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Chartbook 464 The"China squeeze" - the politics of development counterfactuals.
There are three types of China shock discourse. Each has a distinct temporal register. China shock 1.0 was a phrase coined by US academics in the 2010s to retrospectively summarize the impact on particular US labour markets, which they identified through painstaking empirical investigation. China shock 2.0 on everyone’s lips in Europe in the mid 2020s is an alarm raised by trans-Atlantic policy thinkers warning of a coming disaster which they project onto Europe’s ailing car industry. The third type of China shock discourse - commonly known as the “China squeeze” launched most recently by Indian economists Shoumitro Chatterjee and Arvind Subramanian in the pages of Foreign Affairs - mobilizes a different, more speculative temporal register: the counterfactual realm of alternate history. The China squeeze argument asks not what has happened, or what is going to happen, but what might have been. Specifically, what options for economic development might have been open to Global South economies like India or the economies of sub-Saharan Africa, had it not been for China’s spectacular industrialization since the late 1990s and the persistent competitiveness of China’s manufacture in low-skilled segments. Chatterjee and Subramanian’s argument is that whilst China has built a powerful position in electrical machinery and other high-skill manufacturing, which is now delivering China Shock 2.0, it also continues to run a trade surplus in low-skill, labour-intensive manufacturing. This surplus is large and has remained largely unchanged in fifteen years. Indeed, in the 2010s, in trade with low-income countries, China’s surplus rapidly increased. On their reading, this squeezes low-income producers in low-skill sectors in which they “should” be able to compete. Source: “China’s Mercantilist Squeeze on Developing Countries” Shoumitro Chatterjee and Arvind Subramanian. Peterson Institute for International Economics 26-7 May 2026 Chatterjee and Subramanian’s wording is telling: (emphasis mine) The canonical trajectory of economic development in the post-World War II period is for countries to transition from agriculture to manufacturing, first in low-skilled manufacturing and then later on to high-skill manufacturing (Herrendorf, Rogerson, and Valentinyi 2013). At the global level, this implies that high-income countries (HICs) that once specialized in low-skilled activities cede manufacturing export space to poorer countries that come along to occupy that space. In 1965, advanced economies accounted for about 60 percent of global value-added exports in four key low-skilled manufacturing sectors, i.e., apparel, leather, textiles, and footwear. Over time this share declined and began to be occupied first by the East Asian tigers and, beginning in the late 1990s, by China. Today China accounts for about 50 percent of the global market. The question is whether China, with its rising prosperity, is continuing to behave like its richer counterparts and ceding export space to poorer followers or to behave unlike them and continuing to occupy space. In terms of the conceptual maneuvers it performs, of the three China shock discourses, the “China squeeze” argument is by far the most ambitious. After all, it bases its critique of China on a counterfactual imagining of the world. Like any counterfactual argument, to construct this alternative reality it must rely on a heuristic model. To make their argument Chatterjee and Subramanian mobilize two key claims. The first reference point is the actual history of rich-country industrialization, what they refer to as the “canonical path”. The idea is that countries transition from agriculture to light industry and low-skilled manufacturing and from there up the value chain. To make this useful as a standard of comparison and a means to construct a normative standard, they adjust sectoral export shares for two factors: 1. the underlying level of economic development of the exporting country, as measured by national income and 2. the degree to which the sector in question is internationalized. The idea being that for a high income country to have a high export share in low-skill sectors is anomalous and even more so if that particular product is highly internationalized and thus suitable for being “conceded” to lower-income competitors. Where should this process end? Here Chatterjee and Subramanian introduce their second benchmark. Their normative idea of a global development path is one in which, in due course, low-skill manufacturing exports are distributed in proportion to a country’s share in the global labour force. They imagine, in other words, a world of proportional, polycentric global development without much national specialization in low-skill manufacturing. A useful benchmark is that, in labor-intensive manufacturing sectors, a country’s share of world exports should be broadly commensurate with its share of the world’s low-skilled labor endowment. … In the Heckscher-Ohlin model, this would be true if value added per worker and export propensities, i.e., fraction of output that is exported, are the same across countries. It is this pleasant liberal vista of orderly global development, progressing towards a general distribution of low-skilled manufacturing against which they judge reality and conclude that the low-income countries are suffering a “China squeeze”. China is not exiting low-skill sectors fast enough Allowing for its gdp level and the degree of globalization, China’s share of low-skill manufacturing exports is far higher than it “should” be. Relative to population, its low-skill share of exports is far too high. That in turn yields the conclusion that huge numbers of jobs - the authors suggest tens of millions - are being hoarded by China. For the four sectors captured in figure 4, this excess in value-added exports is $110 billion in 2022. For all low-skilled sectors overall captured in appendix figure D.1, excess value-added exports amount to $365 billion. The crowding out of LMIC exports by China is therefore substantial. Both these claims have in common that they are strong structuralisms. The first is that development paths ought to resemble each other. The second is that broadly speaking as far as low-skilled manufacturing is concerned, all countries are alike. If the world currently diverges from the distribution of trade implied by these assumptions, if China is not following the advanced economy path and has huge exports, this must be the result of “policy”, which the authors then put in question as illegitimate or unfair. Thus the naturalistic construction of a canonical path leading to a “level” distribution of low-skilled manufacturing reveals itself to be a polemical tool. From the point of view of China shock polemics, this discourse is no doubt welcome. But as an account of economic history, it must surely be regarded as nothing short of bamboozling. Development paths do not follow a regular, natural sequence. As David Fishman put it aptly, “development is not a queue”. They are always and everywhere, through and through political. Development is not so much a process, as a project. Each such project is more or less well adjusted to its context. As Gerschenkron taught uneven and combined development implies differentiation rather than simple imitation on a single parth. It may be true that Europe and the US exited relatively early from low-skill work. But clearly technology has changed. As C&S themselves point out, China no longer enjoys a low wage environment. Do they really believe that such huge differences can be accounted for either by industrial policy, which as they admit does not operate powerfully in low-skill sectors, or by exchange rate manipulation? What is overwhelmingly dominant in explaining the persistence of “low-skill” manufacturing in China are surely the network effects of complex supply chains. Indeed the label of “low-skill” may miss the point. The degree of globalization which Chatterjee and Subramanian decide to conjure away in their model of the development path - to allow for the fact that Europe and American textiles exporters did not enjoy just-in-time logistics in the 1950s - obscures the point that the networks through which Chinese factories supply the world are themselves key parts of the low-skill industrialization project. China isn’t knocking out 1970s style “cheap”. It has redefined the entire product cycle. C&S’s casual reference to “T-shirts” is telling. In today’s “fast fashion”, there is weight on both terms. Fashion and fast. China’s success in delivering on both at unprecedentedly high speed and at unprecedentedly low cost, isn’t a low-skill operation at all. If we see development trajectories not as the serial repetition of the same, but as distinctive, crafted projects that cumulate in complex agglomerations of skill, technology and labor, then this explains why the assumption that low-skilled manufacturing should follow the distribution of population flies in the face of all experience. As countless cases attest, low-wage, low-income developed economies are not by themselves the makings of a competitive production base. As Leon Liao puts it quite fairly: “International trade has never been allocated according to population. A country’s population gives it no natural claim to an equivalent share of global exports." And the remarkable fact is that Subramanian alone and with co-authors has long been making this point, not to pillory China, as is the case of the tendentious _Foreign Affair_s and Peterson pieces, but to highlight the great counterpart to China’s industrial success, namely India’s relative failure. The much-quoted Foreign Affairs piece showed low-skill export shares only for China, not for India. If you put both countries in the picture as Chaterjee and Subramanian have done on other occasions, the picture looks like this. China is far above the line, but India, almost as large in terms of population, is no less anomalous, just in the opposite direction. As far as global populations are concerned, and the imagining of tens of millions of “squeezed” jobs, it is this Sino-Indian pair that account for a huge share of the action. What this graph reveals is not China’s cheating, but India’s “greatest development failure”, at least this is the argument made Arvind Subramanian, this time in co-authorship with Devesh Kapur, in their major book, A Sixth of Humanity. Independent India’s Development Odyssey which appeared with Oxford University Press earlier this year. In this highly critical work on India’s development, China is repeatedly evoked, not to criticize but as a benchmark against which to illuminate what India’s political economy has not delivered i.e. large-scale formal employment for hundreds of millions of citizens. Kapur and Subramanian leave no doubt, if you want to understand why China, not India was the main driver of manufacturing globalization from the 1980s, don’t look to slots opening up in the division of labour thanks to the liberal mindedness of advanced economies, look to the contrasting political economy of the Maoist PRC and India’s post-independence political economy. As Kapur and Subramian note: The great divergence between China and India did not begin in 1978 with the Deng reforms—it was well underway by then. In one of the great ironies of modern history, the conditions created by Maoism turned out to be a great launching pad for industrial globalization. As the comparison of India and China in 1980 makes clear, to imagine manufacturing would be equally distributed when populations are so differently endowed in terms of educational and nutritional is fanciful. Here is the data from Kapur and Subramanian, data which I explored back at the very beginning of Chartbook. As Kapur and Subramanian insist, the striking fact is that even as India’s growth accelerated from the 1980s, structural change has not. Formal employment in India lags woefully behind. Why? As Kapur and Subramanian note, the path-dependent impact of India’s poor early start was devastating. The list of factors they mention is long and weighty: We argue for a new five-fold explanation applicable at different stages of Indian history: in the initial stages, the legacy of two key pre-1980s policies, the neglect of agriculture and the strangling of the domestic private sector, were critical. The failure of broad-based agricultural growth militated against rural industrialization, which would have been devoted to satisfying local needs that would have necessarily been labour intensive. Then, when the boom came after 1980, the thicket of regulation and broader labour protections that were legislated prematurely in a nascent democracy, underpinned by a deep ideological aversion to private capital in general and big capital specifically, became a barrier to attaining the size that would be necessary to compete globally. Similarly, the reforms after 1991, while wide-ranging, did not quite encompass non-tradeable inputs critical to manufacturing, namely, land, logistics infrastructure and power. A combination of low investment (logistics infrastructure), regulation (land) and the continued monopoly supply by state governments (power), combined with residual socialism, kept costs at 75–100 per cent above efficient supply. These factors were compounded on the supply side by the government, which dominated the formal labour market and established exorbitantly high wages at the lower end of the skill spectrum. This made their employment in the labour-intensive sector by the private sector less attractive. Finally, when the services sector and its exports boomed, wages soared even further via a Dutch Disease effect: one successful tradeable sector killed and cannibalized another less-skilled tradable sector, namely, manufacturing. Thus, scarcity-inducing policies of the planning era, precocious democracy and a Gandhian aversion to size; inefficient, monopolistic supply of critical non-tradable inputs; the behemoth of government; and super-successful skill-intensive services successively undermined India’s unskilled labour employment opportunities. The employment failure seems to have been over-determined. … Less quantifiable but no less important are some of the sociological factors that have undermined manufacturing and factory jobs. Take the impact of the success of the IT sector—located in urban areas with better working conditions, such as air-conditioned offices, good schools for children and attractive entertainment options. It became a more attractive place for engineering and management graduates to flock to. … Consider manufacturing and female employment. Indian society makes it difficult for women to work, reflected in India’s unusually low female labour force participation (elaborated in Chapter XIII). Indian society, in particular the routine harassment of women in public spaces, makes it even more difficult for them to travel long distances to take up work.37 Combined with onerous regulations on creating hostels and dormitories for women—which, in turn, prevents multiple shifts of operation—factories need to be located in areas with a large female labour pool. While firms can take apparel plants to female labour or bring them to the plants by building large-scale dormitories, this raises costs. If there was a case for subsidies to encourage labour-intensive manufacturing, housing subsidies to build dormitories for women workers would be a good place to start. All of this meant, that when opportunities did open up, in part thanks to adjustments in China, India was in no position to take advantage. Here is the account of the 2020s from Kapur and Subramanian. It stands in dizzying contrast to the one-sided, “China squeeze” argument delivered in the Peterson and Foreign Affairs pieces: In 2022, for example, India’s share of global exports in clothing (the canonical labour-intensive sector) was 3.1 per cent compared to 32 per cent for China. This is extremely disappointing because China started vacating export space in this sector after the Global Financial Crisis as its wages started rising; it then vacated further space in the aftermath of geopolitical developments that led investors to seek alternative investment locations. Between its peak and today, China lost about 7.5 percentage points of global export share (worth about $43 billion in 2022); over this period, India’s export share remained stagnant at 3 per cent, while that of Vietnam and Bangladesh rose by 3.5 to 4 percentage points. China’s loss did not translate into any gain for India in terms of low-skill exports and employment. Put differently, when the conditions for dynamism and prosperity were established after 1991, and even more tantalizingly when the global export opportunities opened up, it was as if India was a high-wage economy and only skilled labour could benefit from the dynamism. It had converted its physically abundant unskilled workforce into an economically expensive resource, penalizing its use. It is not my mission here to argue for or against Kapur and Subramanian’s interpretation of India’s development trajectory. The point in this context is simply that the “China squeeze” such as it is can only be understood, in relation to the heavy burden of domestic constraints that Kapur and Subramanian so unsparingly enumerate. I am concentrating here on India because it is the great counterpart to China and the unspoken reference point of the “China squeeze” discourse. But the point is more general. Can anyone with a straight face suggest that the main problems afflicting the development of South Africa or Nigeria, the great centers of mass underemployment in sub-saharan Africa, are cheap competition from China driven by Beijing’s industrial policy and an undervalued RMB? Likewise, is the main problem of the American working-class the threat of Chinese competition or the manifest crisis of social reproduction in the United States itself? The point here, as in the discourse around China shock 2.0 in Europe, is to insist that we should not normalize the world and pathologize China, without actually investigating what is going on in America’s industrial wastelands, the German car industry, or India’s lopsided labour market. One-sided pathologization should be understood for what it is, a polemical gesture. Concepts like China shock and China squeeze are, what Reinhart Koselleck, following Carl Schmitt, would have described as “asymmetrische Kampfbegriffe”, or “asymmetrical counter-concepts” or “asymmetrical combat concepts”. If the function of arguments like the “China squeeze” is to alert elites in the rest of the world of the need to rejuvenate and energize their development projects, so be it. But let us see the resulting discourses as the mobilizing interventions that they are. Interestingly, a significant slice of China’s public sphere - the so-called industrial party - have been obsessed for the last twenty years with precisely these questions of counterfactual economic history. Since the mid 2000s, a massive online discourse developed around an alternative history in which Chinese techno-patriots were asked to imagine how they would proceed if they had the possibility of traveling back in time to transport modern technology into the Ming dynasty (1368-1644) thus averting the “great divergence” of the 18th and 19th centuries. It is a fantasy of course, but also a goad. The point was not directed at Westerners. The alternate history is dramatically nationalist, but few n the West had even heard of it until recently. The adherents of the industrial party are not liberal moralists. They don’t project natural ladders of international development and ask why others don’t cede space. They take the Realpolitik of global economic development for granted. Their pointe was directed against fellow Chinese. The rallying cry of the alternative narrative was this: Now that we are beginning to gain steam and push forward on our national development path, now that we are breaking out of the inferior position assigned to us even in the early years following WTO accession, do not lose yourself in humanistic imaginings about better futures. In the spirit of Deng, they called on China to embrace the hard truth of development. Perhaps one might of the Industrial Party as a cultural trend born out of desire for symbolic revenge against those who had inflicted the century of humiliation. In terms of the various temporalities of the “China shock” - retrospective, prospective and counterfactual - one might think of the Industrial Policy discourse as truly speculative, conjuring up the China shock that never was. Or perhaps one might better think of it as imagining a world in which a powerful China was no shock at all, but simply a defining fact of modern history. I love putting out Chartbook. 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The Beauty Of Settled Science
Commenters convinced me I made a subtle mis-step in my framing of Psychology Research Is Mostly Fine. My framing emphasized that social priming studies had failed to replicate, but that many other subfields of psychology hadn’t. This naturally led commenters to point to failed replications in other subfields. Although none of these were as bad as social priming, few or none were entirely problem-free. Instead of emphasizing the difference between social priming and other subfields, I should have emphasized the difference between settled science and novel research. Here are some of my favorite psychology findings: The brain is sculpted by reinforcement learning, and a key driver of this learning is a prediction-error-based algorithm located in the nucleus accumbens and implemented through dopamine. Psychedelic drugs exert their effects through 5-HT2A receptors, pointing to a role for these receptors in some sort of construct like the balance between priors and new evidence. Certain cognitive functions are localized to certain brain areas (for example, impulse control to the frontal lobes; linguistic structure to Broca’s area, linguistic meaning to Wernicke’s area. But injure one of these areas, or render a certain function useless (eg a blind person having no more use for their visual cortex), and these mappings can gradually shift - suggesting that neurons are general-purpose compute whose specialization is a contingent fact about convenience and efficiency rather than a necessity. Most personality traits and general capabilities are about 50% genetic and 50% random, with little role for family environment or childhood history, with a few notable exceptions like partisan preference. Recent research complicates this story, but the further you go from this basic picture, the gnarlier the chains of indirect causation you require. Neurons fire together in “brain waves”, whose exact frequency corresponds with the character of consciousness; These divide neurons into natural subpopulations and linked graphs. The gamma rhythm corresponds surprisingly well to items in conscious awareness. GABA receptors seem to be involved in something like relaxation. By hitting different GABA receptors in different ways, you can modulate the exact type of relaxation you produce. Hitting GABA-A directly is too powerful and can cause dangerous levels of sedation, but allosteric modulation of GABA is an incredibly fruitful strategy that underlies drugs from benzos to barbituates to alcohol. If you know your GABA-A subunits, you can target specific subtypes of relaxation; for example, Ambien hits GABA-A1 and induces sleep. Memory divides somewhat fuzzily into bins of immediate-sensory, short-term, and long-term, with separate retrieval and storage functions, and separate systems for declarative vs. procedural learning. These can be harmed selectively, usually by hippocampal injury, so that some patients can remember their life stories but not form new long-term memories, or learn new skills like bike-riding but not new facts. The exact substrate of memory is unclear but seems to involve new synaptic connections between neurons in at least some way. The ability of modern psychology and psychiatry to treat mental illness is real but limited. SSRIs work for half or slightly fewer than half of patients; antipsychotics work with extreme side effects; benzodiazpines work but produce addiction and tolerance in many (not all) people. Most supplements are stuck in Poor Quality Study Replication Crisis Hell, but melatonin and l-theanine stand out as especially promising. Psychotherapy works with moderate effect size, but (with a few exceptions) seems to be more about the relationship with the provider than the details of the therapy itself. Mental hospitalization can sometimes defuse immediate crises but work less well than mental hospitals would like, with some studies showing overall negative effects. Schizophrenia is mostly genetic, but risk also increases with prenatal infection (especially rubella) and obstetric complications; there is suggestive evidence for roles of social stress and drug use (with psychedelics and marijuana making things worse, and nicotine if anything making things better). Bipolar and schizophrenia are so closely linked on a pathophysiological level that it seems like they might be the same disease; on the clinical level, they do seem to follow two separate courses/prognoses but can sometimes surprise clinicians by eg someone who seemed condemned to permanent schizophrenia unexpectedly recovering. The brain’s native reinforcement learning algorithms cash out in the phenomena of classical and operant conditioning; different reinforcement schedules reinforce at different levels, which can be exploited by bad actors to make especially compelling products (eg slot machines). None of these are immune to doubt. A few are speculative; one or two are genuinely unorthodox. But they’re all a step above one p = 0.049 paper that might not replicate. If they get overturned, they’ll be overturned by the same sort of genuine scientific shift that replaced Ptolemy with Copernicus or Lamarck with Darwin, not some sort of sordid discovery about someone entering random numbers into a spreadsheet. In 2008, Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote about The Beauty Of Settled Science: If you only care about scientific issues that are controversial, you will end up with a head stuffed full of garbage. The media thinks that only the cutting edge of science is worth reporting on. How often do you see headlines like “General Relativity still governing planetary orbits” or “Phlogiston theory remains false”? So, by the time anything is solid science, it is no longer a breaking headline. “Newsworthy” science is often based on the thinnest of evidence and wrong half the time—if it were not on the uttermost fringes of the scientific frontier, it would not be breaking news. Scientific controversies are problems so difficult that even people who’ve spent years mastering the field can still fool themselves. That’s what makes for the heated arguments that attract all the media attention. Worse, if you aren’t in the field and part of the game, controversies aren’t even fun. Don’t be embarrassed to read elementary science textbooks, either. If you want to pretend to be sophisticated, go find a play to sneer at. If you just want to have fun, remember that simplicity is at the core of scientific beauty [...] A steady diet of science news is bad for you: You are what you eat, and if you eat only science reporting on fluid situations, without a solid textbook now and then, your brain will turn to liquid. Psychology isn’t centrally the new paper in Annals Of Recently-Breaking News saying that an n=5 study showing that large portion sizes increase support for terrorism. Psychology is centrally ideas like brain waves, GABA receptors, reinforcement learning, twin studies, and connectionism. People who think differently are worrying too much about BREAKING NEWS!!!, and should stop. The key distinction isn’t “recent research in social psychology” vs. “recent research in cognitive/bio/behavioral psychology”, as my essay last week unfortunately implied. It’s recent research in general vs. the deposit of settled science, battle-tested hypotheses, and carefully-earmarked speculation. And part of the reason social priming in particular was such a disaster was that it defied that heuristic, building itself up over hundreds of studies until it approached or even entered the pantheon of settled science - before collapsing (5-HTTLPR was also sort of like this). This isn’t a claim that settled science is always right - Freud was “settled science” for a long time - just that there’s an intuitive distinction between the level of credence you should have in the existence of power posing vs. the existence of Broca’s Area. (I compounded this error by calling the last post “Psychology Research Is Mostly Fine”, which suggested I was talking about the new research rather than the settled science. I actually meant to distinguish between research-psychology-the-field vs. clinical-psychology-aka-therapy, but this framing unintentionally pushed against the point I wanted to make) Some commenters on the previous article understood this point, but challenged its weight. It’s very cool, they said, to know how many neurons are in which brain lobe, but the main way that Psychology affected their lives was through bad clickbait studies used to buttress dumb policies; some p = 0.049 study says that exposure to microaggressions makes minorities’ brains shrivel into raisins, and now their company has to implement punitive DEI or be sued for hazardous work conditions. I won’t dispute this as an accurate description of how the sausage gets made, but it’s worth examining the trains of thought that connect this observation to a campaign against psychology in general: The dumb woke psychology was wrong and bad, and I don’t have good heuristics for distinguishing dumb woke psychology from other psychology, so I’m going to assume it’s all wrong and bad. The dumb woke psychology was wrong and bad; it seems useful to punish/discredit psychology as a whole to assist my campaign against it, so for propaganda purposes I will try to discredit psychology as a whole. To people in the first camp, my response is: come on, your heuristics aren’t that bad. “Microaggressions makes minorities’ brains shrivel up like raisins” is in the woke category; “the hippocampal theta rhythm seems to be associated with both memory and pathfinding, suggesting an unexpected yet surprisingly compelling relationship between the two” is in the not-woke category, don’t play dumb here. To people in the second camp, my response is: deliberately exaggerated propaganda campaigns are bad and this is a confession, not an excuse. Inability to view science through anything but a political lens was what got us into this problem; doubling down on it is a temporary solution but a recipe for permanent disaster. If you pronounce entire fields of science to be acceptable collateral damage in your campaign against bad political actors, you will alienate not just scientists but patients, clinicians, and general lovers of truth. Instead, you can say the thing you mean - that woke partisans shouldn’t try to occupy and exploit the otherwise-noble science of psychology for their own political gain - and wage the same campaign with a halo rather than a comic-book-villain goatee. From the font of oracular wisdom that is Weird Sun Twitter: [ Vessel Of Spirit@VesselOfSpirit i love you all conditionally but i love the good part of you unconditionally. even if it becomes a very small part 2:11 AM · Jan 22, 2015 1 Reply · 5 Reposts · 29 Likes ](https://x.com/VesselOfSpirit/status/558084551772471298) This is how I feel about psychology1, too, but with a touch more optimism. The good part of psychology is enormous, a hoard of endless treasures. You just have to look past the headlines! 1 To play devil’s advocate - should one always be so magnamious? Astrology? Phrenology? These seem different in that their entire orientation was flawed from the start; they didn’t simply fail to find the correct constellation-personality connections, the whole project of searching for connections between constellations and personality was doomed from the start. More difficult might be asking the same question about education research, which is notoriously bad. I don’t know enough about education research to know if there’s some settled science of correct and enlightening results lurking in the background beyond the day-to-day froth of poorly-conducted and politically-motivated studies. I think if it’s 90% bad, 10% good, it’s correct to call it bad as a compact way of communicating a useful truth; I think psychology is better than that, but admit it’s a tough judgment call.
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August 6 Vallejo/Vacaville Arts-Entertainment Source: Activities
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Read the key chapter in dispute
Here is the section that the author of the Democratic Party’s 2024 autopsy says was missing when the Democratic National Committee released a draft of the overall document in May. The party denied ever receiving the chapter.
Opinion | A Reading List for Our Age of A.I.
A.I. is a political theory. And it is gobbling up our democracy.
Ukraine giving AWOL troops choice of 70 units to rejoin the war with
Kyiv says troops can use a mobile app to skip much of the return process and deploy immediately to their new, preferred unit.
Padres Reportedly Turned Down Offer From Yankees For Adrian Morejon
San Diego rebuffed New York’s pursuit of the All-Star southpaw, reportedly declining a deal for Will Warren as the surging Friars reconsider their deadline strategy and roster depth.
Marlins vs Mets Highlights ⚾️ MLB on FOX
Watch the best highlights between the Miami Marlins and the New York Mets.
For a Day, Google Made It Easy to Spoof Satellite Imagery
A new Google Earth tool allowed the creation of A.I. deepfake maps. The tech giant quickly pulled it back after a backlash and concerns about disinformation risks.
Ohio GOP Rep. Miller says 'I'm not dropping out,' defends himself against claims of domestic abuse
Ohio Republican Rep. Max Miller is pledging to remain in his race for reelection.
Why Congressman Vince Fong is urging the Trump administration to reject a health tax in California
Congressman Vince Fong has voiced strong opposition to Governor Gavin Newsom’s proposed changes to California’s Managed Care Organization tax, arguing that the plan misuses resources and worsens the state’s affordability crisis.
Why Congressman Vince Fong is urging the Trump administration to reject a health tax in California
Congressman Vince Fong has voiced strong opposition to Governor Gavin Newsom’s proposed changes to California’s Managed Care Organization tax, arguing that the plan misuses resources and worsens the state’s affordability crisis.
Addison police officer offers mental health training sessions for fellow officers
Officer Andrew Kolodziej is a 12-year veteran with the Addison Police Department.
Stuttgart reject Beşiktaş offer for defensive leader Jeff Chabot (28)
Kicker reports that VfB Stuttgart have rejected a Beşiktaş offer for defensive leader Jeff Chabot. The German magazine reports that the Istanbul-based club were prepared to pay just under €10m for...
The Ultra-Rich Are Moving to Miami, and Want Their Money Managers There, Too
Tax incentives, among other benefits, have drawn the ultrawealthy to the city. And they need space for the firms that manage their money.
How a Top Law Firm Went From Standing Up to Trump to Bending the Knee
Paul Weiss was a progressive stalwart for decades and led the legal resistance against President Trump in his first term. Then it surrendered without a fight. This is the inside story of its transformation.
Sophie Cunningham isn’t rejecting politics. She’s cashing in on them
Sophie Cunningham’s rise says less about basketball than the incentives of a sports culture where outrage, identity politics and attention have become lucrative commodities
Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday, 8/1/26
Welcome to the Overnight News Digest with a crew consisting of founder Magnifico, regular editors side pocket, maggiejean, Chitown Kev, eeff, Magnifico, annetteboardman, Besame, jck, JeremyBloom…
Bobby Halford inducted into Mississippi Sports Hall of Fame
William Carey coach headlines seven-member class of 2026 alongside football legends and an Olympic gold medalist
Yoshinobu Yamamoto goes deep, Dodgers can’t support him
Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched eight strong innings, but the Dodgers offense didn’t support him, falling to the Boston Red Sox 3-2 on Saturday night at Dodger Stadium. Yamamoto, who leads MLB averaging 6.68 innings per start, completed eight innings for the fourth time this season, tying Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara for the major league lead. Yamamoto […]
Chile declares health alert for hantavirus
The Chile Ministry of Health issued a Health Alert for hantavirus and other diseases, such as some arboviruses and avian influenza. This is the first time this measure has been taken and it will be in effect until July 31, 2027 and it extends from the Atacama region to the Magallanes region. “Hantavirus causes a disease that is endemic to Chile, transmitted by the long-tailed pygmy rice rat that lives in rural and semi-rural areas throughout almost the entire country. As a ministry, we are constantly monitoring its behavior and are very concerned and actively working because this year the virus's lethality has increased, and for this reason, we decided to declare this alert. As of last week, there were 46 confirmed cases and 18 deaths, representing a 39% lethality rate,” reported the Undersecretary of Public Health, Dr. Alejandra Pizarro. Cases have occurred in the regions of Valparaíso, Metropolitan, O'Higgins, Maule, Ñuble, Biobío, La Araucanía, Los Ríos, Los Lagos, and Aysén. By comparison, in 2025, there were 44 infections and eight deaths (18% case fatality rate). The health alert, which is preventative and prepared, will allow for the granting of extraordinary powers in the event of serious health emergencies to strengthen surveillance, ensure timely resource management, hire specialized personnel, implement health control measures, and expedite the acquisition of supplies through direct procurement. The alert does not imply that there is an ongoing epidemic or that the healthcare system is overwhelmed. Subscribe to Outbreak News TV on YouTube “Hantavirus is not exclusively a summer virus, as the long-tailed pygmy rice rat is present year-round. Therefore, we urge everyone to take extreme precautions: avoid touching rodents, ventilate homes before entering if they have been closed, clean unused spaces with water and bleach, and keep garbage covered and food stored away. Furthermore, it is crucial to be aware of the symptoms: fever, intense muscle pain, and difficulty breathing. If someone experiences these symptoms and has been in rural or semi-rural areas where the long-tailed pygmy rice rat may have been present, they should immediately go to a health center and inform the medical staff so that a hantavirus diagnosis can be considered promptly,” the official added. Since December 2025, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has maintained an epidemiological alert due to the rise in hantavirus cases throughout the Southern Cone, and that the Ministry of Health had an epidemiological alert in place since November of last year. Chile eliminates leprosy As mentioned above, the Health Alert decree also covers diseases transmitted by the Aedes aegypti, Aedes vexans, and Anopheles pseudopunctipennis mosquitoes, such as dengue and Zika, which, according to the alert, “have a high epidemic potential, which could generate high demand and overload for health facilities.” For these diseases, the alert is in effect from Arica to Los Ríos. The authority stressed that it is essential to prevent mosquitoes from breeding in stagnant water and to monitor any suspected cases of people arriving from abroad infected with any of these diseases, in order to prevent any of these vectors from biting a sick person and starting to spread the disease. In the case of avian influenza, the alert was extended to the entire country, because unlike other years, the disease has been concentrated in wild and farm birds, not in poultry farms, increasing the risk of exposure for people. Outbreak News Today is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe
Opinion | What Happens to America’s Political Parties After Trump?
Democrats have an anger problem. Republicans have a Trump problem.
Video: Opinion | What Happens to America’s Political Parties After Trump?
Democrats have an anger problem. Republicans have a Trump problem.
By rejecting Browns narrative, Jimmy Haslam reveals real plan. Opinion
The expansion-era Browns have never hosted a playoff game on Cleveland's lakefront. With a new stadium in the works, time is running out.
Is Kevin Durant Going to Rejoin With Steph Curry?
The Houston Rockets Might Send Kevin Durant to the Golden State Warriors
WATCH: Booker continues to reject SAVE Act despite bombshell NJ voter roll scandal
Cory Booker says the SAVE Act would not have prevented the New Jersey software error that made roughly 6,600 noncitizens eligible to vote.
Trump rejects Iran blame for Minnesota cyberattack, points finger at 'corrupt' political foe
Trump dismissed claims that Iranian hackers targeted Minnesota water systems, instead blaming the state's governor for what he called gross incompetence.
Canada's Enbridge postpones plans for second phase of Mainline oil pipeline expansion
Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge said on Friday it was postponing the 250,000-barrel-per-day second phase of its Mainline crude pipeline network, partly due to Canadian oil producers not committing to significant output increases.
FIFA tests the limits of private equity in sports with World Cup subsidiary sale
UEFA and Concacaf's rejection of FIFA's plan to sell a 20% stake in the World Cup's commercial operations highlights uneasiness with private equity in sports.
ISP investigating after woman found dead near Anna business
Illinois State Police are investigating after a woman was found dead near a business in Anna.
Video: Opinion | A Doctor Weighs In on the Health Tracking Craze
If a fitness enthusiast like Joe Rogan wants to scan his body ad nauseam to track his wellness, that’s fine, says Dr. Rachael Bedard on “The Opinions.” But using those scans to look for medical abnormalities can lead to costly, potentially harmful follow-up tests.
FIFA wants World Cup expansion assessment amid pressure on Infantino
FIFA is seeking an independent agency to assess the expansion of the men’s World Cup to 64 teams, according to documents seen by the Press Association. FIFA’s president, Gianni Infantino, is under increasing pressure amid mounting opposition to plans to seek private investment in a company which would run the World Cup, with three confederations having rejected it and his senior adviser having quit over it.
The competition passed on a flying toy. We built it into $100 million dollar business
In his new book, Spin Master's Ronnen Harary explains how three founders in their 20s took a toy everyone rejected and turned it into Air Hogs.
Judge rejects lawsuit from 26 states challenging Medicaid work requirements
A U.S. District Court judge ruled that the states were unable to show they would be irreparably harmed by complying with the policy, as the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services is covering 90% of the associated costs.
College Sports Commission approves reworked NIL deals worth total of $7.5M for 18 Nebraska players
The College Sports Commission has approved $7.5 million in restructured name, image and likeness opportunities spread among 18 Nebraska football players after those deals initially were rejected in a decision upheld by an arbitrator two months ago.
Tesla weighs sale of China business to pave way for potential SpaceX merger, WSJ reports
Tesla executives have been told to prepare for a separation of its China business ahead of potential merger with SpaceX , the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing a person familiar with the talks.
‘This Is Very Strange’: Ancient Smallpox May Have Been Less Deadly
Scientists have found smallpox viruses in the remains of people in Chile from around 500 years ago, revealing how the virus may have evolved into a global killer.
Business owners call on N.C. House to reject proposed ban on most hemp products
Dozens of bars, breweries, and other businesses that sell hemp and THC beverages are asking state lawmakers to change a pending bill that could ban most hemp products in North Carolina.
Summer program explores outer space with science fair and planetarium
With summer in full swing, students at Stout Middle School turned their curiosity toward the stars this week during the DiscoverWorks Program. Throughout the five-week program, students have...
Top US science journals more likely to reject paper by Chinese authors: study
Journal of Business announces 2026 Rising Stars
The Journal of Business has selected 10 Spokane-area young professionals to be honored as the 2026 Rising Stars. This year’s slate of honorees includes six women and four men. They mark the 13th class of Rising Stars to be spotlighted by the Journal.
Meet & Greet with Laura Galloway
Laura Galloway began her new role as dean of Whitworth University’s School of Business on July 1 after relocating to Spokane from San Diego, where she previously worked for University of Massachusetts Global, a California-based online institution, most recently as associate vice chancellor for institutional curriculum, assessment, and academic policy.
Lilian Weng returns to OpenAI after leaving Thinking Machines Lab
Lilian Weng, a cofounder of Thinking Machines Lab, rejoins OpenAI to lead an AI research team that will aid the push for self-improving AI.
Texas health issues alert after 4 Montgomery County residents infected with measles
Texas health officials are warning residents and health care providers to stay alert after four cases of measles were confirmed in an unvaccinated Montgomery County family.
Greer OKs $685K for sports and events center furniture: City Council notes
Council approved spending $685,000 for a furniture package to equip the Greer Sports and Events Center.
Science and Scripture both reject racist church doctrine
A former church member reflects on science, religious racism, diversity, melanin and why faith should reject prejudice in favor of truth, dignity and inclusion.
The power plant players unlocking the grid | Investors Lab
History is full of aha moments where an apparent failure was actually the breakthrough people didn't know they needed. Take champagne, discovered when French winemakers kept finding their bottles exploding under pressure. Or sticky notes, developed from a glue that was rejected by leadership at 3M for being too weak, but later redeployed for the purpose we all know and love. Nuclear fusion just experienced another of these serendipitous discoveries. For decades, it wasn't clear how the subatomic particles known as alpha particles would affect the turbulence that drains heat from a reactor's core, preventing the reactor from reaching self-sustaining fusion. Now, new simulations suggest that the particles help. The new research turns what was once viewed as a potential operational hindrance into a critical performance booster. SN's Emily Conover has the info blast.
Draft Signing Deadline: Jays Sign All Expected Players
The deadline for signing 2026 MLB draft picks was at 5:00pm ET on Monday. The Toronto Blue Jays had 19 picks in this year’s draft, having forfeited their 2nd and 4th round selections for signing Dylan Cease after he rejected the San Diego Padres’ qualifying offer but receiving a compensation pick in the fourth round […]
Opinion | Is More Data About Your Body Actually Good for You?
The Silicon Valley health trend making doctors nervous.
Analysis | What the midterms mean for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s 2028 hopes
A Democratic sweep of Pennsylvania’s competitive U.S. House and state legislative races could boost the case for Shapiro in his party’s presidential primary.
Costco midtown store nears business center switch amid concerns, may keep pharmacy
Councilman Crispin Rea said keeping the pharmacy would be “a big win” for the neighborhood’s most vulnerable residents.
Iran Considered Retaliatory Strike on Ukrainian Seaport
A flurry of diplomacy has eased tensions, officials said, after an incident risked triggering a wider war.
SEC’s New Targeting Rule A Win For Common Sense
SEC Media Days 2026 was, as usual, a lot of sizzle and very little steak. But one announcement was significant enough that it merits further consideration. The league announced that beginning in 2026 a player’s first targeting ejection of the season will no longer carry an automatic suspension into the next game. The player is […]
Cyclospora cases have increased in Douglas County, health officials say
Cyclospora cases in Douglas County continue to rise, with the Douglas County Health Department having tallied the cases at 45.
A steward’s view on how business can rebuild Earth systems
Business is one of the most powerful levers for transformation when it comes to climate and nature, and needs to rethink how modern systems are designed.
Washburn football is a family business for J.C. Heim
Heim, a Topeka native, has 2 brothers playing alongside him at Washburn this fall.
Alejandro Kirk loses grip on bat and sends it flying into the dugout, shattering window in win over Nationals
Alejandro Kirk's bat just narrowly missed a camera on Monday night in Washington.
Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes’ daughter Suri drops dad’s last name
Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes’ 20-year-old daughter Suri drops dad’s last name in favor of mom’s middle name, Noelle.
House ethics panel investigating Gooden, who rejected the allegations
Gooden said allegations related to spending are ‘baseless.’
The Latest: Appeals court upholds injunction that blocks Trump’s order to create federal voter list
A federal appeals court has upheld a ruling that halted President Donald Trump’s executive order to create a federal list of eligible voters and limit delivery of mail ballots only to people on that list. The ruling over the weekend rejected the Trump administration’s effort to move forward with ...
Ndiaye future uncertain amid Al-Hilal interest
Al Hilal have expressed an interest in Everton forward Iliman Ndiaye, who has rejected multiple contract offers on Merseyside. The 26-year-old has also held talks with the Saudi Pro League club, but they have not made a formal offer as they explore a number of attacking options. However, Ndiaye's future has been thrown into doubt by him so far being unable to agree new terms with the Toffees.
Tadej Pogacar opens door to Vuelta participation after making more Tour de France history
Pogacar secured a record-equalling fifth yellow jersey but is yet to taste Vuelta success
Tottenham boss hints over Moore future
Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi has hinted Mikey Moore may be allowed to leave the club again this summer after the 18-year-old winger's loan to Rangers last season. Herald - subscription required) Serbia midfielder Vanja Dragojevic rejected Benfica, Eintracht Frankfurt, Anderlecht, Club Brugge, PAOK and Copenhagen to join Rangers from Partizan. Dakeer Mohamed Thanveer) Rangers manager Derek McInnes has made his decision over who will be the new club captain, despite having five different players wear the armband during pre-season.
Gossip: Zirkzee wanted by Juventus
Serie A side Juventus are working on a deal to sign forward Joshua Zirkzee from Manchester United. (Gazzetta dello Sport - in Italian)
Gossip: Fulham frontrunners for Real Madrid's Mastantuono
Fulham are the leading option for 18-year-old Argentina midfielder Franco Mastantuono if Real Madrid send him on loan this season. (AS - in Spanish)
Gossip: PSG want £145m for Reds target Barcola
Paris St-Germain want £145m for 23-year-old France forward Bradley Barcola, with Liverpool and Arsenal interested. Times - subscription required) Chelsea will demand a significant fee for Portugal winger Pedro Neto, 26, amid interest from Liverpool, Manchester City and Saudi Arabian teams. (Mail)
FDA rejects application for new oral MR imaging contrast agent
Biotechnology firm Ascelia Pharma is working to roll out Orviglance, a novel manganese-based product for visualizing focal liver lesions during MRI, but faced a recent setback.
Wildfire Disruptions to the Tour de France Show How Climate Change Is Shaping Sports
Tadej Pogačar's fifth Tour de France victory came after last-minute course changes due to wildfires, underscoring how climate change is influencing major sporting events.
United quietly pursued a merger with Delta last year: report
The Wall Street Journal reports Chicago-based United Airlines approached Delta last year about a merger, but talks ended before advancing.
What to Expect From Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4
Bloomberg's Mark Gurman today outlined what to expect from the Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4 this year. Spoiler: not very much. While it was rumored that Touch ID may be coming to the Apple Watch Series 12, Gurman said he does not expect the Series 12 or Ultra 4 to have any major design changes compared to the current Series 11 and Ultra 3 models. Touch ID probably counts as a major design change, so the rumor now sounds increasingly unlikely.
Andrej Kostić in the Rossoneri world
Andrej Kostić in the Rossoneri world
Titans' Jeffery Simmons named potential MVP candidate
NFL analyst Kevin Patra names Tennessee Titans star Jeffery Simmons as a top MVP candidate under new coach Robert Saleh.
Lazio Reject Sporting Club Offer for Defender Considered Untouchable
Sporting CP reportedly tried to sign Lazio centre-back Oliver Provstgaard, but he’s now considered off the market.Oliver Provstgaard Enjoying Steady Rise at LazioThe 23-year-old joined the Biancocel...
A Son of Wealth Finds His Calling in a High-End Grocery Store
How the scion Sammy Nussdorf found his calling among the carefully arranged shelves of Meadow Lane, his chic market in Lower Manhattan.
Book Review: ‘Furious Violet,’ by Sarai Walker
Sarai Walker’s “Furious Violet” is a psychological thriller about the kind of woman the genre — and the world — typically overlooks.
Brazil denies entry to Trump officials ahead of elections
Brazil rejected visas for two planned US envoys, alleging that Washington was seeking to shape Brazil's upcoming presidential election. The development adds to a deepening political tension between Brazil and the US.