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Fern Creek High School students participate in new fire science program
Students at Fern Creek High School have a new place to learn and explore careers as first responders.
Apple App Store threatened to remove Grok over deepfakes: letter
In a letter to senators sent in January, Apple detailed how it responded to Grok’s ability to generate sexualized deepfakes.
Bengals stop Jeremiyah Love's fall, Chiefs double down at CB in NFL mock draft based on what teams should do
Most mock drafts try to predict what teams will do. This one flips the script. Here's how I'd attack Round 1 as each team's GM.
House Republicans Step Up Scrutiny of ActBlue Over Foreign Donations
Three Republican-led committees, responding to a New York Times report this month, accused the Democratic fund-raising organization of withholding documents from a subpoena request.
New York Yankees respond after Aaron Judge called out team
The MLB regular season is in full swing, and teams are already battling early in the year. Some clubs have jumped out to hot starts. Others, however, have stumbled out of the gate. The New York Yankees entered Monday on…
Why NBC Sports' Connor Rodgers Thinks Indiana CB D’Angelo Ponds Is the ‘Perfect Fit’ for the Jets
Rogers Compares Corner’s Playstyle to Aaron Glenn
Shades of Ferguson but Carrick needs a response
Michael Carrick seemed to be taking a chapter out of Sir Alex Ferguson's play book with his ferocious attack on the decisions that went against Manchester United last night. The big question is how will they respond?
NASA science leader responds to Artemis II critics
Vance Says Pope Leo Should Stay Out of U.S. Affairs
The vice president, a Catholic, defended President Trump, who had accused the pope of being too liberal and “weak on crime.”The pontiff responded that he had “no fear of the Trump administration.”
Towards better vision: WHO South-East Asia regional meeting on eye health
The WHO South-East Asia Regional Meeting on Eye Health was convened to address the substantial and persistent burden of avoidable vision impairment in the Region. South-East Asia accountsfor nearly one third of the world’s blind and visually impaired population, with cataract, uncorrected refractive error, and diabetic retinopathy contributing to more than 90 percent of cases. The meeting responded to the need for coordinated action to achieve the 2030 global targets for effective cataract surgical coverage and effective refractive error coverage, and to advance implementation of the Regional Action Plan for Integrated People Centred Eye Care. It provided a platform for reviewing progress, identifying system gaps, and strengthening country pathways to accelerate universal access to quality eye care.
NASA science leader responds to Artemis II critics
Donalds says FL should counter Democrats by redistricting. That’s illegal here
Byron Donalds said “Florida needs to respond” to Virginia by redrawing Congressional districts, but partisan gerrymandering is barred here.
About His Business
Elder Kearon teaches that callings from the Lord are tailor-made for our growth and that when we respond to a call, we don’t merely fill an assignment but join the Saviour in His redeeming work.
Santee business owner arrested for allegedly threatening deputies
A Santee business owner was arrested this weekend after allegedly threatening to shoot sheriff's deputies who had responded to reports of gunshots, officials said.
Santee business owner arrested for allegedly threatening deputies
A Santee business owner was arrested this weekend after allegedly threatening to shoot sheriff's deputies who had responded to reports of gunshots, officials said.
Why Ozempic doesn’t work for everyone: Scientists just found a hidden reason
A new study reveals that popular diabetes and weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy may not work as effectively for about 10% of people due to specific genetic variants. These individuals appear to have a puzzling condition called “GLP-1 resistance,” where their bodies produce higher levels of the hormone targeted by these drugs—but don’t respond to it properly.
Childers never doubted Victory Lane return: 'Not a chance in hell'
Rodney Childers, crew chief for Zilisch and JRM's No. 1 Chevrolet, responds when asked if he ever doubted he'd make it to Victory Lane again.
Rockstar Games has confirmed it was hit by third-party data breach
The ShinyHunters hacking group is giving Rockstar Games until April 14 to respond to its threats.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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Responding to impeachment calls, Rick Scott likens Donald Trump to Abraham Lincoln, FDR, Harry Truman
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Respondents evaluated each partner against 10 criteria
Access, AI and an aging population: ‘Business Report’ examines the state of Capital Region health care
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Sacramento crews respond to fire at pallet yard business
The Sacramento Fire Department responded to a fire at a pallet yard on Tuesday night.
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DA identifies man killed by Boston Police after alleged sword attack, mental health crisis
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Hospital in Montebello evacuated after reports of fire
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Protein is personal. Here's how to calculate your optimal intake
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A Look At Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Valuation After Guggenheim’s Bullish Update And Las Vegas Event Momentum
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‘Unhinged madman’: US politicians react to Trump’s expletive-laden threat to Iran
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Close Up: Highlighting women in history and Iowa politics
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How Investors May Respond To Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO) Liquidity Jitters Amid Premium Macau Push
In recent weeks, Melco Resorts & Entertainment reported mixed fourth-quarter 2025 results, while major banks including BofA Securities, UBS, and Morgan Stanley updated their research views on the company amid concerns over liquidity, margins, and Macau market conditions. At the same time, Melco underscored its premium positioning by highlighting eight MICHELIN Stars across five Macau restaurants, reinforcing how high-end non-gaming offerings are becoming a central part of its hospitality and...
North Shore businesses suffer in aftermath of Kona-low storms
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Multiple departments respond to fire at Boardman business
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Henry Winkler responds to William Shatner's offer to try to get him on 'DWTS' next season
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LMPD to release video Friday from officers who responded to mental health crisis call
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Advocates push for more mental health resources for first responders
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Scientists say BMI gets it wrong for over one third of adults
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Flutter Entertainment NYSE FLUT Valuation Check After FanDuel Predicts Optimism And Favorable Sportsbook Results
Board change and what it might mean for Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) has drawn fresh attention after two separate developments: a boardroom change in its compensation leadership and renewed focus on how its US-facing operations respond to recent betting trends. See our latest analysis for Flutter Entertainment. Despite fresh interest around FanDuel Predicts and sportsbook profitability when favorites lose, Flutter Entertainment’s share price has faced...
Harrisburg Police investigating shooting, robbery at local business
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'A considerable gamble' at 'a fragile moment'
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Iran fires missiles at Israel and Gulf neighbors as Trump talks of winding down Mideast war
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Group homes licensed by the Health Department drive growth — and problems
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Apple CEO Tim Cook Explains His Relationship With Trump
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Faulkingham responds to alleged labor violations
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Will California elect a GOP governor? Democrats are panicked
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Naked man breaks into Bend business, faces multiple charges
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Al Leiter knows a few things about New York Mets overhauls. Leiter, who pitched for the club from 1998 through 2004 and ranks sixth in team history with 95 wins, was amongst the holdovers during a Mets overhaul following the 1998 season, which resulted in a trip to the National League Championship ...
Planned Parenthood, groups launch campaign against transgender ballot measures in Colorado
Planned Parenthood and other groups have launched a coalition to oppose two ballot measures that would ban transgender surgeries among children and require student athletes to only join sports teams that correspond to their biological sex. The two measures will appear in this year’s November ballot, setting the stage for a statewide debate over sports, […]
Why did Microsoft end 'This is an Xbox' marketing? Microsoft responds — "It didn't feel like Xbox."
Microsoft's controversial Xbox marketing campaign "This is an Xbox" was almost immediately ended after new CEO Asha Sharma came on board. Here's why.
Social workers accompanying Hemet police officers for mental health calls
Hemet police partnered with the Riverside University Health Systems to have licensed social workers and detectives respond to mental health calls.
Hemet PD teams up with social workers to respond to mental health calls
Olympians react to the IOC policy change to protect women's sports
Olympians including Martina Navratilova and Nancy Hogshead are responding to the IOC's decision to bar biological males from women's sports, calling it a step toward fairness.
Doc Rivers responds to NBPA's critical statement of Bucks sitting Giannis Antetokounmpo: 'He's just not healthy'
Doc Rivers responds to NBPA's critical statement of Bucks sitting Giannis Antetokounmpo: 'He's just not healthy'
Pullman Danang Beach Resort Responds to Rising Bleisure Travel with Expanded Business and Leisure Facilities
/PRNewswire/ -- As global travel patterns continue to evolve, "bleisure" travel, which combines business trips with leisure experiences, has become a...
Encouraging progress in inclusive health policies for refugees and migrants
The World Health Organization (WHO) reports a major shift in how countries are responding to the health needs of refugees and migrants, with new data showing more than 60 countries—two thirds of those surveyed—now include them in their national health policies and laws.
James Talarico Responds With ‘Love’ To Hegseth Pastor’s Criticism
James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas, said, “You may pray for my death, Pastor, but I still love you.” The pastor said he was calling for Mr. Talarico’s religious conversion.
‘Beyond the Gates’: Tamara Tunie on Anita’s Devastating Cancer Low Point
Tunie opens up about the emotional and physical toll of the 'powerful' storyline, as well as how viewers have responded to Anita's cancer experience.
With Their Voter Bill Stymied, G.O.P. Leaders Ponder a Plan B
Republicans are eying a last-ditch procedural maneuver to overcome united Democratic opposition, but the chances for success are slim.
Person shot dead at business on Lockbourne Road
Columbus police responded to a shooting on Lockbourne Road early Wednesday morning.Few details were immediately available, but ABC6 confirmed the shooting t
Man in custody after report of assault with deadly weapon at Venice health center
Law enforcement officers responded Tuesday to a report of an assault with a deadly weapon outside a health center in Venice Officers, including SWAT team members in at least one armored vehicle, were at the Chuck Lorre Rose Avenue Wellness Center after the report of a suspect with gun. A standoff ensued before the man walked along the outside of…
Democrats’ long-shot bid to flip Alaska’s Senate seat
Democrats are hoping for an upset in Alaska’s Senate race. U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, a Democrat, is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. We discuss the major issues at play, plus why Republicans are backing an effort to repeal Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system.This episode: voting correspondent Miles Parks, senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro, and Alaska Public Media Washington correspondent Liz Ruskin.This podcast was produced by Casey Morell and Bria Suggs, and edited by Rachel Baye.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.
Blog explains why context matters in discussions on health care spending
An AHA blog published March 24 responds to a recent KFF brief on the role of hospital care in recent health care spending growth.
G7 Entertainment Marketing Launches Wild by G7 to Help Destinations Turn Culture Into Travel Demand
New Venture Responds to Surging Demand for Experience-Driven Travel by Helping Destinations Create Cultural Moments that Drive Visitation, Economic Impact, and Brand Loyalty Wild by G7 is producing the Rendezvous Music Festival The Head and the Heart band performed at a past Rendezvous Music Festival in Jackson, Wyoming Wild by G7 Sizzle NASHVILLE, Tenn. and JACKSON, Wyo., March 24, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- G7 Entertainment Marketing, the experiential and talent booking agency behind campaigns f
Segment: Financing Action on Extreme Heat and Maternal and Newborn Health: The Way Forward
The segment “Financing Action on Extreme Heat and Maternal and Newborn Health: The Way Forward” will examine how innovative and better-aligned financing approaches can respond to these growing risks. Discussions will highlight country experiences in mobilizing domestic resources, opportunities to unlock and scale climate finance, and the role of heat-smart innovations in building resilient health systems. Particular attention will be given to low- and middle-income countries, where exposure and vulnerability remain highest, and where integrated solutions can deliver the greatest impact.
Henderson County launches crisis response program for behavioral health emergencies
In Henderson County, officials say a new program is already working to respond when someone is in crisis, often through a 911 call.
Bird‑like robots promise greater flexibility and control than drones
A bird banking in a crosswind doesn't rely on spinning blades. Its wings flex, twist and respond instantly to its environment. Engineers at Rutgers University have taken a major step toward building bird-like ...