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Celebrations for America’s 250th begin amid heat and political division
Despite sweltering heat, heavy security and brewing protests, thousands were expected to descend on the nation’s capital for the historic anniversary.
Long Reads for the Long Weekend
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) Happy Fourth of July weekend! As has been a tradition of mine going back to the beginning of the EntStrategyGuy website, I’m sharing my favorite long reads of the last year, like I did in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024, and 2025. Let’s dive right in! Subscribe “Different Prices for the Same Ride: How Uber and Lyft Use AI to Get More Money Out of You“ by Derek Kravitz in Consumer Reports I don’t think surveillance pricing, like the kind described in this brilliant Consumer Reports article, is long for the world—it’s toxically unpopular—but we’ll see if either party takes on this issue. If I ran a political party focused on affordability, I would focus on a few pro-consumer and pro-market policies: Banning non-compete agreements. Ending surveillance pricing Eliminating junk fees (read more here...) Ensuring “right to repair” for consumer (and military!) products Capping excessive app store fees Stopping digital/algorithmic price-fixing tools. Preventing automatic subscription price increases. And more. If you want to fight inflation, there are a lot of great ways to do it quickly. Speaking of higher prices... “Secret Documents Show Pepsi and Walmart Colluded to Raise Food Prices Across the Economy“ by Matt Stoller in BIG Again, I think a political party should focus on lowering prices for consumers. And deals like this—Walmart making a deal/forcing Pepsi to offer the lowest prices at its stores and nowhere else—hypothetically lower prices at Walmart...but raise them everywhere else. “15 DUIs, still driving: California’s failure to take repeat drunk drivers off the road“ by Robert Lewis and Lauren Hepler in CalMatters CalMatters does terrific reporting in California, something the Golden State desperately needs more of, and this article is a great example of that. “PugLips: The next insanely popular thing you’ve never heard of…” by Simon Carless in Game Discover Co I thought that this parody article (and yes, it’s a parody, but I was definitely unsure at first) was hilarious and totally nailed how much tech/business journalism feels these days. Actually, three of my favorite articles this year were on hype in the video game industry, including Georg Zoller’s “The Video Game Industries Very Dark Night”—which I linked to recently and wrote a follow-up here—and Owen Mahoney’s “Derek Zoolander, Videogame Exec”. In particular, I like Mahoney’s focus on user experience as a guide to what trends will actually grab hold of customers. “The Matrix Lies“ by Evan Shapiro in Media War & Peace Evan Shapiro’s first person account of his experience with AI was hilarious. I think LLMs capabilities have significantly grown from last summer, and yet...my editor/researcher just had an abysmal experience using an LLM to do a quite basic task (which our LLM normally does each week) and the LLM made a mistake on every single data entry...along with seven different mistakes affecting twelve of the twenty or so entries, including mistakes that are explicitly spelled out in the prompt. That’s a brutal failure rate. Again, if you use AI/LLM for data collection, you need to take a lot of extra steps to verify and check the data. “Ghosts in the Balcony: A Cross-Country Trip to 58 Theaters Fighting to Survive“ by Matthew Frank in The Ankler I thought Matthew Frank’s pitch to head across America to visit theaters sounded insane aggressive at the time—at least it felt that way to someone a decade older than him; man, to be in your twenties again, am I right?—but I knew the result would be great. And it was, a terrific feature by a great young writer. Also, I loved Matthew’s recent article on who’s getting the precious few entry level jobs in Hollywood. (Hint: nepotism.) “Disney erased FiveThirtyEight“ and “Did Las Vegas get too greedy?” by Nate Silver in Silver Bulletin I love media history and analysis, and there’s no one better to get the history of FiveThirtyEight than from Nate Silver, who wrote about his personal experience in one of my favorite pieces from this year. I also loved Nate’s breakdown of what’s causing Vegas’ woes, but I’ll offer one criticism, summarized as “Might I suggest antitrust?” Many centrists/center-right/libertarian thinkers (Nate is self-described as the latter) often don’t consider consolidation or antitrust as factors in policy issues like housing, America’s military readiness, or, in this case, Las Vegas. Even if libertarians want to debunk antitrust/consolidation concerns, I’d love to read that debunking. In this case, Vegas is incredibly consolidated (though it also has been for a long time) and I’d have loved to read Nate at least contending with this factor, since he addresses almost every other potential factor for Vegas’ decline. “Why Microsoft’s Carbon Removal Pullback Is Such a Big Deal“ by Robinson Meyer in Heatmap News I’m a big supporter of carbon removal efforts, but this nascent industry faces a lot of headwinds, including this big move most recently. I think it’s clear that solar panels and batteries should be able to get the world to its carbon footprint goals, but effective carbon renewal remains necessary to prevent the worst impacts of global warming. “AI is killing the cheap smartphone“ by David Oks LLMs and AI will impact the world in ways we’re not ready for, and already, third world countries are seeing the prices of cheap cellphones skyrocket due to the cost of chips skyrocketing. This article by David Oks is a terrific breakdown. “100 Days of Madness: Netflix, Paramount, Warner and the Future of Hollywood“ by Wade Major at Hollywood Heretic Wade Major dove deep into Hollywood/streaming’s financials in this must read piece. Not that I agree with everything in this article (read my take on Warner Bros./Paramount here) but the analysis is top notch. I think many people discount how quality thinking, regardless of the argument/conclusion, will make you a better thinker. “Erased by the UFC: Frank Shamrock, The MMA GOAT of the 20th Century“ by Nate Wilcox in The MMA Draw Newsletter Growing up playing the UFC fighting game on the Dreamcast, Frank Shamrock was my favorite MMA fighter, and this history/tribute to him was great. Other Fun Reads “The Hardest Part Of History To Tell Is How It Felt“ by Craig Fehrman at Defector “Unmasking the Sea Star Killer“ by Craig Welch at bioGraphic “What Could Save the Industry? Fin-Syn“ by Richard Rushfield in The Ankler Alex Rollins Berg in Underexposed on movie bumpers, pillow shots, Disney trash cinema, cult films, and Casablanca. David H. Montgomery in YouGov’s The Surveyor on punctuation marks, condiments, dinosaurs, and comic strips and kids media. “How Medium finally pivoted its way to profitability“ and “Why the best journalists on YouTube are all former Vox employees“ by Simon Owens in Simon Owens’s Media Newsletter “It’s Not Just You, Netflix Shows Have Gotten Slightly Shorter: Here’s What the Data Says“ by Kasey Moore at What’s on Netflix “Numlock Awards: How Diane Warren became the biggest loser in Oscar history“ by Nathaniel Rakich and “Numlock Awards: The Oscar Bait era is over. The Oscar Chum era is here.” by Walt Hickey & Michael Domanico at Numlock Awards
Spurs looking for community input on planned downtown arena and entertainment district
Spurs Sports and Entertainment will be looking for input from the public for the plan to move the basketball arena to downtown. The organizatin will host several community conversations beginning the ...
Red Sox visit the Angels to start 3-game series
The Los Angeles Angels begin a three-game series at home against the Boston Red Sox on Friday.
Skybound Entertainment Begins Another Equity Crowdfunding Raise
After Losses in 2024 and 2025
Titletown to host additional ‘World Soccer Watch Party’ July 6
The newly added watch party will offer a variety of entertainment and activities for families and visitors of all ages to enjoy beginning at 5 p.m.
Oregon Health Authority director resigns after turbulent tenure at agency
Fariborz Pakseresht, former director of the state's human services agency, will step in as interim director beginning July 6.
Business 51 reconstruction to begin July 6; full closure starts July 8 in Stage 1
The first stage of Stevens Point’s Business 51 reconstruction project is set to begin Monday.
Onimusha: Way Of The Sword Will Now Launch Three Weeks Earlier
The game's release date has been moved forward to the beginning of September.
Patient enrolment begins in a scientific trial to identify the first effective treatments for Bundibugyo virus disease
In a major international effort to evaluate potential treatments for Ebola disease due to Bundibugyo virus (BVD), the PARTNERS clinical trial has opened enrolment today for patients in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The 9 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026
Four months into the primary calendar, most of the battlefield is set in the race for control of the US Senate. Now the real fight begins.
Early departures indicate Golden Knights are revamping their bottom six
The beginning of the free agency period often makes it clear what vision teams around the NHL are trying to put together for themselves.
The Climate-Health Crisis Needs Money, Not More Declarations
With the fight for attention successfully won, the hard part begins – getting into the rooms that can fund the response to the worsening climate-health crisis.
ACCESS Model: behavioral health edition
A new value-based care program for chronic condition management begins July 5. | A new payment model is designed to pay digital health companies based on outcomes in chronic condition management. But where does behavioral health fit? This episode explores that question with SonderMind and Headspace, two companies participating in the model's behavioral health track.
Sony Shutting Down PlayStation Store for New Purchases on PS3 and Vita
Sony has announced the closure of its PlayStation Store on the PS3 and Vita, beginning next month in certain countries.
IQM Completes Business Combination with RAAQ and Lists on Nasdaq
IQM has completed its business combination with RAAQ and will begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker IQMX on July 2, 2026.
Confirmed: Real Madrid’s fixture list for 2026/27 season announced
The Jose Mourinho era is set to begin once again at the Santiago Bernabéu after La Liga officially unveiled the Real Madrid 2026/27 La Liga fixtures.The Spanish giants will launch their domestic camp...
A New Mountain West Era Begins
LAS VEGAS - Entering its 28th year, the Mountain West Conference officially begins a new era, marking a meaningful step in the league's continued growth and long-term strategic vision while maintaining its commitment to competitive excellence.
Central College to offer data science major
Central College will begin offering a new degree program this fall aimed at preparing students for data-focused professions across a number of industries. The Pella private college announced in a
'KEEP DONATING': Boca Raton businesses push to keep Venezuela earthquake relief efforts alive
GalaFresh and Doctor Chicha in Boca Raton are collecting donations and urging the community not to forget as Venezuela earthquake recovery begins.
Miami Dolphins Discussion: 2026 NFL Schedule Edition
As the Miami Dolphins enter another season under a new regime and navigate significant roster changes, there is a palpable sense of uncertainty surrounding the team. Like many of you, however, I am eager to see how the squad performs once the regular season begins. Miami faces a challenging road ahead, as the team is […]
Wimbledon: The Serena comeback was beautiful, thrilling and probably impossible
Four years after we last saw her on a singles court, it was hard to tell whether Williams' return to Wimbledon was the beginning of a new chapter or an attempt to author a different end.
The Vera Rubin Telescope Begins Surveying Our Cosmos
The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is beginning the widest, deepest survey yet of the southern sky.
Philadelphia Health Department announces Heat Health Emergency ahead of forecast high temps
A Heat Health Emergency has been declared in Philadelphia by the city's health department beginning at 11 a.m. Wednesday, July 1 through 8 p.m. on Saturday, July 4.
Kneisel Hall’s 2026 season to begin
Kneisel Hall’s annual Music School and Festival has returned for its 124th year on the Blue Hill Peninsula.
Pileup of health nominees awaits Senate health panel
The first of what could be a slew of Trump health confirmation hearings will begin in July.
Action! NSF–DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory Begins Capturing the Greatest Cosmic Movie Ever Made
The wait is over: NSF–DOE Rubin Observatory, funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science, is now capturing the cosmos in unprecedented detail, transforming the way we study the dynamic Universe.
Reporter: Walker Kessler will meet with Lakers
According to a reporter, the Lakers are one of the teams Walker Kessler will meet with once NBA free agency officially begins.
Palmetto Sports Daily: Hornets make big moves, 4th of July food draft begins
The crew has more on the Charlotte Hornets’ big offseason moves, including the trades of both LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges.
What we know about Sixers' situation heading into free agency
Mike Gansey’s first free agency window as the Sixers’ president of basketball operations is about to begin.
SGMC Health Welcomes 32 Resident Physicians
SGMC Health welcomes its newest cohort of resident physicians as they begin their clinical training, representing a significant milestone in the continued advancement of the organization’s Graduate Medical Education (GME) program.
Hood College Launches Accelerated One-Year Master of Science in Environmental Biology Track
Beginning in Fall 2026, Hood College's Graduate School will offer a new accelerated, 30-credit track within its Master of Science in Environmental Biology program, providing students with a pathway to earn their degree in just one academic year while gaining valuable hands-on research experience.
When sushi meets schools in rural Colorado, everyone wins
NATHAN YIP FOUNDATION Greenwood Village By JOANNE DAVIDSON SPECIAL TO COLORADO POLITICS News: Sushi-lovers from Denver and beyond know that they’re in for a treat when the Nathan Yip Foundation hosts its annual Sushi Party. The rush to purchase tickets begins months in advance and when the big day arrives, the event space atop The Dome at AMG is filled to capacity. […]
Google Pixel Watch 5 seemingly surfaces with four variants and even more questions
As another year goes by since the last Pixel hardware launch, the Pixel Watch 5 is beginning to surface online...
Careers That Shaped Biology
Every great scientific career begins with a question no one has been able to answer — and a scientist stubborn enough to keep asking it. This series looks back at the careers of some of HHMI’s most distinguished scientists — people whose contributions have changed what we know about life itself, and whose stories reflect the best of what science, and scientists, can be.
Platner Has Slight Edge Over Collins in Tight Maine Senate Race, Poll Finds
The Maine race, which both parties see as key to winning control of the Senate, is extremely close as the sprint to fall begins, a Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll found.
Why the Sixers Will Do Business Before Free Agency Begins
No, it's not flashy. But it will be the final table-setting business for them to handle before they can engage in this summer's free agency sweepstakes.
New academic leader ready to get to business in Morgantown
New Provost Beverly Wendland officially begins her post July 1.
NI health: Resident doctors begin strike action over pay
The BMA said there will "undoubtedly be cancellation of operations, outpatient appointments and elective care" but "patient safety will still be prioritised".
Got the tennis bug? How to play sport without paying
As the world's best players begin play at Wimbledon, how can you get into sport on a budget.
Paso Robles unveils entertainment lineup for July 4th celebration at Barney Schwartz Park
The evening's entertainment will begin at 5:30 p.m. with a performance by Garden Party, a local group playing music from the 1960s and 1970s.
Los Alamos Faith And Science Forum Announces Schedule Of Lectures Through Aug. 12
Courtesy image/LAFSF Los Alamos Faith and Science Forum News: For 2026, the Los Alamos Faith and Science Forum invites the public to examine issues at the interface of faith and science on Wednesdays through Aug. 12. After a light dinner at 6 p.m., presentations will begin at 6:30 p.m. to be followed by a Q […]
World Cup: the group-stage disappointments 🥶
They could still wake up... or not.This Sunday evening at 9 p.m., the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup begins with the first round-of-32 match between Canada and South Africa.The group stage has n...
Reproduction affects health—and so does biological sex
Starting one's sex life and having children at a young age can run in the family. But can pregnancy have beneficial health effects, and do the partner's genes contribute to them? "We are just beginning ...
Cleveland Browns news (6/28): New beginnings and low hopes
The latest Cleveland Browns news and notes from around the NFL in the Sunday Dawg Chow.
World Cup Round of 32: Knockout rounds begin with Canada taking on South Africa
49ers News: Gotta let the Bosa Brothers dream go…
Adam Schefter believes Joey Bosa has played his last down in the NFL“Bosa turns 31 in July. Last year was the first time he appeared in double-digit games since 2021. The 49ers would pursue an edge rusher if Nick or Mykel Williams are behind the 8-ball on their rehab. Some believe Mykel begins the season […]
Paxton’s support for IVF highlights broader divide among GOP
Anti-abortion activists believe life begins at conception, so many oppose IVF because it often destroys some embryos.
Gemini begins rolling out for existing Android Automotive vehicles
Some months after its confirmation, Gemini for Android Automotive appears to be finally rolling out to existing vehicles.
Williams to begin Wimbledon comeback against Joint
American superstar Serena Williams will make her highly-anticipated singles comeback at Wimbledon against Australia's Maya Joint in the first round.
X Games debut in Sacramento brings world's top action sports athletes to Cal Expo
Let the games begin. The debut of the X Games in Sacramento is on Friday at Cal Expo.
Health officials: State's first West Nile virus-positive mosquito of the year found in Berkshires
“With warmer weather and summer officially beginning this week, it is the time of year when we typically begin detecting West Nile virus in mosquito populations,” a public health official said.
Caitlin Clark made the WNBA bigger. It’s still playing small
The league’s paltry one-game suspension of Alyssa Thomas after her fist to Caitlin Clark's throat barely begins to address the problem.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
What to know about early warnings for earthquakes
Many countries have systems to alert people seconds before shaking begins in an earthquake. Experts say even a slight warning provides critical time for protection.
Saint Alphonsus Health System begins 260,000-square-foot Nampa expansion
Saint Alphonsus Health System broke ground on the expansion of Saint Alphonsus Medical Center-Nampa.The expansion will more than double the hospital's current s
From the Beginning, Politics Triggered Broadcasting
Media scholars argued that politics, not technology, shaped American broadcasting from 1927 on, repeatedly shielding incumbents from competition.
EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION ENDOWMENT ADVISORY BOARD APPROVES HEALTH INSURANCE SUBISIDY PROGRAM FOR EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATORS
EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION ENDOWMENT ADVISORY BOARD APPROVES HEALTH INSURANCE SUBSIDY PROGRAM FOR EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATORS FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 25, 2026 The Early Childhood Education Endowment’s Advisory Board voted on Tuesday to approve the new early childhood educator health insurance subsidy program beginning in 2027 and available through Access Health CT open enrollment starting October 23, 2026. Established into law…
ServiceNow: An Excellent Business Trading at a Discount
ServiceNow is doing everything right, and its stock price should begin to reflect that fact.
Bungie Hit With Widespread Layoffs As ‘Destiny 2’ Ends And ‘Marathon’ Continues
Destiny 2's end has led to inescapable layoffs at Bungie, which are beginning today as the rest of the studio will now work on Marathon.
Texas Democrats head to convention with optimism, but questions about November remain
The Texas Democratic Convention begins Thursday in Corpus Christi. The three-day convention features several national and statewide figures in the party — this while polls show Democratic candidate James Talarico essentially even with his Republican opponent for U.S. Senate, Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Red Sox begin 4-game series at home against the Yankees
The Boston Red Sox open a four-game series at home against the New York Yankees on Thursday.
Is Yankees manager Aaron Boone’s fan survey grade fair?
Boone’s team begins a four-game set in Boston tonight.
Porsche Unveils 911 GT4 R as 718 Cayman Replacement
Porsche 911 Cup-based model to compete in GT4 ranks beginning next year...
'Marcus Alert' begins in Danville and Pittsylvania County for mental health crises
Danville and Pittsylvania County officials have launched the Marcus Alert Program.
Where health begins
Dean Bernadette Boden-Albala has spent her career exploring the factors that affect well-being long before disease develops
DC Wrap: Trump lashes out over Iran vote; Great American State Fair begins
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
DC Wrap: Trump lashes out over Iran vote; Great American State Fair begins
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
Propsal to limit lobbying in city of San Diego politics moves forward
The San Diego City Council’s Rules Committee voted unanimously Wednesday to direct staff to begin drafting a proposed ethics reform package aimed at lobbyists and dark money.
Pat Kelsey & The Snub
Sunrise/ Sunset/ Since the beginning it hasn’t changed yet/ People fly high begin to lose sight/ You can’t see very clearly when you’re in flight — “On Your Way Down” Allen Toussaint To be honest I didn’t pay much attention initially when Pat Kelsey was first asked Monday morning about not being invited to attend […]
Foldable iPhone 'Ultra' Set for Production in July Despite Hinge Issues
Apple's rumored foldable iPhone "Ultra" is expected to begin mass production at the end of July, according to a new report by The Elec. Although some recent reports suggested the book-style device could be delayed due to hinge-related issues, the Korean outlet's sources indicate that Apple is still targeting a September launch as planned.
Daily Bean: Trades! Trades! Trades! More Rumors, Bruins Draft Board
Where do we begin? The Boston Bruins did not grab any headlines yesterday. They signed P-Bruins goaltender Simon Zajicek to […] The post Daily Bean: Trades! Trades! Trades! More Rumors, Bruins Draft Board appeared first on Boston Hockey Now.
Salt Lake City to begin requiring business licenses for short-term rentals
Utah's capital city is now cracking down on recent short-term rental challenges through an ordinance that will require business licenses to operate them.
Windows 11 KB5095093 update rolls out new Point-in-Time restore feature
Microsoft has released the KB5095093 preview cumulative update for Windows 11 24H2 and 25H2, which fixes numerous bugs and begins rolling out new features, including the new Point-in-Time restore feature.
NBA trade rumors: Bidding war for Jaylen Brown looming; Bucks could flip Tyler Herro after Giannis deal
With the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes finally over, the rest of the offseason can begin
Trump’s Private Health Troubles Are Revealed
Aides confessed the 80-year-old president was “beginning to seem old” for the first time.
Primary voting begins in New York, Maryland and Utah
In New York, Mamdani has thrown support behind three congressional candidates and Super Pacs have been pouring money into a single race
Heartland business collecting donations for tornado victims
As the community of Mount Vernon begins to move forward, one local business is stepping up in an effort to aid those impacted by Sunday’s deadly tornado.
Phillies turn to opener, make ‘commitment' to fifth rotation spot
The Phillies will use Tim Mayza as an opener Monday, then turn to Alan Rangel as they begin to settle on a new plan for their fifth rotation spot.
UNCW Launches Bachelor of Science in Data Science Program
A new undergraduate program in data science will be offered at UNCW beginning in August 2026.
Four trades the Steelers should make before training camp
Four trades the Steelers should make before training camp begins.
Construction set to begin on new dining, entertainment at South End arts hub
The more than 20 existing artist studios will remain in place during construction, and signature community events will continue.
Computer science graduate Anthony Burrows set to begin pursuing second bachelor’s in engineering this fall
Burrows, a member of the UMSL’s men’s tennis team, first came to the university as part of a cohort of 20 students from The Bahamas.
Apple Approves Production of OLED Panels for Foldable iPhone
Samsung Display has received Apple's approval to begin module production of OLED panels for Apple's first foldable iPhone, according to a report today from TheElec. Citing industry sources, the report says Samsung Display has started operating part of its back-end production lines in Vietnam to fulfill an initial order of around three million panels scheduled for delivery this year.
Open Door Health Services Appoints Dr. Amelia Clark as Next Chief Executive Officer
By Carolyn Frost— MUNCIE, IN—After an extensive national search, the Board of Directors at Open Door Health Services is pleased to announce Amelia E. Clark, DrPH, as its new chief executive officer and president. Dr. Clark will begin on July 6, succeeding Bryan Ayars, who will retire in mid-July
Aerial begins in Fort Bend County after mosquito population grows to become public health emergency
Planes will drop pesticides over designated areas around Fort Bend County each evening through Thursday, officials said.
Rockies host the Red Sox to open 3-game series
The Colorado Rockies begin a three-game series at home against the Boston Red Sox on Monday.
ARCH MADNESS EXPANDS: MVC WOMEN’S BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP MOVING TO ST. LOUIS IN 2027
The Missouri Valley Conference Board of Directors has approved a series of enhancements to the Conference's basketball championship structure beginning with the 2027 season, including the relocation of the MVC Women’s Basketball Championship to St. Louis and the adoption of a new 10-team tournament format for both men’s and women’s basketball.
$24M Springfield sports, wellness center to begin construction this year
A downtown Springfield indoor sports and wellness facility will begin construction this year thanks in part to state capital funds.
Apple's first Ultras are coming: 20 new products in 2026–2027 according to Bloomberg
Apple's new CEO John Ternus will begin his tenure in September with a wave of new products that will bring Apple fans many exciting new releases. Well-known Bloomberg analyst Mark Gurman has listed the most important new products coming our way after the summer break, including the first ones potentially bearing the “Ultra” moniker.
Honkai: Nexus Anima ‘Evolution Test’ begins July 9
miHoYo will host the “Evolution Test” for creature-collector adventure strategy game Honkai: Nexus Anima beginning July 9 across PC, iOS, and Android, the company announced. An end date…
The Siege of Death Mire begins: Submit your results
Help to decide the fate of a key Armageddon hive.
Construction starts on 7th Highlands Oncology Center
Springdale-based cancer-care provider Highlands Oncology recently broke ground on a five-story, 125,000-square-foot cancer-care center along Interstate 49 in the Pinnacle Hills area of Rogers. The Rogers Cancer Center at 4872...
Free summer movies to start July 2
The Grand and the city of Ellsworth will host free Outdoor Movies by Moonlight in Knowlton Park on select Thursdays beginning July 2.
The media has declared open season on Alexi Lalas
In the ever-growing genre of media criticism, few have ever been as soft a target as Fox Sports soccer analyst Alexi Lalas. It has seemingly become a once-every-four-years tradition. Fox will begin its World Cup coverage. Americans will rediscover everything they despise about the professional shit-stirrer. And a deluge of thinkpieces will follow, ripping the…
Road resurfacing to begin on Business Route 50 near California on Monday
One lane of Business Route 50 will be closed from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Monday through Friday, until the end of July.