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Heat Get Major LeBron James-Giannis Update From NBA Insider

An NBA insider revealed a major new detail linking LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo as the Heat await a free agency decision. The post Heat Get Major LeBron James-Giannis Update From NBA Insider appeared first on HEAVY.

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Jul 8 • 8:44 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
FDA releases report on toxic metals in tampons and potential health risks

Previous research had raised safety worries over whether metals such as arsenic and lead in menstrual products could pose health risks.

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Jul 8 • 3:37 PM EDT • Health • nbcnews.com
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From Our Partners: Eastside Small Businesses Can't Afford to Ignore Cybersecurity Anymore

Today, alongside familiar challenges such as inflation, workforce pressures, and economic uncertainty, small-business owners face another growing risk that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: cybersecurity.

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Jul 8 • 12:22 PM EDT • Business • 425business.com
Another big premium hike on the horizon

FDA's crackdown on online ketamine retailers, unprecedented health care premium hikes, and more health news from Morning Rounds

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Jul 8 • 7:43 AM EDT • Health • statnews.com
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Detroit Pistons trade Marcus Sasser to Dusty May's Dallas Mavericks

Marcus Sasser, who had several big moments in 3 years with the Detroit Pistons, averaged 5.2 points and shot 41.5% from 3 last season in 38 games.

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Jul 7 • 11:52 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
VIDEO: Universal Celestial Goodnight marks new era in nighttime entertainment

Universal Celestial Goodnight at Epic Universe brings full-scale fireworks, synchronized lighting, and dancing fountains to Celestial Park in what may be the resort's most ambitious nighttime spectacular yet.

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Jul 7 • 11:13 PM EDT • Entertainment • clickorlando.com
Universal Celestial Goodnight marks new era in nighttime entertainment
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Jul 7 • 10:59 PM EDT • Entertainment • clickorlando.com
Samsung unveils Galaxy Z Fold 8 deal for $1,230 off ahead of July Unpacked

Samsung Unpacked will take place later this month in London, and all eyes are on the Galaxy Glasses.

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Jul 7 • 7:00 PM EDT • Technology • zdnet.com
Randi Mahomes speaks at Ultimate Sports Parent Experience on South Plains

Patrick Mahomes' mother shares lessons on staying involved in kids' sports

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Jul 7 • 6:56 PM EDT • Sports • kcbd.com
Doom developer id reportedly cut in half as part of Xbox layoffs

A legendary studio is losing a lot of staff.

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Jul 7 • 12:09 PM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
Knicks superstar Jalen Brunson undergoes left wrist surgery
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Jul 7 • 11:59 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Pippa Middleton dons breezy dress at Wimbledon, Kate visits hospital

Pippa Middleton embraced a breezy summer look while attending Wimbledon in London.

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Jul 7 • 10:30 AM EDT • Entertainment • centraloregondaily.com
Downriver businesses losing thousands as DTE power outages stretch into days after Friday storms

DTE outages Downriver have cost businesses thousands as power remains out days after Friday's storms.

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Jul 6 • 6:21 PM EDT • Business • wxyz.com
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'Prime' time at Acadia Rep

The Tuesday-Saturday performances start at 8 p.m. with a final 2 p.m. show on Sunday.

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Jul 6 • 4:00 PM EDT • Entertainment • ellsworthamerican.com
Kings reportedly waiving DeMar DeRozan after trade talks stall out
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Jul 6 • 2:38 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Xbox cuts 3,200 jobs as gaming business struggles

As Microsoft continues to invest majorly into AI, it's gaming division, Xbox, is making major cuts to its workforce and selling several of its studios.

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Jul 6 • 2:15 PM EDT • Business • latimes.com
USF College of Marine Science lab fire: Scientists save irreplaceable samples

A lightning strike triggered a fire that gutted the USF College of Marine Science lab on May 2, destroying the second floor and damaging what the flames did not reach with water and smoke.

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Jul 6 • 1:47 PM EDT • Science • tampabay28.com
Why Taylor Swift's backup dancer is ruffling feathers with wedding look

If upstaging the bride is a cardinal sin of wedding etiquette, one guest from Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's nuptials might have some explaining to do.

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Jul 6 • 10:49 AM EDT • Entertainment • centraloregondaily.com
Brooke Shields slams 'South Park' creators over restaurant worker dispute

Brooke Shields is continuing to criticize the creators of "South Park," Trey Parker and Matt Stone, over a worker dispute at their Casa Bonita restaurant in Denver.

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Jul 6 • 10:49 AM EDT • Entertainment • centraloregondaily.com
Atletico Madrid agree deal to sign PSG’s Lee Kang-in

Atletico Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain have struck an agreement for the transfer of Lee Kang-in (25), according to a report from RMC Sport. Lee joined PSG from Valencia back in 2023 but has always ...

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Jul 6 • 8:20 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Eagles News: Philadelphia’s defining number for 2026

Philadelphia Eagles news and links for 7/5/26.

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Jul 5 • 9:22 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Newcastle slap huge price tag on Arsenal target Bruno Guimaraes

Newcastle United reportedly want a £77 million fee to sell Bruno Guimaraes, who is attracting strong interest from Arsenal. The Gunners are looking to bolster their options in central midfield, and ...

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Jul 5 • 2:35 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Angels blown up by Boston on Independence Day

The Angels fell behind fast and stayed there after a shaky first inning from Sam Aldegheri.

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Jul 5 • 1:09 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Why Circulation Health Supplements Are Gaining Attention for Supporting Healthy Vascular Function and Everyday Wellness, According to PureHealth Research

PureHealth Research is highlighting growing consumer interest in circulation wellness and the role of targeted nutritional supplementation in maintaining healthy blood flow, vascular function, and overall cardiovascular wellness.Circulation health supplements commonly feature ingredients such as Omega-3 Fatty Acids, Berberine and Butcher's Broom, which are frequently included in formulations designed to promote healthy circulation and vascular health.

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Jul 4 • 11:00 AM EDT • Health • finance.yahoo.com
Timberwolves 'Ramp Up' Pursuit Of LeBron James

Another free agency suitor for LeBron James has suddenly emerged this weekend. According to Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic, the Minnesota Timberwolves are "ramping up" their push for James. They're hoping to pitch him on the idea of leading the franchise to its first NBA championship. It certainly ...

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Jul 4 • 10:45 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Knicks Success Assert Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) as a Top Stock to Buy According to Ariel Investments

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (NYSE:MSGS) is one of the top stocks to buy according to Ariel Investments. On June 23, Susquehanna reiterated a Positive rating on Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (NYSE:MSGS) and raised the price target to $430. The new price target represents significant upside as the stock is trading at about $403 […]

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Jul 4 • 9:36 AM EDT • Sports • finance.yahoo.com
25 Movies That Perfectly Capture What An American Summer Actually Feels Like

Bask in the essence of summer with these essential seasonal picks.

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Jul 4 • 9:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • huffpost.com
A hidden weakness in deadly cancers could lead to powerful new treatments

A UCLA study has identified a hidden Achilles' heel in aggressive small cell cancers that have resisted new treatments for decades. Scientists found that tumors lacking the RB gene become critically dependent on the protein E2F3 for survival. Blocking E2F3 shut down tumor growth in laboratory models, and existing FDA-approved drugs may be able to exploit this vulnerability. The discovery could pave the way for faster development of more effective therapies.

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Jul 4 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Bemotrizonal is coming to a sunscreen near you. Here’s what to know about the new ingredient.

Learn about the latest FDA-approved sunscreen ingredient, Bemotrizinol, and why it's changing American sun protection.

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Jul 4 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • nola.com
From media empires to crypto: the best business books to read this summer

Keza MacDonald’s Super Nintendo and Martin Sixsmith’s Suing the Kremlin are among these top reads

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Jul 4 • 1:00 AM EDT • Business • yahoo.com
MSU's McCoy Biagioli makes history with second Michigan Amateur title

McCoy Biagioli, 20, of White Lake, beat Grand Blanc's Logan Price, 28, in the championship match Friday at Eagle Eye Golf & Banquet Center in Bath.

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Jul 3 • 7:13 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Could Your AI Content Land Your Business In Court?

Generative AI is helping businesses create content faster, but it is also creating new copyright and intellectual property risks that many companies do not understand.

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Jul 3 • 2:12 AM EDT • Business • forbes.com
LeBron James' birthplace urges NBA star, 'Come home...please'

Akron's Summa Health, birthplace of LeBron James, posted a not-so-subtle message on Instagram urging the NBA star to finish his career in Cleveland.

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Jul 2 • 8:22 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Donald Trump's Freedom 250 celebration suffers setback as falling panel nearly crushes dancers

Donald Trump's beleaguered Freedom 250 celebration suffered another potentially disastrous setback on Thursday, when a large panel on the White House main stage fell, nearly crushing a group of dancers.

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Jul 2 • 7:49 PM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
Slimmed-down ESSENCE Fest lineup could ease delay issues

The annual festival, which has called New Orleans home for nearly three decades, is featuring performances from artists including Babyface and Cardi B, along with appearances from former First Lady Mi...

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Jul 2 • 5:58 PM EDT • Entertainment • yahoo.com
FDA clears AI-enabled CCTA plaque analysis tool from Keya Medical

The company now has multiple FDA-cleared algorithms for evaluating CCTA results.

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Jul 2 • 3:16 PM EDT • Business • cardiovascularbusiness.com
Why the USMNT can't appeal Folarin Balogun's suspension after controversial World Cup red card
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Jul 2 • 11:30 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Cowboys Headlines: Laziest approach, rookie CB's opportunity, WR ranks

The Cowboys may not have shattered tradition this offseason, but looking at it as a failure is a weird take.

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Jul 2 • 7:59 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Why the USMNT can't appeal Folarin Balogun's suspension after his controversial World Cup red card
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Jul 1 • 11:20 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Red Wings Sign Depth Defenseman

The post Red Wings Sign Depth Defenseman appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now. The opening of the NHL’s 2026 Free Agency period has seen the league trying to round out their rosters with […] The post Red Wings Sign Depth Defenseman appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now.

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Jul 1 • 5:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
NBA champion Mitchell Robinson reportedly agrees to 3-year, $47.4M deal with Celtics
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Jul 1 • 11:33 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
'60 Minutes' shake-up continues with departure of longtime producer

The newsroom at "60 Minutes" is facing another goodbye. Henry Schuster, a longtime producer on the CBS program, revealed his departure in a LinkedIn post Monday, June 29.

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Jul 1 • 10:20 AM EDT • Entertainment • centraloregondaily.com
FDA says Zyn can market its pouches as safer than cigarettes

The influence of the alcohol industry on policy, AI Claude for scientists, and more health news from Morning Rounds

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Jul 1 • 7:50 AM EDT • Science • statnews.com
Servers recalled after glitch results in radiologists reading images for wrong patients

The issue could cause a reader to unintentionally report on the wrong patient when using interactive applications, according to a notice from the FDA.

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Jul 1 • 12:02 AM EDT • Business • radiologybusiness.com
RFK Jr. wants to make it easier to get peptides. FDA scientists disagree.

The health secretary has advocated for deregulating certain peptides, but FDA scientists point to a lack of data about their safety and effectiveness. Some have not been studied in humans.

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Jun 30 • 3:36 PM EDT • Health • nbcnews.com
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FDA scientists flag concerns with peptides, the trendy molecules RFK Jr. supports

Documents reviewing the research on peptides note lack of good evidence of efficacy or safety. Yet an FDA panel will consider easing access to them later this month.

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Jun 30 • 2:32 PM EDT • Science • npr.org
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FDA scientists flag concerns with peptides, the trendy molecules RFK Jr. supports

Documents reviewing the research on peptides note lack of good evidence of efficacy or safety. Yet an FDA panel will consider easing access to them later this month.

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Jun 30 • 2:32 PM EDT • Health • npr.org
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New York cardiologist performs first procedure in US with FDA-cleared imaging tech

The OpusWave Dual Sensor Imaging captures both IVUS and OFDI, providing users with two complementary views of the coronaries at the same time.

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Jun 30 • 2:23 PM EDT • Business • cardiovascularbusiness.com
Anthropic launches Claude Science in bid to expand revenue streams ahead of IPO

Anthropic is launching its Claude Science product as it seeks to increase revenue streams ahead of its anticipated initial public offering.

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Jun 30 • 1:00 PM EDT • Science • finance.yahoo.com
'Supergirl' is a decent standalone movie — so why is everyone acting like it’s awful?

'Supergirl' has been in theaters for less than a week, and it seems everyone is quick to call it a failure after a disappointing opening weekend at the box office. But does it actually deserve the backlash it's receiving?

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Jun 30 • 12:57 PM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
Peptides are everywhere in health and beauty, but does the science actually back up the claims?

Peptides are everywhere — promising to fix wrinkles, weight gain, and even torn ligaments. But are they safe? The FDA is moving to expand access. Here's what a medical expert wants you to know. 👇

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Jun 30 • 12:07 PM EDT • Science • scrippsnews.com
Exclusive: FDA allows ZYN to sell pouches on health benefits

The pouches can be marketed as less risky than cigarettes.

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Jun 30 • 10:52 AM EDT • Health • axios.com
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FDA digital leader hints at coming AI policy updates

Today's health tech news includes virtual PT for a whole country, what the FDA is considering on AI policy, and more

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Jun 30 • 9:32 AM EDT • Health • statnews.com
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Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville

We’re told there was damage to the back corner of the business.

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Jun 30 • 8:51 AM EDT • Business • 14news.com
Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville

Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville

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Jun 30 • 8:51 AM EDT • Business • 14news.com
Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville

Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville

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Jun 30 • 8:51 AM EDT • Business • wowt.com
Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville

Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville

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Jun 30 • 8:51 AM EDT • Business • fox5vegas.com
Half of states sue over Medicaid work requirements

FDA peptide panelists, a new study on Covid and flu shots, and more health news from Morning Rounds

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Jun 30 • 8:14 AM EDT • Health • statnews.com
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Contributor: Mental health care isn't ready for psychedelic side effects

Accelerated FDA approval will invite recklessness. But don't block these important medications. Take steps to prepare.

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Jun 30 • 6:01 AM EDT • Health • latimes.com
FDA staff recommendation undercuts RFK Jr.’s push to expand peptides

The chains of amino acids are increasingly marketed for antiaging and health benefits. However, medical experts say many of those claims have not yet been fully tested.

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Jun 30 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • washingtonpost.com
AI cuts hospital system's MRI wait times by more than 50%

The health network, which operates 37 hospitals in California, drastically reduced scheduling delays after integrating an FDA-cleared algorithm designed to speed up imaging acquisition times.

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Jun 30 • 1:55 AM EDT • Business • radiologybusiness.com
Toronto Maple Leafs invite Matt Lahey to development camp

Michigan State sophomore Matt Lahey will be participating in the Toronto Maple Leafs development camp.

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Jun 29 • 10:49 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
3-star receiver Darnell Jackson Jr. commits to Utah

The Utes received their third commitment of the day as three-star Texas wide receiver Darnell Jackson Jr. announced his pledge to Utah on Wednesday.

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Jun 29 • 7:53 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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FDA panel on peptides will include experts who promote the unproven chemicals favored by RFK Jr.

The Food and Drug Administration is meeting next month to consider easing restrictions on several peptides, a group of unapproved drugs popular with followers of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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Jun 29 • 7:31 PM EDT • Health • pbs.org
Weston Port, three-star LB, commits to Michigan football

Three-star linebacker Weston Port committed to U-M in the class of 2027 on Monday, June 29.

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Jun 29 • 7:13 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
FDA approves surgical device for high-risk aortic procedures

The AMDS Hybrid Prosthesis was designed to help clinicians treat DeBakey Type 1 dissections complicated by malperfusion. It works as a complement to hemiarch replacement, preserving the native arch and making reinterventions possible if needed.

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Jun 29 • 1:23 PM EDT • Business • cardiovascularbusiness.com
Alicia Keys cries, Springsteen speaks during emotional Clive Davis funeral

Bruce Springsteen, Alicia Keys and more stars are turning out to honor Clive Davis.

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Jun 29 • 10:48 AM EDT • Entertainment • centraloregondaily.com
Bill Maher upstaged by Trump impersonator at Mark Twain Prize ceremony

Bill Maher might be getting a taste of his comedic karma.

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Jun 29 • 10:48 AM EDT • Entertainment • centraloregondaily.com
IU Health opens one of nation's first FDA-cleared 3D-printing studios

It's changing how doctors work and talk to their patients.

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Jun 29 • 6:18 AM EDT • Health • axios.com
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Raveheart by Graeme Armstrong review – ravers rebel in a Scottish political satire

A veteran techno DJ embarks on a campaign of civil disobedience in this passionate and at times hilarious tale of underground resistance

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Jun 29 • 4:00 AM EDT • Politics • theguardian.com
Benchmark Scores Don’t Break. Clinical Reality Does. The Health AI Readiness Illusion.

Nature Medicine's frontier AI evaluation exposes a dangerous gap: models acing medical benchmarks collapse under adversarial pressure, and the FDA has no…

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Jun 29 • 2:49 AM EDT • Health • clinicaltrialvanguard.com
Former Sharks D Brent Burns Signs Extension With Avalanche
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Jun 28 • 8:10 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Got the tennis bug? How to play sport without paying

As the world's best players begin play at Wimbledon, how can you get into sport on a budget.

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Jun 28 • 7:06 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial

Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to

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Jun 28 • 3:45 PM EDT • Health • astrazeneca-us.com
Iran Might Be The Unluckiest Sports Team Ever

After two late goals in another game sealed Iran’s fate, Team Melli was left to rue one of the most brutal exits in World Cup history.

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Jun 28 • 11:41 AM EDT • Sports • time.com
Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics

FDACS moves fast on the mealybug threat, while Ye's Tampa concerts proceed despite pushback.

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Jun 28 • 5:30 AM EDT • Politics • floridapolitics.com
Everything we know about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s wedding

NEW YORK — There are more people ostensibly invited to celebrate the love story of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce than there are tidbits of publicly available information about the

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Jun 27 • 3:08 PM EDT • Entertainment • recorderonline.com
Author Meg Cabot says she's read the 'Princess Diaries 3' script 'and it was amazing'

Meg Cabot, author of the 'Princess Diaries' book series, says she's read the script for 'The Princess Diaries 3' starring Anne Hathaway and it's 'amazing.'

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Jun 26 • 8:29 PM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
Americans keep poisoning themselves with semaglutide, other weight loss drugs

These incidents became much more common after the FDA started approving GLP-1 drugs for chronic weight management in 2021.

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Jun 26 • 4:52 PM EDT • Business • cardiovascularbusiness.com
Trump election bill fight brings House business to a halt

A Republican revolt over President Donald Trump's election overhaul bill has thrown the House into disarray.

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Jun 26 • 8:33 AM EDT • Business • scrippsnews.com
Trump election bill fight brings House business to a halt

A Republican revolt over President Donald Trump's election overhaul bill has thrown the House into disarray.

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Jun 26 • 8:33 AM EDT • Business • wxyz.com
Former Illinois forward Ben Humrichous signs contract with Nets

Heading to Brooklyn.

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Jun 26 • 1:24 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Travelers Championship brings business boost and traffic headaches for Cromwell-area shops

As golfers compete at the Travelers Championship, nearby restaurants and shops in the Cromwell area are seeing the tournament’s impact on business, with some owners welcoming the crowds and others pointing to traffic challenges.

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Jun 25 • 6:16 PM EDT • Business • wfsb.com
Making Our Own Luck

We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.

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Jun 25 • 4:48 PM EDT • Science • goodscience.substack.com
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