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Five 2026 ballot measures address sex-based school sports eligibility, certain medical procedures for transgender minors
Welcome to the Monday, July 27, 2026, Brew. By: Lara Bonatesta Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day: Five 2026 ballot measures address sex-based school sports eligibility, certain medical procedures for transgender minors In 2026, voters will decide at least five ballot measures on sex-based requirements for school sports and bans […]
Tottenham boss hints over Moore future
Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi has hinted Mikey Moore may be allowed to leave the club again this summer after the 18-year-old winger's loan to Rangers last season. Herald - subscription required) Serbia midfielder Vanja Dragojevic rejected Benfica, Eintracht Frankfurt, Anderlecht, Club Brugge, PAOK and Copenhagen to join Rangers from Partizan. Dakeer Mohamed Thanveer) Rangers manager Derek McInnes has made his decision over who will be the new club captain, despite having five different players wear the armband during pre-season.
Money in Ann Arbor politics: Where does it come from, and where does it go?
Pre-election campaign finance statements for candidates of the Aug. 4 Ann Arbor mayoral and City Council primaries were due Friday. The statements report all campaign contributions and expenditures — from five-figure donations, to a $3.99 purchase of water made by mayoral candidate Yousef Rabhi’s campaign. Collectively, candidates for mayor and City Council have raised more […]
Ukraine's new top general has an X doppelganger fooling thousands
The account on X, @Drapatyi_M, has posted 22 times in the last five days, mimicking the run-of-the-mill updates one would expect from an official.
Lampard Inquiry: Five things we've learned so far
After months of evidence, the inquiry into mental health services is uncovering serious failures.
Phoenix Suns’ Starting Lineup Continues To Be Underrated
Despite landing Miles Bridges and boasting Devin Booker’s elite playmaking, critics rank Phoenix’s revamped starting five in the league's bottom third, fueling intense debate over their true potential.
French politicians can’t get enough of ‘De Gaulle’
The five-hour-long movie captures the zeitgeist of French politics ahead of next year’s presidential election.
Ebola infections in DR Congo surge to 3,200, with 1,405 deaths
Cases have surged by 1,000 in just 10 days as outbreak continues to spread across five provinces.
A Taylor-made comeback helps Mets defeat Dodgers 8-3
Emmet Sheehan goes five solid innings, but the bullpen gives up seven unanswered runs in 8-3 loss to Mets.
Three wins out of four for basketball sides
Scotland men's hopes of reaching the quarter-finals of the 3x3 Basketball at the Commonwealth Games suffered a blow with a 21-13 defeat by New Zealand. The Scots had defeated Nigeria 21-16 earlier on Sunday but now sit third in the Pool A table behind Australia and New Zealand. While Scotland have won three of their five games, the two Antipodean sides have won four, with Australia also having a game in hand.
Business briefs: Braun honors five Hoosiers at Black Expo
Gov. Mike Braun recently recognized five Hoosiers at the Governor’s Reception at the Indiana Black Expo Summer Celebration.
5 Things To Stop Doing If You Have A Samsung Galaxy Watch
If you own a Samsung Galaxy Watch, you have access to lots of great and helpful features, but here are five things that you should really stop doing.
ELECTION 2026 | Texas politics: Here are 5 top-of-ballot candidates' stances on law enforcement
FORT WORTH, Texas -- Five candidates vying for three top-of-ballot offices made their appeal to law enforcement officers from over 200 counties on Tuesday at the annual Sheriffs Association of Texas conference in Fort Worth.
LAWRENCE OGBONNAYA
YOUNG GUNS PROP SALE SHARKS Sale Sharks prop Lawrence Ogbonnaya has one overriding ambition for England U18s’ forthcoming tour of South Africa – to finally experience victory in a national shirt. The powerful tight-head has played five times across the England Under-18 and Under-19 pathway without yet finishing on the winning side, making that elusive […] The post LAWRENCE OGBONNAYA appeared first on The Rugby Paper.
How The MacBook Pro Has Changed In The Last Five Years
In the past five years, the MacBook Pro got a redesigned base model, more powerful processors, improved displays, and more.
Temporal Changes in Pediatric Influenza Test Positivity Across COVID-19 Public Health Policy Phases: A Five-Year Retrospective Cohort Study
Background The COVID-19 pandemic coincided with substantial changes in respiratory virus circulation, healthcare utilization, and diagnostic testing. Although population-level influenza activ...
Dodgers offense hard to come by in July
The Dodgers have won five of seven games on a road trip that concludes this weekend at Citi Field, with two more games against the New York Mets. But the offense hasn’t been humming along, winning twice while only scoring two runs on the trip. On Friday the Dodgers were up 2-1 again before Kyle […]
Top five 49ers competitions to watch with 2026 NFL training camp finally here
Matt Maiocco lists five positional battles 49ers fans can expect as San Francisco begins 2026 NFL training camp on Saturday.
Yankees predicted to make five trades by MLB deadline to upgrade four positions
This five-trade prediction for the Yankees is a very interesting one.
Five Days for Better Brain Health
Join AARP Maryland for Brain Health Week, October 12–16, 2026, and discover practical ways to support your brain health through free virtual and in-person events.
Wales make history with 3x3 wheelchair basketball win
Team Wales experienced its first 3x3 wheelchair basketball action in the Commonwealth Games today as the women's team of Anastasia Blease, Chloe Morgan, Libi Phillips, Molly Lander beat India 16-1 in Glasgow. Captain Blease led the way with seven points, while Landa scored five and Phillips added four. Wales will play two further group games against Nigeria and Scotland.
At least 35 killed in bus collision on Syria's Deir al-Zor-Damascus road, health ministry says
Thirty-five people were killed and 30 injured in a collision between two passenger buses on the Deir al-Zor-Damascus road, a health ministry official told state news agency SANA on Saturday.
Yankees prospects: Cebert’s five scoreless caps off strong month
Recapping the Yankees’ minor league affiliates’ results from July 24th.
Man City's Khusanov signs new five-year contract
Manchester City defender Abdukodir Khusanov signed a five-year contract extension with the Premier League club on Saturday.Khusanov helped City win the FA Cup and League Cup last season, as well as finishing second in the Premier League.
Man City explain Abdukodir Khusanov’s bumper new five-year contract
The Uzbekistan defender is slated for a key role in the new City regime under Enzo Maresca
Final Fantasy XIV: Evercold expansion extended teaser trailer and latest details, Switch 2 version launches August 4
Square Enix released a five-minute extended teaser trailer and new details for Final Fantasy XIV: Evercold, the patch 8.0 expansion for Final Fantasy XIV due out in January 2027, as well as announc…
Khusanov pens new City contract
Abdukodir Khusanov has signed a new five-year contract with Manchester City, keeping him at the Club until 2031.The Uzbek international defender arrived in January 2025 and has enjoyed a stellar first...
Robinson delays captaincy decision until cup group games complete
Aberdeen head coach Stephen Robinson intends to name his captain for the season ahead of their Premiership opener with Hearts, saying he has "four or five" options. Robinson has rotated the responsibility so far, with Kevin Nisbet, Brad Lyons and Dan Happe all being handed the skipper's armband during their three Premier Sports Cup victories. "We will change it again," said Robinson.
Five Major Moments From President Trump’s Speech at the Correspondents’ Dinner
'MacBook Ultra' Coming Soon With These 12 New Features
Apple's first high-end MacBook redesign in five years is expected to arrive in the near future, bringing a run of firsts to the Mac. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman expects the laptop to arrive between late 2026 and early 2027, with the later window now looking more likely owing to the global memory chip shortage. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects mass production to begin by late 2026.
Museum of Life and Science names red wolf pups in honor of Carolina Hurricanes
The Museum of Life and Science has named five new red wolf pups in honor of the Carolina Hurricanes’ 2026 Stanley Cup Championship.
Louisiana ranks 13th, topping Texas, for five-year business survival
Louisiana ranks 13th among the 50 states for five-year business survival, outperforming each of its neighboring states.
Museum of Life and Science names red wolf pups in honor of Carolina Hurricanes
The Museum of Life and Science has named five new red wolf pups in honor of the Carolina Hurricanes’ 2026 Stanley Cup Championship.
Neurodivergent kids face special mental health risks. New initiative seeks ways to protect them
Jake Collective and the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention are launching a $5 million, five-year initiative
Stony Brook University Researchers Chosen for Landmark DOE Genesis Mission AI-for-Science Awards
More than $2.4M will support collaborations with Brookhaven National Lab and other institutions to address complex science and technology challenges Researchers at the State University of New York at Stony Brook (Stony Brook University) secured five inaugural awards through the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Genesis Mission, a national AI-for-science initiative designed to accelerate scientific
I Just Realized Where I Know 'Five Star Weekend' Actor Timothy Olyphant from...and I'm Freaking Out
Actor Timothy Olyphant is having a moment, with viewers especially excited to see him opposite Jennifer Garner in 'The Five Star Weekend.' But I just realized where else I know him from, and this blew my mind.
Fast-tracked, but falling short? Mamdani’s efficiency measures head to NYC voters
Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s government-efficiency panel unanimously approved five proposed City Charter changes for the November ballot Thursday evening, setting
Ranking top five rookie tight ends by projected 2026 NFL production
These five rookie tight ends are names to know when it comes to 2026 fantasy football production.
Business Roundtable: Foundational Workers, Child Care, and the U.S. Economy
The First Five Years Fund, Moms First's National Business Coalition for Child Care, and Etsy hosted a bipartisan roundtable discussion with more than a dozen business leaders from across the country.
Falcons Reacts Survey: What is Tua Tagovailoa’s outlook?
How will the former top-five pick maximize his fresh start in Atlanta?
5 Reasons to Buy the iPhone 17 Now Instead of Waiting for iPhone 18
Apple's iPhone 18 Pro models and its first foldable are less than two months from being unveiled. That may sound like a reason to sit tight if you're looking to upgrade from an iPhone 16 or older series, but between looming price hikes and Apple's new split-launch calendar, there's a decent case for grabbing an iPhone 17 series model right now. Here are five reasons in favor of putting your order in today. 1.
Barcelona Signs Forward Karim Adeyemi From Borussia Dortmund Until 2031
Spanish champion Barcelona has signed forward Karim Adeyemi from Borussia Dortmund on a five-year contract.
Mamdani battles politics tied to Legionnaires', failed Israeli PM arrest threat
Since discovering the outbreak in early July, five New Yorkers have died from Legionnaires' disease.
Michigan law requires teachers to complete ‘Science of Reading’ training
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer signed a law July 21 requiring Michigan teachers to complete "Science of Reading" training within the next five years, as the state ranks 44th in the country in fourth grade reading levels.
David Gabriel Georges commits to Tennessee football
Five-star running back David Gabriel Georges commits to Tennessee over Ohio State and Ole Miss.
VA reduces improper payments for private health care by 98% since 2020
The VA has slashed improper payments to private companies that provide medical care to veterans by 98% in the past five years.
Patriots O-line deep dive: Center change brings uncertainty
Our third installment in a five-part look at the Patriots’ 2026 offensive line.
Ranking all 191 first-round NFL Draft picks since 2020: Best, worst selections of the decade
Five QBs rank among the top seven first-round selections since 2020, while Caleb Williams lands in the bottom third of our list
Department of Energy's New AI-for-Science ‘Genesis Mission’ Awards Funding to 5 UT Research Projects
Five UT teams have been awarded funding from the DOE’s Genesis Mission, an initiative working to harness artificial intelligence for advances in energy dominance, discovery science and national security.
Stony Brook University Researchers Chosen for Landmark DOE Genesis Mission AI-for-Science Awards
More than $2.4M will support collaborations with Brookhaven National Lab and other institutions to address complex science and technology challenges WASHINGTON, D.C., July 22, 2026 – Researchers at the State University of New York at Stony Brook (Stony Brook University) secured five inaugural awards through the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Genesis Mission, a national AI-for-science
SBU Researchers Chosen for DOE Genesis Mission AI Awards
Stony Brook University researchers secured five awards through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Genesis Mission, a national AI-for-science initiative.
House Dems hand GOP a win on trans sports as party unity cracks
Five House Democrats broke with their party to vote with Republicans on a transgender sports amendment to the NDAA targeting military schools.
⚽️ Y! Sports AM: Lasting legacy
The 2026 World Cup is gone, but those five magical weeks across the U.S., Canada and Mexico won’t soon be forgotten.
Max Muncy ties Ron Cey in Dodger home run history
Max Muncy was the hero for the second time over the Dodgers’ last five games, smashing a two-run home run against Zack Wheeler to make the difference in a 2-1 win on Tuesday. Muncy continues to climb the franchise home run list, as his blast on Tuesday was the 228th home run hit as a […]
5 Steps To Turn Your Regular Business Into An AI Business
The next wave of billionaires will be AI billionaires, and they build tools instead of buying them. Here are five steps to turn your business into an AI business.
‘If all else fails, sue’: how ultra-processed food firms are using the courts to obstruct health rules
Exclusive: Global investigation reveals 235 lawsuits have been brought against governments in five countries since 2010
NC Health News wins 10 awards in state press contest
Staff took home three first-place awards, along with two second-place and five third-place awards in the annual competition.
Israeli students win 13 medals at international science Olympiads
Israeli students earned 13 medals, including five golds, at international physics, biology, and chemistry Olympiads held worldwide in July.
Connor Bedard’s ‘only goal’ after signing $75 million Blackhawks contract
Chicago Blackhawks star Connor Bedard has a clear goal in mind now that he has signed on the dotted line for the next five years.
The Five Biggest "What Ifs" of the Josh Allen Era
From pivotal trades to career-defining leaps, examine the sliding-door moments that transformed a struggling franchise into a powerhouse and nearly altered the course of Buffalo football history.
Mamdani's commission unveils five ballot proposals on improving government
The questions range from speeding up the construction of bike and bus lanes to establishing a savings target for the city's rainy day fund.
6 teens arrested after employee attacked inside Rochester business
Six people, including five juveniles, were arrested after a fight inside a business on East Main Street on Tuesday morning, according to the Rochester Police Department.
Rangers Sports Network presented by Progressive Receives Five 2026 Lone Star Sports Emmy® Award Nominations
Arlington, Texas — The Texas Rangers and Rangers Sports Network presented by Progressive (RSN) are proud to announce that RSN has been nominated for five 2026 Lone Star Sports Emmy® Awards, including a Special Achievement Award for Sports Excellence. A full list of nominations can be found below: - Special
AdventHealth, Intermountain Health plan to form Denver-area joint venture
Nonprofit health systems AdventHealth and Intermountain Health announced plans Tuesday to bring Denver-area hospitals and ambulatory sites under a new, to-be-formed joint venture. | The entity would comprise five AdventHealth hospitals, three Intermountain hospitals and their affiliated sites. It would be managed by AdventHealth, which is also expected to be the joint venture's majority owner.
Regular Coffee Consumption Linked to Health Benefits, AHA Says
A new report from the American Heart Association says that it's safe for most adults to drink up to five cups of coffee per day. New research also suggests regular coffee consumption may be linked to lower risk of stroke, diabetes, and heart failure for some individuals. Health benefits apply to paper filtered or instant coffee.
Recall petitions officially declared insufficient by city
The effort to recall five of Ellsworth's seven city councilors has officially concluded after the petitions fell a few hundred signatures short, the city announced Monday afternoon, July 20.
Coffee may protect your heart but energy drinks could harm it
For most adults, a daily caffeine habit may be safer for the heart than many people assume. A new American Heart Association review found that up to 400 milligrams of caffeine a day, roughly three to five cups of regular black coffee, is generally safe and may even be linked to lower risks of heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and Type 2 diabetes. But the source matters: highly concentrated energy drinks and shots can sharply raise blood pressure and trigger irregular heart rhythms.
Multigenerational living taught my kids about the realities of aging
My family of five moved in with my parents earlier this year. Multigenerational living has my kids about the realities of aging.
Five years after a $82 million IPO, Jungo sells its business for just $300,000
Israeli driver-monitoring startup will become a stock market shell after transferring its operations to controlling shareholder Ophir Herbst, while retaining roughly $9.8 million in cash.
BankFive executive Scott Correia wins top honor
BankFive executive Scott Correia was named a 40 Under Forty award winner for his leadership and community service.
IDP Prospects Flying Under The Radar
Steve Hungarter makes his debut with The Huddle and discusses five of his favorite undervalued IDP prospects.
Brooms Out: Brewers Sweep the Marlins
The Marlins travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers in a three game series. The Marlins enter the series 52-45 on the season and the Brewers enter the series 59-37 on the season. The Marlins sit in third place in the NL East trailing the first place team by five games and the Brewers…
The Match That Made Me Fall in Love with Sunderland
A last-minute winner, a sea of red and white, and one unforgettable afternoon - how did a five-year-old's first match spark a lifelong love affair with Sunderland?
Five reasons Lamar Jackson can reclaim the NFL MVP award
It isn't overreaching to expect Lamar Jackson to reach higher levels during the 2026 NFL season.
Suspect in 2 brutal attacks completed mental health diversion program before arrest, records show
A man accused of carrying out two violent attacks last week had a previous violent charge dismissed after completing a mental health diversion program five months ago, records show.
5 years after sports betting legalization, what does gambling look like in Arizona?
It's been almost five years since sports betting was legalized in Arizona. The money has not slowed down.
Federal health officials have investigated 5 different clusters of cyclosporiasis cases, FDA says
Federal health officials have been investigating five different clusters of cyclosporiasis cases since the start of parasite season in May, the FDA said on Monday.
Federal health officials have investigated 5 different clusters of cyclosporiasis cases, FDA says
Federal health officials have been investigating five different clusters of cyclosporiasis cases since the start of parasite season in May, the FDA said on Monday.
Federal health officials have investigated 5 different clusters of cyclosporiasis cases, FDA says
Federal health officials have been investigating five different clusters of cyclosporiasis cases since the start of parasite season in May, the FDA said on Monday.
NEW NFIB REPORT: Texas Small Businesses Report Insurance Challenges Five Points Worse Than National Average
State-specific report finds insurance affordability and availability concerns are five points worse in Texas than across the country
Five Warriors players to follow after NBA Summer League championship run
Monte Poole identifies five Golden State Warriors players to keep an eye on after the 2026 NBA Summer League tournament.
Check Out the Top Five Cards from Mega Evolution—Pitch Black
Find out why this Pokémon TCG expert thinks Mega Excadrill ex, Hide ’n’ Sneak, and even Slowbro will make an impact on the Standard format.
5 breakout candidates for the Patriots in 2026
Here are five breakout candidates to keep an eye on when the Patriots start training camp later this week.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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