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Bensonwood completes high-performance education center for Beaver Brook Association
Bensonwood, a leader in high-performance offsite construction, has completed the design, fabrication, and installation of the program building at Beaver Brook Association, a conservation and environmental education center in Hollis.
Complete NASCAR Cup points standings after 2026 Talladega spring race
Reddick still remains firmly in control of the championship after the Jack Link's 500, and even extended his advantage to 110 points
Receive Shiny Volcanion When You Complete Your <em>Pokémon Legends: Z-A</em> Pokédexes
Fill up your Pokémon Legends: Z-A Pokédexes to receive a special Volcanion.
Yandy Diaz homers and Rays beat Twins 4-2
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. (AP) Yandy Diaz homered as part of a four-run third inning and the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Minnesota Twins 4-2 on Sunday to complete a three-game series sweep.
Google’s new gradient icons for Gmail, Calendar, Drive, and other apps are radical redesigns
9to5Google can now report on a complete gradient redesign for Gmail and other Google Workspace apps. So far...
Youtility Decision Science: $4.2 Million Raised To Build Behavioral AI Platform For Predicting Customer Decisions
Youtility Decision Science, a behavioral AI company focused on understanding and predicting consumer decision-making, announced that it has completed the second close of its seed funding round, bringing total capital raised to $4.2 million. The round was backed by a consortium of strategic investors, including Silver Falcon Capital, Fyllo, and National Media, along with additional industry investors and family offices.
The Jaire Alexander trade finalized at the 2026 NFL Draft
The Jaire Alexandertrade from the Ravens to the Eagles is complete.
Graphene kills harmful bacteria “superbugs” but spares human cells
Scientists have uncovered how graphene oxide pulls off a remarkable trick: it hunts down and destroys harmful bacteria while leaving human cells completely unharmed. By targeting a molecule found only in bacterial membranes, this ultra-thin carbon-based material acts with laser-like precision—offering a powerful new alternative to traditional antibiotics. Even more exciting, it works against drug-resistant “superbugs,” promotes faster wound healing, and keeps its antibacterial strength even after repeated washing.
Stankoven scores again, Hurricanes complete 4-game sweep of Senators
Logan Stankoven scored his fourth goal in four games, and Frederik Andersen made 25 saves for Carolina.
Detroit Lions complete 2026 NFL Draft picks, finalize class
Here's a look at the Detroit Lions' finalized set of picks from the 2026 NFL Draft class.
Climate Scientists Shake Their Heads as First US City Running Completely Out of Water
Barring a biblical rain storm, the city of Corpus Christi, Texas is poised to run out of water as early as 2027.
From Mother Mary to Foo Fighters: your complete entertainment guide to the week ahead
An idiosyncratic thriller sees Anne Hathaway’s pop icon and Michaela Coel’s fashion designer embark on a psychosexual romance, while Dave Grohl and his boys are back with album number 12
Work begins on UTampa’s new science center
The 153,000-square-foot project should be completed by spring 2029.
Hormel completes sale of whole-bird turkey business to LSI
Hormel continues to own JENNIE-O brand and value-added turkey product portfolio. Melrose facility will now operate as Legacy Turkey.
Hormel Foods Completes Sale of Whole-Bird Turkey Business to Life-Science Innovations
/PRNewswire/ -- Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL), a Fortune 500 global branded food company, today announced it has completed the previously announced sale...
Hormel Foods Completes Sale of Whole-Bird Turkey Business to Life-Science Innovations
/PRNewswire/ -- Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL), a Fortune 500 global branded food company, today announced it has completed the previously announced sale...
Interview transcript: Game File x Xbox's Asha Sharma and Matt Booty
I’m trying something different today: offering all Game File readers a free write-up of a big interview, while also offering the interview transcript to paying readers. If you want to get the essence of my conversation with new Xbox CEO Asha Sharma and Xbox chief content officer Matt Booty, with context around their comments, check out the free piece. If you want more depth, this transcript is for you. I’ve lightly edited the conversation for clarity and flow, but you’ll still get plenty of Sharma and Booty’s thoughts, my questions, and a good sense of how our conversation progressed—complete with follow-ups, some conversational detours, and the best quotes that made it into the free piece.
'Michael' Is An Entertaining, Yet Incomplete, Portrait Of An Icon
With help from the 'Michael' movie cast, Colman Domingo, Nia Long, Jaafar Jackson, and director Antoine Fuqua, here’s our breakdown of the controversial film.
'A completely new reality': Bolder measures are needed to prevent extreme water shortages in cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas that depend on the Colorado River
Cities fed by the Colorado River have taken huge steps to reduce their water consumption over the past few decades, yet water shortages are projected to grow more intense. What can be done?
20th Anniversary iPhone to Feature Custom 'Micro-Curved' OLED Panel
For its 20th-anniversary iPhone, Apple is tapping Samsung to produce a custom micro-curved OLED display that is brighter and thinner than existing panels, according to new supply chain information out of China. Apple is reportedly considering a radical redesign for the 20th-anniversary iPhone that could feature a completely bezel-less display that curves around all four edges of the device.
Eugene Civic Alliance, Kidsports complete $48M campaign for Civic Park sports complex
A years-long effort to turn the former Civic Stadium site into a community sports complex has reached a major milestone in Eugene, with organizers announcing th
Jordyn Tyson injury history: Why ASU WR's lingering health issues could impact draft stock
Here is a complete history of Tyson's injuries during his collegiate career, and how it may affect his draft stock.
Senate takes key step toward funding ICE and border patrol with only GOP votes
With Congress still at a stalemate over how to end the Department of Homeland Security shutdown, Senate Republicans took a key step to tee up a party-line measure funding the most controversial immigration programs — and eventually reopen the government completely.
Bucs Cook named SoCon Track Athlete of the Week
SPARTANBURG, S.C. (WJHL) — Whatever one might define as a sophomore slump, Micailah Cook has done the complete opposite. The second-year sprinter took home SoCon Women’s Track Athlete of the Week for the week ending on April 21, as announced by the league office on Wednesday. This is the second outdoor weekly award for Cook […]
The base model $599 Mac mini is now completely out of stock
The industry-wide supply chain issues continue to hit prospective Apple customers looking to buy new Macs. Today, the base model...
NBC SPORTS ANNOUNCES ITS COMPLETE 2026 WNBA REGULAR-SEASON SCHEDULE ACROSS NBC, PEACOCK, AND NBCSN
Caitlin Clark, A’ja Wilson, Paige Bueckers, Napheesa Collier, Sabrina Ionescu, Angel Reese, Breanna Stewart, and Azzi Fudd Headline Star-Studded Schedule
Ecco the Dolphin: Complete announced, includes remasters of the first two entries and brand-new game
Ecco the Dolphin: Complete announced, including the two original games with new features and improvements plus an all-new entry from the original devs.
Ecco the Dolphin Complete announced, containing the first two games and a new ‘contemporary’ game
The collection’s development is being led by Ecco creator Ed Annunziata…
Ecco The Dolphin: Complete Announced, Includes Remasters & A Brand New Game
Making a splash
ECCO THE DOLPHIN: COMPLETE
/PRNewswire/ -- A&R Atelier today announced Ecco the Dolphin: Complete, a comprehensive new package that takes players on a journey through time and through...
UF Health Shands Children’s Hospital completes $30 million modernization
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Building on its reputation as one of the nation’s highest-rated centers for pediatric care, UF Health Shands Children’s Hospital completed…
DNA reveals a hidden pitviper species in China
A vivid green pitviper hiding in Sichuan’s misty mountains has been revealed as a completely new species. Scientists had overlooked it for decades, assuming it was a common snake—until DNA analysis proved otherwise. Named after Laozi, it features striking differences between males and females, including bold stripes and eye colors. The discovery highlights just how many unknown species may still be lurking in well-studied regions.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
NBA playoffs: CJ McCollum, Hawks erupt in fourth quarter to stun Knicks and even series 1-1
The Knicks, with the chance to go up 2-0, completely fell apart in the fourth quarter on Monday night.
Nova Launcher could soon add a proactive AI assistant that sucks up all your data
Nova Launcher could soon introduce Nova AI, a built-in AI assistant complete with a chatbot, and a new Nova Plus subscription tier. Read on!
Your Samsung phone just got a big upgrade for editing photos, videos, and documents
Samsung's latest Galaxy Enhance-X update brings a completely redesigned interface and new features for editing photos, videos, and documents.
News | British Land takeover of Life Science REIT completes
Move values Life Science REIT at around £150 million
This is the decades-old Gmail trick I still use every day
This small change completely cleans up your inbox
USA Network completes WNBA lineup with veteran sideline reporter
Terrika Foster-Brasby, a veteran sideline reporter, is joining USA Network for its 2026 WNBA coverage, rounding out a star-studded lineup.
From Lee Cronin’s The Mummy to Zayn: your complete entertainment guide to the week ahead
The horror maestro delivers a fresh take on the classic monster schlocker, and the former 1D man is back with a new album of slinky, loved-up R’n’B
A Hahnville freshman 'battled in the circle' to pitch a complete game in her first playoff action
The moment wasn't too big for this Hahnville freshman in her first varsity playoff game.
Complete Guide to Secrets of Strixhaven’s Mystical Archive Bonus Sheet
The plane of Arcavios is the home of the Biblioplex, a huge library that’s said to have all the known spells in the Multiverse. This is what inspired the first Strixhaven Mystical Archive, and for our return to Strixhaven, WotC saw fit to bring it back!
Jet Aviation Plants Own Brand on IFE/CMS
IFX is an in-house-developed product line available for a variety of aircraft
Samsung says Galaxy Z TriFold’s ‘limited run’ is now ‘completely sold out’
Following one last restock earlier this month, Samsung now says that the “limited-run” Galaxy Z TriFold is “completely sold out”...
Stock market today: Indexes hit records after Iran says Hormuz is open
US stocks surged and oil prices plunged after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open," removing a key overhang for markets.
Unlock New Rewards in the Rivals and Rockets
Complete cross-game Quests and Challenges in Rocket League and Fortnite to unlock rewards in both games.
Complete schedule for Carolina Hurricanes first round NHL playoff series with Ottawa
The top-seeded Carolina Hurricanes and wild card Ottawa Senators meet in the first round of the NHL playoffs.
Climate Knowledge Linked to Student Stress
A new study from Quinnipiac University finds that greater awareness of climate change affects students’ mental health—but also drives them to rethink habits and career paths.
Scientists discover natural hormone that reverses obesity
A hormone called FGF21 can reverse obesity in mice by activating a newly identified brain circuit tied to metabolism. Surprisingly, it works in the hindbrain—the same region targeted by GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy—but through a completely different mechanism. Instead of suppressing appetite, FGF21 ramps up the body’s energy burning. This insight could pave the way for more targeted weight-loss and liver disease treatments.
This New Comedy Special Completely Shocked Me—with Joy
After tragically losing his son, Michael Cruz Kayne turned his grief into ‘Sorry for Your Loss’—a transcendent special that will leave you feeling whole.
California Science Center completes construction on new Air and Space Center - Beverly Press & Park Labrea News
As NASA’s Artemis II astronauts circled the moon and moviegoers flocked to theaters to see Ryan Gosling travel...
Replaced Review
Replaced is a gripping and gorgeous 2.5D action platformer, even though this AI-based adventure could do with a system update to completely iron out the bugs.
Traws Pharma Reports Full Year 2025 Results and Provides Business Highlights
Tivoxavir marboxil advancing towards a human influenza challenge trial as a once-monthly prophylactic agent, building on broad preclinical antiviral activity, Ratutrelvir topline Phase 2a data show a differentiated profile versus PAXLOVID® in COVID patients, with good overall safety; final study analysis underway Private financing of up to $60M (with $10M of such amount upfront) offering of common stock and milestone-based and three-year warrants completed on April 15, 2026 supporting operations
Skild AI Acquires Zebra Technologies’ Robotics Automation Business
Skild AI, a fast-rising startup that makes software to help robots learn to complete tasks, has bought the robotics automation division of Zebra Technologies Corp., marking its latest effort to broaden its reach in a hot segment.
Americans stand out internationally for their pessimism about the nation’s political system
People in higher-income countries are generally less likely to say their nation’s political system needs major changes or complete reform. Americans are an exception.
95% of people carry this virus and scientists may have just found how to stop it
Scientists have taken a major step toward stopping Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), an extremely common infection linked to cancer and chronic disease. By using mice engineered with human antibody genes, researchers created powerful human-like antibodies that block the virus from attaching to and entering immune cells. One of these antibodies completely prevented infection in lab models with human immune systems, marking a breakthrough after years of difficulty tackling EBV’s ability to invade nearly all B cells.
Gorgeous Pixel Art Indie Game Arrives Busted On Xbox Series S
Replaced is scoring very well on PC, but the lower-tier Xbox has a game-breaking crash and incomplete ending
Scientists just recreated a rare cosmic reaction never seen before
A breakthrough experiment has shed new light on one of astrophysics’ biggest mysteries: the origin of rare proton-rich elements. For the first time, scientists directly measured a key reaction that creates selenium-74 using a rare isotope beam. The results sharpen models of how these elements form in supernova explosions, cutting uncertainty in half. But the findings also reveal gaps in current theories, hinting that the story isn’t complete yet.
Quenda returns in time to face Arsenal
Sporting winger Geovany Quenda is back and ready to face Premier League opposition again, starting with Arsenal. The 18-year-old missed Sporting's 1-0 first-leg defeat as he completed the final stage of his recovery from a foot injury. Sporting's number seven returned from the bench in Saturday's win over Estrela Amadora and will again be available for Wednesday's tie against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium.
Chagos Islands treaty is now ‘impossible to agree at political level’, UK minister says
Stephen Doughty says US withdrawal of support means bill cannot complete passage through parliament
Construction wraps on California Science Center's building that will house Space Shuttle Endeavour
Mission nearly complete. The California Science Center says construction is finally finished on a building that will house Space Shuttle Endeavour.
Microsoft is working on yet another OpenClaw-like agent
The company has also previously introduced agents that are able to complete tasks, Cowork and Copilot Tasks.
Mercer Health Announces 2026 Sports Physicals for Student Athletes
Mercer Health is now scheduling 2026 sports physicals for area student athletes, offering families convenient access to required pre‑participation exams ahead of the upcoming school year. As part of this year’s program, students who complete their sports physical at a Mercer Health Medical Group location will receive a complimentary t‑shirt, while supplies last. Sports physicals […]
Mercer Health Announces 2026 Sports Physicals for Student Athletes
Mercer Health is now scheduling 2026 sports physicals for area student athletes, offering families convenient access to required pre‑participation exams ahead of the upcoming school year. As part of this year’s program, students who complete their sports physical at a Mercer Health Medical Group location will receive a complimentary t‑shirt, while supplies last. Sports physicals […]
Construction done on Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, to open soon
Construction on the California Science Center's new Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, home to the Endeavour shuttle, is complete.
Construction done on Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, to open soon
Construction on the California Science Center's new Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, home to the Endeavour shuttle, is complete.
2026 WNBA Draft hours away as Azzi Fudd emerges as clear No. 1 pick
With free agency complete, the 2026 WNBA Draft board becomes clearer. Azzi Fudd should go No. 1 overall.
NBA Awards eligibility tracker: Nikola Jokić qualifies in final game of season; complete list of ineligible players
Josh Elander discusses Tennessee's series sweep at Mississippi State
Tennessee baseball completes series sweep at Mississippi State.
Dodgers Announce Lineup For Rangers Sweep Attempt
The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking to go undefeated against the Texas Rangers and complete the regular-season series sweep.
Clorox Purell Deal Reshapes Health And Hygiene Investment Story
Clorox (NYSE:CLX) has completed the acquisition of GOJO Industries, the company behind the Purell brand. The deal brings Purell hand sanitizer and related hygiene products into Clorox's health and hygiene solutions portfolio. The acquisition is intended to support broader global reach and a more comprehensive offering in cleaning and disinfecting products. For you as an investor, this move connects a household cleaning name with a widely recognized hand hygiene brand under one umbrella...
This Action Crime Thriller Just Shot to #1—and the Cast Is Absolutely Loaded
A star-studded crime thriller has quietly climbed to the top of Prime Video’s most-watched list, but, somehow, it flew completely under the radar. Find out more about the chart-topper here.
FULL SHOW: Inside INdiana Business 4/12/26
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Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
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“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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