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Inside California Politics: Will ballot measures drive turnout in November?
(Inside California Politics) — A month past the primary, election season has hit a lull before campaigns reach full swing in the fall. On Inside California Politics this week, host Nikki Laurenzo s…
Scientists find the “Achilles’ heel” of deadly gut bacteria
Researchers discovered an “Achilles’ heel” shared by E. coli, Shigella, and other diarrhea-causing bacteria: enzymes they use to breach the gut’s protective mucus layer. By targeting this common vulnerability, scientists may be able to develop a single vaccine that prevents several major diarrheal infections before they even begin.
Cyberpunk 2077 reaches 40 million copies sold
CD Projekt has confirmed a new sales milestone for Cyberpunk 2077. The game has added another 5 million copies since the 35 million figure reported in late 2025.
Ecuador Robot Climbs Chimborazo as Science Gets Altitude and Attitude
A humanoid robot named Pemba Jose has climbed above 6,000 meters on Ecuador’s Chimborazo, turning a surreal mountain test into a serious question about conservation, climate science, national pride, and how Latin America monitors its hardest-to-reach frontiers today under pressure.
AYANEO NEXT 2 Strix Halo handheld starts global shipping in late July, top SKU hits $5,299
AYANEO is preparing global NEXT 2 shipments for late July after months of delays. The top Ryzen AI Max+ 395 configuration now reaches $5,299 as memory and storage costs continue to affect availability.
Penguins sign Hendrix Lapierre for two years
The Penguins reached an agreement with one of their restricted free agents on Friday getting Hendrix Lapierre to ink a two-year contract with an AAV of $1.3 million. From the team: The Pittsburgh Penguins have signed forward Hendrix Lapierre to a two-year contract, it was announced today by President of Hockey Operations and General Manager […]
New veterans business center opens in San Antonio
Before the San Antonio location, Veterans Business Outreach Centers in Texas were limited to Arlington and Edinburg.
Anthropic wants to develop its own drugs
The AI drug boom has a long way to go before reaching patients.
Mission To Boost NASA’s Swift Launches From Marshall Islands
A mission to raise the orbit of NASA’s Swift observatory has reached orbit.
India investigating Tata data leak that exposed Apple iPhone secrets
India is investigating a data breach at Tata Electronics that exposed documents linked to Apple's unreleased iPhone 18 Pro, the country's IT secretary said on Thursday in the government's first public comments on the incident.
Roma, Basel reach agreement over Calafiori’s resale clause
Riccardo Calafiori is one of the players who emerged from Roma’s youth system and has managed to establish himself on the big stage. The former Giallorossi defender won the Premier League with Arsen...
Game 88 Game Day Thread – Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
Once more into the consecutive games breach
The French-born star carrying British hopes at Wimbledon
Arthur Fery is left carrying British hopes at the All England Club after becoming the sole home player to reach the third round.
Anderson strikes tentative deal to sell forage business
Sale would allow company to pay ‘virtually’ all its creditors Anderson Hay has struck a tentative deal with an unnamed “strategic partner” to buy most of its forage business as […]
Former Olympic canoeist indicted by a grand jury after arrest at the Reflecting Pool
David Hearn, a former Olympic canoeist, has been indicted by a grand jury in Washington, DC, Superior Court, after being arrested last month when he reached into the Reflecting Pool, a source familiar with the charges told CNN.
I got laid off after 31 years at Disney
Chris Bess says a social media post about losing his Disney job reached millions and expanded his professional network.
Swiatek overpowers Pliskova to reach third round
Iga Swiatek overpowers former finalist Karolina Pliskova as she continues her Wimbledon title defence by reaching the third round in straight sets.
A strange LIGO signal could reveal the missing link behind dark matter
An unusual gravitational wave signal has renewed hopes that primordial black holes, long considered purely theoretical, may finally be within reach of discovery. If confirmed, they could solve one of astronomy's greatest mysteries by explaining the nature of dark matter.
The real test for AI in healthcare is making care more human
The healthcare AI market is on track to reach $491 billion by 2032. The real test of success will be whether the technology makes care feel more human.
Bowles Extremely Impressed With 1 Quality of Rueben Bain Jr.
Defying concerns over his physical reach, the rookie edge rusher is wielding veteran-level intelligence to ignite Tampa Bay’s pass rush and solve a long-standing defensive drought.
Climate scientist who “proved” humanity is warming Earth says government report got it wrong
A pioneering climate scientist is challenging a U.S. government report that cited his research while reaching what he says is the exact opposite conclusion. Benjamin Santer and his colleagues say decades of satellite data clearly reveal the atmospheric “fingerprint” of human-caused climate change. Their new peer-reviewed analysis argues the report contains major scientific errors and should not be relied upon in climate policy decisions.
Global ocean temperatures are entering “uncharted territory,” climate scientists say
Sea surface temperatures in late June reached nearly 70 degrees Fahrenheit on average, shattering records
Judges resume sentencing over shooting at Texas immigration facility
The case has been closely watched by critics who say the prosecution could have wide-reaching impact on protests and First Amendment free-speech rights.
85% of hospitals experienced ‘vendor disruption’ in last year, as most brace for cyberattack inevitability, report shows
An analysis from cybersecurity consultancy group Omega Systems reveals that most healthcare practices place too much trust in their third-party vendors to secure patient data, neglecting their own IT systems in the process.
Dave Roberts reaches 1,000 wins in Dodgers win over A's
SACRAMENTO — Milestones have become commonplace during this era of Dodgers baseball, but Tuesday night delivered one that placed Dave Roberts in a class of his own.
Bethesda Health Clinic reaches $25M fundraising goal for new Tyler facility
Clinic says new 61,000-square-foot building will serve 50% more uninsured patients starting spring 2027
See the first look for 'Neagley,' from the world of 'Reacher,' which premieres on September 16
Maria Sten stars as a private investigator Frances Neagley in a gripping new action series set in the world of Lee Child's best-selling novels.
Mamdani, City Council reach agreement on $125.8 billion budget
Mamdani said the budget will help make public transit more affordable.
Opinion: Proposed cuts to federal funding put the stars out of reach for Alaska science students
For students at UAA and across the state, federal research support can be the difference between opportunity here and leaving for good.
Community Health Workers Learn Perinatal Outreach Approaches at UAMS Training
LITTLE ROCK — Twenty community health workers (CHWs) from across Arkansas recently gathered in Springdale with a shared goal: to build connections and learn how to better support mothers across the state. Hosted by the UAMS Institute for Community Health Innovation, the three-day Perinatal CHW Upskill Training provided interactive, hands-on…
Supreme Court upholds state bans on transgender athletes in girls and women's sports
The ruling on a pair of separate cases from Idaho and West Virginia could carry far-reaching implications for transgender rights.
Alan Ritchson's 'Reacher' sets season 4 premiere date a month ahead of 'Neagley' spinoff debut
'Reacher's series is returning for its fourth season this summer, just in time to usher in the premiere of its Maria Sten-led spinoff series.
Reaching communities close to hostilities in Ukraine
Primary health care teams in Ukraine are reaching 121 locations within 60 km from active hostilities. This is part of the largest primary health care intervention in frontline areas in the country. European Union (EU)-supported teams are delivering essential services to people trapped by constant shelling and severe security constraints in 7 regions where no pharmacies operate, no health facilities function and evacuation remains impossible for residents.
Pilates Isn't Just a Workout Anymore. It's Becoming a Business Strategy.
Pilates has become the new marketing infrastructure, giving brands a trusted way to reach customers through shared experiences.
Iran’s leverage over Strait of Hormuz snarls Trump’s push for a deal
Washington and Tehran are back at the negotiating table after a fragile ceasefire. But experts remain skeptical the two sides are close to a nuclear deal, even as calm oil markets reduce pressure to reach one.
Kristaps Porzingis remains with Warriors on two-year deal
The Golden State Warriors have reached an agreement to retain former NBA champion Kristaps Porzingis.
Recently acquired radiology group reports data breach
The Women’s Center for Radiology, which was acquired by Solis Mammography in January, hired a cybersecurity firm to help investigate the scope of the matter.
World Cup 2026: Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (2-3 on penalties) - Mohamed Ouahbi's side set up last-16 clash with Canada
Match report as Morocco beat Netherlands to reach the World Cup last 16; Cody Gakpo had given Netherlands the lead but Issa Diops stoppage-time header sent the tie to extra time and penalties; Morocco triumphed in a dramatic shootout to set up a last-16 clash with co-hosts Canada
Dept. of Social and Health Services announces massive data breach involving personal information
The employee may have accessed names, dates of birth and social security numbers. A total of 8,600 records were accessed.
Scientists may have finally found how Alzheimer's spreads through the brain
A common brain protein may be giving Alzheimer’s disease an unexpected way to spread, carrying toxic Tau proteins from damaged neurons into healthy ones. By blocking these harmful protein packages before they reach new cells, researchers believe it may one day be possible to slow the disease's relentless progression.
Kristaps Porzingis reportedly reaches 2-year, $40 million extension to return to Warriors
Kristaps Porzingis was only dealt to Golden State ahead of the deadline last season.
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
Philadelphia health officials making plans to keep residents safe during "dangerous heat wave"
Philadelphia will declare a heat health emergency when the heat index reaches 100, which is expected on Wednesday.
Preaching the Gospel—not politics—at America’s 250th anniversary
As we approach the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, preachers face a sacred responsibility—to proclaim the Gospel and heed the signs of the times, without getting lost in political ideologies.
Arkansas basketball coach John Calipari to be inducted into Memphis Sports Hall of Fame
Calipari reached the NCAA Tournament six times with Memphis, including a national runner-up finish in 2008, and won the 2002 NIT title.
Colorado Supreme Court: Redistricting plans for 2028 election cannot proceed under state constitution
The Colorado Supreme Court blocked all attempts at redrawing congressional district boundaries for the 2028 election from reaching the ballot on Monday, concluding each of the proposed ballot measures violated the constitutional single-subject requirement. The court considered five distinct, but related, ballot measures. Three proposals would have redrawn U.S. House of Representatives districts to give […]
Third Coast Foundry opens San Francisco hub for Midwest startups
UChicago, Illinois and Northwestern have opened the Third Coast Foundry in San Francisco to help Midwest startups reach Silicon Valley investors.
Florida Panthers Games to Air on 'The Spot — South Florida,' Reaching Fans from the Keys to the Treasure Coast
Scripps Sports’ WSFL-TV and WHDT Announce Rebrand as ‘The Spot– South Florida’
How to end a TV show
The creative minds behind From talk about learning from Lost, fan expectations, and wrapping up a story loaded with mysteries.
Apple accuses India of 'copy-pasting' rivals' claims in antitrust investigation
Apple has accused Indian antitrust investigators of "copy-pasting" its rivals' claims and failing to properly conduct its own investigation in concluding the U.S. tech giant breached competition laws, calling for the findings to be quashed, regulatory papers reviewed by Reuters showed.
The science of a splashdown: Why only 7 home runs have reached the Allegheny River on the fly
They gathered in their brightly colored kayaks and rubber rafts, several dozen of them at least. There along the north shore of the Allegheny River they...
Tilak Varma enters unwanted record books after slowest-ever...
Tilak Varma's resilient half-century was a lone bright spot for India in their narrow one-run loss to Ireland, despite becoming one of the slowest Indian fifties in T20Is. Walking in during a top-order collapse, Varma battled tough conditions to reach his milestone. Ultimately, Ireland secured a historic series win, ending India's impressive streak.
Kadyn Proctor Can Solidify Dolphins Offensive Line in Big Way
The Miami Dolphins' offensive line may be good, but it can reach a strong height if rookie Kadyn Proctor can live up to expectations.
AI could unleash ‘single greatest productivity revolution’ if Washington avoids overreach: report
The Unleash Prosperity report, titled "Boomsday Not Doomsday," argues AI could help ease housing costs, boost productivity and move workers into higher-value roles.
How did EBS science show reach Netflix's top 10?
For years, South Korea’s public Educational Broadcasting System has struggled to rival the massive budgets of global streaming originals and star-driven mainstr
Alan Ritchson's New Unusually Silent 'Motor City' Movie Described as 'John Wick Meets Reacher'
Alan Ritchson's latest movie is unusual because of its almost complete lack of dialogue.
Crusaders placed under transfer embargo by IFA
Crusaders have been placed under a transfer embargo by the Irish Football Association [IFA] after a breach of the Northern Ireland Football League [NIFL] rules and regulations.
AI coding agents gain trust as developers skip reviews
AI coding agents like Cursor are increasingly trusted to work autonomously, with a rise in AI-generated code reaching production directly.
Johns Hopkins Layoffs Reach Carey Business School As Federal Cuts Deepen
JHU is shedding about 110 jobs, Carey School included, just 6 weeks after Carey banked a $50 million gift.
Government overreach won’t fix youth gender medicine
The real cure for bad science is better clinical trials, not lawsuits.
Government overreach won’t fix youth gender medicine
The real cure for bad science is better clinical trials, not lawsuits.
Business People
Northwest Arkansas-based CS Bank has recognized its Chairman of the Board, John Fuller Cross, for reaching 70 years in the banking industry.
Business People
Northwest Arkansas-based CS Bank has recognized its Chairman of the Board, John Fuller Cross, for reaching 70 years in the banking industry.
Business People
Northwest Arkansas-based CS Bank has recognized its Chairman of the Board, John Fuller Cross, for reaching 70 years in the banking industry.
Srikanth reaches US Open final; India vs England in hockey Pro League; final day of Inter-State Athletics: Indian Sports LIVE, June 28
Here are all the updates from Indian sports on June 28, 2026.
US Army commander used drones, C4-packed robots to clear breach
A recent drill saw dozens of drones targeting enemy weapons, sensors, and positions before soldiers attempted to approach.
Mo Salah moves closer to €80m contract deal
Following a poor campaign - both individually and collectively - the Egyptian King reached an agreement to rip up his £400k per week contract one year early.The 34-year-old is currently strutting his...
Local business celebrates 10 year anniversary with $5,000 in cash prizes up for grabs
It is a celebratory feat for any small business to successfully reach 10 years in operation.To mark their 10 year anniversary, Escape It Grandview will be host
Texas A&M horticultural sciences students, faculty earn national recognition
Students and faculty within the Texas A&M Department of Horticultural Sciences received national awards for research, outreach and academics.
NASA's canceled Artemis hardware contracts reached $5.9 billion, audit finds
NASA was on track to pay nearly half a billion dollars for a stage adapter. A stage adapter should not cost half a billion dollars.
Sweden: European Social Rights Committee calls for an end to Sweden’s two-tier healthcare system
Amnesty International welcomes a landmark decision by the European Committee of Social Rights finding that Sweden breached the right to health without discrimination.
What we learned as Bryce Harper caps Phillies' shocking comeback trilogy
The Phillies erased another five-run deficit, rallied late again and reached the season’s halfway point with another reminder of how much has changed.
California’s Billionaire Tax Kicks Off a Democratic Civil War
The divisive proposal heads to the ballot after attempts to reach a compromise deal failed.
Sony files WARN notice for layoffs at Bungie in Bellevue
Sony Interactive Entertainment is reducing the workforce at Bungie, with layoffs affecting a significant number of employees.
Golden State Valkyries employee named in Sports Business Journal's Forty under 40 list
The Golden State Valkyries have created a winning culture on and off the court. After making WNBA history last season becoming the first expansion team to reach the playoffs, the success is also extending throughout the organization.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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Nick’s Picks | Soccer, Elections, Entertainment and More …
World Cup Hits Half Time Kansas City’s contribution to the World Cup reaches its halfway point this week. Thursday's Netherlands-Tunisia match is Game 3 of six at Kansas City Stadium, making it a natural time for a progress report: How are we doing? First up: Have we solved the traffic headaches around the stadium? The