another Bengals visit hints at what the team might want to do in the second round and beyond.
Life on Mars? Tiny cells just survived shock waves and toxic soil
Mars may be hostile, but it might not be entirely unlivable. In lab experiments, yeast cells survived simulated Martian shock waves and toxic perchlorate salts—two major environmental threats on the Red Planet. Their secret weapon was forming protective molecular clusters that shield critical cellular functions under stress. Without these defenses, survival plummeted, pointing to a potential universal strategy life could use beyond Earth.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Your nose could detect Alzheimer’s years before symptoms begin
Losing your sense of smell might signal Alzheimer’s far earlier than expected. Scientists found that immune cells in the brain actively destroy smell-related nerve fibers after detecting abnormal signals on their surfaces. This damage begins in early stages of the disease, well before cognitive decline. The discovery could help identify at-risk patients sooner and improve treatment timing.
I tested the AirPods Max 2, Sony WH-1000XM6, and Bose QuietComfort Ultra — here's the only pair I’d keep
This might ruffle some feathers
Could treble hero Dante return to Bayern Munich as coach?
Pep Guardiola's favorite player might return soon.
Science of seismic proportions
Arizona’s deserts might not be situated on a tectonic plate boundary where geographical activity can cause earthquakes, but that doesn’t make the state immune from the disturbance of tremors.It has been 139 years since Arizona’s strongest recorded earthquake on the Pitaycachi fault struck in 1887. The 7.5 magnitude event, known as the Sonoran Earthquake, took place near the southeastern Arizona-Mexico border.
Artemis II reentry will create a sonic boom. Here’s how to report it
Southern Californians might hear a sonic boom as NASA's Artemis II moon mission reenters the atmosphere off the coast of San Diego Friday evening, the U.S. Geological Survey said.
Health‑coverage decisions in retirement can shape when and how federal retirees tap their money
You've got to be careful about the tax planning and also what you might expect in the future down the road," said Tammy Flanagan.
Harry Cohen banks $144K in Q1 for re-election, but he might wind up unopposed
Cohen's opponent doesn't live in the district.
Kamala Harris says she ‘might’ run for president in 2028. Is she what Democrats are looking for?
Level-5 Release Dates Still Up In The Air For Some Potential 2026 Titles
Plus, Decapolice might just be coming to Switch 2 now
Scientists think dark matter might come in two forms
A mysterious glow of gamma rays at the center of the Milky Way has long hinted at dark matter, but the lack of similar signals in smaller dwarf galaxies has cast doubt on that idea. Now, researchers propose a bold twist: dark matter might not be a single particle at all, but a mix of two different types that must interact with each other to produce detectable signals.
Cowboys trade rumors could impact Bengals on draft night
The Cowboys might be trading around the top 10. It could hurt (or help) the Bengals.
5 Android phones you should buy instead of the Samsung Galaxy A57
The Galaxy A57 is a really solid Android deal at just $550. But for some people, these five other phones might be better options.
Is a Big Album Dropping? You Might Want to Watch the Road.
A study found that traffic fatalities increased in the United States by nearly 15 percent on the same days as the biggest album releases.
Penn researchers use AI to surface unreported GLP-1 side effects in Reddit posts
Could mining Reddit with AI help spot drug side effects earlier? A new Penn study suggests it might. Using large language models to map patient posts to standardized medical terms, researchers analyzed more than 400,000 Reddit posts about GLP-1s and found both known side effects and possibly underrecognized symptoms, like menstrual changes. The team says the approach could eventually help generate early safety signals for other drugs and wellness trends discussed online.
Mark Andrews has interesting response to Ravens' TE room changes
It was a strength, now it might not be.
Restaurant, entertainment venue proposed for Whitestown
A family-family friendly restaurant and entertainment venue with duckpin bowling and golf simulators might be coming to Whitestown.
GHD’s Adrienne Young named to North Bay Business Journal’s Forty Under 40 of 2026
“You have to learn to trust your own judgment and speak up around other technical experts. And it can be intimidating when you might be the youngest person on that project team.”
Windows and Xbox are now prioritizing user feedback in a huge pivot ... but why now? I can't help but be suspicious — it smells a bit like panic.
Is Microsoft's big AI push falling off the rails? Possibly, but not for the reasons you might think.
Has ‘Grey’s Anatomy’ Already Done a Bridge Collapse Disaster Before?
We dig into the archives to find out why this storyline might seem familiar to fans.
How a series of ‘left turns’ led to wearable health tech breakthroughs at UCLA
In an alternate world, UCLA professor Anne Andrews might be a CIA agent. But in this one, she’s a scientist breaking new ground measuring chemicals in the brain and body.
Samsung reportedly launching Galaxy Z Fold 8, ‘Wide’ on July 22, S Pen might be back
A new report claims to reveal the launch date for Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 8 and “Wide” foldable in July,...
Burcum: Out-of-state ownership might be the right prescription for Allina Health
"Minnesota is on the verge of a momentous health care deal, with California-based Sutter Health recently moving to acquire Minneapolis-based Allina Health," columnist Jill Burcum writes.
Which U.S. metros have the highest health spending? The answer might surprise you
There's not a consistent theme among the 10 highest and lowest spending metros, which highlights the “irrationality” of U.S. health care spending, experts say.
Oppo details most powerful phone camera system ever; compares it to iPhone 17 Pro
Oppo has finally revealed the Oppo Find X9 Ultra’s full, revolutionary camera system. With a massive light intake advantage over older Samsung phones with 10x zoom, and record-breaking 1x and 3x zoom camera, the Find X9 Ultra might just be the best camera phone of 2026 - potentially outclassing the likes of the Xiaomi 17 Ultra, Vivo X300 Ultra, iPhone 17 Pro, and Galaxy S26 Ultra.
Washington State Ousted This Health Insurance Lookalike. In Oregon, It Carries On.
From one vantage, the story of Zion HealthShare shows Washington to be an overzealous nanny state. From another perspective, Oregon might stand to learn from its consumer-protection-minded neighbor to the north.
MAGA’s favorite strongman might be on the brink of defeat
We’re about to find out whether an authoritarian can lose at the ballot box.
Poulsbo’s Away With Words offers gifts for body and mind
Poulsbo's Away With Words is easier to get to than one might think and offers a unique blend of books and handmade bath and body products.
The rumoured Switch 2 Star Fox game could be announced this month, trusted leaker says
Following the initial claim that a new Star Fox game is coming to Nintendo Switch 2, leaker Nate the Hate is saying it might be announced in April.
Notre Dame mailbag: Do the Irish have more ‘dudes’ than Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia?
Plus: A reader question about how the Irish might honor the memory of Lou Holtz next season.
Artemis II astronauts have a message for Earth. Will political leaders listen?
The Artemis II astronauts have shared messages of unity and beauty from their vantage point in space. The Dakota Political Junkies consider what this moment might mean for political discourse.
US on Iran: Does the World Need a Superpower Running Amok?
The US-Israel duo, adrift in a sea of intellectual and moral destitution, might risk the use of tactical nuclear weapons to defeat Iran.
Is ‘lab-grown’ meat actually safe?
It isn’t identical to regular meat, but that might be a good thing.
MAGA Is Winning Its War Against U.S. Science
Source: NBER With all the other terrible news right now, you may not have noticed that Donald Trump is in the process of killing American science. OK, that’s an exaggeration — but not that much of an exaggeration. The Trump administration’s latest budget proposal calls for a gigantic increase in military spending combined with severe cuts to social programs. But as the chart above shows, it also calls for debilitating reductions in research funding. Furthermore, Trump appointees have already been strangling science by sharply reducing the rate at which research grants are approved. Here, for example, is the number of new grants approved by the National Science Foundation: Source: Nature Large numbers of existing grants have also been frozen or terminated, especially in the study of infectious diseases. Add to this a sharp drop in visas issued to foreign students, who often play a direct role in research and who help support academic departments that do research: Put all of this together, and much U.S. scientific research is set to come to a screeching halt — not a few years from now, but over the course of the next year or two. This new assault on U.S. science is taking place at a time when the role of American science in the world has already been greatly eroded. The chart below, based on research recently reported by the National Bureau of Economic Research, measures national strength in science by the share of publications in highly ranked journals. In the 1990s the United States had more such publications than the rest of the world combined. Since then we’ve dropped into third place — well behind China and slightly below the European Union. And this was before the Trump administration’s attack on science had time to take its full effect. Source Some erosion in U.S. scientific preeminence was inevitable given China’s growing sophistication and wealth. But we’ve also fallen behind Europe, even though everyone says that Europe is lagging economically and technologically. Claims about Europe’s underperformance are, in fact, dubious if one looks hard at the data. But it’s still striking to see America lagging. What’s going on? There are presumably multiple factors behind America’s scientific lag. But even before Trump II the growing hostility of the U.S. right to science surely had some negative effect. And since the rise of MAGA G.O.P. attitudes toward science in general have become overwhelmingly hostile. This is true even for the Republican rank and file: And while I haven’t been able to find good survey data, it’s obvious that the anti-science turn has been even more pronounced — and began earlier — among the Republican political elite. Chris Mooney published The Republican War on Science in 2005, and even then was describing a longstanding trend. Why have Republicans turned so anti-science? Part of the answer is that they believe that scientists don’t support them. And they’re right! A study of who scientists give money to shows that only a small percentage gave money to Republicans even 20 years ago, and that almost none of them donate to Republicans now: Social scientists have always been strongly pro-Democratic, while there used to be a significant number of physical, “hard” scientists supporting the GOP. But these days physicists are almost as uniformly Democratic, or at least non-Republican, as sociologists. Why are there almost no Republican scientists? It’s not a mystery. GOP political orthodoxy includes positions that are at odds with the scientific consensus on multiple issues, ranging from the validity of the theory of evolution, to the reality of climate change, to the efficacy and safety of vaccines. In each case the scientific consensus is solidly grounded in evidence. But even before the rise of MAGA the U.S. right was increasingly hostile to evidence-based policymaking — especially, of course, where the evidence is unfavorable to fossil fuel interests or quack medicine, both financial mainstays of right-wing politics. So scientists don’t support Republicans, and the feeling is mutual. Today’s Republican Party doesn’t like science or scientists. It doesn’t like having its preconceived views challenged by appeals to evidence. It knows that very few scientists are on its side electorally. In general, it sees scientific research as a threat to its grasp on political power. Add in MAGA’s combination of rabid anti-intellectualism and allergy to any hint of criticism, and one has the makings of a drastic anti-science turn in policy. “Ignorance is strength” might was well be an official MAGA motto. And as I said, we aren’t talking about something that will happen over the course of multiple years: The U.S. scientific enterprise is threatened with severe damage, even collapse, over just the next year. There are many reasons to find this prospect horrifying: Think of all the beneficial advances, affecting almost every part of life, that won’t happen because U.S. science — still crucial to the world — has been eviscerated. But think, also, of America’s international standing. Can a nation that has forfeited its role as a leader, or even a contender, in global science, still be a Great Power? No. MUSICAL CODA
Michigan, UCLA basketball help Big Ten's championship expansion, and it's only widening
A tough Big Ten proved its might as quarter-century title droughts dropped, and the league did something no other league had done since 1996-97.
The Michigan Wolverines won a title by mastering college basketball’s new world. It might change the sport
Michigan, a team that has performed like a freight train in this NCAA tournament, won the national title – the Big Ten’s first in 26 years – by playing more like a bulldozer.
Guardians add 24-year old infielder, signaling injury concern
Cleveland might need a replacement.
Black-owned businesses considering Draft Bash event one mile from NFL Draft theater
Nearly 100 Black-owned businesses might set up at Allegheny Commons Park when the NFL Draft kicks off on the North Shore.
Trump’s many threats of possible war crimes reach a crescendo in Iran
After more than a decade floating actions that might constitute war crimes, US President Donald Trump is threatening to make good on such threats in Iran.
Samsung follows Apple and turns your Galaxy S26 Ultra into a broadcast camera
Live sports might never look the same after this.
Google Pixel teases ‘exclusive’ new model, and we might already know what it is
We’re not due for any new Google Pixel phones in the near future, but a surprise teaser has just dropped...
The brain might not create consciousness after all
Is consciousness something the brain produces, or is it woven into the fabric of reality itself? Renowned neuroscientist Christof Koch is challenging long-held scientific assumptions by confronting the “hard problem” of consciousness — why and how subjective experience exists at all. He highlights growing tensions between neuroscience, physics, and unexplained phenomena like near-death experiences and sudden moments of clarity before death.
Popular rock band cancels, postpones tour dates due to family health crisis
If you were planning on seeing Cold on tour in the near future, you might have to wait a bit longer.
Asian shares mostly gain while oil prices keep rising
Asian markets that are open for trading are mostly rising as investors continue to closely watch the war in Iran, soaring oil prices and what President Donald Trump might say next
Asian shares mostly gain while oil prices keep rising
Asian markets that are open for trading are mostly rising as investors continue to closely watch the war in Iran, soaring oil prices and what President Donald Trump might say next.
Move Over Anbernic, the GAMEMT E5 ModX Might Be The Weirdest Handheld of the Year
The GAMEMT E5 ModX may be one of the strangest handhelds we’ve seen in a while, blending controller, vertical, and horizontal gaming in one device.
5 Signs Your Foot Pain Might Be Plantar Fasciitis
If your heels hurt at the end of the day – or even just standing still – it could be plantar fasciitis. Here are signs to watch for.
Is it okay to eat standing up? A doctor weighs in.
That grab-and-go lunch might be the real problem.
New York Jets Flight Connections 04/05/26
Happy Easter Sunday, Jets fans! Below are your links for the day. Brian Costello – What Jets might do at quarterback in 2026 NFL Draft Rich Cimini – With Sabres playoff berth, Jets own longest active playoff drought Andrew Crane – Jets now by themselves for longest-active playoff drought with Sabres clinching berth after 14 […]
Surprising links between autism, Alzheimer’s could change how we treat both
The idea that two conditions at opposite ends of life might be biologically linked is beginning to upend long-standing assumptions in brain science, blurring a divide that has shaped the field.
Surprising links between autism, Alzheimer’s could change how we treat both
The idea that two conditions at opposite ends of life might be biologically linked is beginning to upend long-standing assumptions in brain science, blurring a divide that has shaped the field.
Portland warns outdoor dining setups could pose health risks without proper maintenance
If you are planning to enjoy the warm weather by dining outside, you might want to check before you take your seat.
Your Odin 3 Might Not Actually Use the Snapdragon 8 Elite, but There’s More to the Story
The Odin 3’s chip story just got messier, as AYN replaces Snapdragon 8 Elite branding with Dragonwing Q8 across its official landing page.
Why Spring Cleaning Is Good for Your Home AND Your Health
While spring cleaning might feel like just another thing on your to-do list, it can actually do more for your health than you might expect.
The Secret to Healthy Eating Might Not Be What You Eat
It's not just dietary intake that's important.