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Supreme Court’s dramatic moves will reshape elections — and give the GOP a midterm boost

Legal experts said the justices’ intervention amid an election cycle and the pace at which the court moved to implement changes that largely benefit one party is all but unprecedented in recent years.

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Jul 5 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Opinion | The science of the Declaration of Independence

On our 250th anniversary, a different look at America’s founding document.

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Jul 5 • 12:01 AM EDT • Science • bostonglobe.com
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Fireworks, heat, hot dogs and politics: America celebrates its 250th birthday

The signing of the Declaration of Independence, one of history’s most celebrated articulations of democratic ambitions, is being marked in myriad ways.

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Jul 4 • 4:59 PM EDT • Politics • wsbtv.com
Trump makes himself central to America’s 250th anniversary

The president has blended patriotic spectacle with campaign-style politics, reshaping a civic milestone around his leadership and worldview.

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Jul 4 • 4:08 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Florida Health warns against contact with wild animals due to rabies risk

In Seminole County, avoid wild and stray animals to reduce rabies risk. Keep pets vaccinated and supervised for safety.

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Jul 4 • 1:21 PM EDT • Health • wftv.com
Mass. to end contract with Biobot for wastewater surveillance

Biobot proved waste water surveillance was valuable enough that governments now want to do it themselves.

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Jul 4 • 10:56 AM EDT • Health • bostonglobe.com
Free health screenings could help prevent Georgia’s biggest killers

These DeKalb doctors aren’t waiting for people to get sick. They’re bringing lifesaving screenings to the community.

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Jul 4 • 10:10 AM EDT • Health • wsbtv.com
6 science-backed tips for staying hydrated in the summer heat

Experts share the latest thinking on how to make sure you’re consuming the water your body needs while avoiding health risks.

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Jul 4 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • washingtonpost.com
6 science-backed tips for staying hydrated in the summer heat

Experts share the latest thinking on how to make sure you’re consuming the water your body needs while avoiding health risks.

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Jul 4 • 5:00 AM EDT • Science • washingtonpost.com
Fireworks, heat and politics: US celebrates its 250th birthday

fireworks are scheduled to be set off Saturday over Navy Pier in Chicago and against the skyline of New York City.

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Jul 4 • 1:23 AM EDT • Politics • bostonglobe.com
Trump gives his take on Taft, Nixon, Obama in Usha Vance interview

On the second lady’s podcast aimed at promoting child literacy, Trump also said the country is “on a little bit of a ledge right now.”

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Jul 3 • 3:47 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Trump returns to Mount Rushmore after years of hinting he belongs there

The White House says there would be “no better addition” to Mount Rushmore than Trump, who last month posted an image of his face on the monument.

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Jul 3 • 11:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
As Trump commands 250th stage, Democrats offer their vision of patriotism

Partisanship around the country’s big anniversary has put Democrats in a bind: They want to criticize the president without appearing unpatriotic.

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Jul 3 • 6:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
What your feet are trying to tell you about your health

These strange or unsuspecting foot and toe symptoms can signal problems elsewhere in the body.

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Jul 3 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • washingtonpost.com
What a 50-year-old Post prediction got right — and wrong

Science editor Thomas O’Toole forecast innovations, including gene editing, deep-sea mining and nuclear-powered artificial hearts.

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Jul 3 • 5:00 AM EDT • Science • washingtonpost.com
Trump got the Senate candidates he wanted. How much will he spend to help them?

President Donald Trump has reshaped the U.S. Senate map by sidelining some Republican incumbents and promoting loyalists

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Jul 3 • 12:09 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
19-year-old shot by Federal Way police during mental health crisis may face charges

A teenager called 911 during a mental health crisis and was shot by police 10 minutes after they arrived. Now, investigators say he may face charges

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Jul 2 • 10:16 PM EDT • Health • kiro7.com
Oregon Health Authority director Sejal Hathi announces resignation

Hathi’s departure is a surprise and comes as OHA is preparing to cut $421 million from medicaid after years of expanding the program.

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Jul 2 • 3:22 PM EDT • Health • opb.org
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D.C. official tells Trump to build his arch somewhere else

The city’s historic preservation officer criticizes the president’s plan to build his towering arch in Memorial Circle, suggests the administration should pick a spot near Nationals Park.

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Jul 2 • 2:42 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Trump filing shows he took in about $1.2 billion from crypto businesses last year

Mere startups when he took the oath of office, the new ventures have now eclipsed in revenue much of his vast property portfolio that took him decades to accumulate.

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Jul 2 • 10:56 AM EDT • Business • opb.org
Goal of higher voter turnout remains elusive in California as changes have extended ballot counting

California has enacted many changes over the years that were intended to boost voter turnout

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Jul 2 • 10:06 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Why a case pivotal to the anti-vax movement could end up at the Supreme Court

The legal argument that vaccine mandates without a religious exemption violate the First Amendment could deliver the anti-vaccine movement its biggest win.

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Jul 2 • 9:50 AM EDT • Health • washingtonpost.com
Abolish the NIH. It really would benefit science.

A $48 billion government monopoly should give way to the market.

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Jul 2 • 6:00 AM EDT • Science • washingtonpost.com
Is America celebrating the wrong anniversary? John Adams thought so.

The Founding Father anticipated “Pomp and Parade” to mark America’s birthday. But he didn’t think it would happen July 4.

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Jul 2 • 6:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Busy Cobb County road shut down after large business fire

This is a breaking news story. We’ll bring you all the latest developments, LIVE on Channel 2 Action News This Morning from 4:30 a.m. to 9 a.m.

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Jul 2 • 5:02 AM EDT • Business • wsbtv.com
4 surprising (and evidence-based) health benefits of drinking coffee

Hundreds of studies have shown that a cup of joe — or more! — every day may protect against some major diseases.

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Jul 2 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • washingtonpost.com
CID businesses voice frustration over lack of foot traffic, safety during World Cup

“The rest of downtown is benefiting. We are not. So, enough is enough,” one business owner said.

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Jul 1 • 9:47 PM EDT • Business • kiro7.com
World Cup visitors could be a test for U.S. healthcare systems

Seattle hospitals have been prepping for possible emergency situations and public health issues for months ahead of the matches.

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Jul 1 • 7:43 PM EDT • Health • kiro7.com
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A GOP lawmaker who owns a fireworks business urged followers to defy Utah Gov. Cox’s pyro restrictions

As Utah Gov. Spencer Cox orders statewide firework restrictions to prevent new wildfires, a GOP lawmaker — who co-owns a firework business — encouraged Utahns to go ahead with pyrotechnic celebrations anyway.

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Jul 1 • 6:00 PM EDT • Business • sltrib.com
Orlando Health Children’s to serve as umbrella brand for pediatric care

Orlando Health unifies pediatric care under the new Orlando Health Children's brand, serving Central Florida and beyond.

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Jul 1 • 1:59 PM EDT • Health • wftv.com
You won’t be able to buy new PlayStation games on discs starting in 2028

It's is a massive step toward the dissolution of physical media in games, since PlayStation holds the biggest share of the console market.

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Jul 1 • 12:49 PM EDT • Technology • washingtonpost.com
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh emphasizes political independence

When asked about President Trump’s oft-repeated desire for lower rates at a central bank conference, Warsh underscored the Fed’s independence from day-to-day politics.

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Jul 1 • 10:47 AM EDT • Politics • bostonglobe.com
Trump filing shows he took in about $1.2b from crypto businesses last year

President Trump got more than $500 million from his World Liberty Financial business selling new crypto products, according to the annual disclosure report with the Office of Government Ethics.

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Jul 1 • 8:23 AM EDT • Business • bostonglobe.com
If you’re at risk of Alzheimer’s, these dietary habits can help, study finds

Research suggests diet remains a relevant factor for brain health even after blood markers of dementia are present.

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Jul 1 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • washingtonpost.com
Universal Orlando Resort unveils Fourth of July entertainment and fireworks

Experience the Fourth of July at Universal Orlando Resort with fireworks, entertainment, activities, and dining.

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Jun 30 • 7:44 PM EDT • Entertainment • wftv.com
Seven gastrointestinal illness cases linked to Seattle sushi restaurant, health officials say

Seven people reported getting sick after eating at the Sushi%AYCE/All You Can Eat restaurant in Seattle’s Chinatown International District.

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Jun 30 • 4:23 PM EDT • Health • kiro7.com
AI Should Focus on Fixing Business Problems

Automation should not replace accountability.

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Jun 30 • 4:05 PM EDT • Business • inc.com
5 takeaways from Supreme Court rulings on Trump, elections and LGBTQ+ rights

This term, the Supreme Court justices gave President Donald Trump more power — but not as much as he wanted.

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Jun 30 • 4:00 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Why the Supreme Court’s ruling could deepen Democrats’ fundraising woes

The Supreme Court’s decision on Tuesday to loosen campaign finance laws by allowing party committees to coordinate with candidates is a boon for Republicans and threatens to deepen Democratic fundraising woes.

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Jun 30 • 12:57 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Supreme Court sides with GOP, loosens campaign spending rules

The decision is the latest in which the Supreme Court has weighed in on campaign finance rules.

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Jun 30 • 10:51 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Two Dan Sullivans will be on the ballot in Alaska

The incumbent senator accuses his challenger of being a Democratic plant set up to confuse primary voters, but fellow Republican Dan J. Sullivan has said his desire to run is genuine.

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Jun 30 • 10:27 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Absent congressman returns to Congress after nearly four months

Rep. Tom Kean (R-New Jersey) has pledged to be “completely transparent” about what happened upon his return.

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Jun 30 • 9:56 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Orlando ranks No. 2 in US for freelancer business growth since 2019

Orlando ranks as the 2nd fastest-growing freelance market in the US, with significant growth in freelancer businesses since 2019.

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Jun 30 • 9:42 AM EDT • Business • wftv.com
Analysis | Democrats turn to unconventional organizing in an atypical ‘must-win’ Senate race

Alaska presents myriad challenges to political organizers.

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Jun 30 • 5:46 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Decrying 'egos in politics,' Wu sharpens attacks on Beacon Hill foes

Mayor Michelle Wu's deteriorating relationships in the Senate have led her to drop the veil and endorse first-time candidates running against those whom she views as thwarting her priorities.

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Jun 30 • 5:30 AM EDT • Politics • bostonglobe.com
Iran’s leverage over Strait of Hormuz snarls Trump’s push for a deal

Washington and Tehran are back at the negotiating table after a fragile ceasefire. But experts remain skeptical the two sides are close to a nuclear deal, even as calm oil markets reduce pressure to reach one.

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Jun 30 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Protect the workers who protect our health

Massachusetts lawmakers should pass bipartisan workplace violence reforms before the legislative session ends.

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Jun 30 • 3:00 AM EDT • Health • bostonglobe.com
Opinion

"This set of proposed rules represents a Project 2025 for science."

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Jun 30 • 2:00 AM EDT • Science • bostonglobe.com
Dept. of Social and Health Services announces massive data breach involving personal information

The employee may have accessed names, dates of birth and social security numbers. A total of 8,600 records were accessed.

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Jun 29 • 8:01 PM EDT • Health • kiro7.com
Woman says popular oil change business left her engine in the backseat

“What they pulled out of my car looks like something from a sci-fi movie.”

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Jun 29 • 7:33 PM EDT • Business • wsbtv.com
Former Trump adviser Jason Miller eyed to join White House in midterms shake-up

The White House is bringing on new staff as part of a new effort to boost its messaging operation ahead of the midterm elections.

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Jun 29 • 3:10 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
The most underrated business discipline is hospitality

How a hotel candle reminds this CEO that AI is important, but so is being human in the business environment.

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Jun 29 • 2:28 PM EDT • Business • fastcompany.com
Ohio Casino Control Commission seizes illegal gaming machines from Sidney business

Complaints had been filed alleging that the business was operating gaming machines in violation of state law, prompting an investigation.

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Jun 29 • 12:22 PM EDT • Business • whio.com
Housing bill that Trump refuses to sign heads to his desk

House Speaker Mike Johnson is set to send a bipartisan housing bill to President Donald Trump’s desk Monday, but it is unclear whether he will sign it into law.

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Jun 29 • 11:13 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Supreme Court expands Trump’s power over the federal bureaucracy

The justices allowed the president to fire a Democratic member of the Federal Trade Commission, striking down a nearly century-old precedent intended to insulate independent agencies from political influence by the executive.

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Jun 29 • 10:43 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Pride, protest, and politics surround Seattle’s Egypt-Iran World Cup match

Hours before the match between Egypt and Iran kicked off in Seattle, the streets of Pioneer Square echoed with protest chants.

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Jun 29 • 9:00 AM EDT • Politics • opb.org
A Salt Lake City school’s new sports complex features a huge turf field. Neighbors say it’s a heat island

One couple said they’re no longer able to enjoy their yard because it now reeks of hot rubber.

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Jun 29 • 8:00 AM EDT • Sports • sltrib.com
After her insurer denied coverage of medication, she ended up in the ER

After switching Medicare Advantage plans, a woman with a weakened immune system got tangled in the preapproval process, which the insurance industry has vowed to improve.

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Jun 29 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • washingtonpost.com
Why resisting Trump has galvanized Black Democrats as the midterms approach

High primary turnout among Black voters in the South has given some in the party hope for upset wins in the region.

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Jun 29 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
New Ballard coffee shop burglarized two months into business

Highland Espresso is recovering after thieves broke in and stole thousands of dollars worth of equipment early Thursday morning.

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Jun 28 • 7:57 PM EDT • Business • kiro7.com
Cassidy, fresh off a blowup with Trump, blasts RFK Jr.’s policies

The GOP senator said a “foundation of lies” had shaped Kennedy's health stances. He also accused Trump of treating Congress as an "appendage."

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Jun 28 • 2:43 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Employees of downtown businesses in metro Atlanta city will get special parking

Change is coming to downtown parking in Powder Springs.

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Jun 28 • 10:58 AM EDT • Business • wsbtv.com
Punk rock culture meets Portland’s love of soccer and women’s sports in Cherry Bombs FC’s first season

Portland’s new pre-professional women’s soccer team plays the last home game of the short season Sunday at Lents Park.

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Jun 28 • 9:00 AM EDT • Sports • opb.org
Government overreach won’t fix youth gender medicine

The real cure for bad science is better clinical trials, not lawsuits.

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Jun 28 • 7:00 AM EDT • Science • washingtonpost.com
Government overreach won’t fix youth gender medicine

The real cure for bad science is better clinical trials, not lawsuits.

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Jun 28 • 7:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
GOP candidate with same name as senator can stay on Alaska ballot, judge rules

Supporters of incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan say a challenger with the same name is not running in “good faith,” but a judge says that is not an issue.

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Jun 27 • 4:39 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Vancouver turns its Science World museum into a giant 17-story soccer ball for the World Cup

It started with a whimsical idea

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Jun 27 • 3:00 PM EDT • Science • washingtonpost.com
Scratching a bug bite feels good but science says it’s a bad idea

Researchers have gained a better understanding of why we have an itch to scratch.

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Jun 27 • 9:52 AM EDT • Science • bostonglobe.com
Alito and Kagan’s telling exchange about race and politics

Both sides of the debate in the court’s case on temporary protected status could have used a little more realism.

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Jun 27 • 6:30 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
How the dairy industry pushed Trump for migrant labor, and won

President Donald Trump was expected to announce the expansion of a guest-worker program to the dairy industry at a Wisconsin event. Instead, the news came out in a press release, angering immigration hard-liners.

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Jun 27 • 6:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Pete Buttigieg says he was the victim of bogus report to child protective services

The high-profile Democrat and potential 2028 presidential contender said he couldn’t see his twins for 24 hours as report was investigated.

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Jun 26 • 6:02 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Health Brief: Inside the CDC nominee’s finances

Plus: Supreme Court ruling sparks health worker deportation fears

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Jun 26 • 4:44 PM EDT • Health • washingtonpost.com
Healey’s $305M economic development bill boosts defense, startups

This week, the Legislature's economic development committee released its own version of the bill, which includes money for defense and AI industries.

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Jun 26 • 12:25 PM EDT • Business • bostonglobe.com
Sugar is not uniquely bad for you. But it’s undermining good habits.

Is sugar more harmful than other carbohydrates? The evidence is far from compelling.

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Jun 26 • 6:00 AM EDT • Health • washingtonpost.com
Massachusetts marijuana legalization repeal question battle heats up

Cannabis industry leaders are urging businesses to take the initiative seriously after many previously dismissed its chances.

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Jun 26 • 5:39 AM EDT • Business • bostonglobe.com
Opinion | Don't apply politics to scientific research

Under recently proposed rules, federal grants could be terminated midstream for reasons having little to do with science or merit.

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Jun 26 • 4:00 AM EDT • Politics • bostonglobe.com
Inside Trump’s plans for retribution and other lesser-known allegations in ‘Regime Change’

A new book from two Washington reporters reveals what took place inside the White House after President Donald Trump’s return to power.

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Jun 25 • 6:21 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Supreme Court hands Trump major victories on his immigration agenda

In two ideologically spit rulings that could affect millions, justices say the administration can deport some migrants and turn others away at the border.

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Jun 25 • 5:28 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Making Our Own Luck

We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.

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Jun 25 • 4:48 PM EDT • Science • goodscience.substack.com
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