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Ogden Raptors add new broadcast voice with familiar pedigree
The Ogden Raptors are adding a new voice to the broadcast booth for the 2026 season. The team announced the hire of Arden Louchheim as an additional announcer for play by play and color commentary. Louchheim is finishing up both her sports media degree and her women’s golf career at the University of Nebraska but […]
It's Your Business has Linda Gwaltney and Emersen Frazier Freeman
News about the latest hires, retirements and more in the Topeka area.
New Jersey Devils Hit Home Run With Sunny Mehta Hire
The New Jersey Devils have entered the “Mehtaverse” after hiring Sunny Mehta as the team’s new general manager. The former Florida Panthers assistant GM now gets his first crack as the head man in charge. It’s also a homecoming for Mehta, who grew up in Wycoff, NJ, and was the team’s head of analytics […] The post New Jersey Devils Hit Home Run With Sunny Mehta Hire appeared first on The Lead.
Berkshire Hathaway’s Big Utility Business Could Be Worth Close to $100 Billion
It would probably be a top five utility in the country by market value if it were publicly traded.
Promotions & New Hires at Sphere Entertainment, Columbia/RCA & More
Promotions and new hires this week took place at Sphere Entertainment, Columbia/RCA records and more.
Walmart to remodel nine NH stores; add pharmacy in Keene
Walmart plans to remodel nine stores in New Hampshire this year and open a new pharmacy in Keene, the company announced Thursday.
Devils hire ex-Panthers executive Sunny Mehta as general manager
The New Jersey Devils have hired Sunny Mehta as their general manager, bringing back their former director of analytics to oversee their hockey operations department. Owner David Blitzer announced the hire Thursday night, less than 48 hours after the team’s regular season ended without a playoff appearance. Mehta was an assistant when the Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup back to back each of the past two years.
Can we trust the science shaping our lives?
Improved methods for social and behavioral sciences research could help enhance public trust in science, says a new study that investigated the robustness of data analysis to understand whether it reliably ...
Kennedy Says US Health Agency Has 72,000 Staff, up From 62,000 After DOGE Cuts
WASHINGTON, April 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on Thursday his department now has 72,000 employees and is looking to hire 12,000 more to make up for cuts led by the Department of Government Efficiency. The department had ...
New study finds 12- to 17-year-olds willing to engage in democracy, but feel anxious, unheard, distrustful of politics
A major new U.K. study of 12- to 17-year-olds finds that, while most adolescents say they would vote and are interested in politics, their willingness to engage is linked to their anxiety about the future, ...
Bears post 60% increase in income to £40m in 2025
Warwickshire report a pre-tax profit of £11m for 2025 including a 60% yearly increase in income to £40m.
Spectrum Science hires MSL’s chief client officer to lead comms offering
Lisa Talbot started in the role last month.
Thinking Machines Lab loses another founding member to Meta
Meta has hired another founding engineer from Thinking Machines Lab as the AI talent wars intensify. The startup is still rapidly expanding.
Thinking Machines Lab loses another founding member to Meta
Meta has hired another founding engineer from Thinking Machines Lab as the AI talent wars intensify. The startup is still rapidly expanding.
Scientists solve 100-year-old mystery behind rubber that powers modern life
Every time you drive, board a plane or water your lawn, you're relying on a material that has quietly powered modern life for nearly a century—reinforced rubber. It's in car and aircraft tires, industrial ...
UCF receives $50 million from business alum, largest gift in school history
Barry Miller’s gift will help the business college hire new faculty members in fields such as artificial intelligence and cyber security.
How Latino business owners are navigating growth, AI and inflation
Latino-owned businesses in the U.S. continue to overcome funding challenges to pursue expansion and innovation—through strategies such as scaling internationally, acquisitions, and investing in artificial ...
New model helps investors and regulators understand complex businesses and see their positive sides
Warren Buffett advised that you should never invest in a business you can't understand. But that hasn't stopped many investors. New research from the McCombs School of Business at The University of Texas ...
What’s the allergy forecast? Cloudy, with a good chance of pollen
Over the next few weeks, New Hampshire residents can expect to see yellowish dust coat sidewalks, cars and the insides of windowsills. Peak tree pollen season begins in April, followed
Study finds no link between medical gender reassignment and improved mental health among young people
An extensive register-based study conducted in Finland has found an increase in severe mental health problems among some adolescents and young adults who have undergone medical gender reassignment (GR). ...
Using atomic nuclei could allow scientists to read time more precisely than ever
Most clocks, from wristwatches to the systems that run GPS and the internet, work by tracking regular, repeating motions.
Why onetime MA Sen. Scott Brown thinks he’s the Republican to flip New Hampshire’s open Senate seat
Roundup: Here's What The Critics Think Of Mouse: P.I. For Hire Ahead Of Its Xbox Launch
Up for some classic cartoon shootin'?
GLP-1 medicine improves liver health independent of weight loss, study finds
Researchers at Toronto's Sinai Health have found that semaglutide—the active ingredient in popular weight loss drugs that mimic the gut hormone GLP-1—acts directly on a subset of liver cells to improve ...
Lawsuit alleges Dartmouth Health fired executive for raising safety concerns
A former high-ranking executive at Dartmouth Health in Lebanon is alleging “unlawful and retaliatory termination” by CEO Joanne Conroy in a lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court of New Hampshire.
De La Salle’s new football coach arrives with championship credentials. 'He was the best fit.'
Chad Mahaffey knows what De La Salle looks like at its best — and now he’s been hired to get it back there.
Grasp Hires Chevalier as New Chief Executive
Grasp Technologies has appointed Maria Chevalier as CEO, succeeding Chris Wilson. Chevalier, a former corporate travel buyer, has extensive experience in travel management and previously served on Grasp's board. Her goals include focusing on innovation and client-centric strategies.
TPG Agrees to Buy Learfield in Deal Worth Roughly $2 Billion
Learfield’s majority owners—Charlesbank Capital Partners and funds managed by Fortress Investment Group—hired two banks in the fall to explore a sale.
From curiosity to conservation: How citizen science is teaching children and adults to see, experience nature
It often starts with something small, such as a new bird in a branch, a vibrant butterfly in a yard, a colorful plant growing through a crack in the sidewalk, or as part of a lawn. Suddenly, you are engaged ...
BUSINESS MONDAY: Spotlight on Konkapot Tree and Timber in Ashley Falls
The full-service operation provides sustainable forest management, custom sawmilling, lumber production, firewood, and tree services.
Business Briefs April 13, 2025: Business news in the Berkshires and beyond
In light of current events, Greylock’s leadership recognized the importance of awarding funds to organizations dedicated to providing human services.
NH Food Bank unveils new brand and strategic vision
The New Hampshire Food Bank, a program of Catholic Charities New Hampshire, has launched a new brand and strategic vision, including a new logo, mission statement and vision statement. The
From Jurassic Park to dreams of AI doom, pop culture shapes science more than we like to admit
The relationship between science and pop culture often looks like a one-way street: scientific discoveries inspire films, television and novels, particularly in science fiction. But the relationship really ...
End of an era at Apple as Tim Cook’s hopeful hire from Google leaves the company
Apple CEO Tim Cook's hopeful AI hire from Google will be leaving the company this coming week.
North Tahoe Chamber selects Cory Hunt as its new Business Development Manager
KINGS BEACH, Calif. – The North Tahoe Chamber announced that Cory Hunt has been hired as its new Business Development Manager. Responsible for cultivating opportunities for new and emerging businesses in North Tahoe, Hunt will...
Shropshire sports charity's £510k award to get people moving
The funding will be used to support people who "face the greatest barriers to being active".
NH's Business: NH labor force participation
Fred Kocher sits down with Jessica Williams with the NH Fiscal Policy Institute to talk about data from the 2025 labor force participation in New Hampshire.
Business Notes for April 12, 2026
The Gazette’s Business Notes is a compendium of the week’s promotions, new hires, certifications, added business lines and business events.
Entergy adds executives; new nonprofit CEO named, board additions at sports foundation
Take a look at some of the recent promotions and new hires announced at south Louisiana businesses.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting to face questions on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg
This week, Victoria Derbyshire is stepping in for Laura Kuenssberg. Tory MP James Cartlidge and Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey will also be on the show.
Tri-state people in business: New hires, promotions, recognitions
Elvis Kasi joined Medical Associates Clinic of Dubuque’s anesthesia department as a certified nurse practitioner.
Why Bill Moos is fed up with major college sports
Bill Moos, former player, coach and athletic director of some of the country’s past and present powerhouses, has seen the future of college athletics and is glad he retired to 63 acres near Spokane.
An AI launched this retail store and hired employees on its own
Andon Labs let an AI loose with $100,000 to start a small store in San Francisco.
The Dirt: Frontier Behavioral Health planning new Spokane location
The longstanding location of Spokane Roofing Company will soon become a Frontier Behavioral Health location, according to a construction permit application submitted to the city of Spokane.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Ravens add Dr. Nic Gill for outside perspective on sports performance
The Baltimore Ravens hired Dr. Nic Gill as VP of Health & Performance, bringing an 'outside perspective' to the team.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Microbial hockey: Scientists discover how bacteria rotate tiny pucks
At the Institute of Science and Technology Austria (ISTA), Jérémie Palacci's research group is venturing into metallurgy—albeit with a twist. Instead of traditional tools, the scientists use E. coli bacteria, ...
Why Warren Buffett Believes Book Value Cannot Capture a Business's Real Worth
With Berkshire Hathaway's book value per share over- or under-estimating the true value of its businesses, Warren Buffett prefers alternatives to this accounting metric.
Climate change is outpacing evolution. Scientists are using DNA to catch up
Evolution works over millennia. Climate change is moving far faster. That mismatch is killing some of the planet's most vital ecosystems, from California's towering redwoods to the seagrass meadows along ...
Sports dealmaking drives legal hires
Private capital is flooding into sports and law firms are hiring to keep up.
Weekend Pulse 4/10-4/12
Live music, circus performances, film screenings and fundraisers highlight a busy April weekend across southwestern New Hampshire and southern Vermont.
Pittsfield Health Shuts Down North Street Eatery for 'Pests'
Closed sign on Iztac's front door. PITTSFIELD, Mass. — Iztac Mexican Restaurant is currently shut down by the Health Department. A hearing at the Board of...
Chinese business ‘hired lobbying firm with ties to Donald Trump Jnr’
Lobbying firm Checkmate helped China’s Grand Pharmaceutical Group beat a US national security challenge, public filings show.
Matt Maurer
Fortune Brands Innovations has hired Matt Maurer as its Outdoors GM, B2C.
Chinese business hired lobbyist with ties to Don Jr, then scored a win
A lobbying firm led by one of Donald Trump Jr.'s hunting buddies helped a Chinese company make its case to a U.S. national security watchdog.
A smarter way to build vaccines: Scientists harness AI to target emerging alphaviruses
A team of scientists at The University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB), led by Nikos Vasilakis, Ph.D., and Peter McCaffrey, MD, has developed a new computational pipeline that could dramatically accelerate ...
As Trump throws lifeline to coal plants, critics warn of higher costs and health risks
The United States is undergoing a dramatic shift in energy policy as President Donald Trump wields government's sweeping powers to benefit coal and suppress cleaner alternatives. It could lead to more expensive electricity and dirtier air.
UCI Health rehires critical care workers it laid off in March
UCI Health has rescinded the layoffs of seven of the 150 workers laid off last month as part of a restructuring of its hospitals across Orange County — and apologized” for the “oversight.”
Isabella Lourie Joins Marist’s Sports Medicine Department
Red Foxes' Newest Hire Will Serve as Head Football Athletic Trainer & Work with Water Polo
Exclusive: Chinese firm hired lobbyists with ties to Don Jr, then scored a win in Washington
A lobbying firm led by one of Donald Trump Jr.'s hunting buddies helped a Chinese company make its case to a U.S. national security watchdog against a U.S. startup that was seeking to have the Chinese firm removed as one of its investors, public filings show.
Leaders Across Sports, Business and Higher Education Affirm the Value of Academics in College Football
IRVING, Texas (April 9, 2026) – As the National Football Foundation marks 20 years of the NFF Hampshire Honor Society and a record-setting 2026 class, leaders from the highest levels of sports, business and higher education are praising the organization's role in elevating academic achievement as a core part of the game. Their perspectives reinforce the Foundation's long-standing commitment to ensuring education remains central to the student-athlete experience.
Leaders Across Sports, Business and Higher Education Affirm the Value of Academics in College Football
IRVING, Texas (April 9, 2026) – As the National Football Foundation marks 20 years of the NFF Hampshire Honor Society and a record-setting 2026 class, leaders from the highest levels of sports, business and higher education are praising the organization's role in elevating academic achievement as a core part of the game. Their perspectives reinforce the Foundation's long-standing commitment to ensuring education remains central to the student-athlete experience.
Coös County health center CEO says new rural health funds not enough to counteract Medicaid cuts
Edward Shanshala, CEO of Ammonoosuc Community Health Services, said when Congress passed its massive tax cuts and spending law last year, he and his colleagues made the difficult decision to shut down the organization’s clinic in Franconia in anticipation of the law’s impacts. Shanshala doesn’t think a new tranche of federal funding will be enough […]
NYC bill would force Amazon to hire thousands of local delivery workers — sending customer bills soaring
Social support, sleep and pain management linked to mental health in later life
Older Canadians who are socially connected, physically healthy, and spiritually engaged are significantly more likely to experience complete mental health, according to a new nationally representative ...
Shropshire new children's mental health service to tackle delays
The three year programme hopes to provide easier access, earlier support and more joined-up care.
University, UNC Health unveil SHIRE health care innovation platform
The Secure Health Informatics Research Environment will speed up the responsible use of artificial intelligence with clinical data.
Hologic hires former Baxter International chief as next CEO
José E. Almeida is taking over the top role at the Massachusetts-based breast imaging vendor, replacing retiring longtime leader Steve MacMillan.
Mayor Mamdani appoints 'mom and pop czar' to reduce red tape for NYC small business owners
Delia Awusi was hired to reduce the runaround mom and pop small businesses often face in dealing with permits, inspections and fines.
Work begins on major expansion of Cambridgeshire science campus
It will cover an area two and a half times its current size, with new laboratories and homes.
Public trust in AI in health care is slipping, survey finds
Artificial intelligence seems to be everywhere—in our jobs, in our homes and at the doctor's office. While the use of AI grows, a new survey commissioned by The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center ...
US sexual health report card: High pleasure, low testing, stark gender disparities
A new sexual health survey reveals a mix of progress and persistent gaps. Overall, many Americans report positive experiences—interest in having sex, sexual pleasure, and good communication with partners—yet ...
NBC 5 hires former Sun-Times film critic Richard Roeper as entertainment reporter
One year after taking a buyout and leaving the Chicago Sun-Times, longtime film and TV critic Richard Roeper has landed a new media home at NBC 5 Chicago.
North Carolina to reportedly hire former Nuggets coach Michael Malone as Hubert Davis' replacement
Malone won an NBA championship with the Denver Nuggets during the 2022-23 season.
North Carolina to hire Michael Malone as next basketball coach: Led Nuggets to NBA title in 2022-23
The Tar Heels have landed an unexpected hire as their next coach
String of deadly police shootings raising questions about mental health and law enforcement
There are five deadly police shootings under investigation in Massachusetts and New Hampshire, including calls tied to mental health crises.
Recent string of police shootings puts mental health in focus
From Boston to New Hampshire, a series of deadly police shootings has left five people dead in just a few weeks. Some of those encounters began as mental health calls… all are now under investigation.
Colliers in NH and Maine recognize award winners for 2025
Colliers, a global leader in commercial real estate services, is pleased to announce its 2025 award winners in the Colliers New Hampshire and Maine offices.
Islanders fire coach Patrick Roy with 4 games remaining before playoffs, hire Peter DeBoer to replace him
The Islanders are making a coaching change while hanging onto the No. 7 seed in the NHL's Eastern Conference.
The revolution in dinosaur science started 50 years ago—here's what we have learned
The study of dinosaurs has been through a revolution in recent decades. The story began half a century ago, when Robert McNeill Alexander, a professor of zoology at the University of Leeds, showed how ...
Mental health program underway at Linn County Jail
Linn County’s jail mental health diversion program gets underway, hires leader
Senate staffer joins law firm; coffee company names new CCO; reunion for banker
Take a look at some of the recent promotions and new hires announced at south Louisiana businesses.
Tri-state people in business: New hires, promotions, recognitions
Cottingham & Butler, of Dubuque, announced the following new hires:
Democrats eye 2028 for bigger health care push
WASHINGTON – As Democrats vie to take control of Congress in the midterms this fall, their main message on health care policy is fairly straightforward: undo Republicans’ Medicaid cuts and restore the health care subsidies that lapsed at the end of last year.
Golden Knights make the Pacific Division much more interesting
When the Vegas Golden Knights hired John Tortorella amidst a challenging stretch of play, many fans and pundits expressed curiosity and a dash of skepticism about if the change was going to awaken the sleeping giant.
Commentary: When stars’ plastic surgery is played for your entertainment
Often when I’m scrolling through Instagram, hypnotized by the stream of videos, an actress’ face will cut through the noise. This isn’t a typical clip from a press junket or red carpet. Instead, it will feature side-by-side images of the star, one younger and one more recent. Then a content creator – perhaps a doctor or an aesthetician, sometimes wearing scrubs – will walk me through what cosmetic procedures they think the actress has had. (It’s much rarer that men get this kind of analysis.)
'My head feels clearer': How citizen science can improve people's health
The two of us can often be found in a patch of scrubby bushland, phone in hand, slowly scanning for plants. Or crouched behind a tree trunk with binoculars, pausing mid-breath to find the source of a ...
‘Bob’s Burgers’ Star Eugene Mirman Shares Health Update After Fiery Crash
The governor of New Hampshire and a member of her security detail swung into action at the scene after Mirman became trapped in the burning car.
NFC executive rips New York Giants offseason moves
As the NFL heads toward the 2026 NFL Draft, teams are reviewing their roster plans and finalizing their draft boards. Many teams have added fresh talent and new faces in key leadership positions. The New York Giants hired a new…
The Blue Flame offers entertainment spot for UNH students despite age policy change
The independent student newspaper of New Hampshire University since 1911.
It's Your Business has Dené Mosier, Jennifer Sourk, Christina Noland
News about the latest hires, retirements and more in the Topeka area.
Nashua health officials search for homeless man with tuberculosis
A New Hampshire judge is ordering a homeless man with active tuberculosis to isolate or be arrested.
Agency Brief—Terri & Sandy continues leadership revamp with Martin hire
This week, we’ve got an exclusive on Terri & Sandy’s C-suite hire, and we dive into Publicis Groupe’s continued push into sports.
Lynx bring back Janel McCarville as assistant coach
The Minnesota Lynx are bringing back former WNBA champion Janel McCarville as an assistant coach for the upcoming season. The team announced several additions to the team’s operations and coaching staff on Thursday. McCarville returns to Minnesota, where she was part of the Lynx 2013 championship team, as well as a star for the Gophers. Minnesota also hired Jasmine Allen as basketball ...
Acting CHA leader tells staff it’s business as usual, defying Johnson’s attempt to block CEO hire
Matthew Brewer's insistence to move ahead despite the mayor efforts to remove him makes it clear Johnson will have to pursue legal action or otherwise convince a supermajority of the CHA’s board to reverse course.
Migration can influence cardiovascular risk profiles, study shows
A new study shows that migration from Mexico to the United States can influence cardiovascular risk profiles. The study's findings are important for clinicians who serve immigrant populations and who ...
Sunrisers beat KKR for first win of this year's IPL
Sunrisers Hyderabad earned their first win of this year's Indian Premier League by comfortably beating Kolkata Knight Riders by 65 runs at Eden Gardens. Travis Head and Abhishek Sharma put on 82 for the first wicket in just 5.4 overs and even though Australia's Head fell for 46 and India opener Abhishek 48, the visitors still posted 226-8 with South Africa's Heinrich Klaasen adding 52 from 35 balls. Gloucestershire left-armer David Payne conceded 25 from the first over of the chase as New Zealand opener Finn Allen flogged three fours and two sixes but the innings soon fell away.