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Scott’s rivals take a break from politics after the longtime congressman’s death upends the election
A crowded field of opponents who called for new leadership in the 13th Congressional District offered their condolences to David Scott's family.
Police respond to report of fight outside popular sports complex in Mason
Multiple officers were called to a report of a fight outside a large and popular sports complex in Mason on Wednesday night.
Gov. Evers responds to calls for action by Ridglan Farms protesters
Animal rights activists called for Gov. Tony Evers to shut down a Dane County beagle breeding and research facility.
AI-driven sports technology from Carnegie Mellon students draws interest from Mark Cuban
More than 68 million Americans play a racquet sport, but improving their skills can be difficult. Costs for lessons are becoming increasingly expensive, and feedback for technique isn’t always individualized. But three Carnegie Mellon University students think they have an answer. They launched a company called ServeSense. Pitching their technology
2026 NFL Draft Odds: Back Big Ten to Have Even Bigger Round 1
Find out why Geoff Schwartz is backing the Big Ten to have more than a handful players hear their names called on Thursday.
Unique door helps kids learn science and engineering
The so-called “STEM Door” at McAuliffe Elementary School in the Cimarron Hills area does more than separate the library from the STEM Lab. Educators described it as a way to help students understand a range of scientific concepts.
How can scientists visualize cellular life with greater precision? - Salk Institute for Biological Studies
Highlights Salk researchers collaborated with scientists at Albert Einstein College of Medicine to develop a new class of probes for imaging living cells The probes, called visible-spectrum antigen-stabilizable fluorescent nanobodies (VIS-Fbs), generate high-contrast images with minimal disruption to normal cellular activity The technology enables more precise investigation of complex biological processes, including cell signaling, development, and disease progression LA JOLLA—Fluorescent proteins have revolutionized science, enabling researchers to tag and visualize individual molecules in living cells, tissues, and animals. Using these tools, researchers have watched viruses infect cells in real time, observed cellular trash collection, and tracked the signaling that spurs tumor growth.
Mystics, Monumental Sports bring a different kind of support to DC girls
The Washington Mystics and Monumental Sports, through a new nonprofit called EquipHer, gave away three free sports bras to every girl at Hart Middle School.
Markey at POLITICO Summit: Ready for ‘battle’ with Trump on health care
The Massachusetts Democrat also called on Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to resign.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
WhatsApp Testing Paid 'Plus' Subscription Tier
WhatsApp has started testing a paid subscription tier called WhatsApp Plus, which adds a set of personalization options on top of the standard messaging experience, according to WABetaInfo.
Cantaloupes Recalled in Four States Due to Salmonella Risk
By HealthDay Staff HealthDay ReporterTUESDAY, April 21, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Health officials in some states are warning shoppers to avoid certain cantaloupes amid concerns they may carry Salmonella. The recall, announced by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), involves fruit produced by
The Death of Public Health
During the recent measles outbreak, the largest in more than 30 years, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. refused to clearly recommend the measles vaccine, saying instead that it was a “personal decision,” and that parents should “do their own research.” Similarly, during her recent confirmation hearing for United States Surgeon General, Casey Means was questioned by Senator William Cassidy (R, La). “You’re the nation’s doctor,” said Cassidy. “Would you encourage [a mother] to have her child vaccinated!” “I’m not an individual’s doctor,” Means said. “And every individual needs to talk to their doctor before putting a medication in their body.” In June 2025, Marty Makary, Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said that COVID vaccines for pregnant women should be a “personal choice”, even though every other country in the world recommended the COVID vaccine during pregnancy due to a higher risk for severe disease. It doesn’t end there. On January 5, 2026, RFK Jr. reduced the number of routinely recommended vaccines from 18 to 10. For vaccines that protected against influenza, COVID, and rotavirus, parents were urged to speak with their doctors—to make an individual choice. (On March 16, 2026, in a ruling by a federal court in Boston, RFK Jr.’s revised schedule was invalidated.) What’s happening? Why are public health officials moving away from making recommendations for the public? The origin of this change might be rooted in the first two years of the COVID pandemic. In 2020, during the first year on the pandemic, we didn’t have anything to stop a virus that was killing hundreds of people a day and could be spread asymptomatically. We didn’t have antivirals until October, monoclonal antibodies until November, and vaccines until December. All we could do was restrict travel, close businesses, shutter schools, and mask, isolate, quarantine, test, and social distance. During the second year of the pandemic, when we had vaccines to prevent COVID, people couldn’t go anywhere without their vaccine cards. They couldn’t go to their favorite bar or restaurant or sporting event or place of worship without proof of vaccination. Some people were fired from their jobs for refusing to get vaccinated. For many, this was seen as massive government overreach and energized what has been called the “medical freedom movement.” Indeed, a headline in the New York Times declared, “How Health Freedom Became a Winning Rally Cry.” As expressed in the comments of RFK Jr., Casey Means, and Marty Makary, the medical freedom movement focuses on the individual not the community—the opposite of public health. In an article titled “Ethics and Social Value Judgments in Public Health,” ethicists from Yale University distinguished public health from medical freedom. “Public health policies,” they wrote, “are population oriented. Because individual health affects the health of others, public health measures regulate individual behavior to achieve population health goals. All raise questions about how individual autonomy and freedom should be balanced against public health interests…which respects individuals’ sovereignty over their bodies and actions as long as their actions do not harm others.” The medical freedom movement fails to recognize that it often limits the freedom of others. For example, a parent who is afraid to send a child to school where many of the students are unvaccinated. Or immune compromised children who depend on those around them to for protection. The question then becomes “Freedom for whom?” Is it your right, in the name of medical freedom, to catch and transmit a potentially fatal infection—and in so doing, take away the freedom of others? In Four Essays on Liberty, Isaiah Berlin sums it up best. “Liberty for the wolves,” he wrote, “is death to the lambs.” Thanks for reading Beyond the Noise! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe
Valve adds Steam Controller unboxing video to SteamDB as launch signs grow
Valve's new Steam Controller launch is imminent Valve may be getting closer to a Steam Controller update. A new SteamDB entry called
Madonna pleads for 'safe return' of vintage outfits she wore with Sabrina Carpenter at Coachella
Madonna has called for the 'safe return' of her material, girl. The superstar said vintage clothes she wore on stage with Sabrina Carpenter at Coachella 'went missing' after the performance.
Kash Patel Sues The Atlantic for $250 Million Over Article Claiming Excessive Drinking
Mr. Patel sued the publication for defamation, asking for $250 million in damages. A spokeswoman for The Atlantic called the suit “meritless.”
NVIDIA says new ReSTIR path tracing update is 2 to 3 times faster, but this is still research
ReSTIR PT Enhanced could lower the cost of real-time path tracing NVIDIA researchers have published a new paper called ReSTIR PT Enhanced: Algorithmic
With no end in sight to their deployment, National Guard troops roam Washington
Eight months after President Donald Trump declared a crime emergency in the nation’s capital and called up the National Guard, more than 2,500 troops remain | News-Talk 1380 WAOK
High-ranking Republicans dance around endorsements. What's the point?
U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett posted what one politico called a \
Pinwheels and the ‘lobster district’: How Virginia Democrats drew up a US House map to all but lock out Republicans
Virginia Democrats hope the new congressional map they’re asking voters to approve Tuesday will flip four Republican House districts, delivering 10 of 11 seats in a state Vice President Kamala Harris won with just 52% of the vote in 2024. To do it, they want to dramatically rework entire sections of the state, slicing up deep blue districts in the Washington, DC, suburbs and around Richmond, and creating a new district running along the Blue Ridge Mountains that connects liberal cities. That’s required something called the “lobster district,” stretching from northern Virginia into two “pincers” grabbing up rural territory.
Great Women of Science Go Missing: The Matilda Effect
It’s now been two years since Great Women of Science debuted, featuring women who have made notable contributions to science, technology, or health and have largely gone unnoticed, often with Nobel prizes they deserved awarded to the men with whom they collaborated. There’s a name for this phenomenon - it’s called “the Matilda Effect.”
LeBron James: Sharing court with son Bronny was 'craziest thing'
LeBron James called sharing the court with his son Bronny during an NBA playoff game the "craziest thing" that has ever happened to him.
‘Sport as a Public Good’ talk spotlights gaps in youth sports education, access
There’s little that people enjoy more than play. Unfortunately, when it comes to our youth, we often fail in nurturing that love, former President of the U.S. Tennis Association and Chief Medical Officer of the NCAA Brian Hainline said. On Wednesday, April 15, Hainline spoke at the University of New Mexico Physics and Astronomy Interdisciplinary Science Building and said sports should be a public good to an audience including local sport leaders and athletes. He highlighted what he called an inadequate systemic support for sports in the U.S. Hainline’s lecture was hosted jointly by the UNM School of Medicine and Alumni Association.
Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC): AI Push Amid Share BuyBack Calls
Teladoc Health Inc (NYSE:TDOC) is among the best medical AI stocks to buy now. On March 31, activist investor Pineal Capital Management urged Teladoc to launch a share repurchase program. Pineal Capital is pushing for at least $200 million in share buybacks. Additionally, the activist investor has called on the Teladoc management to consider separating […]
Metro Creator Doesn't Think 2039 Should Be 'Called a Game'
Dmitry Glukhovsky, the creator of Metro, has said on social media that Metro 2039 should go beyond being called just a game.
Republicans Plan Big Spending to Keep Ohio's Senate Seat. A Bribery Scandal Adds to Their Challenges
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — As he seeks to retain his U.S. Senate seat this fall, Ohio Republican Jon Husted has been unable to escape the shadow of a $60 million bribery scandal that has roiled state politics for more than five years. Husted was recently called to testify as a defense witness in the
Arsenal legend calls for club to change captain
Tony Adams has again called on Arsenal to take the captaincy from Martin Odegaard and give it to Declan Rice.Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty ImagesTony Adams has been speaking again about who Arsena...
K-Pop’s Biggest Labels Are Joining Forces to Build a Coachella Rival Called ‘Fanomenon’
K-pop’s Big 4 are considering a Coachella-style event that could launch as early as 2027.
Michael Phelps Reflects on Impact of His Mental Health Advocacy
Michael Phelps sits down with NBC Nightly News anchor Tom Llamas for a new series called Great Americans to mark 250 years of the United States. Phelps talks about his life after the Olympics and reflects on the impact that openly discussing his mental health struggles has had on others and why he says that's "better than winning an Olympic gold medal."
Super-agers have healthy cognitive function
I just read about people who are called super-agers and how they don't have the memory problems that happen when you get older. Supposedly they have more brain cells. Do you know if that's true? The idea of super-agers is really interesting, and I want to know more.
Cosm Breaks Ground on Immersive Entertainment Venue in Downtown Cleveland
CLEVELAND — Cosm, along with Bedrock and Rock Entertainment Group, have broken ground on a new entertainment venue located at the intersection of East 4th Street, Prospect Avenue and Huron Road in downtown Cleveland. Dubbed Cosm Cleveland, the venue will sit directly across from Rocket Arena (formerly Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse), home of the NBA’s Cleveland Cavaliers and AHL’s Cleveland Monsters. The two professional sports franchises are owned by Dan Gilbert, founder of Rocket Mortgage, Bedrock and Rock Entertainment Group. Spanning approximately 64,000 square feet and rising three stories, Cosm Cleveland will comprise two programmatic elements: The Dome and The Hall. Through Cosm’s proprietary technology called Shared Reality, the venue will merge a stadium-like atmosphere with state-of-the-art visuals in a communal setting. Rossetti Architects designed Cosm Cleveland, and Bedrock is leading the development. The venue, which will anchor Bedrock’s Rock Block mixed-use development, is slated to open in 2027. “This is a major milestone for our downtown Gateway District, and the arrival of Cosm is a testament to our community’s spirit and resilience,” says Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb. “This incredible venue will enhance our city’s reputation as a hub for sports and entertainment, drawing visitors from near and far to experience a…
Scientists discover bacteria can “explode” to spread antibiotic resistance
Scientists have uncovered a surprising twist in how bacteria share genes—including those that spread antibiotic resistance. Tiny virus-like particles called gene transfer agents (GTAs), once ancient viral invaders, have been repurposed by bacteria into delivery systems that shuttle DNA between neighboring cells. The study reveals a key control hub of three genes, dubbed LypABC, that triggers bacterial cells to burst open and release these DNA-packed couriers.
Xanax XR recalled after discovery that tablets may fail to release medication properly
A batch of Xanax XR has been recalled nationwide after the manufacturer found the drug may not release properly in the body. The FDA classified the issue as moderate risk.
Entertainment: First look at Jack Johnsons new film
We have our first look at Jack Johnson's new documentary. It's called "Surfilmusic."
Scientists discover natural hormone that reverses obesity
A hormone called FGF21 can reverse obesity in mice by activating a newly identified brain circuit tied to metabolism. Surprisingly, it works in the hindbrain—the same region targeted by GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy—but through a completely different mechanism. Instead of suppressing appetite, FGF21 ramps up the body’s energy burning. This insight could pave the way for more targeted weight-loss and liver disease treatments.
NBA says Ball's takedown of Adebayo should have been flagrant, merited ejection
The NBA says Charlotte's LaMelo Ball should have been ejected for an uncalled flagrant foul when he reached out and tugged on the ankle of Miami's Bam Adebayo.
Proposed adult entertainment, seafood venue in Johnstown canceled
Plans for a combination seafood restaurant and adult entertainment business in Johnstown have been called off after city officials raised concerns about a propo
Live Nation says ‘game is not over’ after jury finds company liable for ticketing monopoly
A federal jury in New York found Live Nation and Ticketmaster liable for monopolistic practices, in what attorneys general called a landmark victory.
2026 NFL Draft Odds: Back Ty Simpson as 1st-Rounder, Over 4.5 Corners on Day 1
Find out how many QBs and cornerbacks Geoff Schwartz is wagering on to get called off board on Day 1 of the NFL Draft.
LIV Golf's future may hang in balance as execs meet, per report
As its five-year battle with the PGA Tour drags on, the Saudi-backed golf circuit has reportedly called executives in New York for "emergency summit."
iPhone Ultra is coming: Six new features in Apple’s high-end model
Apple’s first foldable iPhone is coming this fall, and rumors say it will be called iPhone Ultra. Here are six new features to expect.
Scientists develop 'light switch' for the love hormone
Researchers have developed a molecular "light switch" for the so-called love hormone oxytocin, offering new insights into how social behavior, partnership bonding, emotions, and mental health are wired ...
Billy Crystal eyes return to Broadway in one-man show about the house he lost to LA wildfires
Billy Crystal returns to Broadway this fall with an intimate one-man show called "860." | Talk 1370
Billy Crystal will return to Broadway in one-man show about the house he lost to LA wildfires
Billy Crystal returns to Broadway this fall with an intimate one-man show called "860." | WWL
Billy Crystal will return to Broadway in one-man show about the house he lost to LA wildfires
Billy Crystal returns to Broadway this fall with an intimate one-man show called "860." | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
NBA play-in: Heat's Bam Adebayo leaves with back injury after Hornets' LaMelo Ball grabbed his ankle on fall to ground
Ball wasn't called for a foul, and Erik Spoelstra's pleas for a replay review for a potential flagrant foul went unheeded.
Letter: It's not politics, it's the Gospel
"Funny how (Sen.) Cramer thinks it's OK to twist Biblical passages to defend his political cruelty, but not for the Pope to speak out on the very thing all ministers of the Gospel are called to proclaim – advocacy for the least of these and the message of peace, love, grace and acceptance that’s the core of who God is and what preachers are ordained to preach," writes Rev. Paula V. Mehmel.
Apple releases revamped Business app with Apple Vision Pro support
Last month, Apple announced plans to unify its enterprise tools into a free suite called Apple Business. The unified Apple...
KCS: Law enforcement called after “health concern” at Gibbs High
School officials report ‘health concern’ at campus this morning
New York Yankees respond after Aaron Judge called out team
The MLB regular season is in full swing, and teams are already battling early in the year. Some clubs have jumped out to hot starts. Others, however, have stumbled out of the gate. The New York Yankees entered Monday on…
Diarrhea-causing infection increasing in US, CDC says
Officials called the increase "a public health threat," especially since shigella is spread easily from person to person.
Eastern Market hosts All Things Detroit Day, helping small business owners
Sheds 3 and 5 hosted independent entrepreneurs Sunday, allowing them to showcase their businesses for an event called All Things Detroit Day.
GoPro's Mission 1 offers 8K 60p video and interchangeable lenses
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Barcelona squad named for Atlético 2nd leg
Hansi Flick has called up 24 players for Tuesday’s clash
Xbox CEO called Game Pass 'too expensive for players' in a leaked memo
The new Xbox CEO wrote a memo to employees addressing the current pricing of the Game Pass subscription service and suggesting changes would be coming.
Whoopi Goldberg launches WhoopInk, a Blackstone Publishing imprint
Whoopi Goldberg has launched a publishing imprint called WhoopInk | WBEN
Whoopi Goldberg launches WhoopInk, a Blackstone Publishing imprint
Whoopi Goldberg has launched a publishing imprint called WhoopInk | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
'View' stars slam Donald Trump sharing image of himself as Jesus: 'Blasphemous'
'The View' star Sunny Hostin called for the use of the 25th amendment after Donald Trump shared image of himself as Jesus: 'God is not to be mocked,' added former Trump staffer Alyssa Farah Griffin.
Mystery Tarkov-Marathon Extraction Blend, ‘Fragmentary Order,’ Raises Questions
Fragmentary Order, already being called “Starkov” by many, debuted a seven-minute cinematic trailer yesterday, dropping from new studio Rant Gaming and publisher Cor3,
Mamdani leans into ‘pothole politics’ at 100-day rally, picks East Harlem for first city-run grocery store
Mayor Zohran Mamdani used his 100-day rally Sunday night to argue that the next phase of his first term will be shaped by what he called “pothole politics” —
Ohio health officials warn of sedative detected in illegal drug supply
The drug is called medetomidine, and it's being mixed with opioids, such as fentanyl.
Apple Testing Four Smart Glasses Styles Made of High-End Materials
Apple is developing at least four different styles of smart glasses, and the company is betting that their superior design will set them apart from rival products, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Writing in his latest Power On newsletter, Gurman says that Apple's latest designs are made from a high-end material called acetate, which is "more durable and luxurious" than the standard plastic used by most existing brands.
Infantino’s FIFA: Ten years of power, politics, and so-called ethics
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Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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