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Heating up for health: Researcher weighs in on the science behind saunas and hot tubs
Heat therapy is hot right now. Saunas are popping up in more backyards and fitness centers. And heat is part of the constant conversation around optimizing health and wellness. But the idea of leveraging ...
Heating up for health: Researcher weighs in on the science behind saunas and hot tubs
Heat therapy is hot right now. Saunas are popping up in more backyards and fitness centers. And heat is part of the constant conversation around optimizing health and wellness. But the idea of leveraging ...
CBS Sports Network to Broadcast Navy vs. Loyola Game Friday Night Under the Lights
After spending the last two weekends on the road, Navy (7-6, 3-4 Patriot League) returns home to play host to Loyola (8-5, 5-2 Patriot League) on Friday evening in its regular-season finale. Faceoff is slated for 7:06 pm at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium and the game is presented by First Command. Navy is led by Joe Amplo, who has put together a 50-39 record in his 7 seasons at the helm of the Mids' program, while Loyola's Charley Toomey has posted a 195-117 record in 21 seasons as the Greyhounds' head coach. The contest marks the 22nd meeting in a series that dates back to 1939. Friday's contest will be televised by CBS Sports Network with Chris Lewis and Evan Washburn calling the action. Additionally, the game will be carried live on 1430 WNAV with Joe Miller on the call. Radio coverage begins at 6:45 pm with the Navy Lacrosse Pregame Show. Live stats will also be available on NavySports.com(.)
Spirit bailout idea fuels fears about government, business
The U.S. could end up owning 90% of the struggling budget airline in a potential deal under discussion. Experts warn it would set a dangerous precedent.
Here's How the iPhone Ultra Compares to Other Apple Devices
With dummy models of Apple's rumored foldable iPhone now circulating, YouTube channel Max Tech's Vadim Yuryev has shared images and video of the book-style form factor compared to existing Apple devices, giving us a better idea of what to expect when it launches later this year. The foldable iPhone's inner display is said to have a 4:3 aspect ratio like an iPad, and it will have an iPad mini-sized OLED display when it's opened up.
Eurozone business activity falls on Mideast war
Business activity in the eurozone contracted for the first time in 16 months in April, as the war in the Middle East drove energy prices up and disrupted global supply
College football’s new idea: Make a long season even longer. Make it make sense
College Football Inc. finally found a change it could enact without getting sued. The FBS oversight committee wants to make the season longer.
"Worst patch ever:" World of Warcraft players beg Blizzard to slow down on its updates — for all the wrong reasons
I recently alluded to this idea that World of Warcraft is losing control of its quality ... well, control. And this concept really came to ahead this week with Midnight's 12.0.5 patch, which introduced a mountain of new bugs.
Business contest ends in sweet smell of success for SCH students
Two Springside Chestnut Hill Academy students were among the top winners recently in a pitch competition to identify new business ideas from high school entrepreneurs.
Cognitive Science student building a platform to help stroke patients
Initially motivated by a stroke in her family, Cognitive Science student Tvisha Nepani wanted to improve health outcomes for stroke patients. She developed the idea for a remote AI-powered physical
'The Idea Is Not Dead' - Xbox Boss Explains Why She's Still Keen On A Mobile Store
It seemed to have been killed off, but apparently not!
Opinion: Three ideas for how Chicago should handle stadium deals
Chicago faces major stadium decisions. UChicago grad students offer policy ideas to guide public investment and team partnerships.
CBL Scholars Program Opens Pathways to Business Law Careers - UC Law San Francisco (Formerly UC Hastings)
First-year law students and 2026 CBL Scholars Deniz Masjedi, Alvaro Flores, and Tavia Pappaly gain mentorship connections with leading industry professionals as they prepare for careers in business law. Created by the UC Center for Business Law San Francisco (CBL), the CBL Scholars Program aims to develop the next generation of business law leaders, supported by contributions from individuals and corporate sponsors. The highly competitive program provides funding along with academic and professional mentorship to students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Scholars gain exposure to the Bay Area’s technology and venture capital ecosystems and access to UC Law SF’s broad network of senior legal professionals. Now in its sixth year, the CBL Scholars Program provides a scholarship and academic and professional mentorship to students entering the business law community from disadvantaged educational, economic, social, or physical backgrounds. The program is generously sponsored by the law firms Gunderson Dettmer and Goodwin Procter. Meet this year’s CBL Scholars: Deniz Masjedi, Alvaro Flores, and Tavia Pappaly. All three have secured summer associate positions at prestigious law firms. Deniz Masjedi: A Passion for Helping Founders Grow Companies Deniz Masjedi, who was born in Iran and moved to Southern California as a teenager, traces her interest in law to her family’s immigration journey and her desire to advocate for herself and her family. She earned a bachelor’s degree at UC Berkeley, where she studied political science and sociology. At UC Law SF, she serves as a 1L representative for the Iranian Law Students Association and is active in the Business Law Society and Technology & Law Society. Next fall, she will serve as director of mentorship for the Technology & Law Society and director of professional development for the Business Law Society. She will join Sidley Austin this year as a 1L/2L summer associate. Q: What draws you to business law? A: Prior to law school, I worked in Cooley LLP’s Private Companies practice group as a corporate paralegal for three years, supporting over 100 venture-backed startups and venture capital funds. I found purpose in helping founders transform their vision into successful companies. It was incredibly rewarding being part of their journeys—from company formation and initial financing to major transactions such as M&A deals. What excites me most about this field is the potential for a small, innovative company to become the next Google or Zoom, shaping how people communicate and access information. I hope to continue supporting entrepreneurs and investors as a corporate attorney. Q: What does it mean to you to have been awarded this scholarship? A: As the first person in my family to attend law school in the United States, receiving this scholarship is a tremendous honor. My parents and I left everything behind so that I could enjoy the freedom to practice my religion without persecution and pursue a career in law as a woman. This award is an acknowledgment of my dedication to business law and motivates me to continue pursuing excellence in this field. It also recognizes years of hard work—learning a new language, navigating the college and law school application process, and ultimately building a career in the legal profession. Q: How will this scholarship help support your future goals? A: This scholarship will provide access to mentorship from leaders in the field, enabling me to develop the skills necessary to offer practical advice and effective representation to future clients. It also eases the financial burden of law school, letting me focus on my coursework and deepen my commitment to corporate law. As an immigrant, breaking into the legal profession has not always been easy, and the time that mentors have invested in me has been instrumental to my progress. This scholarship will allow me to continue building those relationships while positioning me to one day mentor others pursuing similar paths. Alvaro Flores: Inspired by Entrepreneurs The son of Mexican immigrants raised in San Antonio, Texas, Alvaro Flores says he has long been interested in how policy, markets, and culture shape society. He studied international relations and global economy at the University of Southern California, with minors in business finance and legal studies. His experiences span local political organizing, venture capital and startup work, and teaching entrepreneurship. At UC Law SF, he is involved in the Business Law Society, Technology & Law Society, and the Latinx Law Student Association. He will join Perkins Coie as a 1L/2L summer associate with the firm’s Emerging Companies & Venture Capital practice. Q: What draws you to business law? A: I’m drawn to stories of entrepreneurs whose simple ideas become companies that shape the economy and society. Spending time in venture capital and working directly with founders has shown me that many important decisions in the scaling process are ultimately legal ones, particularly how companies are structured and how capital is raised. Business law sits at the intersection of innovation and equity. It offers a way to stay close to the pace of technological change while also helping expand who gets to participate in it. There is something special about being part of that process here in the Bay Area, where the American Dream feels like it is reimagined in real time. Q: What does it mean to you to have been awarded this scholarship? A: I am truly grateful for the support and belief this scholarship represents. I see it not just as recognition, but also as alignment. The CBL Scholars Program’s focus on developing individuals who engage deeply with the business and technology ecosystem reflects the path I have been intentionally building. More than anything, it feels like an investment in that journey. I have been thoughtful about each next step–whether teaching, working in venture capital, or building multidisciplinary experiences–and this scholarship reinforces that those efforts come together in a meaningful way. Q: How will this scholarship help support your future goals? A: It allows me to focus more on developing as a business lawyer, without the distraction of financial constraints. Beyond that, the mentorship and access to the Bay Area network are just as valuable. I’m especially interested in working with early-stage companies and investors, so the opportunity to learn directly from people operating at a high level in that space is huge. Tavia Pappaly: Working in the Wine Industry Sparked Interest in Business and Law Tavia Pappaly spent five years in the wine industry before deciding to pursue law school with a goal of becoming a corporate transactions attorney. Pappaly says she wants to use her legal skills to help business grow and thrive. A first-generation law student from Fairfield, California, she is a member of the Legal Education Opportunity Program (LEOP) and will serve as vice president of social planning for the UC Law SF Sports Law Society in her 2L year. She plans to work as a summer associate at Gibson Dunn in San Francisco after her 2L year. Q: What draws you to business law? A: Business law brings together many of my interests and personal experiences. As the daughter of immigrants who grew up around a family-owned small business, I saw firsthand both the opportunities and challenges of building something from the ground up. That perspective, combined with my experience in the wine industry, solidified my interest in helping businesses of all sizes tackle evolving legal challenges. I’m excited to grow within the corporate law space and develop the skills and experience to support businesses at every stage. I’m deeply motivated to give back to immigrant communities and small business owners, whose experiences often intersect. By building a strong foundation in corporate law, I hope to support those working to create generational stability and to contribute in a meaningful way to the communities that have shaped me. Q: What does it mean to you to have been awarded this scholarship? A: Receiving this scholarship is incredibly meaningful to me. I take great pride in my background as a first-generation student and a woman of color, so being recognized for my potential in a field that has historically underrepresented those communities is both affirming and empowering. This program will help connect me to the resources and committed mentors that will help me succeed. Beyond that, it is no secret that law school is a significant financial commitment. This scholarship helps ease both the financial burden and the stress that comes with it, allowing me to focus more on my education and long-term goals. I am incredibly grateful! Q: How will this scholarship help support your future goals? A: This scholarship has already connected me with an incredible network of faculty, business law professionals, and like-minded students. The community fostered by the Center for Business Law is deeply supportive, and I’m excited to grow alongside my cohort. I truly believe this network will play an important role in helping me thrive in law school and position me for success in business law. As I have seen firsthand how impactful both financial scholarship and mentorship are, I hope to give back in this same way later in my career.
2026 NFL Draft: Every team's most ideal pick in Round 1
Here's the player each team would like to select in the first round to address biggest need
From Ideas to Solutions: NAVAIR Invites Small Businesses into the Fold
The NAVAIR Small Business Innovation Research/Small Business Technology Transfer Programs (SBIR/SBTT) group Wednesday finished up NAVAIR panel presentations at this year’s Sea-Air-Space Exposition 2026 at the National Harbor, Maryland.
Worst-run state? In Britain, Steve Hilton was inspired by California
Steve Hilton's sudden rise in California politics comes a decade and a half after he pitched the U.K. Conservative Party with a very different idea: Britain could learn a lot from the Golden State.
Candidates pitch economic ideas, youth retention at ‘Voting For Business’ forum
WHEELING — Local candidates seeking seats in the West Virginia Legislature provided their thoughts Thursday night on how best to attract jobs to the Mountain State while also providing opportunities for youth to remain in the state. The Wheeling Area Chamber of Commerce, along with Regional Economic Development (RED) and WTOV-TV, sponsored the “Voting For […]
Special edition: POLITICO Health Care Summit highlights
Republicans and Democrats agree: Soaring health care costs will be a pivotal issue in the midterms. But they have very different ideas on what to do about it.
'The Handyman of West Texas' Optioned by The Hideaway Entertainment
Johnathan Walton's true-crime podcast 'The Handyman of West Texas' will be developed for the screen by The Hideaway Entertainment.
The Hideaway Entertainment Options Johnathan Walton’s True-Crime Podcast ‘The Handyman of West Texas’
Johnathan Walton Media has struck a deal with The Hideaway Entertainment to develop his latest true-crime podcast, “The Handyman of West Texas,” for the screen. Walton is a popular true-crime podcast ...
Global health forward: Navigating scarcity in a fractured world through solidarity, equity, and shared responsibility
At the 2026 Global Health Symposium, hosted by the Harvard Global Health Institute (HGHI) on April 16, policymakers, practitioners, academics, and students gathered around a central idea: achieving global health equity in an age of scarcity requires moving from fragmented systems to shared responsibility.
Billy Donovan leaving Bulls after front office change, stepping away after six seasons as head coach
After firing Artūras Karnišovas and GM Marc Eversley in a major reorganization, Chicago wanted to keep Donovan around — but the veteran head coach had a different idea.
OpenAI teases next AI announcement coming today, here's what to expect
OpenAI has teased its next AI software product announcement happening later today. The teaser gives us a good idea of...
The Business Model Podcast: From Idea to Business
Anybody can have a good idea. It’s taking the next step that gives people more trouble. On this Founder Group Chat, we have three founders who have turned
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Students pitch business ideas at ‘Shark Bite’ competition
Caddo Kiowa Technology Center wraps up first-year entrepreneurship program modeled after Shark Tank.
Two-sun planets keep disappearing: Here’s why scientists point to Einstein
Science News: The idea of a planet orbiting two suns has long captured both scientific curiosity and public imagination. Popularised by science fiction, such worlds.
Opinion | The University of Minnesota’s vision for health care is flawed
"Based on our years of experience with the U and its health sciences, we would argue that moving the clinical practice of the university’s medical school back inside the university is a bad idea," the authors write.
Shirley in Top Four for Arthur Ashe Jr. Sports Scholars Award - NC State University Athletics
Defensive tackle Isaiah Shirley continues to move up in the selection process for the 2026 Arthur Ashe Jr Sports Scholars Award.
Join Healthy Kids Here in Celebration of Every Kid Healthy Week™
IDEA Public Schools’ Healthy Kids Here program is a proud partner of Every Kid Healthy Week™, an annual national celebration led by Action for Healthy Kids, observed this year during April 20-24, 2026. […]
Campus Politics in City Hall: The Civic Culture We Tolerated in Universities Is Now Shaping How Cities Are Governed.
New York does not need less debate. It needs a restoration of civic norms. The question is no longer what we tolerate on campus. It is what we are willing to accept from the people who govern us.
How long will high gas prices last? Trump’s team doesn’t seem to have any idea
The domestic politics of the Iran war can mostly be summed up by two words right now: gas prices.
High Runner’s High: Marijuana and running in joint use across North Ashland
Running and cannabis use have several similarities. They both challenge a person’s lung capacity, they both generally result in an increased appetite, and they can both be enjoyed indoors or outside. Despite the overlap, the idea to participate in both simultaneously as a community is a relatively new concept. Chicago natives Anakaren Ramirez and Carlos...
This Alien Solar System Doesn’t Follow the Rules – and Scientists Are Intrigued
The LHS 1903 system defies expectations with a rocky outer planet, prompting new ideas about how planets form and evolve.
I turned bowling into a million-dollar career
Jason Belmonte says his parents opened a bowling center after a rainy day idea, setting him on a path to become a pro.
Review | ‘You, Me & Tuscany’ is a fresh spin on old ideas
The film is setting a new standard for new-age rom-coms.
UK's M&C Saatchi warns Mideast war could hit sport and entertainment business
British advertising group M&C Saatchi warned on Monday that the Middle East conflict is likely to significantly impact its sport, entertainment and consumer-facing business, while forecasting 2026 operating profit in line with market expectations.
UK's M&C Saatchi warns Mideast war could hit sport and entertainment business
British advertising group M&C Saatchi warned on Monday that the Middle East conflict is likely to significantly impact its sport, entertainment and consumer-facing business, while forecasting 2026 operating profit in line with market expectations.
Game #21 GameThread: Jays @ Diamondbacks
Game three of three with the Diamondbacks. I’m putting the GameThreads together before leaving on holiday, which seemed like a better idea before I started doing it. Normally, a GameThread is pretty quick and easy, but when you are doing 20-some in a row, it loses some of the fun. Thankfully, I’m near the end. […]
Bloom Where You’re Planted event helps families grow food, boost health in underserved area
Families looking for fresh ideas to stretch their grocery budget and eat a little healthier found plenty to dig into earlier today at a free community event cen
Baseball Falls in Series Finale at Jax State
JACKSONVILLE, Ala. – FIU's baseball program fell 7-2 to Jacksonville State in the series finale Sunday afternoon at Rudy Abbott Field at Jim Case Stadium in Conference USA (CUSA) play.
Top safety dubbed ideal pick for Bears in 1st round of 2026 NFL Draft
Bleacher Report dubbed this playmaking defender as an ideal pick for the Chicago Bears in the 2026 NFL Draft.
10 Things In Your Bedroom You Should Toss Today
From bookshelves and overly-cluttered dressers to lighting and furniture sets, these are the things Southern designers say it’s time to retire or replace in the bedroom for a place of calm and rest.
Curing U.S. Health Care, Part I
In 2008, much to their own surprise, leading Democrats unified around a program of major health care reform. Policy wonks had spent years developing the concepts behind what eventually became Obamacare; big Democratic victories in the 2006 midterms and the prospect of controlling both Congress and the presidency made it possible to imagine turning those ideas into reality. During the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama advocated similar plans, based on those ideas, for expanding insurance coverage. And it happened! The Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010. When it was fully implemented in 2014, millions of Americans got health insurance: Impressive as the raw numbers are, they don’t tell the whole story. Before the ACA, even upper-middle-class Americans often found it impossible to get health insurance if they had pre-existing medical conditions. Many Americans were trapped in jobs they wanted to leave but couldn’t for fear of losing their employment-based coverage. Meanwhile, dire predictions from the usual suspects about runaway costs proved wrong. In fact, overall U.S. medical spending has grown much more slowly since the ACA was enacted than before. But the U.S., alone among advanced nations, still falls far short of providing universal health care. As you can see from the chart above, 8 percent of the population was still uninsured in 2024, a number that is set to rise over the next two years as a result of Republican policies. True, many of the uninsured in 2024 were undocumented immigrants, who we don’t try to cover. But there are still a lot of uninsured. Moreover, a significant number of Americans who have health insurance are in fact underinsured. As a result, they are at risk of incurring devastating healthcare costs and are sometimes forced to forgo needed care. This number is set to rise sharply in the next two years as a result of Republican policies adopted under Donald Trump. And not only is the U.S. unique among advanced countries in its under-provision of health care coverage, it also incurs by far the world’s highest healthcare costs per capita. So now may well be a good time to get behind a new push for major health reform — an effort, if you like, to finish the job begun under Obama. Today’s primer is devoted to the economics of health reform. During his failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Donald Trump famously complained, “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.” Actually, we did know — and it’s not that complicated. Health economists understand the principles very well. And because health policy varies greatly among advanced nations, we know a lot about what works and what doesn’t. This will be the first in a series about health reform. Beyond the paywall I’ll address the following: 1. Why markets can’t be trusted to deliver healthcare 2. Routes to universal healthcare 3. What works? In a follow-up post I’ll discuss the pros and cons of different approaches, and possible paths forward for the United States.
3 trade-up targets for Steelers in 2026 NFL Draft
These three players are ideal trade-up targets for the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Sugg Inducted into Chesterfield Sports Hall of Fame - University of Richmond Athletics
Chesterfield, Va.— University of Richmond Deputy Athletics Director LaRee Sugg was one of four individuals inducted into the Chesterfield County Sports Hall ...
Eastern Michigan To Add Women’s Flag Football In 2027
Eastern Michigan University announced today, April 16, the addition of women's flag football as an intercollegiate varsity sport, expanding its commitment to growth and opportunity within the Department of Athletics. The announcement follows the NCAA's January 2026 designation of women's flag football as an Emerging Sport for Women.
Samuel Tremblay named Outstanding Graduating International Student for the Maine Business School
ORONO, Maine -- Samuel Tremblay of Quebec City is the Outstanding Graduating International Student for the Maine Business School. A business administration student majoring in management, Tremblay is a tutor, mentor, Maine Business School ambassador and president of the UMaine chapter of the Beta Gamma Sigma honor society.
What New Graduates Need To Know Before Starting A Business
Each year, college graduates leave with ideas about what they want to build, but they often do not know how to begin.
Earth Day marks grand opening of new, dedicated space for WMU’s IDEAS Collaboratory | News
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Super-agers have healthy cognitive function
I just read about people who are called super-agers and how they don't have the memory problems that happen when you get older. Supposedly they have more brain cells. Do you know if that's true? The idea of super-agers is really interesting, and I want to know more.
Review: Three books on the confusing, complex world of American politics
Three authors explore the American political landscape and offer provocative ideas on how to fix it—and if it is worth saving.
The NCAA idea that could reshape college sports: 'It's not a tweak, it's a structural shift'
NCAA’s five-year eligibility bet: Simpler rules, cleaner rosters, new tradeoffs. USA TODAY Sports canvassed college sports stakeholders on proposal.
UNC Hussman offers new sports play-by-play class | UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media
This story, written by UNC Hussman alumna Caroline Daly ’24, was originally published on unc.edu. The UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media has a new, hands-on class available for students interested in sports careers. Students in “MEJO 390: Sports Commentary and Play-By-Play” can call live radio broadcasts for Carolina sporting events, streamed live on the Go Heels website. This spring, 11 students are calling mostly softball games to gain experience and learn the preparation needed for a successful broadcast. The class is capped at a small number to provide consistent, individual feedback. Matt Krause, the radio voice of Carolina women’s basketball, teaches the class to help students sharpen their skills, using his experience with the Tar Heels and calling games for ACC Network and ACC Network Extra. “There is no substitute for live reps, and that is the only way you get better. The classroom component teaches you how to get better, but going about that requires sitting in that chair, making mistakes and being able to know your broadcast is going somewhere,” Krause said. “These students are doing real live games, and they will have tape where if they want to pursue this. They will have ready-made demos to send for jobs. Being able to utilize all the resources of UNC, GoHeels Productions and the Carolina Athletics brand and create these opportunities for students is really impactful.” In the class, students learn fundamentals like how to announce starting lineups for different sports and how to conduct research before games. Krause has led the class in mock preparation exercises, looking at game charts with information about the different teams and players that they can refer to at pivotal moments during the game. Krause and the students then critique each other, listening to clips from the past week to find ways to improve. It’s a rare class without a slew of quizzes or assignments. Their main tasks are calling games and making a portfolio or demo reel of their best calls at the end of the semester, all with the goal of being ready to step into similar roles after graduation. Laible live streams her coverage on the GoHeels website. Calling a live game while broadcasting her coverage allows her to get hands on experience. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Junior Anna Laible ’27 wished for a class just like this. Her first year at Carolina, she interned with the Coastal Plain League, where she was introduced to play-by-play for baseball. “I enjoy the challenge and uncertainty of each game being different because each sport looks a little different,” said Laible. “Each game is different — not just with teams but what could happen with certain records being broken or random trends. That’s what I enjoy most.” She wanted more opportunities for reps during college to prepare for a career after Carolina, so she pitched an idea for the class to Livis Freeman ’99, distinguished associate professor of sports communication. Laible and Freeman reached out to GoHeels Productions for a partnership and then connected with Krause. “This is how at UNC Hussman we separate ourselves: Our students go into the field ready,” said Freeman. “The biggest compliment we get it is when our students start their careers, they don’t need any hand-holding.” Laible calls a Carolina softball game at Kessing Stadium – after pitching the idea to Hussman faculty. Her interest in sports commentary allowed her to apply her interest as she attends Carolina. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Laible is now a student in the class, which has helped her strengthen her skills and deepen her passion for the field. The goal is to expand to other sports like soccer, lacrosse and field hockey. “The hands-on experience I’ve gotten here is invaluable. I’ve loved the classes and professors because they’ve taught me a lot, but it’s also the things outside of class, too, that have helped me grow,” said Laible. “Since being at UNC, I’ve grown a lot in the versatility, from doing writing to production and commentating. UNC Hussman and Carolina have given me the ability to be strong and well rounded.”
The making of modern science
Any history of the West's scientific revolution must explain how science generates new discoveries and ways of thinking about the natural world. Social-constructivist approaches have failed to provide a convincing account.
Former Southeast Missouri Softball Coach Lana Richmond and Sports Information Director Ron Hines Elected to OVC Hall of Fame
BRENTWOOD, Tenn. – Former Southeast Missouri sports information director Ron Hines (posthumously) and softball coach Lana Richmond and former UT Martin tennis coach Dennis Taylor have been elected to the Ohio Valley Conference Hall of Fame.
Iowa State Adds Women's Wrestling As 18th Varsity Program
AMES, Iowa - Women's wrestling will debut as Iowa State University's 18 th intercollegiate athletics program during the 2027-28 academic year, Endowed Cyclon...
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Gina Procaccio to be Inducted to the Philadelphia Sports Hall of Fame
PHILADELPHIA—Villanova women's track & field and cross country head coach Gina Procaccio earned a top honor on Thursday morning when she was announced as part of the 23rd inductee class to the Philadelphia Sports Hall of Fame. Procaccio will be recognized along with other top athletes, coaches, contributors, and teams whose legacies have shaped the rich history of Philadelphia sports when the 2026 Inductee Class is celebrated on Thursday, November 5, 2026, at Live! Casino & Hotel Event Center. The public is invited to join in honoring these remarkable individuals and teams.
Brown Athletics and Recreation Becomes Enterprise Member of Women Leaders in Sports
PROVIDENCE, R.I. - Brown University's Division of Athletics and Recreation will become an Enterprise Member of Women Leaders in Sports, Mencoff Vice Presiden...
Microsoft has a new idea on how to deter students from MacBook Neo
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NCCU’s Rodrigo Alves Named Arthur Ashe Jr. Sports Scholar Finalist
FAIRFAX, Va. – Rodrigo Alves of the North Carolina Central men's tennis team has been named a finalist for the 2026 Arthur Ashe Jr. Male Sports Scholar of the Year, as announced by the EDU Ledger. A special edition highlighting the honorees will be published this summer.
Shirley Named Arthur Ashe Jr. Sports Scholars Finalist - NC State University Athletics
Wolfpack defensive tackle Isaiah Shirley has been named one of the 10 male finalists for the 2026 Arthur Ashe Jr. Sports Scholar Award. The redshirt junior w...
Taute and Cooch Named to College Sports Communicators Academic All-America® Teams
Juniors Ada Taute and Abby Cooch of the Denison University women's basketball National Championship team have been named as Second and Third-Team Academic All-America® as selected by College Sports Communicators for the 2025-26 season.
Cubans self-medicate as crisis takes toll on mental health: ‘There is no idea to hold on to’
Many people are turning to prescription drugs – and some to herbal remedies and even hard drugs – amid an outlook that feels bleaker than the collapse of the Soviet Union
My Brother Found Himself a Gold Digger. She Has the Wrong Idea About Me.
She can consider this a permanent embargo.
See Microsoft's rise from garage idea to tech giant in 50 years
Fifty years after Bill Gates and Paul Allen gambled on a piece of software, Microsoft has become something bigger than a brand. It runs business, lives.
At HCA Healthcare, small ideas go big in fight to stop overdoses
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Bryan Johnson's advice to founders: Don't neglect relationships
At Business Insider's The Long Play event, Bryan Johnson pushed back on the idea that a sex life distracts founders.
Bryan Johnson's advice to founders: Don't neglect relationships
At Business Insider's The Long Play event, Bryan Johnson pushed back on the idea that a sex life distracts founders.
Scientists just solved a 160-million-year fossil mystery “I’ve never seen anything like it”
A rare fossil discovery is shedding light on the “missing years” of early sponge evolution. Scientists found a 550-million-year-old sponge that likely lacked hard skeletal parts, explaining why earlier fossils are so scarce. This supports the idea that the earliest sponges were soft-bodied and rarely preserved. The finding changes how researchers hunt for the origins of animal life.
Opinion: Utah’s volatile inner-party politics
Turmoil in the Mideast and the nation’s economy are intensifying fissures between parties and within them. What does this mean for Utah politics?
Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins Named College Sports Communicators Academic All-Americans - St. John's University Athletics
QUEENS, N.Y.- St. John's men's basketball student-athletes Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins have been named to the College Sports Communicators (CSC) All-Ameri...
ECU Athletics Extends Partnership with adidas, Taps BSN SPORTS as Official Distributor - East Carolina University Athletics
GREENVILLE, N.C. – East Carolina Athletics has officially signed a multi-year extension with adidas, ensuring the global sportswear leader remains the offici...
10 Reasons to Wait for the iPhone 18 Pro
Apple's iPhone development roadmap runs several years into the future and the company is continually working with suppliers on several successive iPhone models at the same time, which is why we often get rumored features months ahead of launch. The iPhone 18 series is no different, and we already have a good idea of what to expect for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max.
Mocs, adidas Renew Partnership Through BSN SPORTS
The Chattanooga Mocs and adidas are extending a successful collaboration with new features that positively impact the athletics programs, University and Chattanooga community.
Why most Indians don’t have naturally pink lips: The science explained
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EOU students win awards for their business ideas
LA GRANDE — Local university students and alumni made a big splash in April with their business ideas at the Eastern Oregon Innovation Jam. The Rural Engagement and Vitality Center […]
Pragmata is just OK, but it could’ve been great
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Baker Adventist Christian School reports a successful Science Fair
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Former K-State Athletes Barratti, Leeper Named to KSHOF Class of 2026 - Kansas State University Athletics
In an announcement by the State of Kansas Sports Hall of Fame, former K-State standouts Bob Barratti (track and field) and Nathan Leeper (track and field) wi...
Argentine bishop offers advice to young people who wish to enter politics
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OpenAI is pivoting to…socialism?
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Microsoft’s new Xbox Gamepad Cursor adds a virtual mouse to handhelds
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iPhone 18 Pro Deep Red Color Likely as Android Rivals Prep Same Shade
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 Pro is very likely to come in a new deep red color, claims a Chinese leaker, because the color is already being prototyped by Android phone makers. In February, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported that Apple is testing a deep red finish for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Rumors of purple and brown finishes have also circulated, but Gurman believes those are just variants of the same red idea.
Edina students pitch business ideas in ‘Shark Tank’ competition
An innovative claw clip, a way to recycle old flowers and bento boxes were some of the products pitched by Edina High School students at the sixth annual Edina Shark
Breaking cover: the future of the business book
Authors are experimenting with new technology and formats to better communicate ideas
Scientists were wrong about lifespan. Your genes matter way more than we thought
For years, scientists believed our lifespan was mostly shaped by environment and chance, with genetics playing only a minor role. But a new study from the Weizmann Institute flips that idea on its head, revealing that genes may actually account for about half of the differences in how long people live. By analyzing massive twin datasets—including twins raised apart—and using innovative simulations to filter out deaths from accidents and other external causes, researchers uncovered a hidden genetic influence that had been masked for decades.
Late-Inning Pushes Lift Shenandoah Past Lynchburg in Doubleheader Sweep
The University of Lynchburg softball team dropped both ends of an ODAC doubleheader against Shenandoah on Friday at Moon Field, falling 11-7 in game one and 6-5 in game two.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Newly discovered fossil challenges idea of ape origins in east Africa
The remains, discovered in 2023 and 2024, are incomplete, and made up of only a few jawbone fragments and worn teeth.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
These 6 airlines offer beds in economy; tickets can cost up to $2,600
United got the coach bed idea from Air New Zealand, which debuted its famous "Skycouch" in 2011. A few other airlines have adopted their own version.
In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
Burned Before, Democrats Abruptly Revive the Idea of Impeaching Trump
Democrats in Congress have assiduously avoided talk of a third impeachment of President Trump, concerned that it would distract from their midterm campaign message. That tide seems to have turned.
Looking for weekend plans? Book fair, Open Streets: West Walnut offer entertainment for all
There are two fun events happening this weekend that we want to tell you about! First, Books and Brews Philly and South Philly bookstore A Novel idea are teaming up for a “Grown-Up Book Fair and Swap” on Sunday afternoon. Then, also on Sunday, we have “Open Streets: West Walnut” which just opened for the spring season. NBC10’s Sheila Watko tells us more about the upcoming events!