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SDOL school board appoints new Interim Business Administrator
Board members of the School District of Lancaster unanimously voted to appoint Charles Linderman as the district's Interim Business Administrator.
A Previously Banned Apple Watch Health Feature May Soon Make a Comeback
Apple has been embroiled in a six-year legal battle over one of its Apple Watch health apps. The end may finally be in sight.
Google Wallet adds Live Update for flight tracking
As previously teased, Google Wallet for Android now offers Live Updates for tracking your current flight. If you add...
On the Hill: Health Care Reauthorizations, Congressional Hearings
House leaders plan votes this week on reauthorizing rural health and telehealth programs, as well as a proposed directive on lung cancer research. Legislation to be taken up under suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority for passage, includes H.R. 2493, which would reauthorize rural health care grants through fiscal 2030, and has been unanimously approved by the House […]
The next evolution of The Verge’s homepage is here
We’re continuously improving how The Verge works for you.
'Nations need to prepare now': Key Atlantic ocean current is much closer to collapse than scientists thought
An alarming study claims the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is weakening more than than believed previously. But experts say its findings are far from the final word.
This new camera captures what happens in a trillionth of a second
Scientists have unveiled a breakthrough imaging method that can capture the hidden details of events unfolding in trillionths of a second. This new technique doesn’t just track how bright something is—it also reveals subtle structural changes that were previously invisible, all in a single shot. By effectively turning ultrafast phenomena into detailed “movies,” researchers can now watch plasma form, electrons move, and materials transform in real time.
Victor Wembanyama unanimously named NBA Defensive Player of the Year -- and it should be the first of many
The 7-foot-4 Spurs superstar became the first unanimous winner in league history, a feat he's likely to repeat
New Microsoft Pro and Surface Laptop release delay rumoured
A reliable source has elaborated on Microsoft's launch plans for its Surface Laptop 8 and Surface Pro 12 releases. Unfortunately, neither are now expected to arrive as soon as previously suggested. New Surface Laptop and Surface Pro models are still tipped to debut with Intel and Qualcomm processor options, though.
NASA’s Voyager 1 spacecraft down to just two working science instruments
The iconic spacecraft launched nearly 49 years ago and is running perilously low on power
Harry Cohen opponent drops challenge after residency question
Florida Politics previously reported that John Scott Butherus II did not live in the district he sought.
Footballs could be designed to reduce impact of heading
Scientists believe footballs could be designed to reduce the impact of heading after new research discovered the action caused a previously unreported pressure wave energy transfer to the brain.
High Runner’s High: Marijuana and running in joint use across North Ashland
Running and cannabis use have several similarities. They both challenge a person’s lung capacity, they both generally result in an increased appetite, and they can both be enjoyed indoors or outside. Despite the overlap, the idea to participate in both simultaneously as a community is a relatively new concept. Chicago natives Anakaren Ramirez and Carlos...
Shuhei Yoshida says he was ‘fired’ from his role as PlayStation studio president because he ‘didn’t listen to’ Jim Ryan
Yoshida previously claimed he was forced to take on a new indie role or leave the company…
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Retaliatory Strikes and Escalation Dynamics
The fact that Iran simultaneously targeted US bases in the region and Israel marked a significant difference in the scale of the retaliation.
Ford CEO said there's a reason he chose to drive Xiaomi and not Tesla
Farley famously drove a Xiaomi SU7 for six months in 2024 and said he did not want to give it up.
2 people shot, 1 seriously injured at Birmingham business Sunday morning
Police said that no one is in custody at this time.
Curing U.S. Health Care, Part I
In 2008, much to their own surprise, leading Democrats unified around a program of major health care reform. Policy wonks had spent years developing the concepts behind what eventually became Obamacare; big Democratic victories in the 2006 midterms and the prospect of controlling both Congress and the presidency made it possible to imagine turning those ideas into reality. During the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama advocated similar plans, based on those ideas, for expanding insurance coverage. And it happened! The Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010. When it was fully implemented in 2014, millions of Americans got health insurance: Impressive as the raw numbers are, they don’t tell the whole story. Before the ACA, even upper-middle-class Americans often found it impossible to get health insurance if they had pre-existing medical conditions. Many Americans were trapped in jobs they wanted to leave but couldn’t for fear of losing their employment-based coverage. Meanwhile, dire predictions from the usual suspects about runaway costs proved wrong. In fact, overall U.S. medical spending has grown much more slowly since the ACA was enacted than before. But the U.S., alone among advanced nations, still falls far short of providing universal health care. As you can see from the chart above, 8 percent of the population was still uninsured in 2024, a number that is set to rise over the next two years as a result of Republican policies. True, many of the uninsured in 2024 were undocumented immigrants, who we don’t try to cover. But there are still a lot of uninsured. Moreover, a significant number of Americans who have health insurance are in fact underinsured. As a result, they are at risk of incurring devastating healthcare costs and are sometimes forced to forgo needed care. This number is set to rise sharply in the next two years as a result of Republican policies adopted under Donald Trump. And not only is the U.S. unique among advanced countries in its under-provision of health care coverage, it also incurs by far the world’s highest healthcare costs per capita. So now may well be a good time to get behind a new push for major health reform — an effort, if you like, to finish the job begun under Obama. Today’s primer is devoted to the economics of health reform. During his failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Donald Trump famously complained, “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.” Actually, we did know — and it’s not that complicated. Health economists understand the principles very well. And because health policy varies greatly among advanced nations, we know a lot about what works and what doesn’t. This will be the first in a series about health reform. Beyond the paywall I’ll address the following: 1. Why markets can’t be trusted to deliver healthcare 2. Routes to universal healthcare 3. What works? In a follow-up post I’ll discuss the pros and cons of different approaches, and possible paths forward for the United States.
NBA playoffs 2026: Kevin Durant ruled out for Game 1 vs. Lakers
Durant had previously been listed as questionable for the start of the first-round series.
Common cleaning sponge found to release trillions of microplastic fibers
That “magic” sponge under your sink may be hiding an environmental downside. While melamine sponges are famous for effortlessly scrubbing away stubborn stains, they slowly break down as you use them—shedding tiny plastic fibers that wash into water systems. Researchers estimate that globally, these sponges could release over a trillion microplastic fibers every month, potentially entering the food chain and affecting wildlife.
A step toward stability? Atlanta health professionals react to CDC nomination
Dr. Erica Schwartz must still be confirmed by the Senate. Metro Atlanta health professionals and former CDC employees are ‘cautiously optimistic.’
Texas Medical Board sanctions three doctors for delayed care that led to the deaths of two pregnant women
The Texas Medical Board has disciplined three doctors ProPublica previously investigated whose patients died after receiving delayed or inappropriate pregnancy care under the state’s strict abortion ban.
Renowned physicist alarmed by 'unheard of' number of scientists dying or vanishing now on White House's radar
Multiple scientists linked to UFO research, nuclear labs and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have mysteriously vanished or died in recent years.
Exclusive | Ilhan Omar Says She Isn’t a Multimillionaire, Blames Accounting Error
The Minnesota Democratic congresswoman, facing potential investigations pushed by President Trump and House Republicans, said she isn’t as wealthy as documents she previously submitted to Congress suggest.
'My fire is there' - Howe comes out fighting
This was the day when Eddie Howe channelled his inner Mikel Arteta. "My fire is there," the Newcastle United head coach said as he echoed words from his Arsenal counterpart. Having appeared a little flat at his news conference a week previously – even before a subsequent defeat against Crystal Palace - a defiant Howe came out fighting on Friday.
UM students to compete in 37th business startup challenge
A panel of 24 evaluators from across Montana meticulously reviewed over 103 submissions, selecting 14 finalists to compete in this year’s event.
The 3 forces quietly dismantling the business model that made enterprise software fabulously profitable
Roundtables with senior business leaders in San Francisco and New York revealed a consensus: AI isn't just threatening SaaS, but the entire industry.
Carrick needs Man Utd form reversal
It has been interesting to observe how Manchester United have been assessed in the wake of Monday's disappointing home defeat by Leeds, and particularly the reaction to Michael Carrick. What had previously been viewed as calmness in the technical area and a sense of stability gained from not making many changes, was suddenly viewed as inaction and questions were raised about why Carrick did not bring on any substitutes. To that end, Manchester United are not doing well.
KUSTOM ENTERTAINMENT AND CYCURION ANNOUNCE AGREEMENT ON TERMS FOR SALE OF LEGACY VIDEO SOLUTIONS SEGMENT
TARGET JUNE 30, 2026 CLOSING DATE OVERLAND PARK, KS and MCLEAN, VA, April 17, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Kustom Entertainment, Inc. (Nasdaq: KUST) (“Kustom” or the “Company”), and Cycurion, Inc. (Nasdaq: CYCU) today announced they have entered into a revised, non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (“MOU”) that establishes revised terms for the sale of Kustom’s legacy video solutions segment (the “Business”) to Cycurion from the previously announced MOU on January 22, 2026. The parties have moved
iPhone 18 Pro's Four Rumored Colors Revealed, Including 'Dark Cherry'
A source said to be familiar with Apple's supply chain today revealed the color options Apple is planning for the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and the upcoming foldable iPhone. Image via Macworld. The information comes from Macworld, which says the signature new color for this year's Pro models will be Dark Cherry, a deep wine-like red. While other sources had previously reported on a "Dark Red" option, the hue is said to be considerably closer to wine than a brighter red.
How Swalwell’s exit — and Trump’s entrance — reset the California governor’s race
In the muddled California gubernatorial race, Democrats are simultaneously growing more confident and more uncertain.
Ronda Rousey reveals minimum fighter pay in MVP
Fighter pay in mixed marital arts has been a hot button topic for years. While it has increased, it's still not where a lot of people would like, including former UFC women's bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey. Obviously, the biggest stars garner the biggest paydays, but the debuting fighter's ...
Magic Johnson's transition from basketball to business
NBA icon Magic Johnson delivered a high-energy, deeply personal talk at Wake Forest University’s Face-to-Face Speaker Forum on Tuesday night, shifting seamlessly from storytelling to a masterclass in business, discipline and community impact. Interviewed by college basketball commentator Jay Bilas, Johnson commanded the stage — and eventually the aisles — blending humor, sermon-like energy and […]
Former Southeast Missouri Softball Coach Lana Richmond and Sports Information Director Ron Hines Elected to OVC Hall of Fame
BRENTWOOD, Tenn. – Former Southeast Missouri sports information director Ron Hines (posthumously) and softball coach Lana Richmond and former UT Martin tennis coach Dennis Taylor have been elected to the Ohio Valley Conference Hall of Fame.
SRP councilman had donated $200K to Turning Point before elections
The financial relationship between Turning Point and candidate Nick Vanderwey had not been previously disclosed. "I think they do good work," he said.
Colorado state legislators must recognize EMS is essential
By Dusty A. Johnson Currently, emergency medical services (EMS) clinicians such as EMTs and paramedics are not listed as essential in Colorado, and that is not OK. A few weeks ago, the Colorado House of Representatives unambiguously passed a bill to designate emergency medical services as an essential service. My bill is long overdue in […]
How low should blood pressure go? Science has the answer
New research suggests that aiming for a lower blood pressure target may deliver bigger heart health benefits than previously thought. Using large datasets and simulation models, scientists found that keeping systolic blood pressure below 120 mm Hg could reduce the risk of heart attack, stroke, and heart failure more than higher targets.
Seattle Reign Goalkeeper Evan O’Steen signs extension through 2030
Today, the Seattle Reign announced that goalkeeper Evan O’Steen has signed a contract extension through 2030. She becomes the longest contracted player on the roster. O’Steen previously became the youngest goalkeeper signing in club history at just 17 years old. “Securing Evan O’Steen through 2030 is an important step in building long-term stability within our […]
Packers mock draft: All pre-draft visitors edition
The Packers take pre-draft visits seriously, and visitors often end up in Green Bay. So why not an all-visitor mock draft?
Trump predicts oil prices will drop ‘tremendously’ despite recent surge
President Donald Trump sits down with FOX Business' Maria Bartiromo to discuss escalating Middle East tensions, his warning to Iran on nuclear weapons and why he believes gas prices will drop ahead of the midterms.
In Charlotte, Kamala Harris calls out Trump’s ‘obviously wrong’ Pope Leo post
The former vice president and presidential candidate was back in Charlotte Tuesday night promoting her campaign memoir.
Harrisburg appoints new business administrator; council concerned with his experience, hasty vote
Harrisburg has a new chief of staff. At a meeting Tuesday, City Council approved Antonio Megna as the new business administrator, a position that has been vacant since a legal battle between council and the mayor resulted in the former office-holder’s termination. Megna previously served as the special assistant to the business administrator for about […]
Minneapolis Schools withheld money from employee health plan account for 10 months
The school district’s financial maneuver, which has not previously been reported, risked creating a shortfall in the health care account.
Scientists Uncover Hidden Force Powering Yellowstone’s Supervolcano
A new geodynamic model is reshaping how scientists understand supervolcanoes, revealing that their magma systems may be far more diffuse and dynamic than previously believed.
Ethics panel clears Life Science Hub board member for paid adviser gig under ‘hardship’ exception
The Rhode Island Ethics Commission unanimously approved a staff recommendation Tuesday allowing Patrice Milos to serve as a paid advisor to the Life Science Hub, despite Milos' recent role on the 15-person, volunteer board for the agency.
Abodi hits back at outgoing FIGC President Gravina: ‘Always because of politics’
Italian Minister for Sport Andrea Abodi has hit back at the outgoing FIGC President Gabriele Gravina, who previously hinted that the football association did not receive sufficient backing from the go...
'Cherki has bought true freedom and creative magic'
Manchester City are finding their stride at the perfect time and it's the most daunting of warnings being issued simultaneously to those of an Arsenal persuasion. Mikel Arteta's side stumbled and Pep Guardiola's players pounced and at the heart of that deadly punch was Rayan Cherki, who grabbed the Chelsea game by the scruff of its neck to take all three points. Chelsea frustrated and on numerous occasions threatened to do their London rivals a favour in the first half on Sunday, but it was City who stood firm, albeit whilst not creating too much themselves.
Grasp Hires Chevalier as New Chief Executive
Grasp Technologies has appointed Maria Chevalier as CEO, succeeding Chris Wilson. Chevalier, a former corporate travel buyer, has extensive experience in travel management and previously served on Grasp's board. Her goals include focusing on innovation and client-centric strategies.
Cleveland County Commissioners approve up to $50 million bond sale for Rock Creek Entertainment District arena
The Cleveland County Board of County Commissioners unanimously approved the sale of an up to $50 million bond anticipation note for OU’s planned arena in the Rock Creek Entertainment District
Mavericks part ways with director of health Johann Bilsborough
Johann Bilsborough had previously worked with the Celtics and the NFL's New England Patriots, before spending two seasons with Dallas.
Microsoft is working on yet another OpenClaw-like agent
The company has also previously introduced agents that are able to complete tasks, Cowork and Copilot Tasks.
Overwatch out on Nintendo Switch 2 tomorrow, up to 60 FPS and more
We have an update on Overwatch (previously known as Overwatch 2), as Blizzard just confirmed the release date for the Nintendo Switch 2 version. As it turns out, it’ll be out tomorrow. One of the highlights of Overwatch on Nintendo Switch 2 is support for up to 60 frames per second for both docked and handheld play. Blizzard says the...
SCORE Offers Free Business Mentoring Sessions
Local entrepreneurs and small business owners in Pasadena have a valuable resource at their fingertips with the ongoing SCORE One-on-One Mentoring Sessions. These free and confidential appointments provide individuals with expert guidance on starting, running, or growing a small business, courtesy of SCORE, the nation’s largest network of volunteer business mentors. The sessions are designed to offer personalized advice and strategic insights from experienced professionals. SCORE, which stands for Service Corps of Retired Executives, is a non-profit organization and a key resource partner of the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA). Its mission is to foster vibrant small business communities through dedicated mentoring and education. The organization comprises a network of seasoned business owners and executives who generously volunteer their time to support the next generation of entrepreneurs. As SCORE states, their mentoring is a “free, confidential service for anyone starting, running, or growing a U.S.-based small business.” These one-hour mentoring sessions are held every other Tuesday from 1 to 5 p.m. at two branches of the Pasadena Public Library: the Lamanda Park Branch Library and the Santa Catalina Branch Library. Appointments can be conveniently reserved up to 14 days in advance, ensuring that individuals can schedule a time that best suits their needs. This recurring service underscores SCORE’s commitment to continuous support for the local business community, helping them to plan, launch, and grow successfully. Need to Know: The SCORE One-on-One Mentoring Session offers free business guidance. These one-hour appointments are available every other Tuesday from 1 to 5 p.m. at the Pasadena Public Library’s Lamanda Park Branch (140 S Altadena Drive, Pasadena, CA 91107) and Santa Catalina Branch (999 E Washington Blvd., Pasadena, CA 91104). The service is free. For more information or to book an appointment, visit [https://www.score.org/].
Scientists Revise Timeline For End Of The Universe, And It's Earlier Than Previously Estimated
The study is based on Hawking radiation introduced by Stephen Hawking.
FDA accepts previously rejected application for new PET imaging agent
The radiopharma firm hopes to soon begin selling Pixclara (Floretyrosine F 18), an investigational product for glioma, a type of brain cancer.
No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals early-onset Parkinson's disease diagnosis
No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals that he's been diagnosed with Parkinson's, one month before the band is set to reunite for their Las Vegas residency at the Sphere.
Who Had “New OS For The Z80” On Their 2026 Bingo Card?
Some might say the venerable Z80 doesn’t need another operating system, but [Scott Baker] obviously disagrees. He has come up with a brand new, from scratch OS called NostOS for the Z80-based…
China's K-pop worries: The reasons why a ban on Korean entertainment has lasted a decade
As mega K-pop group BTS returns to the stage after a hiatus of more than three years, one major market is conspicuously missing from its 12-month world tour: China. The omission of one of the group's biggest fan bases comes as no surprise. In fact, just the opposite would have…
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Apple Highlights Photos Shot on iPhone During NASA's Mission to Moon
As we previously reported, astronauts aboard NASA's Orion spacecraft used the iPhone 17 Pro Max to take selfies of themselves with the Earth in the background during the Artemis II mission around the far side of the Moon last week. Now that the crew members have safely returned to Earth, Apple's CEO Tim Cook and marketing chief Greg Joswiak have both turned to social media to congratulate them on their successful mission and highlight the iPhone's involvement.
Memorial Hermann and BCBSTX reach a new deal, restoring in-network coverage, hospital says
The Houston-based health system and the insurance giant had previously let an April 1 deadline pass without a new agreement, meaning many patients across the region were forced to pay higher medical costs or find new doctors.
Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
Putting on weight earlier in life may be more dangerous than previously thought. Researchers found that early adulthood obesity significantly raises the risk of premature death, especially from major diseases like heart disease and diabetes. The longer the body carries excess weight, the greater the damage appears to be. Interestingly, cancer risk in women didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting other biological factors are at play.
Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
Putting on weight earlier in life may be more dangerous than previously thought. Researchers found that early adulthood obesity significantly raises the risk of premature death, especially from major diseases like heart disease and diabetes. The longer the body carries excess weight, the greater the damage appears to be. Interestingly, cancer risk in women didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting other biological factors are at play.
These women had their breasts removed to thwart cancer. Then came the pain.
Many women are afflicted by post-mastectomy pain syndrome, which spans from uncomfortable to disabling and can last years. It’s inconsistently diagnosed and treated, leaving some women in agony as they hunt for relief and struggle to find doctors who take their pain seriously.
In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
Burned Before, Democrats Abruptly Revive the Idea of Impeaching Trump
Democrats in Congress have assiduously avoided talk of a third impeachment of President Trump, concerned that it would distract from their midterm campaign message. That tide seems to have turned.
Police: Employee seriously injured in fight at Danville business
DANVILLE, Ind. — Danville police responded to a fight at a business Friday that left an employee with “significant” head injuries. Officers with the Danville Metropolitan Police D…
The Sonic Paradox: Do we, in fact, gotta go fast?
The human mind simply can't process super-speed, but the game Haste does it better than the famously fast Sonic The Hedgehog games.
Opinion | With straight faces, GOP accuses regents of playing politics
Dave Zweifel: Rothman obviously did something deeply unpopular. The vote to sack him was unanimous, and getting 17 people to agree on anything is pretty rare these days.
China’s K-pop worries: The reasons why a ban on Korean entertainment has lasted a decade
BEIJING (AP) — As mega K-pop group BTS returns to the stage after a hiatus of more than three years, one major market is conspicuously missing from its 12-month world tour: China. The omission of o…
White House Warned Staff Not to Engage in Insider Trading Amid War With Iran
The directive came amid a surge of suspiciously well-timed trades on oil and prediction markets just ahead of crucial moments in the conflict.
Warhammer Survivors adds PS5, Xbox Series, Switch 2, and Switch versions
Survivors-like roguelite action game Warhammer Survivors will launch for PlayStation 5, Xbox Series, Switch 2, and Switch alongside its previously announced PC (Steam) version in 2026, developer Au…
Entertainment: Don’t Miss The ‘Longest Continuously Running Beer Festival in the United States’
Plus: Doggy Day at Deer District and Spoof Fest in Bay View.
The ‘oldest octopus’ in the world isn’t an octopus after all, scientists find
The story of a 300-million-year-old fossil has been rewritten after scientists discovered that it doesn’t actually belong to the world’s oldest octopus as previously thought.
CB&I Completes Acquisition of Petrofac Asset Solutions Business
/PRNewswire/ -- CB&I today announced the completion of an asset sale agreement, previously announced on December 24, 2025, to acquire Petrofac's Asset...
Scientists just found a hidden “drain” inside the human brain
A hidden waste-removal pathway in the brain has finally been caught in action. Using cutting-edge MRI scans, researchers discovered that fluid flows along the middle meningeal artery in a slow, lymphatic-like pattern—very different from blood. This confirms the presence of a previously unknown drainage hub in humans. The finding could transform how scientists approach brain aging, injury, and diseases like Alzheimer’s.
Virginia Democrats Go All-In on Gerrymandering (With Some Regrets)
They’re asking voters to ruthlessly gerrymander Virginia.
Max Verstappen's Red Bull engineer Gianpiero Lambiase set to join McLaren in 2028 in shock move having turned down Aston Martin
Max Verstappens engineer Gianpiero Lambiase is set to leave Red Bull and join McLaren in a shock move; Sky Sports News understands Lambiase will become head of race engineering at McLaren, having previously turned down an offer from Aston Martin
Real Madrid target reaches preliminary renewal agreement with current club
Real Madrid’s search for defensive reinforcements has taken another unexpected turn, with one of their previously monitored targets now looking increasingly out of reach. As the club continues to a...
Secretly Distribution acquires music data and analytics firms Entertainment Intelligence and Babel Ops
Babel Ops was founded in 2020 by Erik Gilbert and Greg Delaney, who previously co-founded Entertainment Intelligence in 2014.
Iran war spurs renewed Democratic calls for war powers resolution
Democratic Party leaders are renewing calls to curb President Donald Trump’s war powers, including one Democrat who previously voted against ending U.S. involvement in Iran.
Trump says U.S. will work with Iran to 'dig up' enriched uranium. Iran hasn't confirmed that
He previously said the U.S. would retrieve the deeply buried material, which is expected to be an intensive undertaking, if it struck an agreement with Iran.
Bicycle bell designed to defeat noise-cancelling headphones
Škoda's DuoBell is designed to be heard by people wearing high-end headphones, inexpensively blowing through active noise cancellation without being ridiculously loud or unnecessarily "smart." It's a "simple analog solution"…
'Health service misogyny left me in serious pain'
A woman from Hertford says the health service does not take women's gynaecological issues seriously.
Satechi’s 3-in-1 travel stand now wirelessly charges your phone at 25W
The upgraded version of Satechi’s folding multi-device charger gets a design update and support for Qi2.2.
UC Berkeley Haas climbs to No. 10 as the top public business school; evening & weekend MBA holds No. 1 ranking in U.S. News - Haas News
UC Berkeley Haas is the top-ranked public business school in U.S. News & World Report’s Best Business Schools 2026, with the Full-time MBA Program rising to No. 10, the MBA for Executives climbing to No. 4; and the Evening & Weekend MBA Program continuing its reign at No. 1. The Haas Undergraduate Program was previously ranked No. 3 in U.S. News' 2026 Best Undergraduate Business Programs, released last September.
Scientists map the brain’s hidden wiring using RNA barcodes in major breakthrough
Researchers have developed a cutting-edge technique that uses RNA “barcodes” to map how neurons connect, capturing thousands of links with single-synapse precision. The method transforms brain mapping into a sequencing task, making it faster and more scalable than traditional approaches. In mice, it revealed surprising new connections between brain cells that were previously unknown. This could open the door to earlier detection and targeted treatment of neurological diseases.
Scientists Develop New Technology to Continuously Monitor Geothermal Energy Operations
Custom sensor monitors seismicity for months straight more than a mile below ground.
Stanley Black & Decker Completes Sale of Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing Business to Howmet Aerospace
/PRNewswire/ -- Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE: SWK) today announced that it has completed the previously announced sale of its Consolidated Aerospace...
Burcum: In walking away from a tanning ban for minors, FDA misses a chance to prevent melanoma
"How seriously are we supposed to take Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the guy who’s supposed to be making America healthy again, when he’s abandoning an opportunity to prevent a common, potentially deadly cancer for generations to come?" columnist Jill Burcum writes.
On plant health and embracing new plant-breeding techniques in South Africa
The major challenge currently confronting South Africa’s agriculture is the spread of foot-and-mouth disease. For many farmers across the country, the most urgent tasks are both securing sufficient vaccines and rolling them out quickly in the coming months, particularly as the beef and dairy industries continue to suffer big losses. There is also pressure on sheep, goats, and other livestock to prevent the disease from spreading. As efforts to get the country through this monumental challenge continue, I believe it is important to sharpen our focus on the broader task at hand: strengthening biosecurity. This covers both animal and plant health. In recent years, we haven’t focused much on plant health, except a few times, such as when we had a goss’s wilt scare in the maize industry, a few cases of citrus black spot, or cases of sclerotinia in sunflower seeds. But the fact that South Africa managed to control the outbreaks of these particular diseases when they occurred a few years ago was due to organized agricultural and government scientific capabilities, and, most importantly, the availability of crop protection or agrochemicals necessary to address some of them. Therefore, as the animal health division in the Department of Agriculture focuses on the pressing challenge of the day, the foot-and-mouth disease, there is an opportunity for the plant health division to assess if they have all the requirements to tackle any outbreak that may occur on fruits, vegetables or crops in future. The challenge with crop diseases is that they can spread quickly and cause much more rapid damage in the field than we typically see with livestock. Therefore, speed is everything in ensuring the appropriate controls are available. I raise this as an important area, particularly given the drastic climate variation we observe across the country. The production conditions in some areas have changed noticeably over time, which may introduce new risks. The other essential part is ensuring that South Africa has access to the best crop protection technology available in the market. Many technology developers worldwide have operations in South Africa. Therefore, the Department of Agriculture, along with the Agricultural Research Council, must continuously interact with technology developers to assess the various crop protection technologies they are releasing globally and determine their suitability and need in South Africa. This will require a proactive approach from the government, unlike the current approach, in which technology developers typically approach regulators with new technologies. The government, recognising the food security risks, must take a proactive approach to ensure that South African farmers have access to the latest crop protection technologies, thereby safeguarding the country’s food security. Beyond crop protection, we must never forget that South Africa’s agriculture is key to ensuring that the country is the most food-secure country at the national level in sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa is also the only African country in the top-40 global agricultural exporters, having more than doubled since 1994 on the back of the adoption of high-yielding seed cultivars. South Africa has been the only African country to adopt a bold approach to embracing science and adopting genetically engineered seeds for grains and oilseeds in the early 2000s. Since then, we have seen crop yields improve noticeably, contributing to the gains we mentioned above. But ensuring that South Africa improves further is not a given. The key lies in South African regulators’ attitudes towards new technologies. We have to maintain a progressive approach and not give in to the politics of non-food and non-scientific voices that shout on the sidelines. Food security is national security, and the government must ensure we progress, leaning on science. Therefore, the registration of high-yielding new genomic techniques is required. South Africa cannot afford to fall behind the EU, the USA, South America, and many of its competitors in global agriculture. The Department of Agriculture’s crop science division must adopt a progress-and-science-embracing approach for the good of the country. Thanks for reading AgriView! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe Share
New study reveals hidden ocean chemistry
Findings reveal that nitrogen cycling in marine oxygen-deficient zones is far more dynamic than previously thought
New study reveals hidden ocean chemistry
Scientists have found a new way to detect subtle chemical signatures in seawater—revealing previously invisible details about the ocean’s chemistry from data continuously collected by thousands of autonomous robotic floats drifting across the seas.
One way to live longer: Win the genetic lottery
We may have less control over how long we live than previously thought.
Queens slashing suspects wanted for attacking man near sports bar in bloody assault
Detectives in Queens are looking for two men behind a violent, bloody slashing near a sports bar last month that left a man seriously wounded.
Apple CarPlay Just Got Three Popular iPhone Apps
Apple's CarPlay system for accessing iPhone apps on a vehicle's dashboard screen received three popular apps this week: ChatGPT, Google Meet, and Audiomack. CarPlay Ultra in an Aston Martin In addition, WhatsApp is beta testing a revamped CarPlay app that will improve upon the basic Siri-based functionality that was previously available. Make sure you have the latest version of each app and they will automatically appear on CarPlay.
Scientists discover hidden gut signals that could detect cancer early
A new study reveals that gut bacteria and metabolites may hold the key to detecting serious digestive diseases earlier and more easily. Using AI, scientists found that biomarkers linked to one condition can often predict others, showing these diseases are more interconnected than previously thought. This cross-disease insight could lead to faster diagnoses without invasive procedures.
Binge drinking just once a month may triple your risk of liver scarring
Many people think that occasional binge drinking is harmless if they otherwise drink in moderation, but new research suggests that assumption may be dangerously wrong. A large U.S. study found that people with metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), a condition affecting about one in three adults, face a much higher risk of serious liver scarring if they engage in heavy drinking even just once a month.