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Trump's ties to Erdogan sold him on this year's NATO summit. Turkey may win big in other ways
U.S. President Donald Trump has berated and belittled many of the European leaders expected to attend next week’s NATO summit in Turkey but has only praise for its host, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
The European sports host with the most - Live Updates
Switzerland is home to many international sporting organizations — and a pile of upcoming big events.
Europe’s Health Systems Face a Heat Test
New WHO guidance highlights how extreme heat is straining hospitals, with practical measures now shaping safer care environments across Europe.
NATO tensions push Europe to chart a path past Washington
Ahead of a major NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey next week, strain on the alliance is pushing European lawmakers toward a new posture—one that is less reliant on Washington.
Why you should wash new clothes before wearing; signs that you are aging well; effective leadership in health care; plus other stories with Vanderbilt Health sources
Jami Miller, MD, Professor of Clinical Dermatology, and David Gaston, MD, PhD, Assistant Professor of Pathology, Microbiology and Immunology, are quoted in a Southern Living piece about the importance of washing new clothes before wearing them. Dyes, chemicals, mold and bacteria are all potential troublemakers lurking around your new duds. Parul Goyal, MBBS, Associate Professor of Clinical Medicine, was quoted in a Huff Post story outlining signs that you are aging well. Tae Kon Kim, MD, PhD, Assistant Professor of Medicine, was interviewed by Healio for a story headlined, “Effective leadership in health care ‘starts with listening.’” AAMC News reporter Patrick Boyle interviewed Wes Ely, MD, Professor of Medicine and Critical Care, for a story about ICU delirium. PharmaVoice reporter Kelly Bilodeau interviewed Romney Humphries, PhD, Vice Chair and Executive Medical Director, Clinical Services, for a story about the CDC’s new data that shows an alarming increase in the prevalence of a gene that can make “nightmare bacteria” significantly harder to treat. American Community Media interviewed William Schaffner, MD, Professor of Preventive Medicine, for a piece about Ebola that was reused by several media outlets around the U.S., including The Mississippi Link. Stacie Dusetzina, PhD, Professor of Health Policy, was quoted by The Independent in a story about how Medicare will soon cover weight-loss drugs. Courtney Schadt, MD, Associate Professor of Dermatology, was interviewed by Tennessean reporter Beth Warren, about tanning safety and tanning fads circulating social media. WKRN News 2 interviewed Amanda Peltier, MD, Professor of Neurology, about the correlation between head trauma and ALS following the diagnosis of former Titans running back Chris Johnson.
Could your gut bacteria really slow Alzheimer’s? Scientists reveal a surprising link - Futura-Sciences
European researchers previously demonstrated that transferring stool samples from human Alzheimer’s patients into healthy rats triggered symptoms like spatial memory issues. Other models show that altering gut microbes changes the buildup of amyloid plaques and tau proteins, the two main hallmarks of the disease. Scientists have even found that certain...
Businesses on the move in Marin and Sonoma counties: July 2 report
Check out which companies are leasing and buying office, retail, industrial and residential development properties in Sonoma and Marin counties via the following deals.
Elden Ring Tarnished Pack DLC will cost 4.99 Euros
Bandai Namco details how to get new Elden Ring classes, weapons, and Torrent skin customizations on PS5, PC, and Xbox.
Heat Wave Caused Some 480 Excess Deaths in Netherlands, Health Authorities Say
AMSTERDAM, July 2 (Reuters) - Last week's unprecedented heat wave led to around 480 excess deaths in the Netherlands, Dutch health authorities said on Thursday. • Excess deaths in the week from June 22 to 28 were mainly among people aged 80 years and older. • Most were reported in the ...
EMA steps up efforts on medicines for women’s health
Initiatives to map gaps, challenges and prioritise further actions
German Prosecutors Charge Ukrainian Suspect Over Nord Stream Explosions
The Nord Stream explosions remain among the most politically sensitive investigations in Europe, given their impact on EU energy security.
Facing Barbs and Pressure From Trump, Europe's Leaders Close Ranks
ROME (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump’s attacks on Italy’s premier have had an unintended consequence. After Trump questioned Italy’s reliability as a wartime ally and claimed Giorgia Meloni had groveled for his attention, European leaders rallied to Meloni's side, thawing what had been a frosty ...
UC Davis to Set Standard for Measuring Airborne Nanoplastic Health Risks
UC Davis researchers have received a nearly $4 million grant NIEH to develop the world’s first standardized method for measuring and describing the neurotoxicity of airborne nanoplastics.
Danny Glover Reveals Alzheimer’s Diagnosis on TODAY: EXCLUSIVE
The 79-year-old “Lethal Weapon” star shared with Lester Holt that he was diagnosed with the progressive neurodegenerative disease a few years ago.
How Elite Sports Coaches Make High-Pressure Decisions
Drawing on interviews with 11 elite coaches across major U.S., European, Australian, and New Zealand professional sports leagues, the authors show that high-pressure decisions aren’t a single “formula” but a set of practices that unfold before, during, and after pivotal moments—and translate directly to business leadership. Top coaches combine disciplined preparation with emotional control and social awareness during crunch time and accountability and continual system improvement after the fact.
France’s Far Right Joins the Fray of Air Conditioning Politics
France’s far right is promising air conditioners now, rather than climate solutions for later, to try and sway voters as Europe bakes under record temperatures.
Reaching communities close to hostilities in Ukraine
Primary health care teams in Ukraine are reaching 121 locations within 60 km from active hostilities. This is part of the largest primary health care intervention in frontline areas in the country. European Union (EU)-supported teams are delivering essential services to people trapped by constant shelling and severe security constraints in 7 regions where no pharmacies operate, no health facilities function and evacuation remains impossible for residents.
Scientists may have finally found how Alzheimer's spreads through the brain
A common brain protein may be giving Alzheimer’s disease an unexpected way to spread, carrying toxic Tau proteins from damaged neurons into healthy ones. By blocking these harmful protein packages before they reach new cells, researchers believe it may one day be possible to slow the disease's relentless progression.
Doctors thought man had brain cancer — they found live tapeworms instead
Doctors suspected metastatic brain cancer in a 60-year-old man, but scans revealed pork tapeworm larvae causing neurocysticercosis.
France Keeps Health Emergency Plan at Highest Level in Case of Another Heatwave
PARIS, June 29 (Reuters) - French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Monday he was keeping the country's health emergency response plan, ORSAN, at its highest level for the coming days in view of "a possible recurrence of a heatwave episode". Lecornu was speaking at the start of a ...
Heat forces yodelers at annual Swiss festival to sing in fountains
Yodelers at a festival in Basel, Switzerland, turned city fountains into rehearsal spaces during Europe’s June heat wave.
Apple Acquires Award-Winning App 'Play'
In February, Apple notified the European Commission that it would be acquiring certain assets from and have the right to hire certain employees from Rabbit 3 Times, the company behind the award-winning app design tool Play. The notification was published on the European Commission's website this week, following a four-month waiting period. Play was a Mac and iPhone app that allowed designers to prototype iPhone app interfaces using Apple's SwiftUI frameworks, and then send them to Xcode.
French election politics bring surrogacy back into Europe’s spotlight
The former prime minister's call to legalize surrogacy has drawn opposition from across France's political spectrum, including within his own party, with possible consequences across Europe.
Top salaries at AANS 2024
The Rolling Meadows-based American Association of Neurological Surgeons, founded in 1931 as the Harvey Cushing Society, represents the specialty of neurological surgery and has more than 9,000 members.
Top salaries at AANS 2024
The Rolling Meadows-based American Association of Neurological Surgeons, founded in 1931 as the Harvey Cushing Society, represents the specialty of neurological surgery and has more than 9,000 members.
Is this World Cup now Europe v South America? Which giants fall today? Day 18 recap
Sunday was the strangest day of this World Cup, in that there was only one match, sandwiched between days with six and three respectively. This was for scheduling reasons: no third-placed sides could have played on Sunday, given that the identity of the eight sides and their precise fixtures had only been decided on Saturday night. It would also have been impossible to organise fixtures between any other winners and runners-up while also giving them a reasonable — and relatively similar — number of days since their final group stage fixture. In the game that did happen, co-hosts Canada...
Queerying neuroscience: How legislation and institutions reframe LGBTQIA+ researchers’ careers
In honor of Pride Month, The Transmitter spoke with three researchers who surveyed hundreds of LGBTQIA+ neuroscientists to better understand how institutional support, harassment and policy intersect to shape their professional trajectories.
Multiple sclerosis affects social life and work beyond physical health
Multiple sclerosis (MS) can have a substantial impact on many aspects of life beyond physical health, with 51% of people reporting that the disease affects their social life and 48% reporting that it affects their work, according to new research presented at the European Academy of Neurology (EAN) Congress 2026.
These fat-filled brain cells may be making multiple sclerosis worse
Scientists have uncovered a surprising clue that may help explain why multiple sclerosis (MS) progresses rapidly in some people but not others. In brain tissue from patients with severe MS, researchers found large numbers of “foamy” immune cells packed with fat droplets after absorbing damaged myelin. These overloaded cells appear to switch from helping repair the brain to fueling ongoing damage and inflammation.
Europe’s Heat Politics
As the continent swelters, some right-wing populists are talking up their support for air-conditioning.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Sony will pull Studio Canal purchases for European users
The trend of revoking access to digital purchases continues, this time affecting European customers of Sony's PlayStation Store.
Austria lobbies EU to host Anthropic AI after US curbs, Bloomberg News reports
Austria is pushing the European Union to consider hosting Anthropic AI system within its borders to counter efforts by the U.S. to block foreigners from using the company's most advanced models, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday.
Common pesticide linked to more than double the risk of Parkinson’s disease
Scientists at UCLA have linked long-term exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos with a sharply increased risk of Parkinson’s disease. People exposed to the chemical near their homes were more than twice as likely to develop the condition. Laboratory studies showed that chlorpyrifos damages dopamine neurons and interferes with the brain’s ability to remove toxic protein buildup.
Science & Medicine: Scanning the brain to improve treatment for traumatized teens
Around 20% of teens who have experienced emotional trauma don't respond to talk therapy. UT Health San Antonio is using neuroimaging to track brain changes in traumatized teens during a course of therapy to see if they can figure out why, which could lead to the development of more personalized treatments that will help more teens heal.
Climate change to blame for intensity of Europe heat wave: Scientists
Human-caused climate change is "unequivocally" responsible for the intensity of a record-breaking heat wave scorching Europe, scientists said Friday.
Fiorentina agreement for Beltran, but striker resists River Plate
Fiorentina have agreed to sell half of Lucas Beltran to River Plate following the loan at Valencia, but it’s reported the player wants to remain in Europe.The striker spent time in the River Plate a...
Germany news: Heat soars as political reforms split opinion
As Europe's heatwave rages, Germany continues to swelter with new records expected Saturday. Elsewhere, politicians bicker over reforms and industry blames train operator DB for billions in losses. DW has the latest.
Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Europe if countries tax digital services
He added that the new tax would supersede any previously negotiated trade deals
Trump threatens 100% tax on European imports if countries impose tax on digital services
“Please let this statement serve to represent that any Country that imposes such a Tax will immediately be met with a 100% TARIFF on any and all Goods sent to the United States of America,” Trump wrote in a post on social media.
Science Can Fully Explain Consciousness? By 326 Theories…
It’s supposed to be a given that machines or brain organoids might be conscious despite not knowing what that is or how it works — but preborn children can’t be…
Air-conditioning becomes political amid sweltering Europe heatwave
Much of western Europe baked under a “heat dome” as temperatures soar. Authorities warn that the extreme conditions could endanger lives across countries, many of which have limited air conditioning, a topic of which has left the people of Paris divided.
Remigration: a growing far-right movement
Once a fringe position, calls for mass deportation are spreading throughout Europe and entering mainstream politics
How to get free Windows 10 security patches until October 2027 - and avoid the $30 fee
Don't want to pay to keep Windows 10 security updates? Microsoft has several workarounds, with the best deal for European users.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
OHSU advances massive leap in medical science with cellular therapies
Patients are benefiting from CAR-T to treat neurodegenerative diseases, cancer, lupus and other autoimmune conditions.
Europe’s Deadly Heat Wave: A Jolt for Climate Action, or Just for A.C.?
Heat-related deaths and disruptions to daily life are forcing politicians to reckon, in different ways, with a rapidly warming planet.
Sweden: European Social Rights Committee calls for an end to Sweden’s two-tier healthcare system
Amnesty International welcomes a landmark decision by the European Committee of Social Rights finding that Sweden breached the right to health without discrimination.
TravelTech Show, Business Travel Show Europe name 2026 innovation award winners
Arcube, ImpersonAlly, Acai and Nowadays were recognized in separate competitions for travel technology innovations spanning airline retailing, brand protection, contact center automation and meetings management.
Joint statement – WHO/Europe and CCEE to collaborate on addressing health inequities and loneliness
WHO/Europe and the Council of Bishops’ Conferences of Europe (CCEE) officially signed a Letter of Intent on 23 June to establish a strategic partnership for promoting pan-European dialogue to reduce inequities, enabling every child and adult to live in health, safety and dignity.
Neuroimaging utilization in emergency departments has increased year-over-year for a decade
Researchers believe their new data could be used to better inform staffing coverage in modern radiology departments.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Impact of European heat wave on transportation, businesses, tourism
A heat wave across Europe caused record-breaking temperatures, affecting businesses, infrastructure, and daily life.
Smile spacecraft reaches science orbit
The European-Chinese Smile mission reached its designated science orbit on June 20, 2026. The team is now embarking on a two-month campaign to commission the spacecraft, which involves switching on and ...
Europe heatwave breaks records as UN agencies ramp up health warnings
As a record-breaking heatwave grips large parts of Europe, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), national weather services and partners are mobilising heat-health action plans for millions of people facing dangerous temperatures.
Europe's heatwave shifts east as as France raises health alert to highest level
Temperatures in Germany could hit 40C in some areas while French officials say deaths linked to the heat are being seen among young people.
Scientists discover how a single cell builds a brain with 170 billion cells
How does a single cell build a brain with billions of precisely organized neurons? Researchers suggest that brain cells use their lineage—their cellular family tree—as a kind of positional map. Cells that come from the same ancestor stay near one another, helping the brain organize itself without relying solely on chemical signals.
How should European scientists respond to the US AI kill switch?
Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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