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No, Xbox's Obsidian studio ISN'T shutting down — new comments dispute closure claims
Fresh rumors claimed Obsidian could shut down, but a new report says the acclaimed Xbox studio isn't going anywhere.
Inaugural Memorial Hillbilly Skydivers Boogie Convention and Blues Festival set
HUNTINGTON — This year, the organizers of the Appalachian Blues Festival and the West Virginia Skydivers Association have joined together to create a new event called the Memorial Hillbilly Boogie
American dessert taste test: McDonald's, Burger King, Wienerschnitzel
I ranked fast food desserts from McDonald's, Burger King, Krispy Kreme and Wienerschnitzel to find the best patriotic treat.
An AP journalist describes a month in the epicenter of Congo’s Ebola outbreak
An Associated Press journalist spent a month in the epicenter of Congo's Ebola outbreak documenting the toll and the challenges for health workers in a conflict zone.
Imai Implodes Again, Astros Blasted by Twins 8-3
It’s never a good sign when your first mile feels like you’ve already run a full marathon. For Tatsuyi Imai, the outing was quick and ugly. Twins 8 Astros 3. Imai’s early game struggles were on full display before an announced crowd of 29,179. In the opening several minutes, Trevor Larnach […]
Opinion: Proposed federal grant rules are attempt to ‘muzzle’ science | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
A proposed overhaul in how federal grants are awarded is aimed at shutting down scientific research on disfavored topics such as health disparities, climate change, gender identity, and vaccines, according to Harvard Chan School’s Nancy Krieger.
Krafton settles with Subnautica 2 developer after drawn-out dispute over $250 million
The battle is over.
Brand New The Blood of Dawnwalker Gameplay Showcases Coen’s Investigation Skills and a Boss Battle Against the Eerie Forgotten Guardian
See Coen's investigation and fighting skills on full display in this quest gameplay from The Blood of Dawnwalker.
Krafton Agrees to Pay ‘Subnautica 2’ Bonuses as Developer’s CEO Resigns
After being fired over a $250 million payout dispute and then reinstated, Unknown Worlds Entertainment boss Ted Gill is leaving again
Business Income Has Moved Beyond Corporations, and Tax Policy Must Follow
Since the 1980s, partnerships have displaced traditional C corporations as the largest source of business income, transforming business taxation and contributing to rising economic inequality.
US cooking oil market shrinking due to Ice pressures on Latino households, Mazola owner says
Economic squeeze and anti-immigration raids have hit Hispanic communities, prompting people to shop online and reuse oil
CHI Health urges fireworks safety ahead of Fourth of July holiday
Cumberland Farms completes $830m sale of Australian business
The disposal ends Cumberland Farms’ operations in Australia.
Celebrate America's birthday with area parades, fireworks and festivities
From fireworks displays and patriotic parades to live music and food trucks, the Blackstone Valley is ready to celebrate Independence Day with a variety of festive traditions. This year’s Fourth
Business - Trump made over $1 billion thanks to crypto in 2025
Meta is adding ridiculous ‘rate limits’ and a soft paywall to its smart glasses
Meta is rate-limiting on-device features.
Wyoming Department of Health Warns Residents About Spoofing Calls
CHEYENNE, WY — The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) is alerting residents to a recent phone scam where bad actors are “spoofing” official department phone numbers to solicit personal information. “Spoofing” is a form of scamming where a bad actor manipulates a caller ID to display a different phone number, often displaying the information of […]
The Lasting Consequences of Bad Climate Science
The retirement of flawed baseline emissions scenarios will initiate changes across energy policy, regulation, and law.
Supreme Court agrees to review ban on AR-style semi-automatic rifles in major Second Amendment case
The Supreme Court announced Tuesday that it will decide whether cities and states may ban people from owning AR-15 rifles and similar semiautomatic weapons, taking up a major Second Amendment dispute that it had previously declined to address.
Venezuela quake: key services crippled and health workers missing
Search and rescue operations continued in Venezuela on Tuesday as thousands of displaced people struggled to find shelter and humanitarians warned about the spread of infectious disease.
Landlord-tenant spat at center of Highland Park's retail losses
Uncharacteristic store closures in popular Highland Park linked to landlord-tenant dispute that's headed to court.
The next test of the democratic socialist movement and other key races to watch in Colorado’s primaries
Democratic rifts over ideology, generation change and how best to take on President Donald Trump will be on display Tuesday in Colorado, as voters settle primaries for governor and a key House race, weigh ousting two mainstays of the state’s Democratic landscape and more.
Floodwaters, oil and health fears in South Sudan
Flooding has submerged oil wells in Unity State since 2021, fueling contamination fears among war-displaced communities, though scientific evidence remains limited.
Business - French heatwave threatens food inflation as agriculture sector suffers
Nintendo Switch 2 Owners Face a New Hardware Lottery, as Upgraded LCD Revision Could Split Buyers Into Winners and Losers
A new Nintendo Switch 2 LCD panel leak points to a hardware revision potentially fixing the handheld's ghosting issues.
CWA union says Xbox workers are not "disposable" as layoffs loom
"The money is there. Leadership is simply choosing where it goes and who pays"
Future OLED Macs and iPads could support a much wider color gamut, per report
As Apple gears up to bring OLED to the Mac, a new TrendForce report looks at the wider color gamut reportedly planned for future MacBook Pro, iPad Pro, and iMac displays.
ROSES-25 A.12 HAMAQ Science Team Clarified
Hemispheric Airborne Measurements of Air Quality (HAMAQ) is a NASA-funded project under the EVS-4 program using two aircraft (NASA’s B777 & P-3B) to
A New Playbook: State-Driven Solutions for Resilient Health Data
Health equity depends on data equity: the representation of communities in the data used to identify disparities, target interventions, and hold systems accountable.
KARE 11 Spotlights Mental Health at USA Games through Special Olympics Strong Minds
KARE 11 visited Special Olympics Strong Minds to hear from USA Games athletes and volunteers about how the screening aims to address the mental health disparities faced by people with intellectual and developmental disabilities.
ScottsMiracle-Gro names new CEO as longtime leader exits
The Marysville-based national lawn and garden manufacturer has announced some big leadership changes, effective immediately.
DF Weekly: The GTA 6 60fps Debate Returns: Is There a Route Forward on Current-Gen Consoles Like Series X, PS5 or PS5 Pro?
Or is a 40fps mode for 120Hz displays the most we can hope for?
Supreme Court rejects legal battle over New York's COVID-19 vaccine mandate for healthcare workers
The dispute arose after New York's Department of Health issued an emergency rule that required healthcare workers to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
Apple Plans Wider Color Gamut for Future MacBook Pro, iMac, and iPad Pro
Apple plans to adopt OLED panels capable of displaying a much wider range of colors, according to a new report from research firm TrendForce. The new panels would cover 95% of the BT.2020 color standard, which describes a far broader spectrum of colors than the DCI-P3 standard Apple's screens currently target. In practice, that means deeper, more accurate reds, greens, and blues.
Flipper Device's new Busy Bar is a customizable display for productivity
Flipper Device's new Busy Bar will retail for $249.
The Flipper Zero creators’ Busy Bar productivity display will go on sale next month
The Busy Bar will let others know when you don’t have time to chat.
The Latest: Trump says Iran wants a meeting. Tehran says nothing's scheduled
President Donald Trump says Iran requested a meeting that would happen Tuesday in Qatar, but Tehran says nothing's scheduled.
Central College to offer data science major this fall
Central College will offer a new data science major starting this fall, bringing together STEM, social sciences and humanities teaching.
Talawar Therapeutics and JATT II Acquisition Corp. Announce Definitive Business Combination Agreement to Create Publicly Listed Biotechnology Company Developing Potentially Best-in-Class Bispecifics for I&I Diseases
Oversubscribed $225 million concurrent private investment in public equity ("PIPE") with available cash to the combined company at closing anticipated to fund...
2026 BET Awards: The 5 biggest moments of celebration and remembrance
Family and sisterhood were on display at the 2026 BET Awards at the Peacock Theater with wins for Cardi B, SZA and Doechii, and tributes to D'Angelo and Lauryn Hill.
iPhone 18e Won't Get ProMotion Display, Says Leaker
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18e will have the same display refresh rate as the existing iPhone 17e, according to a prominent Chinese leaker. Discussing Apple's product plans for 2027 in a Weibo post, Digital Chat Station claimed that the next generation of Apple's low-cost iPhone will feature the same 60Hz low-temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS) TFT panel as the current model.
PPDS Brings 'Limitless' TV Entertainment To Historic 5 Star Bellevue Syrene Hotel With Philips MediaSuite
PPDS, the exclusive global provider of Philips Professional Displays, has announced that its Philips MediaSuite TV range has been chosen to deliver seamless access to a virtually limitless world of | Delivering modern luxuries to the 18th century hotel in Sorrento, Philips MediaSuite TVs with cast built in are now bringing seamless access to millions of movies, TV shows, games, and streaming apps to guests at one of Italy's most prestigious and exquisite hospitality destinations.
Uneven access to radiology AI could deepen healthcare disparities
New Neiman research explores how Medicare's New Technology Add-On Payment has impacted use of an AI triage tool for pinpointing severe strokes.
Choose central Ohio's boys high school Athlete of the Year for 2025-26
Dispatch.com readers can choose central Ohio's boys Athlete of the Year. You have until 4 p.m. July 3 to vote.
RedMagic officially confirms global launch of flagship OLED tablet
RedMagic has confirmed the Astra 2 as its next flagship gaming tablet. The device will arrive as the international version of the China-bound RedMagic Gaming Tablet 5 Pro, which is confirmed to feature a 185Hz OLED display and the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 chipset.
Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 Gets Disappointing Display News Before Release
Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra won't have a privacy screen despite it being a key Galaxy S26 Ultra feature. Here's what that means for the phone's price ahead of launch.
Apple working on M7 Ultra Mac Studio for 2028 with potential major upgrade: report
Later this year, Apple will be debuting an updated version of the Mac Studio with M5 Max and M5 Ultra...
I found a hidden Google Maps feature that made my Pixel's always-on display useful
A hidden Maps trick worth turning on
Dispatch reporter Emma Wozniak covers real estate development, business
From lawsuits to high-rises to market trends, here's how Emma Wozniak covers real estate and business news in Columbus.
Astronomers find biggest super-puff planets yet, lighter than cotton candy
Comparable to shaving foam, astronomers find the wispiest planets yet. They're in the southern "flying fish" constellation.
Belkin launches new 14-in-1 Thunderbolt 5 dock with 140W charging and triple 4K display support
Belkin has launched a 14-in-1 Thunderbolt 5 Dock in China priced at 2,299 yuan (approximately $338). The Belkin dock ships with a 180W adapter and 1m cable and delivers 140W USB Power Delivery over a single Thunderbolt 5 connection, with bandwidth scaling from 80Gbps to 120Gbps for high-resolution display use. Belkin briefly listed the dock on its global website at $350 before removing the page, hinting at a global launch.
Community baby shower in Landover aims to address disparities, promote healthier lifestyles
This weekend in Prince George’s County, people came together for a community baby shower aimed at promoting healthier lifestyles among Black and Brown families across the DMV. With a lot of energy and laughter in the room, hundreds of people gathered at Prince George’s Sports and Learning Complex in Landover. The free event offered support for expecting mothers and parents…
Belkin launches new 14-in-1 Thunderbolt 5 dock with 140W PD charging & triple 4K 144Hz display support
Belkin launches a 14-in-1 Thunderbolt 5 dock with 140W PD charging, 120Gbps bandwidth, triple 4K@144Hz display support, and 14 connectivity ports.
Mary Means Business: Raising Cane's eyes Starkville location
I’m about to act a fool, because it looks like Raising Cane’s is finally on its way to Starkville. The, in my opinion, premier chicken joint is officially
What’s Happening: RI Small business shopping village
This summer, local entrepreneurs and small businesses will have their work on display at Providence Place.
"This doesn’t represent pre-order data," Xbox disputes reports of PS5 crushing GTA 6 preorder demand
As rumors of a massive sales gap circulate, Xbox sets the record straight on why affiliate clicks are not the same as console sales.
Marine biobanks: the science of 'stopping time' for an ecosystem under pressure
In labs around the world, the ocean is being kept in jars. Some of it is alive, bubbling in flasks, while some lies frozen in liquid nitrogen. These marine biobanks are collections of coral cells, algae,…
Melissa Etheridge: 'We're going to rock your toes off'
Melissa Etheridge is a survivor. For starters, try coming out publicly as a lesbian in January 1992 at a time when entertainers didn’t do that kind of thing; surviving breast
Meloni and Trump: A very public Italy-US fallout that is proving very hard to fix
Italy's PM was not long ago being called the "Trump whisperer", but their relationship has gone from public attacks to personal insults.
Confederate flag displayed at N.C. exhibit at America's State Fair
A flag featured in the North Carolina exhibit at America’s State Fair on Washington’s National Mall is drawing some unwanted attention.
AI-assisted colonoscopy enhances polyp detection at UT Health San Antonio Multispecialty and Research Hospital
Contact: Steven Lee, (210) 450-3823, lees22@uthscsa.edu Content provided by Kristen Zapata SAN ANTONIO, June 29, 2026 – A routine colonoscopy may last less than an hour. But what happens during that procedure can change, or even save, a life years before cancer ever has a chance to develop. Physicians at The University of Texas at San […]
Nebraska Hispanic Chamber of Commerce holds networking event for Omaha businesses
Watch: Omaha business leaders met at Mexico's consulate to network with the Nebraska Hispanic Chamber of Commerce
Civility advocates look for ways to restore 'Iowa Nice' to campaigns, public discourse
A group of former and current officeholders are looking to encourage civility by encouraging civic participation and civil interactions.
Amid lingering disparities, Tulsa business leaders explore how to increase diversity
Tulsa business leaders discussed how workplace diversity and inclusion can strengthen economic growth during the Tulsa Regional Chamber's State of Inclusion event.
Pacquiao and Mayweather rematch postponed indefinitely
The rematch between boxing greats Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather has been postponed indefinitely because of a host of reasons, with contract disputes the main factor.
Apple's OLED 'MacBook Ultra' Will Stick With M5 Pro and M5 Max Chips
Apple's upcoming high-end MacBook model featuring an OLED touchscreen display will use the company's current M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. The new, top-of-the-line device will launch "between late this year and early next year," Gurman said, adopting the existing high-end Apple silicon chips rather than next-generation M6 versions.
Democrats call on Mills administration to settle pay dispute
The MSEA is seeking a 2.5% wage increase in the first year, with a $1,250 signing bonus. For year two, the union wants a 3% increase.
Why where you live matters for heart health — even in childhood - Baylor College of Medicine Blog Network
Evidence links environmental exposures to early cardiovascular risk, disproportionately impacting marginalized communities like AI/AN youth.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
Apple orders 9x fewer display panels for the foldable iPhone Ultra than for the iPhone 18 Pro
Reportedly, Cupertino orders "only" 10 million panels for its first-ever foldable phone.
Asthma, maternal health, climate disasters: How Detroit’s health director is tackling city’s health disparities
Detroit health director discusses tackling childhood asthma, maternal health, climate disasters through Health in All Policies approach.
Nonprofit aims to help displaced workers as businesses adopt artificial intelligence
UT Health San Antonio researcher receives $400,000 Komen grant to study therapeutic yoga for breast cancer survivors
Amelie G. Ramirez, DrPH, MPH, to work with Hispanics in South Texas Contact: Steven Lee, (210) 450-3823, lees22@uthscsa.edu Content provided by Cliff Despres SAN ANTONIO, June 25, 2026 – Amelie G. Ramirez, DrPH, MPH, a cancer researcher at UT Health San Antonio, the academic health center of The University of Texas at San Antonio, is […]
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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