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Older workers are fighting ageism by starting their own businesses — and they’re outperforming younger entrepreneurs
A business founder at age 50 is almost twice as likely to experience success than someone in their 30s.
Musk denies WSJ report that SpaceX showed AI handset prototype before IPO
Elon Musk on Wednesday denied a Wall Street Journal report that SpaceX showed investors and other stakeholders a prototype of an AI-focused device ahead of its blockbuster IPO.
The PlayStation Stores On PlayStation 3 And Vita Are Shutting Down
Starting this year and into 2027, Sony is sunsetting the digital storefront for two of its oldest online store platforms.
America 250 road trip: A new mom discovers the oldest secret in sports
What makes a sport American? Fans leave clues at a Florida pickleball party, a Charleston crawfish-eating contest and Vince Lombardi's grave.
America 250 road trip: A new mom discovers the oldest secret in sports
What makes a sport American? Fans leave clues at a Florida pickleball party, a Charleston crawfish-eating contest and Vince Lombardi's grave.
America 250 road trip: A new mom discovers the oldest secret in sports
What makes a sport American? Fans leave clues at a Florida pickleball party, a Charleston crawfish-eating contest and Vince Lombardi's grave.
What older adults need to know before taking a GLP-1 medication to lose weight
Starting Wednesday, millions of Medicare-qualifying adults will have access to popular medications for weight loss at deep discounts through a temporary federal program called the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge.
Josh Hokit calls for UFC to cut Tom Aspinall
Heavyweight contender Josh Hokit took aim at champion Tom Aspinall over inactivity and wants the UFC to strip Aspinall of the heavyweight title and release him from the organization. He also continued to take shots at former two-division titleholder Alex Pereira. "This crybaby has lost all of his ...
Golden Knights & Silver Knights Announce Organizational Promotions & New Team Members
Vegas & Henderson personnel updates support continued growth across Foley Entertainment Group
Laredo Best Health Food: Golden Fit Meals earns honor
Golden Fit Meals was voted Laredo’s Best Health Food for its fresh prepared meals, nutrition guidance and new 24/7 gym.
Penguins trade Parker Wotherspoon after a breakout season in return for Vegas defenseman Kaedan Korczak
The Penguins made a surprising trade Tuesday, sending defenseman Parker Wotherspoon to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for defenseman Kaedan Korczak. Korczak,...
Report: Apple Watch Redesign Coming Next Year With New Band System
A "major overhaul" of the Apple Watch's design is due to arrive next year with a new system for connecting bands, according to a known Weibo leaker. In a set of recent posts, the leaker known as "Instant Digital" linked the new claim to older rumors about an "Apple Watch X" model, which was said to introduce a fresh design and break compatibility with the existing watch band system.
Is the world’s smallest Pepsi bottler also Oregon’s oldest business?
Adam Van Dusen opened a mercantile in Astoria in 1849. The sixth-generation of the family is still in business there today.
Kristaps Porzingis remains with Warriors on two-year deal
The Golden State Warriors have reached an agreement to retain former NBA champion Kristaps Porzingis.
Netherlands vs Morocco Quick Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Netherlands and Morocco in the 2026 FIFA World cup™. Announced by John Strong and Stu Holden.
Trump posts apparent AI-generated image of large, golden eagle affixed to Truman Balcony
President Donald Trump Monday evening posted what appeared to be an AI-generated image of a large, golden eagle affixed to the Truman Balcony of the White House.
Kristaps Porzingis reportedly reaches 2-year, $40 million extension to return to Warriors
Kristaps Porzingis was only dealt to Golden State ahead of the deadline last season.
Kristaps Porzingis will return to Golden State
Kristaps Porzingis will return to Golden State
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
[8-K] ALLIANCE ENTERTAINMENT HOLDING CORP Reports Material Event
Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation reports that majority stockholders delivered a written consent on June 24, 2026 approving a major charter change.
Better Business Bureau urges seniors to watch for scams as fraud losses quadruple since 2020
The Better Business Bureau is warning older adults to be more cautious.
LeBron Reportedly Issues 'Ultimatum' To Warriors Amid Free Agency Rumors
LeBron James has reportedly issued an "ultimatum" to the Golden State Warriors amid the ongoing free agency rumors. The four-time NBA champion forward is set to hit free agency this summer. LeBron is most likely to return to the Lakers, though another team could be inching closer and closer. The ...
Newsom's office touts Anthropic 'partnership,' 50% discount on Claude AI for California agencies, localities
Golden State Gov. Gavin Newsom's office indicated that state agencies and local governments may access Anthropic's Claude artificial intelligence platform at a 50% discount.
Communication key to supporting older adults' mental health
No matter your age, mental health is important to talk about as part of a healthy lifestyle.
T-Mobile phasing out older plans, moving customers to 5G offerings
T-Mobile is ending legacy wireless plans and auto-upgrading customers to newer, pricier options.
FAIR Health Price-Informed Tools Support Healthcare Decisions Among Diverse Older Adults
/PRNewswire/ -- Price-informed shared decision-making tools developed by FAIR Health, a national, independent nonprofit, can facilitate meaningful healthcare...
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Colorado's state primary
Democratic voters in Colorado will decide in a state primary which of two well-known statewide officeholders to nominate to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Jared Polis.
Comcast says it plans to split into two businesses, NBCUniversal and Sky
Current shareholders would receive shares in both companies under the planned split, Comcast said Monday.
Comcast Announces Plan To Split Tech And Media Businesses With NBCUniversal Spinoff
The company said it expects the split to be completed within a year, with Comcast’s shareholders owning shares in both companies.
Something Is Very Wrong with Modern Longevity Science
A new book argues that many of the world’s oldest people aren’t so old after all.
Polsinelli Expands Health Care M&A with Addition of New Shareholders
Polsinelli added Matthew S. Miller as a shareholder in the firm’s Nashville office and Muthuramanan “Ramana” Rameswaran as a shareholder in Dallas.
Jamie Foxx, Daughter Anelise's Duet During Kehlani's 2026 BET Awards Performance Will Warm Your Heart
Jamie Foxx and daughter Anelise Bishop, 17, played piano and guitar while Kehlani performed "Folded" at the 2026 BET Awards June 28 at Los Angeles' Peacock Theater.
We turned 80-year-olds into trained health monitors to save lives and boost senior dignity
As a career geriatrician, I’ve long known that some of society’s finest minds are being underappreciated while living in senior communities. So I helped to develop a new health program to help put older adults on the watch as health monitors.
Khalid Robinson takes next step as Warriors' head coach for NBA Summer League
As he enters his 11th season with the Warriors, Khalid Robinson is about to step into a new role as Golden State's NBA Summer League head coach
Brookline party store, Chinese restaurant both close after decades in business
Golden Temple was open to Brookline residents for 66 years, while Party Favors was in business for 35 years.
Warriors reportedly interested in three NBA free agents as LeBron decision looms
The Golden State Warriors reportedly have their eye on several players ahead of NBA free agency.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Entertainment Firms Face AI Copyright Uncertainty
Editorial analysis: For AI and ML practitioners, unclear copyright rules raise the legal risk and compliance cost of using generative models in production content pipelines. According to The Economic Times, Indian entertainment firms are investing heavily in AI for content creation, but current copyright law, which is tied to human creativity, may not clearly protect AI-assisted or AI-generated works. The Economic Times reports lawyers warn that, without specific legislation or case law, such works face risks of duplication and misuse, complicating licensing, attribution, and monetization for studios and creators. The article highlights that creators and rights holders in India currently have limited legal recourse under existing statutes, per The Economic Times.
Rise in cancer in younger adults may be explained by faster 'biological aging,' early study hints
Researchers report that younger adults with older‑than‑expected biological ages are more likely to develop early‑onset lung, gastrointestinal and uterine cancers, but more research is needed.
Only one workout helped older adults lose fat without losing muscle
A six-month study of more than 120 adults in their 70s found that high-intensity interval training (HIIT) may offer a key advantage over other forms of exercise: it helped reduce body fat while preserving valuable muscle mass. While moderate and low-intensity workouts also led to some fat loss, only HIIT maintained lean muscle, which becomes increasingly important with age.
Only one workout helped older adults lose fat without losing muscle
A six-month study of more than 120 adults in their 70s found that high-intensity interval training (HIIT) may offer a key advantage over other forms of exercise: it helped reduce body fat while preserving valuable muscle mass. While moderate and low-intensity workouts also led to some fat loss, only HIIT maintained lean muscle, which becomes increasingly important with age.
What watching a sunset can do for your brain
Humans appear to see sunrises and sunsets "almost like bookends". Here's what a daily dose of golden hour can do for our memory, sleep and mood.
PHOTOS | Multitude enjoy aerial entertainment at resurgent Texarkana Airshow
Sgt. 1st Class Benjamin Hall, assistant team leader, watches the ground to help the Golden Knights line up with their jump mark at the Texarkana Airshow on Saturday at Texarkana Regional Airport. Throngs of people lined a taxiway at the airport to watch the Army parachute team and other aerial entertainment. It was the first airshow in the city in nearly 30 years. See Monday's edition for extended coverage.
Colombia vs Portugal Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Colombia and Portugal in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by John Strong and Stu Holden.
The new kings of the news business are in your inbox
Ryan Broderick has watched digital media companies flame out – beholden to a single source of funding or a fickle algorithm.
Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) A Bargain Following Its Sharp Pullback?
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading left the stock down about 9% over the past month and about 11% over the past 3 months, which has sharpened the focus on its current valuation. See our latest analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group. At a recent share price of $8.39, Tencent Music Entertainment Group has posted a year to date share price decline of about 53% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of about 55%. However, the 3...
Mountain lions changed everything in this tiny California preserve
A surprising ecological makeover unfolded when mountain lions began frequenting a small preserve south of San Francisco. Deer activity dropped, plants recovered, and shifts among predators like coyotes, bobcats, and foxes followed. The study shows that powerful “trophic cascades” aren’t limited to remote wilderness—they can happen in small, suburban preserves too.
The 10 highest-rated Georgia Bulldogs in College Football 27
Georgia earns an 87 overall rating in College Football 27 with safety KJ Bolden leading the roster. Gunner Stockton appears not to be in the game
Rangers Land 37-Goal Star In Blockbuster Trade With Vegas
The New York Rangers have added a new star forward to their roster.According to TSN’s Darren Dreger, the Rangers have acquired forward Pavel Dorofeyev from the Vegas Golden Knights.Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman later added that the Rangers are sending the 26th pick of the 2026 Entry Draft, the 92nd pick of this year’s draft, and their […] The post Rangers Land 37-Goal Star In Blockbuster Trade With Vegas appeared first on HEAVY.
Dell shareholders approve legal move from Delaware to Texas
Michael Dell says Texas is where the company has always belonged as shareholders overwhelmingly approve the reincorporation move from Delaware.
Civility advocates look for ways to restore 'Iowa Nice' to campaigns, public discourse
A group of former and current officeholders are looking to encourage civility by encouraging civic participation and civil interactions.
Medicare will soon offer some older Oregonians weight loss drugs for $50 a month. Here’s how it works.
Medicare has long excluded coverage of GLP-1s prescribed solely for weight loss.
Is AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Undervalued Or Is Its Recent Rally Already Priced In?
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) is under renewed scrutiny as investors weigh its recent share price swings and ongoing losses against reported revenue of $5,031.8 million and a market value of about $1.5 billion. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. At a share price of $1.89, AMC Entertainment Holdings has seen sharp swings, with a 7 day share price return down 33.22% but a 90 day share price return up 99.33%. The 1 year total shareholder return is down 37.42%, indicating...
Corus Entertainment reports $36.5M Q3 loss, revenue down 26 per cent from year ago
TORONTO — Corus Entertainment Inc. reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of $36.5 million in its latest quarter as the company behind Global Television saw its revenue fall 16 per cent compared with a year ago.
Framework lowers Laptop 13 Pro prices in response to Apple’s Mac price hikes
Framework has lowered some Laptop 13 Pro prices after switching to ADATA Gen 5 SSDs. Existing pre-orders with older Gen 5 SSD options will also be updated.
Chairman Guthrie, Health Vice Chair Harshbarger, Congresswoman Miller-Meeks Lead Site Visit to Iowa Hospitals to Highlight Benefits of the Rural Health Transformation Program
The Committee on Energy and Commerce is the oldest standing legislative committee in the U.S. House of Representatives and is vested with the broadest jurisdiction of any congressional authorizing committee.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
Trump Mobile Takes The T1 Phone Reservation Holders For A Ride, Opens Sales To The Public Without Clearing The Backlog
Those who paid Trump Mobile a $100 deposit to gain early access to the T1 Phone suddenly find themselves at the back of the proverbial queue.
Türkiye vs United States Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Türkiye and United States in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by John Strong and Stu Holden.
Ann Blyth, Oscar-nominated 'Mildred Pierce' actress, dies at 98
Ann Blyth, Golden Age Hollywood star and Oscar-nominated 'Mildred Pierce' actress, has died at 98.
Golden State Valkyries employee named in Sports Business Journal's Forty under 40 list
The Golden State Valkyries have created a winning culture on and off the court. After making WNBA history last season becoming the first expansion team to reach the playoffs, the success is also extending throughout the organization.
Jimmy Butler shares ACL rehab update, expectations for Warriors next season
Jimmy Butler shared an encouraging update on his ACL injury rehab and his expectations for the Golden State Warriors in the 2026-27 NBA season.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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Will one of these 3 win the golden boot?
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