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Kentucky enters final planning stages of on-campus entertainment district
The University of Kentucky’s plans to move forward with its on-campus Sports Adjacent Entertainment District are not only full-go—they’re approaching the final planning stages before construction begins. UK President Eli Capilouto, AD and Champions Blue CEO J Batt and JMI President Paul Archey all updated the progress of the entertainment district at the Champions Blue Board of Governors meeting in Louisville. That came with a confirmation that the school is now in phase three of planning, with only a final request for proposal and final executive summary separating the school from breaking ground. This ongoing process has included four steering […]
Why health officials limit location details in measles cases
According to the Minnesota Government Data Practices Act, private health information collected during outbreak tracking cannot be made public.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore seeks federal aid for businesses impacted by Empire Towers emergency
Ex-GOP Governor backing a Democrat in key race speaks to OutFront: ‘I don’t recognize this Republican Party’
Alaska governor’s race shifts to toss-up: Cook Political Report
Nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted Alaska’s gubernatorial race to a toss-up on Thursday after previously leaning Republican. Jessica Taylor, the handicapper’…
As politicians squabble over utility rates, how much power does a governor have?
New York officials are promising relief and pointing fingers over who is responsible for high energy bills.
Josh Shapiro wades into AI debate with call for ‘strict guardrails’
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro on Thursday called for greater federal regulation of artificial intelligence while criticizing President Donald Trump for minimizing concerns, saying “We cannot ignore the warning signs nor downplay the very real risks.”
Gov. Moore requests federal assistance for Empire Towers businesses
Governor Moore Requests Administrative Declaration from U.S. Small Business Administration for Anne Arundel County
Governor Moore Requests Administrative Declaration from U.S. Small Business Administration for Anne Arundel County
Governor Moore seeks SBA loans for Glen Burnie businesses hit by Empire Towers shutdown
The governor said an SBA Economic Injury Disaster Loan declaration would provide critical financial recovery support for business affected by offering loans to cover operating expenses.
Governor Moore Requests Administrative Declaration from U.S. Small Business Administration for Anne Arundel County
Governor Moore Requests Administrative Declaration from U.S. Small Business Administration for Anne Arundel County
HAMAQ
HAMAQ will improve how scientists observe and forecast air quality in major metropolitan regions.
LACCE
The Landslide Change Characterization Experiment (LACCE) will investigate landslides as they occur in real time across California and Alaska.
Newsom signs child social media protections as hundreds of bills await action
With hundreds of bills still awaiting action, the governor has until the end of September to decide which become law
Snow4Flow
Investigating snow accumulation and ice flow of glaciers across the Arctic to better project what they will look like by the end of this century.
EVS-4
From ice in Greenland to rivers in Alaska’s North Slope to fires and farmland in the U.S. Southwest, Earth Ventures Suborbital-4 (EVS-4) constitutes a series of airborne campaigns.
Business groups call for $2 billion in federal Colorado River spending
A coalition of chambers of commerce, including nearly a dozen from Arizona, have sent a letter to congress asking the federal government to send new money for water-saving work.
Toxic Fracking Waste Becoming a Political Issue in Ohio
The Democratic candidate for governor backed restrictions on disposal of fracking wastewater around a hard-hit town, and called for a “thorough investigation” of the dangers.
NSF invests in translating low-dimensional semiconductor technologies to establish U.S. leadership in microelectronics
The U.S. National Science Foundation today announced an initiative to translate low-dimensional semiconductor technologies from laboratory demonstrations into platforms for U.S. manufacturers to…
GSA Issues Notice of “Glitch” and Recommends Contractors Validate Small Business Status Representations on SAM.gov
The General Services Administration (GSA) has begun sending out email notifications of a “known glitch” affecting certain System for Award Management (SAM) registrations as far back as spring…
Roundup: Space Force academy / Louisiana Innovation / Data center power
Louisiana enters race: Louisiana is seeking to become the home of a new national academy for the U.S. Space Force after President Donald Trump signed an executive order calling for its creation and NASA opened the application process to states. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry’s administration and regional economic development […]
2026 Trumbull First Selectman’s Address to the Business Community on October 1, 2026
October 1, 2026 7:30 AM - 10:30 AM2026 Trumbull First Selectman’s Address to the Business CommunityJoin the Trumbull Chamber of Commerce, an affiliate of the Bridgeport Regional Business Council
Democrat in battleground district runs ad standing against ‘extremism’ as party reckons with DSA wing
Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY), a Long Island centrist, is running advertisements standing against extremism “on both sides” as the Democratic Party reckons with socialist candidates running in the party in 2026. Suozzi touted the ad on X on Thursday morning, sharing it while socialist Twitch streamer Hasan Piker, one of the faces of the leftist […]
Governor Morrisey announces $855,400 award to strengthen statewide health data infrastructure
Governor Morrisey announces $855,400 award to strengthen statewide health data infrastructure
HHS Seeks Public Input on Electromagnetic Fields and Wireless Radiation
HHS issued a Request for Information (RFI) calling on Americans, scientists, physicians, industry, and public health experts to submit evidence and information on the potential health effects of electromagnetic fields.
Braun names 3rd president of Indiana Economic Development Corp. in less than 2 years
Indiana’s state agency for business recruitment will soon have its third leader since Gov. Mike Braun took office early last year.
Gov. Polis expected to name temporary replacement for Colorado House District 32 vacancy
After the state Democratic Party said they would not hold a vacancy committee to replace Rep. Manny Rutinel so close to the November election, Gov. Jared Polis said he intends to select a placeholder.
Why Santa Monica's Local Politics Still Matter
Santa Monica Daily Press columnist examines why local government oversight matters when facing federal threats to the California Coastal Commission and city governance.
CASCADES: A Journey Along Greenland’s Coast Where Ocean Meets Ice
CASCADES is an international, multidisciplinary expedition bringing together glaciologists, marine-mammal observers, microbiologists, geologists, and biogeochemists.
How attacking data centers became smart politics for the left and right in New York
U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler and Gov. Kathy Hochul don’t agree on much, but they’ve both concluded that supporting AI data centers is bad politics.
Tennessee's new Music Advisory Council will boost advocacy and tourism
Governor Bill Lee is among the state officials behind an initiative to support music industry professionals.
A New Close-Up View of Electrons Inside Semiconductors
Research team uses innovative new methodology to see and explain how electrons change from a solid to liquid state in the presence of defects.
UN-backed experts cite possible U.S. war crimes in Iran strikes
They also accuse Iran’s theocratic government of carrying out crimes against humanity against its own people
Helio and You: A Fresh Perspective on the Sun
The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) mission was launched to help us see the Sun from a new viewpoint. This article explains how this mission and others like it revolutionize our understanding of the Earth-Sun system.
The Business Case for Responsible AI: Enabling Growth by Going Beyond Compliance
Together with CMS, the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI), the Thomson Reuters Foundation and WBCSD members, we explored why Responsible AI governance is far more than a compliance requirement. It is a business imperative: enabling companies to deliver safe and secure AI-powered services, protect and strengthen workers’ skills and knowledge, maintain oversight of their operations
Effectiveness of NC certificate-of-need law meant as healthcare guardrail in doubt
NC certificate-of-need law governs building healthcare facilities. Research and recent outcomes suggest it may do more harm than good.
Biggs releases MAHA-aligned health policy platform for Arizona governor campaign
Rep. Andy Biggs released a list of health policy commitments in his campaign for Arizona governor. Public health experts say proposals to loosen vaccine requirements could have dangerous consequences.
Alation CEO Warns That Smarter AI Agents Can Still Get Your Business Wrong
Alation CEO Satyen Sangani bets AIOS can make enterprise AI agents more reliable through independent data governance as Snowflake and Databricks expand competing tools.
Can researchers trust that AI models won’t leak their ideas?
Research funders are asking how they can stop confidential scientific ideas in grant proposals from leaking out through large language models (LLMs), for example if reviewers use AI to help them judge applications. Last week, a row erupted in mathematics after OpenAI announced it had solved a notoriously difficult problem, only for another mathematician to demand answers over whether the company had used ideas he had fed into its models. The spat, and the broader issue of idea leakage through AI models, was discussed by funders at an R&D policy conference held in Paris on September 14. At worst, it threatens to undermine the correct attribution of breakthroughs, one of the foundations of modern science. The mathematics dispute around OpenAI is “certainly something we're looking at” Jason Gallo, head of the newly established Office of Metascience at the US National Science Foundation (NSF), told the Blue Sky Forum, hosted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The controversy started on September 8, when OpenAI announced it had cracked a mathematical problem that had gone unsolved for 90 years. Using a swarm of AI agents, millions of dollars’ worth of computing power and a new internal model, the company said it had finally proved that a long-used formula for modelling fluid dynamics breaks down under certain conditions. However, Tristan Buckmaster, a New York University mathematician who had been independently working with collaborators on the same problem using OpenAI’s Codex tool, hit back with a statement questioning whether the company had snooped on his Codex sessions to gain an advantage. OpenAI has always denied it looked up the “specific user data” of Buckmaster and colleagues. However, the company initially admitted that “while unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models,” although its proofs “differ significantly” from Buckmaster’s. The firm later said that, following an investigation, it concluded that Buckmaster’s Codex prompts “could not have influenced the [OpenAI] system in any way, including through training.”Funder concernYet OpenAI’s initial admission that its model might have ingested Buckmaster’s ideas, then spat them out to its own mathematicians, has scientistsworriedthat their work could leak out if shared with AI. Some AI tools give users an opt-out option to stop their sessions from training the model. If such guarantees can be trusted, this gives scientists some confidence they can use an LLM to develop an idea without the risk of it leaking out.But there’s a bigger potential vulnerability. To win money to investigate ideas, scientists have to share them with funding bodies. These grant proposals are normally kept strictly confidential, to prevent other scientists from scooping them, or to protect commercially valuable intellectual property. To preserve this confidentiality, when the NSF uses AI models, “we have to be sure that it's not making server calls out to an external party, leaking that data,” said Gallo to delegates in Paris. Leaks through reviewersHowever, funders normally use external academic reviewers to assess proposals. And there are growing worries that these reviewers are feeding grant ideas into AI models to help them make a judgement. Research funders have noticed that peer review reports and funding recommendations have “suddenly become much longer, more detailed and complex,” said Diogo Machado, head of the data science unit at Technopolis, a science and technology-focused consultancy. “The sense is that reviewers are increasingly using generative AI in their review work, even where guidelines sometimes forbid it,” he told Science|Business. “This is very difficult for funders to control or prove.” Happening at scaleThis sharing of confidential proposals with AI models is “happening at scale already,” said James Wilson, executive director of the Research on Research Institute, based at University College London, during the debate in Paris. In response, Gallo said the NSF had “strict guidance” around the uploading of proposals to AI models. But he added the NSF was mulling new types of assessment to make sure applicants were truly the originators of their ideas, such as following a short-form proposal with an oral presentation, which would allow the foundation to “really interrogate the investigator on their intellectual contribution.” Related articlesHow can Europe cope with a flood of AI-assisted research grant proposals?The risks and benefits of AI in screening research grant proposals Viewpoint: AI could make scientific overload worse“For us as funders, a lot of the ways to ensure that the application remains the applicant's own intellectual contribution, those ways are quite regressive,” Peter Clifford, head of strategy at Research Ireland, told delegates. “They're maybe ten or 15 or 20 years old, and they don't scale particularly well.” Disputes over the origin of ideas are as old as modern science. Isaac Newton and Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz spent more than a decade arguing over who invented calculus, for example. And long before LLMs emerged, academics would agonise over how much of their early work to reveal at conferences, in case their colleagues scooped them, Jack Leahy, a senior metascience advisor to the UK government, told delegates. But AI was “accelerating” the “problems of the system,” he said.
Canada looks to deepen research and education links with the EU
Canada is looking for deeper research and education links with the EU, according to its prime minister, Mark Carney. His comments followed hard on the heels of an offer from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to give his nation associate membership of the EU, a status that currently has no legal status or definition. Both sides have yet to detail how this newfound political enthusiasm will translate into concrete action.Addressing the European Parliament on September 17, Carney cited both the Horizon Europe research and innovation programme and the Erasmus+ student mobility scheme as areas for future collaboration.Association with the next iteration of Horizon Europe “would allow us to pool resources, cooperate on frontier technology, leverage our world-class research institutes and universities,” he told MEPs. Canada joined the present programme in 2024, but only takes part in Pillar 2, which supports collaborative research projects. Carney also said that young people should be allowed to work, study and live where they want, on either side of the Atlantic. “Canadian membership of Erasmus+ would give your students and ours more opportunity to learn at some of the world’s top universities, to broaden their horizon and to build those lasting ties that will sustain our alliance,” he said.Limited exchanges with Canada are already possible, for example in the Erasmus Mundus strand of the scheme, which supports joint master’s programmes. This would be considerably increased if the country became a full associate member, a club currently limited to nations neighbouring the EU.Most favoured nation?As for the offer of associate membership of the EU, the aim would be to build “an alliance for the future to create a common prosperity and economic security base,” von der Leyen said during her state of the European Union address, also in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, on September 16.“We will work on intelligent manufacturing,” she went on. “We will create a tech alliance. We will integrate defence industrial bases. We will make the Arctic a flagship joint project. We will work on energy-critical minerals and batteries, on [artificial intelligence], quantum, cyber and economic security.”Mona Nemer, Canada’s chief science advisor, told Science|Business that the political speeches by Carney and Von der Leyen will open the door to even more scientific cooperation between Canada and the EU. She even attributed the broader political partnership to the scientific diplomacy of Horizon Europe association. “The science and research collaborations have predated this political rapprochement,” she said.While she is not part of the government decision-making process, Nemer thinks Carney’s speech in the European Parliament is more than “political posturing” and the Canadian government is likely to come up with more practical ideas for how to boost collaboration in the near future. “The prime minister mentioned Horizon [Europe] and Erasmus+, maybe there is something more concrete around this,” she said.She went on to suggest that Canada and Europe could also work more closely together on setting international standards for emerging technologies, AI safety, data sovereignty and joint research infrastructures, such as particle accelerators and marine research fleets.Nemer confirmed that science cooperation will be on the agenda at an upcoming EU-Canada summit in October. She met recently with EU ambassadors to Canada to "see where the possibilities are, to signal that there is interest."Room for expansionLike other countries outside Europe that are associated to Horizon Europe, such as South Korea, Australia or Japan, Canada is not allowed to host European Research Council (ERC) grantees. However, Canadian universities hint they would like re-open that discussion. “Canada’s participation in Horizon Europe, the world's largest research funding programme, has been a big success,” said Robert Asselin, the chief executive of U15 Canada, an umbrella body for some of the country’s biggest research universities, in a statement. “Ensuring swift re-association to the next research programme, will be vital to maintain this momentum. We would welcome efforts to explore further opportunities to collaborate with European partners, such as through the European Research Council,” he said. Related articlesHow a new multilateral defence bank could boost innovationEurope’s independence hinges on innovation, von der Leyen saysBut so far, there are no details from the Commission on how von der Leyen’s proposal would boost Canadian access to the ERC or other sensitive research calls in Horizon Europe. And it is unclear how other non-European associated countries, such as New Zealand or Australia, would react if Canada was given better access than them. The same questions may arise closer to home. “How would a new category of associate member of the EU differ from Norway’s participation in EU programmes through the European Economic Area?” asked Jan Palmowski, secretary general of the Guild of European Research-Intensive Universities. “And how does this proposal for Canada change discussion for the UK, Norway and Switzerland for the next Multiannual Financial Framework?”Another area for discussion is how far Canadian organisations can participate in sensitive projects. “I would expect some of the most crucial issues at hand to be whether Canada can participate more closely and predictably in calls that are deemed sensitive on research security or EU preference grounds, on critical technologies, for instance,” Palmowski said. Canada’s participation in other parts of Horizon Europe, as well as the European Competitiveness Fund, might also be discussed, he added.Whatever the details, closer cooperation between the EU and Canada represents a “substantial” opportunity, according to Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university group. “Scientific excellence depends on talented people being able to work together, exchange knowledge and access complementary expertise and infrastructure,” he said. “A closer EU-Canada partnership would strengthen these conditions and provide greater certainty for long-term collaboration.”
DeWine Satisfied That 'Science of Reading' is Working - News-Talk 1480 WHBC
COLUMBUS, Ohio (News Talk 1480 WHBC) – Governor Mike DeWine has made the education and health of...
Rep. Andy Ogles: There's a race to quantum computing
House Homeland Security Cyber Subcommittee Chairman Andy Ogles warns that heavy-handed government regulations on artificial intelligence could stifle U.S. innovation and allow China to win the quantum computing race.
Billionaire Glen Taylor’s right-hand man is a political player supporting Lisa Demuth for governor
House Speaker Lisa Demuth won the Republican primary for governor despite losing the Minnesota Republican Party’s convention endorsement — a first since 1994. Now she’s putting up a credible challenge against the state’s most accomplished vote-getter, Democratic nominee Sen. Amy Klobuchar. She’s had help from an outfit called Restore Sanity, which has provided the most […]
Benson, James offer differing plans on tariffs, data centers, health care at Detroit Economic Club
The two major party candidates for Michigan governor answered questions before the Detroit Economic Club Wednesday. As Russ McNamara reports, Republican John James and Democrat Jocelyn Benson had differing visions of governance.
Europe's low gas stocks pile on the economic and political pressure
Europe's delay in restocking natural gas storage reserves, combined with near-record prices for diesel and other refined oil products, has added to the pressures on governments as they try to contain public discontent and the rise of the far-right.
Capitol News Illinois | Illinois asks FEMA for aid after August storms
Illinois is asking the federal government for help recovering from August storms that left a trail of destruction through Chicago’s south suburbs and several central Illinois counties.
How Ohio’s business climate became a flashpoint in the governor’s race
Experts say Ohio's business climate—and Vivek Ramaswamy's tax proposals—are far more complicated than thought.
HSCC backs healthcare cybersecurity bills, calls for broader funding and stronger HHS-CISA coordination
HSCC backs healthcare cybersecurity bills, calls for broader funding and stronger HHS-CISA coordination across healthcare sector.
Democrats Hope Voting Rights Decision Will Drive Black Turnout in South
Black Democratic candidates for governor, the Senate and the House are hoping that attacks on Black representation will bring out Black voters in November.
Whatley campaign event featured sex offender + Ruling allows weaker NC governor
A panel of the Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 against Stein.
Personnel note: Alex Barrera joins Ballard Partners’ Miami, Tallahassee offices
' … few people understand as well as he does how priorities move through the Legislature and how state and local government works.'
Denver board faces ongoing governance and civility issues
It’s mostly impossible to herd cats. So imagine how hard it is to herd a pride of snarling lions. That’s the task of Xóchitl Gaytán, president of the Denver Public Schools Board of Education. She was re-elected in 2025 along with three new board members: Monica Hunter, Dr. D.J. Torres and Anne Klein Molk. Unexpectedly, […]
Unaffiliated voters’ political power depends on where they live
An election doesn’t have to change party control to change how a party can govern.
Summer Goes Out With a Heat Dome
Temperature records toppled across the central and southern U.S. as the autumnal equinox approached.
Trump bashes Democrats on crime while campaigning for Michael Whatley in North Carolina
Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman, is facing former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in a critical race that will help decide which party controls the Senate.
Is Japan’s Okinawa finally moving on from anti-base politics?
Frustrated by economic hardship, Okinawans have rallied behind a new governor, leaving long-standing anti-base resistance in disarray.
Mike Minogue, Republican candidate for Massachusetts governor, talks Trump, party politics
As shortfall looms, Pillen installs allies on board meant to keep politics out of budget forecast
Decades ago, lawmakers created a board that predicts Nebraska's tax receipts in an effort to keep politics out. Last week, Gov. Jim Pillen appointed two political allies to serve on it
As shortfall looms, Pillen installs allies on board meant to keep politics out of budget forecast
In an unprecedented move, Gov. Jim Pillen has reshaped the state board that predicts Nebraska’s tax revenues for budget writers, replacing three members with appointees that include two former Republi...
Governor Shapiro pushes back on Secretary Kennedy’s claims of politicizing measles deaths
Tua Tagovailoa unable to practice
Atlanta Falcons QB Tua Tagovailoa misses Wednesday's practice
Alabama awards $262,000 grant to upgrade forensic science equipment
Gov. Kay Ivey's office has awarded $262,000 to the Alabama Department of Forensic Sciences to enhance drug case investigations and morgue services.
HHS recognizes 2026 Behavioral Health and Children and Family Services Conference award recipients | Health and Human Services North Dakota
North Dakota Health and Human Services (HHS) recognized five individuals and teams for their outstanding contributions to children, families and behavioral health services during the 2026 Behavioral Health & Children and Family Services Conference. The annual awards recognize providers and professionals who demonstrate exceptional service, innovation, leadership and a commitment to improving the lives of North Dakotans.
Hubbard Homestead Park Sports Court Opens
Seattle Parks and Recreation (SPR) is happy to announce the new sports court at Hubbard Homestead Park is complete! We are celebrating with the community and our partners, One Roof Foundation, the philanthropic arm of the Seattle Kraken and Climate Pledge Arena, on Thursday, September 17 from 3 to 5 pm. Please join us at […]
Florida Democratic governor hopeful David Jolly says politics are at a "1974 post-Watergate moment"
Benson, James pitch tariff remedies, business boosts & data center limits at Detroit Economic Club
DETROIT — The respective Republican and Democratic nominees for Michigan governor on Wednesday each proposed new solutions to the economic tariffs levied by the administration of President Donald Trump, especially those being used against Canada. Addressing the Detroit Economic Club on Wednesday afternoon in separate speaking events were Republican U.S. Rep. John James and Democrat […]
VIDEO: Warnock Calls Out AI Developers, Social Media Companies, After Bizarre Health Hoax » Reverend Raphael Warnock
Senator Reverend Warnock warned about the risk to democracy after AI-generated social media posts with false health news about the Senator went viral Senator Reverend Warnock: “What if hours before an election, someone created a page with AI-generated images, fake stories about the candidates? How will voters know what’s true and what’s not true?” Washington, D.C. – Yesterday, U.S. […]
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis issues executive order to boost protections for pollinators
Gov. Jared Polis signed an executive order on Wednesday that he says will help protect Colorado's pollinators.
Governor Moore Announces $1.36 Million in Awards to Expand Prevention, Reduction of Gun Violence
Governor Moore Announces $1.36 Million in Awards to Expand Prevention, Reduction of Gun Violence
Trio of powerful DeSantis appointments will face voters for the first time
Florida voters will decide in November whether to elected three powerful politicians appointed to their positions by Gov. Ron DeSantis.
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
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