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Sunday Bantering
It must be fun to be a manager and a pitching coach. Ok, we have Shane Bieber back and ready to go. Three starts in, he has a 9.00 ERA. 7 walks and 9 strikeouts in 13 innings. Batters are hitting .351/.422/.737 against him. His fastball velocity is at the 15th percentile and average exit […]
Jacob Misiorowski's All-Star Game dream might come down to weather
Jacob Misiorowski has become must-see TV. Now weather and timing could determine whether fans see the Brewers ace on All-Star night.
Vance hopes Burnham delivers ‘structural change’ amid ‘broken’ UK politics
The US vice-president said the next prime minister must figure out ‘how to get Britain back on track’.
Secure the Future of Children's Health Care Coverage
Nearly half of America's children rely on Medicaid and CHIP for their health coverage. This fact sheet lays out the steps Congress must take to secure children's health care coverage for the future.
Letter: Oklahoma must face its maternal health crisis
Oklahoma generally scores below the majority of states in terms of maternal health metrics, highlighting gaps in access to care and resources.
Royals vs Phillies, July 4 game discussion
The Royals must battle for their independence from the MLB cellar against one of the best teams in baseball
Falcons training camp spotlight: UDFA running back Cash Jones
Falcons training camp spotlight: Ex Georgia RB Cash Jones must showcase versatility
Business Travel Is Back, But New Data Finds Serious Concerns Among 2/3 of Employees
Rising demand for business travel is being challenged by growing safety fears. Organizations must offer better support for employees.
Miss Manners: My friend can’t stop talking politics at our parties
A host is frustrated with a friend who constantly brings up politics at parties despite being asked to keep the mood light, and wonders whether they must continue inviting him since he lives nearby.
A July 4th classic, “Silo” season 3, and an expanded “Backrooms” top this week's Must List
Madonna's "Confessions II" and "Birthright" round out our picks for the weekend of July 3.
Long Reads for the Long Weekend
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) Happy Fourth of July weekend! As has been a tradition of mine going back to the beginning of the EntStrategyGuy website, I’m sharing my favorite long reads of the last year, like I did in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024, and 2025. Let’s dive right in! Subscribe “Different Prices for the Same Ride: How Uber and Lyft Use AI to Get More Money Out of You“ by Derek Kravitz in Consumer Reports I don’t think surveillance pricing, like the kind described in this brilliant Consumer Reports article, is long for the world—it’s toxically unpopular—but we’ll see if either party takes on this issue. If I ran a political party focused on affordability, I would focus on a few pro-consumer and pro-market policies: Banning non-compete agreements. Ending surveillance pricing Eliminating junk fees (read more here...) Ensuring “right to repair” for consumer (and military!) products Capping excessive app store fees Stopping digital/algorithmic price-fixing tools. Preventing automatic subscription price increases. And more. If you want to fight inflation, there are a lot of great ways to do it quickly. Speaking of higher prices... “Secret Documents Show Pepsi and Walmart Colluded to Raise Food Prices Across the Economy“ by Matt Stoller in BIG Again, I think a political party should focus on lowering prices for consumers. And deals like this—Walmart making a deal/forcing Pepsi to offer the lowest prices at its stores and nowhere else—hypothetically lower prices at Walmart...but raise them everywhere else. “15 DUIs, still driving: California’s failure to take repeat drunk drivers off the road“ by Robert Lewis and Lauren Hepler in CalMatters CalMatters does terrific reporting in California, something the Golden State desperately needs more of, and this article is a great example of that. “PugLips: The next insanely popular thing you’ve never heard of…” by Simon Carless in Game Discover Co I thought that this parody article (and yes, it’s a parody, but I was definitely unsure at first) was hilarious and totally nailed how much tech/business journalism feels these days. Actually, three of my favorite articles this year were on hype in the video game industry, including Georg Zoller’s “The Video Game Industries Very Dark Night”—which I linked to recently and wrote a follow-up here—and Owen Mahoney’s “Derek Zoolander, Videogame Exec”. In particular, I like Mahoney’s focus on user experience as a guide to what trends will actually grab hold of customers. “The Matrix Lies“ by Evan Shapiro in Media War & Peace Evan Shapiro’s first person account of his experience with AI was hilarious. I think LLMs capabilities have significantly grown from last summer, and yet...my editor/researcher just had an abysmal experience using an LLM to do a quite basic task (which our LLM normally does each week) and the LLM made a mistake on every single data entry...along with seven different mistakes affecting twelve of the twenty or so entries, including mistakes that are explicitly spelled out in the prompt. That’s a brutal failure rate. Again, if you use AI/LLM for data collection, you need to take a lot of extra steps to verify and check the data. “Ghosts in the Balcony: A Cross-Country Trip to 58 Theaters Fighting to Survive“ by Matthew Frank in The Ankler I thought Matthew Frank’s pitch to head across America to visit theaters sounded insane aggressive at the time—at least it felt that way to someone a decade older than him; man, to be in your twenties again, am I right?—but I knew the result would be great. And it was, a terrific feature by a great young writer. Also, I loved Matthew’s recent article on who’s getting the precious few entry level jobs in Hollywood. (Hint: nepotism.) “Disney erased FiveThirtyEight“ and “Did Las Vegas get too greedy?” by Nate Silver in Silver Bulletin I love media history and analysis, and there’s no one better to get the history of FiveThirtyEight than from Nate Silver, who wrote about his personal experience in one of my favorite pieces from this year. I also loved Nate’s breakdown of what’s causing Vegas’ woes, but I’ll offer one criticism, summarized as “Might I suggest antitrust?” Many centrists/center-right/libertarian thinkers (Nate is self-described as the latter) often don’t consider consolidation or antitrust as factors in policy issues like housing, America’s military readiness, or, in this case, Las Vegas. Even if libertarians want to debunk antitrust/consolidation concerns, I’d love to read that debunking. In this case, Vegas is incredibly consolidated (though it also has been for a long time) and I’d have loved to read Nate at least contending with this factor, since he addresses almost every other potential factor for Vegas’ decline. “Why Microsoft’s Carbon Removal Pullback Is Such a Big Deal“ by Robinson Meyer in Heatmap News I’m a big supporter of carbon removal efforts, but this nascent industry faces a lot of headwinds, including this big move most recently. I think it’s clear that solar panels and batteries should be able to get the world to its carbon footprint goals, but effective carbon renewal remains necessary to prevent the worst impacts of global warming. “AI is killing the cheap smartphone“ by David Oks LLMs and AI will impact the world in ways we’re not ready for, and already, third world countries are seeing the prices of cheap cellphones skyrocket due to the cost of chips skyrocketing. This article by David Oks is a terrific breakdown. “100 Days of Madness: Netflix, Paramount, Warner and the Future of Hollywood“ by Wade Major at Hollywood Heretic Wade Major dove deep into Hollywood/streaming’s financials in this must read piece. Not that I agree with everything in this article (read my take on Warner Bros./Paramount here) but the analysis is top notch. I think many people discount how quality thinking, regardless of the argument/conclusion, will make you a better thinker. “Erased by the UFC: Frank Shamrock, The MMA GOAT of the 20th Century“ by Nate Wilcox in The MMA Draw Newsletter Growing up playing the UFC fighting game on the Dreamcast, Frank Shamrock was my favorite MMA fighter, and this history/tribute to him was great. Other Fun Reads “The Hardest Part Of History To Tell Is How It Felt“ by Craig Fehrman at Defector “Unmasking the Sea Star Killer“ by Craig Welch at bioGraphic “What Could Save the Industry? Fin-Syn“ by Richard Rushfield in The Ankler Alex Rollins Berg in Underexposed on movie bumpers, pillow shots, Disney trash cinema, cult films, and Casablanca. David H. Montgomery in YouGov’s The Surveyor on punctuation marks, condiments, dinosaurs, and comic strips and kids media. “How Medium finally pivoted its way to profitability“ and “Why the best journalists on YouTube are all former Vox employees“ by Simon Owens in Simon Owens’s Media Newsletter “It’s Not Just You, Netflix Shows Have Gotten Slightly Shorter: Here’s What the Data Says“ by Kasey Moore at What’s on Netflix “Numlock Awards: How Diane Warren became the biggest loser in Oscar history“ by Nathaniel Rakich and “Numlock Awards: The Oscar Bait era is over. The Oscar Chum era is here.” by Walt Hickey & Michael Domanico at Numlock Awards
📝 2026 World Cup, overnight recap
Every morning, OneFootball brings you a full recap of the night’s action at the World Cup.The must-see moment of the nightDid the craziest moment of this World Cup happen last night, during the roun...
Are Europe’s extreme summers the new normal? What the science says
WHO warns Europe must 'plan for heat like winter flu' as experts reveal how permanent this summer's extreme heat is.
Midnight Mania! Timid Referees ‘Hurting The Sport’ Must Be Held Accountable
Bringing you the weird and wild from the world of MMA each and every weeknight!
Businesses Are Stuck in an Efficiency Illusion — Here's Why More Decks Don't Mean Better Decisions
In an AI-accelerated workplace where output is increasingly easy to generate, real professional value comes from judgment, restraint and clarity. Here's why professionals must move beyond volume-based execution and learn to deliver the strategic conviction leaders actually trust.
Ocasio-Cortez Endorses Abdul El-Sayed in Crucial Michigan Senate Race
The endorsement is the first in a contested Senate primary by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez this year, in a state that Democrats believe they must hold this fall to win a Senate majority.
🌈 The political fatigue of doing feminist and queer research in anti-gender times
Anti-gender politics does not only attack rights. It attacks the knowledge that makes those rights intelligible. Massimo Prearo argues that anti-gender politics is an epistemic conflict as much as a political one. This conflict generates political fatigue among researchers engaged in feminist and queer work. We must address such fatigue through distance, care and collective reflection
Cincinnati Reds' Offense Goes Quiet in Loss to Brewers
Noelvi Marte’s two-run homer was the only offense Cincinnati could muster in a 4-2 loss to Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Vinton Cerf says AI must learn these 3 lessons
From standardization to turning a product into a platform, Vinton Cerf said there are lessons AI must learn from the internet boom.
State Gaming Commission orders racetracks to implement fire safety measures
Racetracks across New York must implement fire safety provisions in response to directives issued by the New York State Gaming Commission.
The 4 must-watch science-fiction films of the year so far
The first six months of 2026 have produced four stand-out sci-fi movies – and they all have one thing in common, says Bethan Ackerley
Business Income Has Moved Beyond Corporations, and Tax Policy Must Follow
Since the 1980s, partnerships have displaced traditional C corporations as the largest source of business income, transforming business taxation and contributing to rising economic inequality.
Lawmakers must put women’s health, dignity and lives ahead of politics
Each year since the fall of Roe, the Louisiana Legislature has advanced increasingly aggressive versions of the state's abortion ban, often under the guise of targeting bad actors.
Lawmakers must put women’s health, dignity and lives ahead of politics
Each year since the fall of Roe, the Louisiana Legislature has advanced increasingly aggressive versions of the state's abortion ban, often under the guise of targeting bad actors.
The cube was a lie: up close with our Dbrand Companion Cube before it gets destroyed
We did what we must, because we can.
10 questions the Steelers must answer at training camp
When the Steelers get together for training camp, here are the 10 questions they have to answer.
Xbox ends deal to fund and publish IO Interactive's Project Fantasy; redundancies expected
Developer says it must "adapt to new reality" as Xbox reshapes investment priorities
Getty Images Plans to End Shutterstock Deal After U.K. Imposes Conditions
Getty Images plans to terminate its merger agreement with Shutterstock after a U.K. regulator said the latter company must sell its editorial business in order for the merger to be approved.
The Science of NAD+: Why We Must Shift from Lifespan to Healthspan
Discover the science of NAD+ and how it impacts your healthspan. Watch Mona Rosene explain cellular repair and how to fight aging from within.
Google kills Tenor GIF API, forcing changes at X, Discord, and more
Tenor still connects to Google apps, but other platforms must look elsewhere for GIFs.
CitrixBleed To Infinity And Beyond (Citrix NetScaler Pre-Auth Memory Overread CVE-2026-8451)
Well, well, well - once again, the cat has dragged us in, and spat us out. Today, we find ourselves questioning the reality we sit within. Must it be so predictable, and why us? “But watchTowr, what do you mean?” Well, if you’re here, you likely fit into one of
CalChamber has lost the plot: It’s time to reclaim the fight for California business
CalChamber must stop asking for a seat at the table and start demanding a change in the menu.
Santa Cruz County business filings: Week of June 30
Businesses operating in Santa Cruz County must register with the county clerk. Lookout Santa Cruz reviews the public filings from local businesses to report on new businesses starting in the area.
Viewpoint: We must support girls in outdoor science fields
Marilyn Marler writes, Studies show that girls start losing interest in science and math around middle school and, as a result, women are often underrepresented in these professional fields.
Analysis | Democrats turn to unconventional organizing in an atypical ‘must-win’ Senate race
Alaska presents myriad challenges to political organizers.
Radiology providers must pay $7M, modify policies after breast cancer miss
Radiologist Henry C. Lusane, MD, with Acumen Medical Imaging, interpreted the scans, reporting the mass as benign, a mistake later leading to a terminal cancer diagnosis.
Union Pacific And Norfolk Southern: How Politics Can Have A Body Count
Advances in goods shipment must be achieved not to bring harm to the trucking industry, but to protect increasingly acquisitive Americans from death born of their wealth.
Science and Technology Must Deliver for the Public
The United States has never lacked for scientific ambition. What we need now is a renewed civic commitment to ensuring that talent is harnessed for the benefit of all people. Science can work for everyone. Join us as we build a broader coalition committed to that vision.
'All INdiana Politics'
U.S. Sen. Todd Young has said that a proposed $300 billion payment to Iran would not be funded by American taxpayers, and that any ceasefire with Iran must be contingent on the dismantlement of its nuclear program, while Indiana Senators Young and Banks have split on a housing bill now awaiting President Trump's signature.
Mel Brooks turns 100: His 5 essential movies
As Mel Brooks turns 100 today, here are the 5 must-watch comedies from his hilarious canon of work.
Driving A New Ford Mustang Mach-E After 5 Years Feels So Much Better
The 2026 Ford Mustang Mach-E isn't drastically different from its original 2021 version, but small improvements and a price dip make it a better EV purchase.
This Week's 10 Must-Read Stories on Women in Politics: Title IX Anniversary, AI's Anti-Women Bias and Ranked-Choice Voting Victories
Weekend Reading on Women’s Representation is a weekly compilation of stories about women’s representation in politics, on boards, in sports and entertainment, in judicial offices and in the private sector in the U.S. and around the world—with a little gardening and goodwill mixed in for refreshment! Published every Friday. —This week marked the 54th anniversary of Title IX. —As the Taliban approaches the five-year mark of its return to power this August, a rare protest in western Afghanistan last week laid bare both the brutality of its rule and the resilience of those living under it. —A woman will replace Eric Swalwell in California … but for not two more months. —A study of 133 AI systems found that 44 percent demonstrated gender bias, and more than a quarter showed both gender and racial bias. ... and more.
EA Sports College Football 27 Will Be Without Two Surprising Stars
One of the most anticipated video game releases of the year is set to arrive on July 9 when EA Sports releases College Football 27 worldwide.This marks the third consecutive annual release since the series returned after an 11-year hiatus.Players who want to be included in the game must actively opt in through a structured […] The post EA Sports College Football 27 Will Be Without Two Surprising Stars appeared first on HEAVY.
A new “Supergirl”, the end of “The Bear”, and a fisherman thriller top this week's Must List
Book of Love's 40th anniversary album and "Dad Don't Read This" round out our picks for the weekend of June 26.
Slotkin says Democratic Party needs 'new leadership': 'Old models are no longer working'
Sen Elissa Slotkin calls for new Democratic Party leadership, saying old models no longer work and the party must simplify its message to win back voters.
Proposed Changes to Grant Rules Threaten the Future of Research: Scientists Must Act Now!
The Trump administration is seeking to politicize US federal science funding, but collective action can stop this grantpocalypse from happening.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Why cannabis businesses need to apply for DEA registration now – and why states must help
Cannabis businesses should apply for DEA registration by a Friday, June 26 deadline. And states should be helping them.
Gov. Shapiro on Mamdani-backed wins in NYC: Candidates doing ‘performative politics’ must learn ‘how to deliver results’
Health systems must shift AI use from automation to transformation
While healthcare investments in AI are two to three times that of other industries, most providers focus AI's power on tackling administrative tasks. But AI's true value is in transforming care, explain experts at the HIMSS AI in Healthcare Forum.
Axios House: Sports must prove it can scale as live events surge
Sports is now the single biggest driver of live viewing, and everyone is scrambling to own a piece of it
NBA Draft Round 2 winners and losers: LaMelo Ball on the move? Must the Celtics trade Jaylen Brown? And players were drafted as well?
EPA Tells Staff Not to Smuggle Politics Into Official Opinions
The EPA’s comment letters to other agencies seeking input on environmental reviews must stick to the topic—clean air, water, and land—according to a Wednesday memo from David Fotouhi, the agency’s deputy administrator.
Why healthcare CIOs must fix their foundations before scaling AI
Healthcare leaders are focused on generative AI innovation, but the organizations most likely to succeed may be those investing first in architecture, governance and interoperability.
Pope: Healthcare must reveal God’s compassion to those who suffer
Pope Leo XIV sends his greetings to participants in a conference on health organized by Caritas Internationalis, and calls for cooperation in ...
Astros Must Have Hard Conversations on Javier, McCullers
We need to have a difficult conversation about two Astros returning from injury
A preventable tragedy: What my sister’s death taught me about public health
Rabies is 100% preventable when institutions work together. We must engage trusted community leaders and break down siloes between animal and human health.
The health and safety of NJ’s transgender community cannot wait
New Jersey must protect reproductive and transgender healthcare providers so that they can protect their patients.
Photos show Kennedy Center's facade without Trump's name
The Justice Department is appealing a judge's order that Trump’s name to be scrubbed from the building as well as the center’s website and promotional materials
Photos show Kennedy Center's facade without Trump's name
The Justice Department is appealing a judge's order that Trump’s name to be scrubbed from the building as well as the center’s website and promotional materials
Science Will Not Save the Abortion Pill : The Hastings Center for Bioethics
The facts are not enough. In addition to using evidence, people who support the legal right to abortion must make the moral case for it.
Santa Cruz County business filings: Week of June 23
Businesses operating in Santa Cruz County must register with the county clerk. Lookout Santa Cruz reviews the public filings from local businesses to report on new businesses starting in the area.
Delta CEO Ed Bastian reveals what he says must happen for airline ticket prices to fall
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian says ticket prices will drop when more supply enters the market, citing air traffic control congestion as a bottleneck.
Roku May Help Fox Avoid Aggregeddon
(Welcome to the “Most Important Story of the Week”, my bi-weekly strategy column analyzing the most important (but often not buzziest) news story of the last two weeks. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. Please subscribe.) Scrolling through links over the last week, I stumbled across this fun headline: Wow. Formula 1 (the sport, not the docu-series) is the perfect “dog not barking”. As a reminder, each week in my Streaming Ratings Report, I call out the shows that miss every viewership chart. I dub them “dogs not barking”—like the Sherlock Holmes mystery—because without any data, we forget they even exist. This is in contrast to something like, say, a film flop—cough The Mandalorian and Grogu cough—where even underperforming at the box office is widely discussed here, there and everywhere. In the US, Formula 1 is now in “no public viewership data, so not discussed” territory. After moving to Apple TV from its former home of ESPN, basically no one talks about it. Apple did publish an initial, unsourced, unsubstantiated, (dare I say unserious) datecdote claiming more folks are watching Formula 1 on Apple than ESPN, but we haven’t gotten any updates since. This stands in contrast to when the sport streamed on ESPN, and ESPN PR provided weekly viewership figures. Formula 1 was, at best, a niche sport in America—averaging 1.3 million viewers in the Big Data Plus era—but now it’s basically anonymous. (And yeah, after moving to Apple, I very, very, very much doubt its ratings increased.) Unfortunately, that story isn’t quite big enough to warrant a section in today’s “Most Important Story of the Week” column, but I wanted to call it out, because otherwise, no one else will! Certainly, no one will write articles about the silence/ratings decline, unlike when they wrote breathless articles connecting the rise in viewership to Netflix’s Drive to Survive, including Reuters just last month. (This is a topic I’ve tried to provide a moderate/nuanced/non-hyped take since 2022.) Anyway, on to this week’s issue. I was a bit worried I didn’t have a juicy topic, then the Murdochs went out and did their Murdoch thing: buying Roku. So that’s the story of the week, and it happens to touch on quite a few themes of the streaming wars and the disruption therein. I’ll cover that, plus why more consolidation in Hollywood media looks likely, more good news on the Hollywood labor front, whether we’ll see an uptick in production in Los Angeles, some Broadway and theme park news, cellphone prices going up in the third world (and possibly everywhere), and more. Subscribe Most Important Story of the Week - Another Big Media & Entertainment Merger The story of the week is clearly Fox is buying Roku for $22 billion. I read a lot of good strategy takes on why Fox bought this streaming TV device maker—and I’ll have mine below—but what fascinates me more is how this deal connects to quite a few themes of the streaming wars, linking to everything from the pace of M&A to “aggregeddon” to Netflix’s recent M&A actions/inactions to the shift to advertising from pure play streaming and more. The only topic I can’t really connect it to is my old theory, “never bet against Rupert Murdoch” because he isn’t the one who did this deal; his son Lachlan inked it. (Do I think he provided advice, even at his 95 years of age? Sure.) That plus I have one additional piece of strategy for all entertainment players, inspired by this deal. So let’s dive into all those topics, starting with why I like this deal. Roku is a Great M&A Buy
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Rising costs for insurance, utilities, rent, wages, and supplies are squeezing already-thin margins.
One transfer portal addition who could swing College Football Playoff hopes for every post-spring top 25 team
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Hahn can lead Boise State University, Idaho business into the future
To ensure continued success, we must have effective education institutions with strong leadership at the helm. | Opinion
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David Jolly must persuade voters who have been increasingly hostile to Democrats that he’s a different kind of Democrat.
Business Must Prepare Now for Mandatory E-Invoicing Challenges
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Hospital must pay $23M jury verdict after radiologist misses spinal cord injury on CT
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Dodgers 2, Twins 1: Forgot to pack the runs
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Data Is the New Blood Test: Who Owns It, Who Profits, Who Protects It?
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We must support 'strange' science, RNA biologist Jeff Coller writes in The New York Times
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Ken Griffin fires back at Mamdani, says business leaders must 'fight for their city'
Citadel founder Ken Griffin urges New York business leaders to speak up against Mayor Zohran Mamdani's tax proposals, warning the city risks losing talent.
Billionaire fires back at Mamdani, says business leaders must 'fight for their city'
Citadel founder Ken Griffin urges New York business leaders to speak up against Mayor Zohran Mamdani's tax proposals, warning the city risks losing talent.
Billionaire fires back at Mamdani, says business leaders must 'fight for their city'
Citadel founder Ken Griffin urges New York business leaders to speak up against Mayor Zohran Mamdani's tax proposals, warning the city risks losing talent.
Three Centers Lakers Must Target to Pair With Luka Dončić
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📝 World Cup 2026: overnight round-up
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Scientists discover neurons must break their DNA to build the brain
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Analyst Says Jaguars Should Extend Washington Before Season Starts
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'Overcommunicating': Byron Donalds talks media decentralization and advocates for 'long-form' videos from politicians
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📝 2026 World Cup: overnight round-up
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Scott Lowe, researcher: ‘Governments must fund science. Pharmaceutical companies want to help, but they also want to make money’
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Popular Kapahulu running shop to close after 50 years in business
Running Room has been a must-stop shop for runners for five decades.
This Week in Jacksonville: Business Edition - Jax Chamber outlines a playbook for business adoption
Kent Justice talks with Dr. Carlton Robinson, Chief Innovation Officer at the Jax Chamber, about how Jacksonville can stay competitive as AI shifts from buzzword to workplace reality. Robinson explains why the Chamber launched its new Center for Applied Infrastructure—framing “human-centered AI” as the next kind of public infrastructure—and why the goal is augmentation, not replacement: identifying what must remain human-led and using AI to remove friction in everyday work.
“Toy Story 5”, “House of the Dragon”, and “Widow's Bay ”top this week's Must List
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Coffee shop confession: California must regulate paid political influencers
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Opinion: Why employers want business education back in high school
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How Arkansas schools can create strong systems to support students’ mental health
Mental health issues in schools are no longer kept under wraps. But that focus must be expanded into more comprehensive solutions.
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Letter to the editor: Allegheny County must stop chasing businesses away
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Keeping Rhode Islanders covered requires a smart investment in our health and economy
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Opinion: Being Alaska Native is not a political label
Voters must look beyond identity and question those who exploit it.
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Congress must reauthorize the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act
America’s next health emergency won’t wait for Washington, write W. Craig Vanderwagen and Jennifer B. Alton.
Can Bankova Muster Political Will to Make Institutional Reforms During War?
Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum only for War on the Rocks members.