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Why Your Cat Keeps Walking Away From Their Bowl (And What Science Says to Do About It)
New science reveals why cats lose interest in food and how a simple scent change can bring them back to the bowl.
The ‘Wild West’ of peptides is booming. Here’s what’s real, what’s risky and what’s next
In the early 2020s, interest in GLP-1 weight loss drugs exploded. Now, as we move deeper into the decade, a new buzzword is taking over: peptides.
New disclosures reveal how DOGE actually worked
Depositions offer insight into what Elon Musk’s group was up to. Members describe a club-like atmosphere in which they slashed agencies with little oversight.
Patriots host second quarterback prospect on pre-draft visit
The Patriots are taking an up-close look at Texas A&M QB Behren Morton.
ENTERTAINMENT: Defuria - Los Angeles Business Journal
PACIFIC PARK ON THE SANTA MONICA PIER NAMES TIM DEFURIA AS DIRECTOR OF GOVERNMENT AND COMMUNITY AFFAIR Pacific Park on the Santa Monica Pier announced
U.S. Small Business Administration Offers Relief to Colorado Small Businesses and Private Nonprofits Affected by Drought
The U.S. Small Business Administration announces the availability of low-interest federal disaster loans to offset economic loss caused by drought.
Microsoft Shuts Down Outlook App For Android Users In 6 Weeks
Outlook Lite is no more — here's what you need to do before you lose access to your emails.
TST Images: Lakers defeat Jazz, 131-107, in Los Angeles
LOS ANGELES– The Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Utah Jazz, 131-107, at Crypto Arena on April 12th, 2026 and The Sporting Tribune’s Jessica Cryderman was there to capture the following TST Images.
Winners and losers of NBA's regular-season finales: Bracket breaks nicely for Rockets and Cavaliers
The 2025-26 NBA regular season came to a close on Sunday
Election loss for Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has ripple effects for Trump, US conservatives
The big election over the weekend was in a small European country nearly half a world away from Washington, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has significant reverberations in the United States
Election loss for Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has ripple effects for Trump, US conservatives
The big election over the weekend was in a small European country nearly half a world away from Washington, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has significant reverberations in the United States.
❝Anti-rights groups: why we need a smarter politics of naming
As movements working to undermine universal human rights protections become more influential, the language used to call out these “anti-rights” groups also needs closer scrutiny, or else risks being self-defeating, writes Nicolas Agostini, human rights advocate and researcher.
Zohran Mamdani touted socialist philosophy of 'pothole politics' while reviewing first 100 days as mayor
"I was elected as a Democratic socialist," he said in a speech on his first 100 days as mayor. "And I will govern as a Democratic socialist."
Barron Trump’s beverage brand unveils first flavors ahead of launch
Barron Trump-linked beverage startup SOLLOS is teasing its first yerba mate flavors and packaging as the company builds momentum ahead of its planned May 2026 launch.
Join Marshmello and Alison Wonderland at Pokémon Night Out in Fall 2026
Celebrate Pokémon with Marshmello and Alison Wonderland during Pokémon Night Out events in Los Angeles and London.
Black hole wakes after 100 million years and erupts like a cosmic volcano
A colossal “cosmic volcano” has erupted in deep space, as a supermassive black hole in galaxy J1007+3540 roars back to life after nearly 100 million years of silence. Astronomers captured stunning radio images showing fresh jets blasting outward while crashing into the intense pressure of a surrounding galaxy cluster, creating a chaotic, distorted structure stretching nearly a million light-years.
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Laura Gersony on the SRP election and Turning Point's impact
Arizona Republic reporter Laura Gersony joins us to talk about the SRP election, and why it was a loss for Turning Point USA. Then Dennis and Colin talk about the President’s threat to end a civilization and Melania Trump's Epstein-focused press conference.
Dodgers Have Chance to Break 142-Year-Old MLB Record
The Los Angeles Dodgers have gotten off to a great start in 2026, and their run differential definitely reflects that.
New Cold Case Task Force spotlights growing role of private forensic labs
The same DNA science being used to bring closure to families in long-unsolved cases is also increasingly being used as a frontline investigative tool.
Health Issues Linked to Obesity Differ Between Men and Women
Women and men with obesity have different health issues, which should be taken into account when suggesting treatments or interventions.
Brewers expecting 'bad news' after losing Christian Yelich to hamstring injury, dropping 5th straight in sweep by Nationals
Andrew Abbott discusses Reds loss to Angels
Reds starter Andrew Abbott went three-plus innings in the Reds' 9-6 loss to the Angels on April 12.
Brewers lose Christian Yelich to hamstring injury vs. Nationals
Christian Yelich was off to a strong start at the plate this season before leaving Sunday's game early.
One breath at a time | IU Health trying to close the gap for respiratory therapists
UCLA Gets $33M Grant for Youth Mental Health Training
UCLA received $33 million from Ballmer Group to expand youth mental health workforce training in Los Angeles County, aiming to produce 2,600 new graduates by 2031.
LA Leaders Create Foundation to Fight $50M Health Cuts
Los Angeles community leaders launched The Fund for Advancing Public Health LA to offset $50 million in LA County public health budget cuts affecting clinics.
The thriving and lucrative business of antisemitism
Today’s trendy, provocative, and libelous claims against Jews have replaced the entertainment of the Roman Colosseum, where Christians were thrown to the lions for sport.
Polling stations close in pivotal Hungary election that could unseat long-time Prime Minister Orbán
Hungarians cast ballots Sunday in Europe's most consequential election this year, setting a record turnout in a vote that could unseat populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power.
The Los Angeles Times' top 25 high school baseball rankings
A look at the top 25 high school baseball teams in the Southland after the eighth week of the season.
Weekly Briefing: Israel is losing its grip on U.S. politics
Support for Israel is collapsing in U.S. politics. The Iran war has fractured the MAGA base, military aid has become a Democratic litmus test, and AIPAC is losing primaries.
News Analysis: Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade risks clash with China
It is a high-stakes moment ahead of a closely watched summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next month.
Nebraska baseball loses series 2-1 on the road against Oregon
No. 19 Nebraska baseball (27-9, 12-3) hit the road and lost a Big Ten series to Oregon (25-10, 9-5), dropping two games in the weekend outing. The series was highlighted by a lightning delay Friday night, three Case Sanderson home runs and a close rubber match on Sunday.
Polls close in high-stakes Hungarian election as Magyar seeks to oust Orbán
Polls closed with a record-high turnout in Hungary’s crucial general election, with a freshly released survey suggesting Péter Magyar’s insurgent opposition is set to beat...
Dodgers Announce Lineup For Rangers Sweep Attempt
The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking to go undefeated against the Texas Rangers and complete the regular-season series sweep.
Sparks trade forward Jackson to the Sky for guard Atkins
LOS ANGELES -- It had been rumbling for days now but this was still a surprise when first mentioned.
From LLMs to hallucinations, here's a simple guide to common AI terms
The rise of AI has brought an avalanche of new terms and slang. Here is a glossary with definitions of some of the most important words and phrases you might encounter.
Inside the $350 million missile silo that could become a data center
Tech firms are turning missile silos and abandoned mines into secure data centers as Americans flock to survival camps amid rising fears of world war.
Close of polls nears in Hungary's most crucial election in decades
As record numbers of Hungarians head to the polls, the EU is preparing for two scenarios: continued obstruction under Orbán or a victory for Magyar that could reset relations, though Brussels remains cautious about both.
Why Trump is threatening to blockade a strait that Iran is already blockading
President Donald Trump is threatening to close off the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial waterway that he has repeatedly told Iran must be reopened unconditionally.
Illinois Court Hears Final Lawsuit Challenging Marijuana Social Equity Business Licensing Lottery
“We just want a fair shot. We’re not asking for anything special, no special privileges, but what they promised from the very beginning.” By Hannah Meisel, Capitol News Illinois Nearly seven years after Illinois lawmakers approved recreational cannabis legalization, applicants who lost out on coveted business licenses are still battling the state in court, alleging […]
2026 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 14
The Cubs come from behind, only to lose 4-3 in extra innings.
This RNA Almost Self-Replicates, Which Could Explain Life's Origins
We're so close to understanding.
Why Ozempic doesn’t work for everyone: Scientists just found a hidden reason
A new study reveals that popular diabetes and weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy may not work as effectively for about 10% of people due to specific genetic variants. These individuals appear to have a puzzling condition called “GLP-1 resistance,” where their bodies produce higher levels of the hormone targeted by these drugs—but don’t respond to it properly.
FULL SHOW: Inside INdiana Business 4/12/26
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We’re losing 338 spoken words every day | BBC Science Focus Magazine
We've been nattering less and less each year since 2005, according to research on more than 2,000 people across three continents
Donald Trump's Incompetence Is Costing Him the Country: Commentary
Donald Trump has led us to chaos — war with Iran, spiking gas prices, unstable markets — that may lose him the Republican party and the nation.
Analysis: Trump says he always wins, and the Iran war is the latest example
In an analysis of how Donald Trump treats almost every setback as a win and repeats it until many people doubt the loss, Associated Press writer Will Weissert cites the war with Iran as one of the latest examples.
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics
Florida got some good news on hurricane season, while long shot gubernatorial candidates are continuing to look out of their element.
Sutton's predictions: Sunderland v Tottenham
What's Roberto de Zerbi going to do with Tottenham and how will he set them up? The whole situation is just odd, with De Zerbi securing a five-year contract despite only hanging around for more than two years at one of his previous eight clubs. Sunderland's form at the Stadium of Light has dipped a bit since they lost their unbeaten home record against Liverpool in February, but the Black Cats will be buoyant after beating Newcastle last time out.
Kawhi Leonard status for Warriors game emerges after ankle development
Once a dark horse contender, Los Angeles faces turbulence as Kawhi Leonard’s health and headlines cloud their playoff hopes.
Africa is losing health workers when it can least afford to – a pattern rooted in colonial history
Health workers consistently move from poorer countries to richer ones, a pattern that tracks closely along lines drawn by colonial history.
SDFC's winless run extended, downed 2-1 by Minnesota United
San Diego FC’s winless streak continues to grow, falling in back-to-back matches after a 2-1 Saturday night loss to Minnesota United FC at Snapdragon Stadium.
UFC 327 live blog: Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg
Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg battle for a vacant UFC title in UFC 327 main event
'It was a cry for help' | Family mourns father killed in police shooting, says he struggled with mental health
The man's family asked that his identity, as well as their own, not be disclosed because they have not yet notified all of his extended family about what happened.
See How the Brewers Suffered Another Loss
The Milwaukee Brewers' skid has extended to four games, and a common theme continues to plague them.
Helene recovery continues as Asheville businesses reopen 18 months later
Many businesses are still rebuilding after Helene, with a few of them having their reopenings this week."Today is the culmination of a year and a half of really
Warriors face Clippers, knowing rematch may occur soon after
The Golden State Warriors could have a hand in their play-in opponent when they wrap up the NBA regular season on the road Sunday night against one of the possibilities, the Los Angeles Clippers.
Hidden weak spots in HIV and Ebola revealed with breakthrough nanodisc technology
A new nanodisc-based platform lets scientists study viral proteins in a form that closely mimics real viruses, revealing how antibodies truly recognize them. This approach uncovered hidden interactions in viruses like HIV and Ebola that traditional methods missed. By recreating the virus’s membrane environment, researchers can better understand how immune defenses work. The technique could speed up the development of more effective vaccines.
South Carolina sweeps Mizzou in battle of SEC bottom dwellers
The Tigers put up a two-out ninth inning rally, but they fell short in their 6-4 loss to the Gamecocks on Saturday.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
RDC Hosts Free Business Booster Workshop And Intensive Networking Lunch April 14 At SALA
Visit the post for more.
L.A. Times readers celebrate UCLA women's basketball's title win
Times readers cheer UCLA coach Cori Close and players Gabriela Jaquez, Kiki Rice, Lauren Betts, Gianne Kneepkens, Angela Dugalic and Charlisse Leger-Walker.
Newly discovered fossil challenges idea of ape origins in east Africa
The remains, discovered in 2023 and 2024, are incomplete, and made up of only a few jawbone fragments and worn teeth.
Record-breaking Bayern march closer to Bundesliga title
Bayern Munich romped to a 5-0 win at St Pauli on Saturday, breaking a 54-year Bundesliga goalscoring record and moving to within touching distance of a 35th league crown. The goal continued the 19-year-old's impressive debut Bundesliga season, in which he has scored 11 times.
Salah, Ngumoha ease Liverpool crisis with Fulham win
Liverpool's rising star and departing legend combined to ease the pressure on Arne Slot as goals from teenager Rio Ngumoha and Mohamed Salah beat Fulham 2-0, snapping the Reds' three-game losing streak on Saturday.Salah failed to get on the pitch at all during Liverpool's chastening 2-0 Champions League defeat by Paris Saint-Germain in midweek.
Assessing Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation As Investors Revisit The Stock’s Recent Performance
Why Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is on investors’ radar Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has drawn attention after recent share price moves, with a 1 day gain of about 1.7% contrasting with a loss of roughly 7.5% over the past month. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. That short term 1 day and 7 day share price strength sits against a 30 day share price return of about an 8% decline, a 90 day gain of 9.1% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 6.1%. Longer term total shareholder...
Pistons, Pacers close regular season in opposite positions
With the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference already locked up, the Detroit Pistons visiting the Indiana Pacers on Sunday in Indianapolis with an opportunity to complete a 60-win regular season for the first time in 20 years.
Fox News Entertainment Newsletter: Kelly Ripa’s secret signal, ‘Charlie’s Angels’ star on price of fame
The Fox News Entertainment Newsletter brings you the latest Hollywood headlines, celebrity interviews and stories from Los Angeles and beyond.
Fox News Entertainment Newsletter: Kelly Ripa's secret signal, 'Charlie's Angels' star on price of fame
The Fox News Entertainment Newsletter brings you the latest Hollywood headlines, celebrity interviews and stories from Los Angeles and beyond.
I changed my embarrassing Gmail username without losing anything, and you can too
Google now lets Gmail users switch to a new address while keeping the old one as an alias — here's how!
Maui Health announces CEO transition as Fulton announces departure to be closer to family
Maui Health announced today that chief executive officer Lynn Fulton will step down effective May 3, 2026, to return to central Illinois to be closer to her family. A leadership transition plan will be shared in the coming days.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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