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Hugging Face Has a Deepfake Nudes Problem
Researchers tested top image editing models on Hugging Face and found they could easily create explicit deepfakes—and 1,000 image editing prompts show how people use the software.
Mizzou researchers find simple habit to improve physical, mental health
Study highlights how consistent daily habits can lower pain and depression, regardless of sleep quality.
A single sauna session sends immune cells surging
A single 30-minute sauna session may briefly put the immune system on higher alert. Finnish researchers found that sauna heat, paired with a short cold shower, increased every type of white blood cell circulating in the bloodstream, including key infection fighters such as neutrophils and lymphocytes.
Stony Brook University Researchers Chosen for DOE Genesis Mission AI-for-Science Awards
July 27, 2026 — Researchers at the State University of New York at Stony Brook (Stony Brook University) secured five inaugural awards through the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Genesis Mission, a national AI-for-science initiative designed to accelerate scientific discovery and strengthen U.S. leadership in innovation, energy and national security. The awards reinforce Stony Brook University’s […]
Misfolded insulin may be quietly driving diabetes
Researchers found that insulin-producing cells depend on a team of helper proteins to keep insulin production on track. When one key partner was missing, damaged proteins built up and the cells made less insulin. Strengthening this system could offer a new way to protect the pancreas as diabetes progresses.
Can we stop AI from flooding scientific journals?
AI detectors may never beat fraud. Changing how science rewards its researchers might be the only fix that does
Ancient human relative cannibalized both adults and children in a cave in Spain 850,000 years ago, fossils reveal
Newly excavated bones from Gran Dolina cave in Spain reveal an ancient human relative practiced cannibalism on adults and children, but researchers still don't know why.
Scientists pinpoint where cells first begin copying DNA
Researchers at the MRC Laboratory of Medical Sciences (LMS) and collaborators have uncovered one of the earliest steps in DNA replication: the moment a cell first opens its DNA to begin making a copy ...
New Global CARE-AI Framework Sets Standard for Responsible AI in Health Education and Care
An international team of researchers, clinicians, educators, ethicists, and patient partners has developed and validated the Health CARE-AI (Contextual, Accountable, Responsible, and Equitable Artificial Intelligence) Framework. Published in JMIR Medical Education, the landmark study provides an actionable, consensus-backed roadmap for the responsible integration of AI across the health care learning and practice continuum.
Dementia affecting younger persons strikes Hispanics more than previously thought, UT Health San Antonio-led study shows
Educational disparities contribute to diagnostic delays of frontotemporal dementia Contact: Steven Lee, (210) 450-3823, lees22@uthscsa.edu SAN ANTONIO, July 27, 2026 – A form of dementia that strikes younger people is more common in Hispanics than previously thought, according to a new study led by researchers at UT Health San Antonio, the academic health center of […]
Popular School Cafeteria Meals Need An Update To Meet Healthy Food Standards, Researchers Say
By Dennis Thompson HealthDay ReporterMONDAY, July 27, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Spicy chicken wings, tacos, pizza, sausage biscuits and breakfast smoothies offered by school cafeterias must be reinvented, lest they vanish from the menu, a new study says. These items all contain loads of added sugar ...
Mental health remains a struggle for AI chatbots, researchers find
AI chatbots have gotten better at suicide safety, but Northeastern research finds most still fail on other mental health conditions.
Germany's sick-note crackdown may be treating the symptoms, not the disease
Germany's plans to tighten sick-note rules may be mistaking the symptoms of rising absenteeism for the underlying illness, researchers say, pointing to mental health strains and deteriorating working conditions in sectors such as healthcare and education.
YouTube’s health content rewards attention-grabbing videos over reliable medical information
Researchers analyzed 3,958 Korean-language medical YouTube videos and found that clickbait-heavy content attracted more views, likes, and comments. Higher-quality videos from medical professionals and public institutions often received less attention, highlighting a visibility gap in online health information.
LANL: UC ‘AI Science At Scale’ Summit Showcases Landmark Innovations With Senior National Lab Leadership Including DDSTE Pat Fitch Present
Attendees of the UC ‘AI Science at Scale’ summit held on June 11 in Santa Fe. Courtesy/LANL LANL News: On June 11, 2026, the University of California (UC) convened researchers and leaders from across the UC system in Santa Fe, New Mexico, for the first annual “AI Science at Scale” summit. The summit was planned […]
The best way to save giant sequoias may be more fire
Giant sequoias are built to withstand ordinary fires, but recent extreme wildfires killed thousands of trees that had survived for centuries or even millennia. A new analysis of about 26,400 sequoias found that trees in areas treated with prescribed burns were nearly four times more likely to survive. Researchers estimate the controlled fires prevented about 1,900 deaths and could have saved thousands more if used across every grove.
ADHD looks different in women and poses unique health risks
For decades, ADHD was viewed as a childhood condition that mostly affected boys. Researchers now know ADHD manifests differently in girls, but many still go undiagnosed until adulthood.
Hospices worry patients will be unfairly punished amid fraud crisis
Health policy researchers and providers say negative attention and the potential for overly punitive regulations could put patients at risk.
Covalence Summer Edition: The ever-expanding intersection of faith, science, and AI - Lutheran Alliance for Faith, Science and Technology
From legal experts to interfaith researchers, more parts of our daily conversations are incorporating concerns about faith, science, and AI.
Hidden genetic diversity helped inbred brown tree snakes conquer guam
A notorious snake invasion that devastated Guam’s native birds may have succeeded because the reptiles carried hidden genetic advantages. Using advanced long-read DNA sequencing, researchers uncovered more than 19,000 large genetic differences in brown tree snakes, many concentrated in genes tied to immunity and smell. This overlooked diversity may have helped a population founded by only a few snakes survive inbreeding, adapt to a new environment, and multiply to extraordinary densities.
Scientists trace the shocking origin of human eyes to an ancient “cyclops”
Researchers say a tiny one-eyed ancestor that lived nearly 600 million years ago may have shaped the evolution of every vertebrate eye, including our own. They also found that its ancient median eye lives on today as the pineal gland, which helps synchronize our sleep with daylight.
U of A researchers lament 'explicit politicization of science' under Trump
Former and current researchers at the University of Arizona are somewhat divided on whether UA administrators are doing enough to push back against the Trump administration’s cutting of federal research
Archers dominate Outlaws in Western Conference clash
First blood has been drawn in the push for the Western Conference regular-season crown. Through the whipping winds and driving rain, the Utah Archers dominated their conference rivals, the Denver...
Breaking through the quantum noise barrier
Quantum computing has spent years existing in the space between promise and practicality.The machines exist. Tech giants are building them. Researchers have shown that, for certain problems, quantum computers could one day dramatically outperform today’s fastest supercomputers.The obstacle isn’t that the computers don’t work. It’s that they’re extraordinarily fragile.
Stony Brook University Researchers Chosen for Landmark DOE Genesis Mission AI-for-Science Awards
More than $2.4M will support collaborations with Brookhaven National Lab and other institutions to address complex science and technology challenges Researchers at the State University of New York at Stony Brook (Stony Brook University) secured five inaugural awards through the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Genesis Mission, a national AI-for-science initiative designed to accelerate scientific
Radiology sees ‘substantially lower' relative growth in training capacity compared to rest of medicine
“These findings collectively suggest that the bottleneck in radiology training capacity may be financial rather than structural," researchers write in the Journal of the American College of Radiology.
New warnings that Russian operatives are targeting the emails of US nuclear scientists and defense contractors
A group of Russian hackers has spent the last year targeting nuclear scientists, defense contractors, and government employees in a cyber-espionage campaign, according to private-sector researchers and warnings from spy agencies released Thursday.
AU School of Public Health researcher awarded $1.3 million for IDD study
The project aims to improve how individuals with intellectual and/or developmental disabilities (IDD), including autism, are included in research.
Reflecting the Real Faces Behind the Physical Sciences
AIP’s Faces of the Physical Sciences initiative is building a richer visual story of the researchers, educators, and students behind scientific progress. Your images can help preserve that story and determine who gets to be seen.
Ohio State researchers to lead national teams exploring science, AI innovation
The Ohio State University continues to build momentum as a national leader in artificial intelligence research and innovation. This week, two teams led by Ohio State researchers joined a $293 million initiative sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to harness AI for breakthroughs in energy dominance, discovery science and national sec...
When It Comes to Fusion, Materials Matter
Fusion at high temperatures powers the sun and, if harnessed, could provide a potential source of energy here on Earth. But controlling fusion reactions has other benefits. The process also generates subatomic particles called neutrons that are used in a range of applications spanning medicine, research, and national security. Now, scientists at the University of California, Davis (UC Davis), and the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have found that the materials surrounding a fusion reaction can dramatically increase how often it occurs, particularly at low energies where fusion is rare. The study was published July 18 in Nature Communications. Their approach sets up a way to study and engineer nuclear reactions within solid materials, opening a new field of “materials-driven fusion.” Instead of designing materials just to survive the harsh conditions of fusion, researchers might be able to design materials that boost the reaction in specific conditions, similar to the way catalysts speed up chemical processes. “It gives you a new knob to turn that you didn’t have before,” said Arun Persaud, head of the Fusion Science & Ion Beam Technology group in Berkeley Lab’s Accelerator Technology & Applied Physics (ATAP) Division. “If we understand this effect better, it opens the door to engineering new materials that would affect the fusion rate under certain conditions. Someday future progress might enable more compact and efficient neutron generators, which have all kinds of applications, like cargo screening, planetary science, and medical therapy and imaging.” In the experiment, researchers used two different methods to pack deuterium, a heavy form of hydrogen atoms that is often used in fusion, into thin foils of palladium and titanium. They then fired a beam of deuterium ions at the foils at different energies and measured how often fusion happened. Then they compared the rates from the different materials and methods with the “bare” fusion reaction (not in a material). The team found that fusion rates depended on how the deuterium was loaded into the metal foils. The biggest effect was at the lowest energies, below 2.5 kiloelectronvolts (keV), where theory predicts fusion rates drop off sharply. Instead, researchers found a surprising plateau: Some samples showed elevated fusion rates roughly a quintillion times higher than bare fusion reactions. (A quintillion is a 1 followed by 18 zeroes.) Researchers are not exactly sure why that’s happening, though they have some ideas and ways to test them. The electrons and defects within the material might partially shield repulsive electrostatic forces between deuterium nuclei, making it easier for them to get close together and fuse. Tuning the electronic structure, defects, and composition of materials could help make nuclear reactions happen more readily. “It comes down to better understanding the mechanism so that we can try to enhance it,” said corresponding author Jeremy Munday, a professor at UC Davis. “We’ve seen that we can increase fusion rates, but what is the limit? Can we bring it to lower temperatures or energies? There’s obviously a lot of interest and excitement about fusion, so if there’s something we can learn about the physics at these lower energy scales, maybe there’s something we can translate to other areas of nuclear science.” The team plans to explore a wider range of materials and continue probing the unexpected fusion plateau at lower energies. Their work establishes a reproducible experimental platform to study how solid materials influence nuclear reactions, creating a new area of research that links fusion science with materials science and chemistry. “The work shows conclusively that the material environment where fusion occurs at low temperatures is an active participant rather than a passive container,” said Cameron Geddes, director of ATAP. “That adds a new dimension to fusion research.” This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E). ### Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) is committed to groundbreaking research focused on discovery science and solutions for abundant and reliable energy supplies. The lab’s expertise spans materials, chemistry, physics, biology, earth and environmental science, mathematics, and computing. Researchers from around the world rely on the lab’s world-class scientific facilities for their own pioneering research. Founded in 1931 on the belief that the biggest problems are best addressed by teams, Berkeley Lab and its scientists have been recognized with 17 Nobel Prizes. Berkeley Lab is a multiprogram national laboratory managed by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science. DOE’s Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States, and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, please visit energy.gov/science.
Landmark Aging Study by UT Health Sciences Researcher Published in Nature
A University of Tennessee Health Sciences researcher has published findings that could reshape how medicine approaches aging, longevity and late-life health, including the prospect of personalized interventions that keep people healthier longer.
New Trump administration rules on federal science funding could make American research slower, costlier and harder to share
Beyond deprioritizing scientific merit, the Trump administration’s proposal also restricts researchers’ ability to share their findings and collaborate with each other.
Can a Madison summer camp get teens interested in science careers?
After two decades of hosting a camp, researchers at UW-Madison’s Morgridge Institute are evaluating the program's long-term impact.
AI-backed imaging workflow helps generalist radiologists perform like breast specialists
Scaling the solution across the U.S. has the potential to mitigate the current shortfall of breast radiologists, researchers contend.
Trump to steer billions from universities to AI and individual scientists
White House says overhaul will back AI and researchers to restore the US scientific edge as Beijing closes the innovation gap.
Michigan Tech Atmospheric Scientists Linked to Three Research Projects Selected for DOE Genesis Mission
Michigan Technological University researchers are involved in three proposals tapped by the U.S. Department of Energy for consideration under its recently launched Genesis Mission: Transforming Science and Energy with AI. The mission’s goal is to address national science and technology challenges using artificial intelligence.
Immigration sweeps in L.A. cost businesses millions in revenue, UCLA study finds
Researchers found there were 46,000 fewer customer visits among formal businesses within half a mile of nine documented enforcement sites and an estimated $3.16 million in accumulated revenue losses during the two weeks after enforcement activity.
Mice on 'godforsaken' frozen volcanoes eat toxic plants to survive conditions 'not remotely compatible with long-term human survival'
Researchers risked their lives to study Andean leaf-eared mice on the inhospitable peaks of the Puna de Atacama volcanoes in Chile.
Stony Brook University Researchers Chosen for Landmark DOE Genesis Mission AI-for-Science Awards
More than $2.4M will support collaborations with Brookhaven National Lab and other institutions to address complex science and technology challenges WASHINGTON, D.C., July 22, 2026 – Researchers at the State University of New York at Stony Brook (Stony Brook University) secured five inaugural awards through the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Genesis Mission, a national AI-for-science
Great Barrier Reef microbiome mapped as researchers discover 500 bacterial species previously unknown to science
Research identifies 808,585 viral genomes belonging to what scientists estimate to be 362,802 different viruses
Berkeley Lab to Lead 13 New Genesis Mission AI Projects
Researchers will apply AI, supercomputing, and advanced instruments to accelerate discoveries for energy, science, and national security.
SBU Researchers Chosen for DOE Genesis Mission AI Awards
Stony Brook University researchers secured five awards through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Genesis Mission, a national AI-for-science initiative.
UA researcher leads global effort to promote reliable health information
UA's Rebecca Ivic anchors a global commission on health communication sponsored by Nature Medicine, a leading academic journal.
Wyss Institute receives Massachusetts Life Science Center award to advance metabolomics and lipidomics research across Massachusetts ecosystem
By Benjamin Boettner (BOSTON) — The Wyss Institute at Harvard University has received an award from the Massachusetts Life Science Center (MLSC), enabling it to host a next-generation metabolomics and lipidomics analytical platform. The platform will allow its researchers to creatively pursue new approaches to biomarker and drug discovery across multiple health challenges the Institute...
Less invasive anesthesia strategies during TAVR linked to a key benefit
Long-term TAVR outcomes were comparable. When tracking 30-day data, however, researchers found that hospital readmission was much less common for patients treated with regional anesthesia or moderate sedation.
A 30-year follow-up: Yale researchers reconnect with child participants in metabolic health study
For more than three decades, Yale researchers have partnered with young people across the state to better understand the biological factors underlying metabolic health.
AI Companies Are Stripping Colleges of Their Best Researchers
The new career path for professors: Join Anthropic.
A Massive Flow of Rock and Mud Tumbled Down Mount Rainier Centuries Ago. Scientists Pinpointed Its Date to Better Understand the Volcano's Complex Threats
In a recent study, researchers dated a historic lahar called the Electron Mudflow to the summer of 1507, establishing a way to determine when past geologic events around the Puget Sound occurred
Researchers gather at Cornell Tech to explore AI for molecular science
Researchers from around the world gathered at Cornell Tech for a workshop exploring how physics-aware artificial intelligence can accelerate the discovery of molecules and materials while improving the reliability of machine learning models.
The secret to successful sports organizations? Employees who feel safe enough to speak up
With major sporting events like Wimbledon and the FIFA World Cup drawing global attention this summer, new findings from a University of Florida researcher highlight an often-overlooked factor behind their success: the well-being of the employees working behind the scenes.
Agentic AI in biomedical research: What is it and can it expedite science?
Researchers are venturing into a new area of collaboration that relies on agentic AI, co-scientists that can act independently and help humans ideate, hypothesize and speed up scientific exploration.
A Device Hidden in Cars Across the US Leaves Them Vulnerable to Hacking and Paralysis. Patch It Now
Dealerships installed alarms in millions of vehicles—and left them in even if the buyer didn’t want them. Now researchers warn they can be hacked to unlock, track, and disable cars.
UF Health researchers uncover biological clues behind childhood scoliosis
A study identifies gene activity differences in spinal tissue, offering insight into a condition whose causes remain largely unknown.
WHO marks 25 years of Research4Life, advancing access to scientific knowledge in more than 120 countries
The World Health Organization (WHO) today marks the 25th anniversary of Research4Life, a public-private partnership that provides researchers, educators, health professionals and policy-makers in low- and middle-income countries with affordable or free access to scientific knowledge.
Hackers are exploiting recently patched WordPress bugs, putting millions of websites at risk
Two critical security flaws in WordPress’ software have given hackers the chance to remotely take over tens of millions of websites, according to an estimate by a cybersecurity researcher.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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Acknowledgments
This is a Pew Research Center report from the Pew-Knight Initiative, a research program funded jointly by The Pew Charitable Trusts and the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation. Find related reports online at https://www.pewresearch.org/pew-knight/. Primary Researchers Elisa Shearer, Senior ResearcherLuxuan Wang, Research AssociateKaterina Eva Matsa, Director, News and Information Research Michael Lipka, Associate Director, News […]
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