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Entertainment Thought Leader: Keynote Speaker Scott Steinberg
Entertainment thought leader, futurist keynote speaker and consulting expert Scott Steinberg. AI innovation change leadership TV movies music games books apps - 3000 brands served!
New “optical tornado” technology could transform quantum communication
Scientists have created tiny “optical tornadoes” — swirling beams of light that twist like miniature whirlwinds — using a surprisingly simple setup based on liquid crystals. Instead of relying on complex nanotechnology, the team used self-organizing structures called torons to trap and manipulate light, causing it to spiral and rotate in intricate ways. Even more impressively, they achieved this effect in light’s most stable, lowest-energy state, making it far easier to generate laser-like beams with these unusual properties.
ECU Notes: Computer science students, faculty embrace future with AI
Artificial intelligence can do a lot of things, but controlling the weather isn’t one of them.
Pokemon Z development build found, footage released
Brand new footage of Pokemon Z – which was never released – has now been shared. It goes without saying, but this was an extremely early development build. MDTravisYT posted about the discovery on social media. It’s noted that the source code has an “upper_fake” branch that compiles as VERSION_Z. This has a “unique” title screen alongside some “new” mega...
iPhone 18 Pro Max design unit hands-on video shows 25% smaller Dynamic Island; variable aperture likely
Hands-on video of the iPhone 18 Pro Max dummy units reveal a 25% smaller Dynamic Island and a thicker camera array with larger lenses, hinting at the rumored variable aperture for the main 48MP camera. The iPhone 18 Pro Max appears boring next to iPhone Ultra/Fold, but this might be the biggest front upgrade for Apple's Pro iPhone since iPhone 14 Pro.
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. ($LYV) President, CEO and Director 2025 Pay Revealed
We estimate that the President, CEO and Director of Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. ($LYV), Michael Rapino, received a compensation of $30,500,368 in 2025. This is an increase of 85.97% from an estimated $4,279,556 in 2024.These estimates are based on a new DEF14A filing, filed with the SEC on April 23, 2026. Note that parsing errors may occur.You can track $LYV on Quiver Quantitative's $LYV stock dashboard.$LYV Stock Insider Trading Activity$LYV
Caesars Entertainment, Inc. ($CZR) CEO 2025 Pay Revealed
We estimate that the CEO of Caesars Entertainment, Inc. ($CZR), Thomas R. Reeg, received a compensation of $17,199,029 in 2025. This is a decrease of -6.82% from an estimated $18,371,934 in 2024.These estimates are based on a new DEF14A filing, filed with the SEC on April 23, 2026. Note that parsing errors may occur.You can track $CZR on Quiver Quantitative's $CZR stock dashboard.$CZR Stock Insider Trading Activity$CZR Stock insiders have traded
Shumaker Partner Robert A. Boland Delivers Cleveland State University College of Law’s 2026 Entertainment & Sports Law Symposium Keynote Presentation
Shumaker's Robert A. Boland delivered the keynote presentation during Cleveland State University College of Law’s 2026 Entertainment & Sports Law Symposium.
After 54 years in business, Mon Kou in Attleboro to close in May
After 54-years, the Mon Kou restaurant in Attleboro will close for good.
Turtle Beach Command Series keyboard and mouse with touchscreens announced
Turtle Beach has expanded its portfolio of gaming keyboards and mice with two new models of the former and three new of the latter. The Command series KB7 TKL and KB5 feature touchscreens, and so does the MC7 mouse.
Moment of Science: Discovery of Galileo’s notes opens window into astronomy history
Turning back the pages through centuries of science! Dan Smith has the story of an Italian historian's incredible find on a library shelf. 🔭📜
Hofstra Guest Speaker Highlights Why Public Health Can No Longer Work in Silos
Public health challenges don’t exist in silos, and neither should their solutions. “The importance of the One Health approach – looking at humans, animals, plants, environments, and ecosystem health – we have to use a broad-based approach when we look at complex diseases,” said Dr. Laura Kahn, a
Penn Entertainment CEO Snowden touts 'strong execution' for largest quarterly increase in three years
It’s fair to say Penn Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden is bullish on the company’s recent performance. During Thursday’s first quarter earnings call, Snowden noted visitation rates at brick-and-...
Next-gen OnePlus 16 leak reveals key display upgrades
The next-generation OnePlus 16 has surfaced in a new leak. The upcoming flagship may see major display upgrades, including a refresh rate of up to 240Hz.
MHS sports weekly notebook from the diamond to the court
High fives for boys tennis The Marblehead High boys tennis team (5-1) made it five in a row after beating hosts Swampscott (5-0, April 13) and non-league Lynnfield (4-1, April 16) last week. It’s always good to beat your longtime rival, and that’s what the Magicians did to the Big Blue, under the direction of
Here’s What’s In Crimson Desert’s Biggest Patch Since Launch
Crimson Desert just unleashed a new patch that is so sprawling it's hard to get through all the notes. So I'm here to pull out the best ones.
How Rhode Island’s Labor Movement Made Its Weight Felt in Politics
Over the last decade Rhode Island has been a hotbed of progressive, pro-worker legislation. But it wasn’t always this way. It took years of proactive organizing by the labor movement on legislative
Achieving Health Equity Demands Shift to Structural Change
Advancing health equity in medicine requires a clear-eyed understanding of history, a rejection of race-based clinical assumptions and a commitment to transform research into practice, said Dr. Joseph L. Wright, senior vice president and chief health equity officer of the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), in his keynote address for Weill Cornell Medicine’s eight annual Diversity Week.
Apple Releases iOS 26.4.2 and iPadOS 26.4.2 With Bug Fixes
Apple today released minor iOS 26.4.2 and iPadOS 26.4.2 software updates for the iPhone and iPad, respectively. The updates are available two weeks after Apple released iOS 26.4.1 and iPadOS 26.4.1. The new software can be downloaded on eligible iPhones and iPads over-the-air by going to Settings → General → Software Update. According to Apple's release notes, the software updates contain unspecified bug fixes and security updates.
Google teases Gemini-powered Siri upgrade during Cloud Next keynote
Apple’s upcoming Siri overhaul got a moment of stage time during Google’s Cloud Next ’26 opening keynote today. Google highlights...
Google Meet will take AI notes for in-person meetings too
AI summaries for meetings in-person or on Zoom and Teams.
Google Meet adding in-person ‘Take Notes for me’ and Drive ‘projects’
Google announced a suite of new Workspace features across Drive, Sheets, Meet, and more. These updates are rolling out over the coming weeks.
The behavioural science behind vaccination acceptance
The ECDC, Europe’s public health agency, has collated a set of tools for improving immunisation rates based on social and behavioural science
Cougar science sidelined as pressure takes over
Editor’s Note: This is the final part of a three-part series. By the time Washington’s cougar debate reached its peak intensity, the conflict was no longer limited to public meetings or policy discussions. It had infiltrated the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife itself. What had started as pressure from outside — from parents, hunters,
Here's What's New in iOS 26.5 So Far
iOS 26.5 has been in beta since late March, with a third beta released this week. The update is relatively minor so far, which is not too surprising given that Apple is starting to shift its focus towards iOS 27. Apple will unveil iOS 27 during its WWDC 2026 keynote on June 8, and the update should be released in September. iOS 26.5 lays the groundwork for two changes, including end-to-end encryption for RCS in the Messages app and ads in the Apple Maps app.
Carderock Scientists Inspire Future Innovators at Calvert County MESA Day
Naval Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division (NSWCCD) representatives engaged with students in a rural Maryland community during the Calvert County MESA (Mathematics, Engineering, Science Achievement) Day at Huntingtown High School, April 9. Through an inspiring keynote speech and a live demonstration of a Boston Dynamics robot dog, Carderock scientists highlighted pathways to naval engineering careers, reinforcing the Navy's commitment to building the future STEM workforce by bridging the distance to underserved communities.
Connection Takes Root at Annual Northwest Arkansas Health Summit
National and state leaders in health care and community outreach recently convened at the Fayetteville Town Center to engage, learn, and collaborate on solutions to improve access to care across Arkansas. The April 2 summit kicked off with a keynote discussion by Neel Shah, chief medical officer of Maven Clinic,…
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Cardinal Commerce Notes: Botetourt business expands safe room offerings, First Piedmont names CEO, plus news from Roanoke, Lynchburg, NRV
Get up to speed on recent business happenings.
Same problems, different night for Penguins in Game 2 loss to Flyers
For two days all the Penguins could talk about was turning the page on their Game 1 loss to the Flyers. Their problem was they still ended up taking notes...
How will inflation impact business this Mother’s Day?
BECKLEY, WV (WVNS) – With Mother’s Day is just around the corner, some have expressed concern about whether inflation will impact the way business owners approach the holidays. Many noted spikes in co...
New Microsoft Pro and Surface Laptop release delay rumoured
A reliable source has elaborated on Microsoft's launch plans for its Surface Laptop 8 and Surface Pro 12 releases. Unfortunately, neither are now expected to arrive as soon as previously suggested. New Surface Laptop and Surface Pro models are still tipped to debut with Intel and Qualcomm processor options, though.
Personnel note: Shutts & Bowen launches Education Section, adds Jordan Clark
'His leadership and insight will be instrumental as we expand our services in the education sector.'
CBS Sports: Michigan football's spring game reveals strong defense
Michigan football's spring game showed a strong defense, but CBS Sports noted the Wolverines didn't reveal much.
Heroes of the Storm Live Patch Notes
New patch arrived with a new mount, map updates, major Arthas rework, and balance changes!
Women in Science Symposium welcomes NASA scientist, author as keynote speaker
Colorado State University’s Women in Science Network hosted the annual Women in Science Symposium April 15 in the Lory Student Center Theatre. This year’s event centered on the theme of “Learning from the Earth and Giving Back,” and featured several women involved in the STEM field, including keynote speaker Kimberley R. Miner. “The theme is...
I finally figured out when to use Gemini Notebooks vs NotebookLM — here’s the winning workflow
This "sync loop" is a productivity game-changer
Xiaomi 18 Pro Max leak reveals Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro and more details
Details have leaked about an upcoming Xiaomi phone, which is expected to be the Xiaomi 18 Pro Max. The device is said to bring notable upgrades, including the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro chipset.
Advancing epidemic and pandemic preparedness through research readiness: SEAR Unity Studies Network Sites chart the way forward in 2026
On 25 March 2026, WHO Regional Office for the South‑East Asia Region (SEARO) convened the first meeting of the SEAR Chapter of the Unity Studies Network Meeting in 2026 to take stock of progress and plan next steps for strengthening epidemic and pandemic preparedness across the Region. The meeting focused on reviewing the ongoing adaptation of selected, standard Unity Study methodologies, sharing field implementation experiences from 2025, and identifying key priorities to guide collaborative work in 2026.Held virtually, the meeting brought together representatives from six Unity Studies network sites across five countries (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand) as well as participants from all three levels of WHO.The meeting took place against the backdrop of ongoing regional efforts in South‑East Asia to strengthen early investigations and studies for epidemic and pandemic preparedness, with a focus on pandemic influenza and other emerging respiratory pathogens with epidemic and pandemic potential. In this context, and as part of preparedness for the rapid generation of evidence, the WHO Health Emergencies Programme in SEAR (WHE/SEAR) encourages Unity Studies sites to adapt prioritized, standardized Unity Study protocols to their national contexts. This approach supports the generation of timely and reliable evidence to inform public health decision‑making during epidemics and pandemics.These efforts are supported through a combination of experience sharing, participation in the global Unity Studies network webinars, capacity‑building of the national public health workforce, and regional collaboration that promotes inter‑country, inter‑agency, and inter‑ministerial action. In parallel, sites are encouraged to explore diversified funding sources to help sustain research preparedness over the long term.Discussions highlighted the importance of WHO’s catalytic financial support through the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (PIP) Partnership Contributions (PIP‑PC). When combined with national and institutional resources, this support enables countries and sites to maintain continuity of activities at a core level and remain prepared to respond rapidly and effectively to future epidemics and pandemics.Regional and Global Updates: Opening the session, Dr Pushpa Ranjan Wijesinghe, Programme Area Manager, Pandemic and Epidemic Management (PEM) Unit, WHO Health Emergencies Programme, highlighted the progress made in operationalizing the Unity Studies Network across the Region and acknowledged the collaborative efforts of WHO at all three levels, together with country unity studies sites. He emphasized the availability of limited but catalytic funding through the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (PIP) Partnership Contribution (PIP‑PC) workplan at SEARO to sustain network activities in 2026, while encouraging sites to leverage additional funding sources to expand implementation.Representing SEARO, Dr Ashok Basnet, consultant, Pandemic Influenza Preparedness reported that, at the regional level, the Unity Studies Network currently includes six sites across five countries: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. He noted that in 2025, catalytic funding supported protocol adaptation, training, and pilot implementation. In addition, a regional Unity Studies symposium held during the Global Public Health Summit in Sri Lanka strengthened and advocated collaboration between the Unity Studies site, national decision‑making forum, relevant technical units of the ministry of health, WHO and other partners.The symposium also highlighted the role of early investigations and studies as a key component of a multi‑source surveillance system needed at country level to generate a broad range of evidence. It underscored the critical role of country Unity Studies sites and similar research entities in generating evidence to support public health decision‑making during epidemics and pandemics.Participants of the WHO GISRS Unity Studies Sites Network- SEAR Chapter Meeting 2026 (Photo credit- PEM/WHE/SEARO). SEARO also updated participants on ongoing efforts to develop a regional Unity Studies webpage and to promote participation in global knowledge‑sharing platforms, including webinars and the WHO Community of Practice. Priorities for 2026 include supporting the implementation of Unity protocols, strengthening collaboration and experience sharing across sites, documenting and publishing findings, integrating Unity Studies activities as a component of multi-source national surveillance systems, and building workforce capacity.Dr Nickle Boddington of the Global Influenza Programme (GIP) at WHO Headquarters, which coordinates the Unity Studies Network globally, provided updates on global Unity Studies activities, noting that the network has expanded to 16 sites worldwide. New and updated protocols, including rapid clinical severity assessment tools and standardized data platforms, are being developed to support implementation. The global Community of Practice has also been launched to facilitate technical exchange, and continued support will be provided to sites for protocol adaptation, ethical approvals, and readiness for early investigation during outbreaks. Updates from Unity Studies sites in SEAR in 2025Unity Studies sites shared progress and experiences in implementing protocols across diverse country contexts. Sites initiated activities in 2025 using catalytic funding from SEARO, complemented by the mobilization of internal national resources. The Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), Bangladesh, reported the adoption and piloting of investigation protocols on non‑seasonal influenza and emerging respiratory diseases during recent avian influenza outbreaks, demonstrating a multi‑source funding approach involving government, WHO and One Health partners.The Hamdard Institute of Medical Sciences and Research (HIMSR), New Delhi, India, highlighted the piloting of household transmission investigation studies, the expansion of the national Unity Studies network, and the contribution of study findings to global evidence through published outputs. The All-India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India, shared experiences from large‑scale seroprevalence studies conducted during the COVID‑19 pandemic, recent efforts to strengthen national Unity network sites through training activities, and plans to initiate multi‑centre studies on respiratory viruses.Similarly, Prince of Songkla University, Thailand, highlighted its experience in developing integrated surveillance and diagnostic protocols for multiple respiratory pathogens, enhancing readiness for targeted investigations of emerging threats. The University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Sri Lanka, reported ongoing engagement with the Ministry of Health and exploration of additional funding sources to initiate studies. Meanwhile, the National Public Health Laboratory, Nepal, provided updates on continued coordination with national stakeholders to initiate implementation, despite delays related to the country context.Across sites, shared experiences underscored the importance of protocol adaptation, multisectoral collaboration, and sustainable funding to operationalize Unity Studies and generate evidence for public health action.Discussions and Way ForwardThe meeting reinforced key priorities for 2026, including strengthening unity studies protocol implementation, enhancing collaboration, knowledge sharing, integrating research as a component of national multi-source surveillance systems, and ensuring that generated evidence informs public health decision‑making. Participants also emphasized the importance of documentation, visibility, and leveraging multiple funding sources, and agreed on the following action points.Unity Studies Sites and WHO Country Offices:Advance adoption and implementation of at least one Unity protocol, continuing activities initiated in 2025 with catalytic funding, supplemented with other sources of funding where feasible.Document site-specific experiences, outcomes, and lessons learned; participate in regional and global knowledge-sharing platforms including WHO webinars and the Community of Practice.Work closely with ministries of health to establish unified national platforms for translating generated evidence into national public health decision-making. WHO Country Offices may facilitate technical support and complementary, synergistic funding opportunities where feasible. WHO Regional OfficeCoordinate with WHO Country Offices to support implementation of core unity studies activities by network sites through catalytic funding and provide technical guidance and virtual engagement opportunities throughout 2026.Facilitate the participation of all Unity Studies sites in the regional meeting on Unity Studies implementation in October 2026, to be held back‑to‑back with the Annual SEAR Regional PIP‑PC Meeting; develop and host a SEAR Unity Studies website; and mobilize support from academic institutions within the SEAR Unity Studies Network to support the development of regional manuscripts that showcase Unity Studies activities to scientific audiences and promote knowledge‑sharing.Explore complementary funding opportunities and partnerships to sustain and expand network activities across the Region.WHO HeadquartersProvide global technical guidance, updated protocols, and toolkits to support the implementation of Unity Studies in SEAR.Facilitate engagement of SEAR sites in global webinars, the Community of Practice, and opportunities to showcase their work.Support joint publications, inclusion of SEAR experiences in global outputs, and identification of additional funding and collaborative opportunities to strengthen Unity Studies activities.
Oppo officially details camera-centric compact phone before launch
Oppo will launch a new flagship compact phone, the Find X9s Pro, on April 21 in China. The company has now shared details about the phone's display, chipset, and battery.
Huawei Pura X Max: Pre-launch hands-on images show iPhone and Samsung how it's done
Newly leaked hands-on images of the Huawei Pura X Max have surfaced online hours before the official April 20 launch, offering the first real-world look at the world’s first "wide foldable". The live photos confirm a disruptive 16:10 aspect ratio and a premium textured design, effectively beating Samsung and Apple to the market with this new form factor. While the hardware showcases Huawei's innovation leadership, the device will launch without Google Play Services, running HarmonyOS instead.
4.5mm iPhone Ultra/Fold cases and "final design" renders leak; big MagSafe mystery
Leaked iPhone Ultra/Fold cases confirm a wider book-style foldable design for Apple’s 2026 flagship. However, the leaked images suggest a conflict between the device's ultra-thin 4.5mm chassis and MagSafe compatibility, as dummy units lack magnets while cases include them. Known iPhone Ultra/Fold features include a 7.8-inch display, A20 Pro chip, and a late 2026 release date.
Massive Intel Nova Lake leak reveals multiple chips with copious amounts of cache
A new leak has highlighted exactly how much total cache each Intel Nova Lake chip could feature at launch. The top-spec model reportedly has more cache than AMD’s newly announced Ryzen 9 9950X3D2.
Business Notes for April 19, 2026
The Gazette’s Business Notes is a compendium of the week’s promotions, new hires, certifications, added business lines and business events, among other items, in Cedar Rapids, Iowa City and the
Opinion: For its mental health ecosystem, UCLA needs a more imperative culture
Editor’s note: This story includes discussion of suicide. If you or someone you know needs help, the national suicide and crisis lifeline in the United States is available by calling or texting 988.
PAID POST: CSCU and State Officials Launch Connecticut’s Quantum Science Center
The Connecticut State Colleges and Universities Center for Quantum and Nanotechnology enables hands-on learning and research opportunities to build the talent pipeline CT needs to compete in advanced technologies.
Braves News: Ha-Seong Kim update, Austin Riley, more
Atlanta Braves news and notes from Saturday
AMC Entertainment price target raised to $2 from $1.50 at B. Riley
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Business notes: Milton-Freewater’s Drive-In theater reopens for the season
Spring is here. And with that comes outdoor movies at the M-F Drive-In.
Pixel Laptop: Return of Google Pixelbook laptops spotted in new OS release
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PCC Notes: Engineering and Physical Science Club presents at symposium
WINTERVILLE — Eight members of the Pitt Community College Engineering and Physical Science Club presented an academic research poster during the 2026 NC Space Symposium this month in Raleigh.
Notebooks are now available for free Gemini app users
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Coastal Empire entrepreneurs invited to Savannah business summit spotlighting funding, leadership and growth
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Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings to step down, departure is 'spooking investors'
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PCC Notes: Engineering and Physical Science Club students present poster at symposium
WINTERVILLE — Eight members of the Pitt Community College Engineering and Physical Science Club presented an academic research poster during the 2026 NC Space Symposium this month in Raleigh.
Apple to Unveil iOS 27 in June With These New Features Beyond Siri
Apple is expected to unveil iOS 27 during its WWDC 2026 keynote on June 8, and the update should be released in September. Below, we outline some of the new features that are rumored to be coming with iOS 27, beyond the long-awaited more personalized version of Siri. iOS 27 will reportedly support 5G satellite internet connectivity, although this functionality might be limited to the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro models with Apple's next-generation C2 modem.
OnePlus' new power bank and charger are capable of 120W output
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Thomas and Chelsea Carballo to headline Michigan Medicine Women’s Health Luncheon
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Flutter Entertainment plc ($FLUT) CEO 2025 Pay Revealed
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Personnel note: EDGE Communications adds comms, field talent
'Robert and Diego each bring a strong skillset and clear commitment to the work.'
Why workplaces need a gendered health approach
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New poll shakes up California governor race, debate stage
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Inside the surreal anti-science conference where Trump’s EPA chief gave the keynote address
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Fraud allegations may spark additional probe
Staff found 15 instances when this occurred but noted that time limits for making a decision made it “impossible to determine the exact number of fraudulent QC’s claimed by Collector 1.”
Red Wings at Panthers: Notes, Lines, Goalies, How to Watch
The post Red Wings at Panthers: Notes, Lines, Goalies, How to Watch appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now. The Detroit Red Wings (41-30-10) are on the road today to play the Florida Panthers (39-38-4). The Red Wings have […] The post Red Wings at Panthers: Notes, Lines, Goalies, How to Watch appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now.
OnePlus Watch 4: New Wear OS smartwatch detailed before global release
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Take Note: Denver Revising 40-Year-Old Entertainment Venue Licensing Requirements
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New Sony PS6 Portable leak confirms one of the biggest features of handheld console
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Merlin Entertainments: Liability Management Playbook for the Senior Notes
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StarTalk: w/ Andy Weir on the Science of Project Hail Mary (Transcript)
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Sony Xperia 1 VIII: Launch details of Sony's new flagship phone surface in the wild
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US dispatch: UN women’s conference day 3—mixed progress for women’s political…
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Hades II Bonus Content Arrives On Switch 1 & 2, Here Are The Full Patch Notes
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Pirates’ Paul Skenes reaches historic milestone in 59 starts
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Google Home rolls out more Gemini voice updates for music, notes, more
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Cleveland County Commissioners approve up to $50 million bond sale for Rock Creek Entertainment District arena
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Cook Political Report shifts four Senate races toward Democrats
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2026 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: Matt’s Pref List
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New ultra-premium foldable released internationally with big launch discounts
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Business Notes: NSU raises $147M; McDonald’s to open in Virginia Beach
Norfolk State University’s Now Is Our Time campaign raised $147 million, exceeding its original $90 million goal. View the latest business news in Hampton Roads.
Jumbo Package: Who stood out at A Day?
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Political notes: 'Flowers' for the living, cupcakes for the interim birthday caucus
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9 questions radiology practices should ask when pursuing ‘disruptive innovation’
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8.8-inch OLED, Snapdragon 8 Gen 5: High-end compact tablet gets official launch date
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Paul W. Smith: Are friends avoiding political talk about Trump and Iran?
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BIZNOTE: After almost a quarter-century, Avalon Glassworks looking for new ownership for their unique West Seattle business
By Tracy Record West Seattle Blog editor More change is on the way for the heart of the Luna Park mini-business district. Shannon Felix and Jon Felix are looking for new ownership for Avalon Glassworks, which they've owned for 23 of its 33 years at 2914 SW Avalon Way. Their one-of-a-kind business - West Seattle's only commercial ...
Yankees Social Media Spotlight: At Least Jeter’s Happy
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Oppo officially reveals Find X9 Ultra days before global launch
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Business Notes for April 12, 2026
The Gazette’s Business Notes is a compendium of the week’s promotions, new hires, certifications, added business lines and business events.
I replaced my notes app with Gemini’s new Notebooks — and I’m not going back
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MacBook Neo punches above its weight in Windows 11 gaming test
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Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Business notes: Providence St. Mary Medical Center welcomes new surgeon
A new surgeon joined St. Mary Medical Center, and the United Way's popular mini golf tournament returns to Walla Walla.
Framework CEO warns AI boom may lead to a scenario where "personal computing as we know it is dead”
Framework CEO Nirav Patel warns that the AI boom and a “winner-takes-all” scramble for chips and storage could drive up component costs and push consumers toward cloud-leased, closed devices, effectively ending personal computing as traditionally understood. While acknowledging progress in repairability across the industry, he positions Framework’s upcoming Next Gen Event as part of a renewed pledge to defend user ownership through upgradable, repairable hardware and local control over data and computation.