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Neymar calls time on Brazil career after World Cup elimination
Brazil superstar Neymar indicated Sunday that his international career was over after the five-time World Cup winners went out of the tournament in the last 16 at the hands of Norway.That was his first international appearance since October 2023, but his only other appearance in the United States came Sunday against Norway. raa/mcd/as/rcw
PENN Entertainment (PENN) Opens New Aurora Casino As Valuation Debate Heats Up
Index moves and a new Illinois casino put PENN in focus PENN Entertainment (PENN) has just opened its US$360 million Hollywood Casino and Hotel Aurora in Illinois, while also moving from the Russell 1000 family into several Russell 2000 indices. See our latest analysis for PENN Entertainment. The recent opening of Hollywood Casino and Hotel Aurora and PENN Entertainment’s move into several Russell 2000 indices comes alongside a 50.17% 3 month share price return and a 19.13% 1 year total...
Parkour for seniors helps prevent falls, build strength, confidence
Parkour classes for older adults focus on balance, strength, and recovering safely from falls. See how these seniors are redefining healthy aging.
It’s not clear how California’s education power shift will impact schools this year
After California lawmakers and the governor changed state law so the Department of Education is overseen by the governor instead of the state superintendent, it’s unclear how the move will impact the upcoming school year. "What we hope to see is a streamlining of the administration of public education in California," Assembly Education Chairwoman Assemblymember Darshana Patel, D-San Diego, said in an interview on California Politics 360.Patel helped carry the change through legislation at the state Capitol.
California Politics 360 full episode | Major leadership shift for CA Education Dept.
As lawmakers and the governor passed the state’s spending plan for the year, they also approved a major change in who oversees the California Department of Education.
Business owners near the FIFA Fan Festival prepared for crowds. Not all saw them.
Business is down at some restaurants in Brewerytown, where some owners say temporary parking restrictions are scaring regulars away.
Timberwolves 'Ramp Up' Pursuit Of LeBron James
Another free agency suitor for LeBron James has suddenly emerged this weekend. According to Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic, the Minnesota Timberwolves are "ramping up" their push for James. They're hoping to pitch him on the idea of leading the franchise to its first NBA championship. It certainly ...
Superyacht designers reveal biggest trends among billionaire owners
Vripack's Marnix Hoekstra and Bart Bouwhuis design luxury superyachts for billionaires. Popular asks include high-end offices and gyms.
Miss Manners: My friend can’t stop talking politics at our parties
A host is frustrated with a friend who constantly brings up politics at parties despite being asked to keep the mood light, and wonders whether they must continue inviting him since he lives nearby.
Yasam Ayavefe Highlights Long-Term Business Growth Strategy Built on Operational Discipline and Sustainable Value
Greece, July 4, 2026 -- Yasam Ayavefe has outlined a long-term business growth strategy centered on disciplined execution, operational consisten...
His AI startup has a literal moat: a castle for an office
Rémi Louf is the CEO of the AI startup .txt. He works out of a castle with iron gates and a moat in Bourron-Marlotte, France.
Cease won’t desist, Jays beat M’s 2-0
Tonight’s game began with a raucous ceremonial first pitch from head coach Mauricio Pochettino and the U.S. Men’s National Team. Canada would own the rest of the night. The first inning was the canary in the coal mine, as J.P. Crawford biffed yet another throw from the hot corner in the top half, and in […]
Beach water warnings ahead of Fourth of July holiday due to elevated bacteria levels
Health officials were warning beachgoers to avoid entering the ocean at several locations due to elevated bacteria levels that could make people sick.
Queen’s Health Systems plans its first employee housing at new Kailua-Kona hospital
As Hawaiʻi's hiring and retention costs climb, some employers are providing housing options to support their workforce. We get more on that story from Pacific Business News Editor-in-Chief Janis Magin.
Completed State Budget Highlights Healthcare Champions
MHA CEO Brian Peters issued a statement celebrating healthcare champions following the Michigan Legislature passing a completed state budget.
Greenville pharmacy acquires Ballston Spa business
Kelly’s Pharmacy in Greenville has expanded into Saratoga County. According to an announcement made Wednesday, the pharmacy has acquired O’Brien Pharmacy in Ballston Spa.
My 11-year-old got me to play the Lotto; we won enough for ice cream
My son asked me to play the Lotto during some bad luck. The clerk drew a ticket with our lucky numbers, and we won enough for a family treat.
Wisconsin's most underrated players in EA Sports College Football 27
A pair of Wisconsin Badgers defensive stars seem to be underrated in the new EA Sports College Football 27 video game.
Akanji and Switzerland head into the Round of 16
Switzerland's World Cup journey continues, with Manuel Akanji helping his side secure a 2-0 victory over Algeria at BC Place in Vancouver to book a place in the Round of 16, in which Switzerland will ...
Sports quiz of the week: World Cup, Ben Stokes, Wimbledon and LeBron James
Have you followed the big stories in football, cricket, tennis, rugby union, basketball, cycling and Formula One?
Arts and entertainment throughout the region
A listing of arts and entertainment events throughout the region.
Arts and entertainment throughout the region
A listing of arts and entertainment events throughout the region.
Upgrade Your Home Entertainment Experience and Save Big 45+ Fourth of July TV Deals
Shop unmissable Independence Day deals from big-name brands including Sony, LG and Samsung, with options starting at just $150.
NFL QB rankings: Arizona Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett near bottom
Even with career numbers last season, Jacoby Brissett is one of the lowest-ranked QBs in the league, per PFF.
President Donald Trump to sit down for exclusive interview with CNBC: Live updates
Trump's interview comes as he prepares to celebrate the 250th birthday of the U.S. on July 4 with an event and fireworks on the National Mall in Washington.
Professor Universe brings science, comedy to the library
Professor Universe will make his first appearance at the St. Charles Parish Library this summer with a one-man show that combines science education and comedy. Professor Universe, portrayed by actor, clown, director and teacher Dallas [...]
I left New York for small town 5 years ago; I wish I could move back
We left New York City for a charming village about an hour away. After just a few years, we started missing the city and planning to move back.
Photo Gallery: Dev Camp Roll Call Part Two
Witness top picks and hungry invitees from Sweden to Ontario as they hit the ice in Seattle, showcasing the next generation of talent fighting for a roster spot.
Bayer shifts US glyphosate business to Ruveon after seeking tariffs on Chinese imports
Bayer said on Wednesday it is consolidating its U.S. glyphosate business into its Ruveon unit, a day after it asked Washington to impose duties on Chinese imports of the chemical used in the company's weedkiller Roundup.
Ukraine's General Valery Zaluzhny emerges as a key figure in national politics
While still hypothetical, elections have reportedly been discussed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the fall, fueling speculation about a possible candidacy by the former commander-in-chief. Like Zaluzhny, several senior officers enjoy strong public support and could play a major role in political life after the war.
Great-grandson of Wong Kim Ark praises Supreme Court ruling affirming birthright citizenship
The great-grandson of Wong Kim Ark, the Chinese American at the center of the U.S. Supreme Court case that established the constitutional guarantee of birthright citizenship, called Tuesday’s ruling a victory for all Americans, saying it reaffirmed that precedent.
Bickering Over Healthcare Coverage Disrupts House Panel Hearing
Finger pointing over the number of Americans losing health insurance roiled what otherwise would have been a technical House hearing over employee health coverage.
The engineer who became Anthropic's political secret weapon
Tom Brown, an Anthropic cofounder, helped mediate the White House complaints over Fable and Mythos. His background in AI is brief but noteworthy.
The engineer who became Anthropic's political secret weapon
Tom Brown, an Anthropic cofounder, helped mediate the White House complaints over Fable and Mythos. His background in AI is brief but noteworthy.
How Investors May Respond To PENN Entertainment (PENN) Aurora Casino Opening And Russell 2000 Shift
PENN Entertainment recently celebrated the grand opening of its new US$360 million Hollywood Casino and Hotel Aurora in Illinois, while also being moved from the Russell 1000 family of indices into the Russell 2000, Russell 2000 Value, and Russell 2000 Dynamic indices as part of the latest rebalancing. This combination of a large-scale brick-and-mortar investment and a shift toward small-cap and value-oriented index inclusion reshapes how both fundamental and index-tracking investors may...
Taylor Swift Wants Final Approval Over Travis Kelce Wedding Footage
Taylor Swift is reportedly filming her nuptials with Travis Kelce but wants the final word over the wedding footage. Sources claimed that the singer has hired a professional crew to document her speci...
Food science sector warns proposed US grant rules could weaken research independence
As the deadline for public comment approaches, a proposed overhaul of the rules governing federal financial assistance is drawing increasing attention from research institutions, universities, and industry organizations, with implications that could extend across the US F&B sector.
Smart voices in tech react to return of Anthropic's Fable and Mythos
Anthropic restores Fable 5 AI model after the Trump administration lifted export controls. Here's what people in tech are saying about the saga.
Why high earners are rushing to use this vacation-rental tax break
The Big Beautiful Bill made a tax loophole permanent for Airbnb investors. Here's how they're getting the IRS to fund their downpayments.
Airport shops sell ranch dressing as World Cup fans spark craze
World Cup fans in the US crave ranch dressing, prompting airport shops to stock it and TSA reminders for travelers.
Wild: Kawhi Leonard Traded to Raptors in Blockbuster Deal
Kawhi Leonard Traded to Raptors in Blockbuster Deal
How Would LeBron James Fit on the Philadelphia 76ers?
Imagine King James joining Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. While his elite playmaking could spark a title run, complex salary cap hurdles and roster age remains significant risks.
STARTO ENTERTAINMENT Launches the “STARTO NEWS ARCHIVES” Newsletter Service
TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jun 30, 2026--
Microsoft eyes thousands of new job cuts in coming days
Microsoft is planning job cuts that are expected to affect areas such as sales, consulting, and Xbox as it ramps up AI spending.
Trans youth athletes vow to keep playing after US supreme court sports ruling
Justices upheld laws in West Virginia and Idaho, boosting similar restrictions in 25 other states
Health officials warn of West Nile virus in mosquito in Alhambra, human infection in Long Beach
The first human case of West Nile virus in Long Beach and current mosquito-carrying activity in the San Gabriel Valley has been reported this month.
The Supreme Court’s trans sports ruling is a cautionary tale for all left-leaning lawyers
If you’re a liberal, and you’re thinking of bringing a case to the Supreme Court, don’t
I split my time between two countries for long-distance relationship
I'm in a long-distance relationship and frequently travel between the US and Denmark. Our arrangement requires a lot of planning, but it has its perks.
Supreme Court says states can ban trans girls from playing women's sports
The ruling should not affect Illinois and the 20 other states that do not bar trans student athletes from playing on sports teams that match their gender identity.
Is AI causing layoffs? This report says it's complicated.
New research has found that companies spending the most on AI aren't slashing jobs; they're actually hiring faster than their peers.
UNC basketball champion arrested after illegal sports betting scheme
Former Tar Heel Ed Davis was one of six arrested in the latest betting sting.
Cowboys news: Depth at WR could be the difference maker
All the Cowboys news that’s fit to print.
Cubs BCB After Dark: Who is the Cubs’ best reliever?
The late-night/early-morning spot for Cubs fans asks who is the best reliever in the bullpen right now.
Israeli strikes kill at least 8 in Gaza, including 2 children, health officials say
While the heaviest fighting has subsided since a ceasefire took hold in October, Israeli forces have carried out near-daily strikes, killing 1,045 Palestinians, including more than 360 women and children, according to health officials in Gaza.
Xtalks Launches Life Sciences United (XLSU), a New Global Alliance for Nonprofit Life Science Organizations
Xtalks is pleased to announce the launch of Xtalks Life Sciences United (XLSU), a global alliance and collaborative network designed to bring together nonprofit organizations across the life sciences.
Nine-year NBA veteran indicted on federal sports gambling charges
Veteran NBA shooting guard Malik Beasley has been indicted on federal charges for gambling related to a sports betting scheme, such as point shaving and prop bets, his attorney Steve Haney told ESPN. on June 29. According to Shams Charania,…
Comcast cuts NBCUniversal loose. Netflix and Apple may want a look.
Comcast spent 25 years arguing that media and broadband belonged together. Now it's breaking them apart.
Accesa Hosts 5th Edition of Tech in Motion with the Theme Engineering in the Age of Uncertainty
CLUJ-NAPOCA, Romania, June 29, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Accesa hosted the 5th edition of Tech in Motion, its annual tech conference, bringing to...
Ingredion plans global Benicaros prebiotic expansion across gut and immune health applications
Ingredion highlights that its recent acquisition of the Benicaros prebiotic is a strong strategic addition to its Healthful Solutions portfolio, supporting the company’s formulation versatility alongside expansion of health-forward and clean label ingredients. The company purchased the patented prebiotic fiber, made from upcycled carrot pomace, from NutriLeads earlier this month. With the deal, Ingredion obtained full ownership of all intellectual property, trademarks, human clinical trials, and know-how related to manufacturing Benicaros.
Cognition's CEO says token leaderboards are 'directionally correct'
Cognition CEO Scott Wu said there are better ways to incentivize employees to use AI.
Orlando Magic Have Something to Prove After Latest Power Rankings
New head coach Sean Sweeney faces immense pressure to transform Orlando's talented core into postseason contenders and silence doubters following a mediocre mid-pack ranking and trade rumors.
Miles Bridges trade grades: Suns burn another potential rebuild year, Hornets add to draft pick pile
The asset-rich Charlotte front office got a home run return with the 2033 first-round pick
California Politics 360 full episode | What to expect on California's November ballot
KCRA 3 Political Director Ashley Zavala leads conversations on California's November ballot questions, including the proposed billionaire tax.
Important Penn State prospect makes notable physical transformation
Penn State star Max Granville’s career has been stunted by injuries so far, but his body transformation is sure to excite fans.
Google employee who made nearly $1 million explains why he left
A former Google employee says AI equity, job security concerns, and years of side projects convinced him to leave and build his own company.
My 2 sons moved back in with me; my expenses have gone up
My two sons still live with me so they can save on housing costs. That means my expenses have gone up, like electricity and grocery budgets.
The great FIRE debate: People who made it work say critics miss the point
"I don't live in a van, eat rice and beans, and I've never given up traveling," said one early retiree. "That's not what the movement is about."
Kevin O'Leary's latest villain arc: data centers
Kevin O'Leary, the acerbic "Shark Tank" investor, is everywhere trying to sell a skeptical American public on the idea of a data center in their town.
Four participants join Coalition for Support of Ukrainian Science at URC 2026
Four participants—Estonia, Switzerland, the Swiss National Science Foundation, and the SaveScienceUA initiative—joined the International Coalition to Support Science, Research, and Innovation in Ukraine during the URC-2026 Conference in Gdańsk. — Ukrinform.
Brad Paisley: Data center project near Nashville Zoo is 'a monstrosity'
14-time Country Music Award winner Brad Paisley is calling on Nashville to prevent the construction of a data center near the city's zoo.
How Domo went from a $2.8 billion darling to fighting for its survival
Domo has been rocked by executive departures, new competition from AI agents, and the drunken-driving arrest of its founder and CEO, Josh James.
AI isn't killing real tech jobs. It's hitting here instead.
AI isn't killing tech jobs, says Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince. It's changing which roles companies value most.
Letters to Sports: Is Austin Reaves worth the $185-million deal?
L.A. Times readers weigh in on the re-signing of Lakers guard Austin Reaves, as well as the Dodgers' hits and misses.
Breakfast, lunch, dinner to hit 30g fiber goal: Nutrition scientist
You may eat fiber for gut health, but it plays many crucial roles in the body, from lowering cholesterol to helping to control glucose levels.
3 foods that seem healthy but may be bad for your heart: cardiologist
A cardiologist said popular "healthy" foods can actually be bad for your heart, since they're highly processed and full of additives like sugar and fat.
Why 6 Google employees left one of tech's most coveted employers
Six former Google employees explain why they left one of tech's most coveted employers.
Why 6 Google employees left one of tech's most coveted employers
Six former Google employees explain why they left one of tech's most coveted employers.
Indians in action at BWF US Open quarterfinals; Inter-State Athletics continues: Indian Sports LIVE, June 27
Here are all the updates from Indian sports on June 27, 2026.
Chicago teacher visiting every FBS stadium while bridging gap between LGBTQ+ community, sports world
A Chicago teacher is hard at work on his quest to visit every NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision stadium in America, while also strengthening bonds between the sports world and the LGBTQ+ community.
Caitlin Clark Fans Staging Boycott For Saturday's Fever Game
This Saturday's showdown between the Indiana Fever and Los Angeles Sparks has unfortunately lost some of its appeal due to Caitlin Clark's latest injury. Clark suffered a back injury during Wednesday's loss to the Phoenix Mercury. To make matters worse, she was on the receiving end of a cheap shot ...
Schwebel Baking Company to shut down after 120 years in business
DC Wrap: U.S. strikes Iran; Bolton pleads guilty
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
DC Wrap: U.S. strikes Iran; Bolton pleads guilty
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
Arts and entertainment throughout the region
A listing of arts and entertainment events throughout the region.
I took my kids to the pub to watch the World Cup
Soccer fan Jonathan Stone took his kids to watch the World Cup on a big-screen TV in a pub. He shrugged off criticism.
OpenAI launches limited preview of GPT-5.6 at US government's request
OpenAI said they were complying as part of its agreement with the Department of Defense, which allows the department to use its AI models.
Triller ghosts workers and stakes its future on SpaceX
A group of employees at Triller, a media upstart, said they haven't been paid in a year or heard from their bosses in months.
Best Prime Day deals 2026: Amazon's summer sale ends today
We're into the final hours of Prime Day. Don't miss out on our deal highlights from our top-tested picks.
How PENN’s US$360 Million Aurora Resort Shift At PENN Entertainment (PENN) Has Changed Its Investment Story
PENN Entertainment has opened the US$360 million Hollywood Casino and Hotel Aurora, replacing its former Fox River riverboat with a 388,500-square-foot, 24/7 land-based resort featuring over 1,000 slots, 50 table games, a sportsbook, 226-room hotel, spa, event center, and extensive dining options. The Aurora project, which created around 700 permanent roles and mirrors PENN’s broader shift into higher-amenity land-based properties, highlights how the company is reinvesting heavily to refresh...
Texas school board to vote on required Bible readings in public education
If approved by the Texas State Board of Education, which is controlled by Republicans, the reading list would take effect in 2030.
Should “Success” in Science Be Measured Differently?
Publication volumes are one of the main ways that success is measured for researchers today. From mentorship to real-world impact, scientists argue that “publish or perish” pressures overlook many of the contributions that drive discovery forward.
How Outward Intelligence founders bootstrapped to seven-figure revenue
Three friends with résumés spanning Google, Palantir, and Harris Poll skipped venture capital and bootstrapped their startup instead.
Slate's $24,950 EV truck is tiny and ridiculously customizable
Slate's pickup truck just revealed its sub-$25k price. So we tested out its build-your-own tool to see how the accessories work.
Former Illinois forward Ben Humrichous signs contract with Nets
Heading to Brooklyn.
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Target rolls out new attendance tracking system for workers
Target's new point-based attendance tracking system rolls out in the coming months, the latest of several changes aimed at improving store operations.