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Could Santos help solve Man Utd's midfield malaise?
Chelsea's Andrey Santos is the latest player Manchester United have taken an interest in as they look to address their problem midfield position. With Casemiro leaving after his contract expired on 30 June and Manuel Ugarte expected to be sold, United went into the summer with England's Kobbie Mainoo as their only recognised central midfielder and with the stated aim of addressing the situation as a matter of priority. In the transfer market, United have encountered more issues.
Maui County’s fringe mayoral candidates add unique ideas, opinions, entertainment to race
"It's one of my favorite aspects of politics is the fact that all of these folks get to run no matter how realistic their candidacies are. And sometimes they bring up really important issues, and sometimes they help shift the nature of what the mainstream candidates are talking about," political scientist Colin Moore said. "And sometimes it's just really entertaining."
Calmatters: Top Science Research Jobs Lack Diversity. A California College Program Aims To Curb That
CalMatters
Community-first tourism, country before politics, pursuit of happiness undermined
As Charleston rewrites its tourism management plan for the first time in years, city leaders have emphasized a commitment to residents and local businesses. That's encouraging, but the details matter.
Gamers push back: 71% say they’re not ready to let physical games die as PlayStation and Xbox move toward a digital-only future”
Our community has spoken, and 71% say physical games still matter. Here's why ownership and consumer choice remain major concerns.
How Flutter’s Removal from Key Russell Growth Indices Will Impact Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Investors
In late June 2026, Flutter Entertainment plc (NYSE: FLUT) was removed from multiple Russell growth benchmarks, including the Russell 1000 Growth, Russell 3000 Growth, Russell Midcap Growth, Russell 3000E Growth, and Russell Small Cap Comp Growth indices. This broad index exclusion matters because it can prompt passive and index-tracking investors to sell shares, potentially amplifying trading volumes and sentiment shifts around Flutter’s stock. Next, we’ll examine how Flutter’s removal from...
Long Reads for the Long Weekend
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) Happy Fourth of July weekend! As has been a tradition of mine going back to the beginning of the EntStrategyGuy website, I’m sharing my favorite long reads of the last year, like I did in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024, and 2025. Let’s dive right in! Subscribe “Different Prices for the Same Ride: How Uber and Lyft Use AI to Get More Money Out of You“ by Derek Kravitz in Consumer Reports I don’t think surveillance pricing, like the kind described in this brilliant Consumer Reports article, is long for the world—it’s toxically unpopular—but we’ll see if either party takes on this issue. If I ran a political party focused on affordability, I would focus on a few pro-consumer and pro-market policies: Banning non-compete agreements. Ending surveillance pricing Eliminating junk fees (read more here...) Ensuring “right to repair” for consumer (and military!) products Capping excessive app store fees Stopping digital/algorithmic price-fixing tools. Preventing automatic subscription price increases. And more. If you want to fight inflation, there are a lot of great ways to do it quickly. Speaking of higher prices... “Secret Documents Show Pepsi and Walmart Colluded to Raise Food Prices Across the Economy“ by Matt Stoller in BIG Again, I think a political party should focus on lowering prices for consumers. And deals like this—Walmart making a deal/forcing Pepsi to offer the lowest prices at its stores and nowhere else—hypothetically lower prices at Walmart...but raise them everywhere else. “15 DUIs, still driving: California’s failure to take repeat drunk drivers off the road“ by Robert Lewis and Lauren Hepler in CalMatters CalMatters does terrific reporting in California, something the Golden State desperately needs more of, and this article is a great example of that. “PugLips: The next insanely popular thing you’ve never heard of…” by Simon Carless in Game Discover Co I thought that this parody article (and yes, it’s a parody, but I was definitely unsure at first) was hilarious and totally nailed how much tech/business journalism feels these days. Actually, three of my favorite articles this year were on hype in the video game industry, including Georg Zoller’s “The Video Game Industries Very Dark Night”—which I linked to recently and wrote a follow-up here—and Owen Mahoney’s “Derek Zoolander, Videogame Exec”. In particular, I like Mahoney’s focus on user experience as a guide to what trends will actually grab hold of customers. “The Matrix Lies“ by Evan Shapiro in Media War & Peace Evan Shapiro’s first person account of his experience with AI was hilarious. I think LLMs capabilities have significantly grown from last summer, and yet...my editor/researcher just had an abysmal experience using an LLM to do a quite basic task (which our LLM normally does each week) and the LLM made a mistake on every single data entry...along with seven different mistakes affecting twelve of the twenty or so entries, including mistakes that are explicitly spelled out in the prompt. That’s a brutal failure rate. Again, if you use AI/LLM for data collection, you need to take a lot of extra steps to verify and check the data. “Ghosts in the Balcony: A Cross-Country Trip to 58 Theaters Fighting to Survive“ by Matthew Frank in The Ankler I thought Matthew Frank’s pitch to head across America to visit theaters sounded insane aggressive at the time—at least it felt that way to someone a decade older than him; man, to be in your twenties again, am I right?—but I knew the result would be great. And it was, a terrific feature by a great young writer. Also, I loved Matthew’s recent article on who’s getting the precious few entry level jobs in Hollywood. (Hint: nepotism.) “Disney erased FiveThirtyEight“ and “Did Las Vegas get too greedy?” by Nate Silver in Silver Bulletin I love media history and analysis, and there’s no one better to get the history of FiveThirtyEight than from Nate Silver, who wrote about his personal experience in one of my favorite pieces from this year. I also loved Nate’s breakdown of what’s causing Vegas’ woes, but I’ll offer one criticism, summarized as “Might I suggest antitrust?” Many centrists/center-right/libertarian thinkers (Nate is self-described as the latter) often don’t consider consolidation or antitrust as factors in policy issues like housing, America’s military readiness, or, in this case, Las Vegas. Even if libertarians want to debunk antitrust/consolidation concerns, I’d love to read that debunking. In this case, Vegas is incredibly consolidated (though it also has been for a long time) and I’d have loved to read Nate at least contending with this factor, since he addresses almost every other potential factor for Vegas’ decline. “Why Microsoft’s Carbon Removal Pullback Is Such a Big Deal“ by Robinson Meyer in Heatmap News I’m a big supporter of carbon removal efforts, but this nascent industry faces a lot of headwinds, including this big move most recently. I think it’s clear that solar panels and batteries should be able to get the world to its carbon footprint goals, but effective carbon renewal remains necessary to prevent the worst impacts of global warming. “AI is killing the cheap smartphone“ by David Oks LLMs and AI will impact the world in ways we’re not ready for, and already, third world countries are seeing the prices of cheap cellphones skyrocket due to the cost of chips skyrocketing. This article by David Oks is a terrific breakdown. “100 Days of Madness: Netflix, Paramount, Warner and the Future of Hollywood“ by Wade Major at Hollywood Heretic Wade Major dove deep into Hollywood/streaming’s financials in this must read piece. Not that I agree with everything in this article (read my take on Warner Bros./Paramount here) but the analysis is top notch. I think many people discount how quality thinking, regardless of the argument/conclusion, will make you a better thinker. “Erased by the UFC: Frank Shamrock, The MMA GOAT of the 20th Century“ by Nate Wilcox in The MMA Draw Newsletter Growing up playing the UFC fighting game on the Dreamcast, Frank Shamrock was my favorite MMA fighter, and this history/tribute to him was great. Other Fun Reads “The Hardest Part Of History To Tell Is How It Felt“ by Craig Fehrman at Defector “Unmasking the Sea Star Killer“ by Craig Welch at bioGraphic “What Could Save the Industry? Fin-Syn“ by Richard Rushfield in The Ankler Alex Rollins Berg in Underexposed on movie bumpers, pillow shots, Disney trash cinema, cult films, and Casablanca. David H. Montgomery in YouGov’s The Surveyor on punctuation marks, condiments, dinosaurs, and comic strips and kids media. “How Medium finally pivoted its way to profitability“ and “Why the best journalists on YouTube are all former Vox employees“ by Simon Owens in Simon Owens’s Media Newsletter “It’s Not Just You, Netflix Shows Have Gotten Slightly Shorter: Here’s What the Data Says“ by Kasey Moore at What’s on Netflix “Numlock Awards: How Diane Warren became the biggest loser in Oscar history“ by Nathaniel Rakich and “Numlock Awards: The Oscar Bait era is over. The Oscar Chum era is here.” by Walt Hickey & Michael Domanico at Numlock Awards
Karlie Kloss opens up about politics and Trump family ties
Karlie Kloss discusses politics, family and why dialogue still matters.
FBI assigns 260 staff members to Georgia 2020 election probe
The FBI has ramped up its investigation into the 2020 election in Georgia by dedicating more personnel to what an internal memo refers to as a “priority,” a person familiar with the matter told CNN.
USC Computer Science Chair Nenad Medvidović Inducted as ACM Fellow - USC Viterbi
Recognized for foundational contributions to software architecture and large-scale systems design, Medvidović reflects on research, mentorship and solving problems that matter.
4 Business Essentials You Can’t Ignore If You Want to Be a Successful Entrepreneur
Here are four critical business essentials every owner should have in place no matter the size or type of business they have.
STEM isn't always welcoming to diversity. A California college program aims to curb that
A state-funded program is trying to diversify the sciences by providing mentors, relationship-building, stipends and more.
A strange LIGO signal could reveal the missing link behind dark matter
An unusual gravitational wave signal has renewed hopes that primordial black holes, long considered purely theoretical, may finally be within reach of discovery. If confirmed, they could solve one of astronomy's greatest mysteries by explaining the nature of dark matter.
Editorial: The most important thing you can do to protect science
Your comments on a dangerous rule putting politicals in charge of science can matter.
Maryland's first 'human composting' facility is open for business
Maryland's first 'human composting' facility is turning human remains into soil, considered a greener alternative to cremation or traditional burial
Bills’ Josh Allen continues dominating “best current NFL QB” debates
In a league full of elite talent, the better question is how much being the best really matters.
The Supreme Court just made money matter even more
The Supreme Court ruled in NRSC v. FEC that political parties can spend unlimited amounts of money in direct coordination with their own candidates, further increasing the influence of money in pol…
Bates lifts what matters in healthcare leadership
East Carolina University College of Nursing student Sandra Bates is driven by a passion for improving healthcare systems.
Justices Hold Sex, Not Gender Identity, Matters in Girls’ Sports
Alliance Defending Freedom’s Kristen Waggoner says the decisions upholding Idaho’s and West Virginia’s women’s sports laws protect fair competition and the rule of law alike.
Meta to sell excess AI computing capacity via cloud business, Bloomberg News reports
Meta Platforms is building a cloud business to sell excess AI computing capacity, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday citing people familiar with the matter.
The 4 Skills That Matter Most In Global Business Today
Learn the four essential skills for cross-cultural communication, global leadership, and building trust across cultures in today's increasingly global workplace.
MD lawmaker's historic journey unfolds in book that's part autobiography, part political memoir
Maryland lawmaker, Lily Qi, writes about her journey from China to the US and into state politics in a book that's part autobiography, part political memoir
Wilmington Small Business Coalition: Building Momentum in 2026 by Heather McWhorter
This article was contributed by Lydia Thomas, UNCW CIE Program Manager. North Carolina continues to be one of the best states to start a business and in 2025, Wilmington, North Carolina earned a spot on the GoDaddy list of the top 10 most entrepreneurial cities in the U.S. While many know Wilmington as small beach town with exceptional food, lots of coffee shops, and fun, vibrant summer activities, a closer look reveals a thriving innovation economy. You’ll find startups emerging across industries including software, healthtech, bluetech, and fintech. At the core of this entrepreneurial ecosystem is the Wilmington Small Business Coalition, with small business advocates and entrepreneur support organizations (ESOs) dedicated to helping founders grow, thrive, and succeed. “No Wrong Door” Established in 2016, the Coalition was designed to make it easier for individuals and small businesses to access resources most suited to their particular needs. The Coalition is designed to have a “no wrong door” entryway into the regional startup ecosystem. Whether you are exploring a new idea sketched on the back of a napkin or leading a more established, growth-stage company, Coalition members can help connect you with the programs, funding opportunities, mentors, and resources best suited to your needs. No matter where you are in your entrepreneurial journey, any Coalition organization can help point you in the right direction. Coalition Members and Leadership Coalition members include the UNCW Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (UNCW CIE), AARP, Brunswick Community College Small Business Center, Cape Fear Community College Small Business Center, Cape Fear Region SCORE, Genesis Block Foundation, Network for Entrepreneurs in Wilmington (NEW), Small Business & Technology Development Center (SBTDC), Greater Wilmington Chamber of Commerce, YWCA Living the Dream Center for Entrepreneurship, Carolina Community Impact Fund (CCI Fund), Partner Community Capital, 717mkt Office Collaborative, NC Biotech, and Institute NC. In May 2026, the Coalition held its leadership elections, resulting in the selection of a new executive team. The following officers were elected to serve two-year terms: Chair: Lydia Thomas, UNCW CIE Vice Chair: Diane Lantz, CCI Fund Secretary: Aariene Hansley, Genesis Block Foundation Treasurer: Gloria Monroe, SBTDC Vision for the Wilmington Small Business Coalition In 2026, the Wilmington Small Business Coalition continues its work as a collaborative network of organizations. By connecting programs, expertise, and services across partner organizations, entrepreneurs can more easily find the right support at the right time. Rather than operating in silos, the Coalition aims to function as a unified, cohesive system of support for small businesses and entrepreneurs, ensuring that resources and expertise across partner organizations are visible and accessible. Through stronger collaboration and shared pathways, entrepreneurs can move more seamlessly from idea to startup to growth. Looking to dive into the Wilmington entrepreneurial ecosystem? Connect with any of the Coalition partners to get started! Connect with CIE To learn more about CIE and our services, programs, and events, join the CIE newsletter. You can also follow us on social media: Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, TikTok, or YouTube. CIE’s website is uncw.edu/cie. Heather McWhorter is the director of the UNCW Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (CIE). CIE supports innovation-forward start-ups and helps to build a vibrant innovation economy for all in southeast NC.
Microsoft to cut under 2.5% of workforce in latest layoffs, Business Insider reports
Microsoft is planning to cut under 2.5% of its workforce in the latest round of layoffs that could be announced as early as next week, Business Insider reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Specialized claims the new Tarmac SL9 is faster than the Colnago Y1Rs and Cervélo S5 when using "the only metric that matters"
Specialized says the new SL9 is faster than the Colnago Y1Rs, Cervélo S5 and Factor One when tested against the "the only metric that matters"
Recently acquired radiology group reports data breach
The Women’s Center for Radiology, which was acquired by Solis Mammography in January, hired a cybersecurity firm to help investigate the scope of the matter.
Gavin Newsom signs law limiting mental health diversion for people accused of crimes
A new California law gives just more flexibility to keep defendants in jail rather than releasing them to community-based mental health treatment programs.
NBCUniversal may enter video game business after Comcast split, sources say
NBCUniversal is eyeing opportunities in digital gaming and new entertainment franchises as the company weighs options for future growth after its planned spinoff from Comcast , according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter.
Exclusive-NBCUniversal May Enter Video Game Business After Comcast Split, Sources Say
By Echo Wang, Dawn Chmielewski and Milana Vinn June 29 - NBCUniversal is eyeing opportunities in digital gaming and new entertainment franchises as the company weighs options for future growth after its planned spinoff from Comcast, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter.
How 'masculinism' is reshaping American politics
Can the new faultline in American political tribalism be broken down along the masculine question? Republican attacks against Texas Democratic Candidate for Senate James Talarcio falsely claim he's vegan as a challenge to his masculinity. While others in the GOP say they want to repeal the Woman's right to vote. What is he overarching strategy here. Why testosterone matters in today's politics.
Communication key to supporting older adults' mental health
No matter your age, mental health is important to talk about as part of a healthy lifestyle.
Experts convene to make the 'early connections' that matter for children's health, learning
A June event in Chapel Hill assembled the state's agencies and sectors that shape early childhood development, health, and learning.
Verizon, BT Are Said to Near JV Deal for International Business
Verizon Communications Inc. is in advanced talks to combine some of its international business with that of the UK’s BT Group Plc, according to people familiar with the matter.
Opinion: Bring back respect in politics
No matter your party or political persuasion, it is undeniable that American politics has taken on a tenor of anger and pessimism. This national mood has made American politics atoxic stew of rage, discontentment and despair. Many Americans don’t feel that the reforms they would like to see in their government are possible. These...
Meaningful Outcomes Determine the Winners of the Health AI Race
Global investment in healthcare AI exceeded $18 billion in 2025, yet health systems still lack a shared understanding of the outcomes that investment should deliver. This paper argues that success in the health AI race will be determined not by technological sophistication but by which systems first identify and pursue the outcomes that matter most to patients, professionals and health systems. Without a shared language for defining and measuring what healthcare AI should deliver, systems risk optimizing for what is easiest to count rather than what matters most. This paper provides a framework for ensuring AI investment translates into real value for healthcare systems and the populations they serve.
Why Rock Ya-Sin Is Poised to Replace Terrion Arnold
No matter what happens in court, the Lions have a major problem to solve—and Rock Ya-Sin may be the biggest beneficiary.
Assessing the claim that the U.S. government is abandoning science
The people who do not trust science today would probably like to be able to. And the people who do trust it may simply be unaware of the problems.
Jodi's Journal: The purple city prevails
No matter who emerges in this election, the purple city has prevailed. And I think that's a win.
This Week’s Small Business Tech News: Apple Significantly Raises Their Prices
AI is reshaping small business IT, customer service and marketing. Learn why Microsoft agents, Apple price hikes and AI influencers matter to your business.
Venezuela's quakes proved Android's earthquake alerts matter. What about iPhone?
The alert leans on a sensor you already carry, but Apple takes a different path.
Inside the room where the smart home industry is still betting on Matter
It still Matters.
California health insurance tax hike: Will your premiums increase?
A balance act: To help fund the safety net, lawmakers have voted through a health tax extension that could increase premium costs for Californians with private insurance.
Caitlin Clark Fans Staging Boycott For Saturday's Fever Game
This Saturday's showdown between the Indiana Fever and Los Angeles Sparks has unfortunately lost some of its appeal due to Caitlin Clark's latest injury. Clark suffered a back injury during Wednesday's loss to the Phoenix Mercury. To make matters worse, she was on the receiving end of a cheap shot ...
Maryland health insurers want to raise premiums an average 13.7% for individual plans in 2027
Maryland health insurers want to raise premiums an average 13.7% for individual ACA plans in 2027
Business Matters - Sit Down with David Jaindl and Rich Lerner
Join host Tony Iannelli for a compelling conversation with David Jaindl, one of the Lehigh Valley’s leading land development professionals, and Rich Lerner of GOLF Channel. Together, they discuss the
Science Can Fully Explain Consciousness? By 326 Theories…
It’s supposed to be a given that machines or brain organoids might be conscious despite not knowing what that is or how it works — but preborn children can’t be…
We cut MBA prices because America needs more professionals, not fewer
America is running short on educated workers at the exact moment when they matter the most.
Small Business Central to American Prosperity Celebration
House Small Business Committee celebrates small businesses as key to American prosperity ahead of nation's 250th anniversary. Learn why Main Street matters.
Why where you live matters for heart health — even in childhood - Baylor College of Medicine Blog Network
Evidence links environmental exposures to early cardiovascular risk, disproportionately impacting marginalized communities like AI/AN youth.
Why Pollinators Matter for Human Health | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
New research shows that wild insect pollinators play a critical role in nutrition and livelihoods.
Healthy Employees Are Good. Healthy Leaders Matter More
Healthy, sharp employees are essential to a strong organization. But sequencing matters. High-performing organizations start with leaders.
California unions, hospitals strike deal — but billionaire tax heads to ballot
Two healthcare ballot measures are gone. One very contentious wealth tax isn't.
Billionaire tax, affordable housing: See the measures on California's November ballot
California voters will decide on 14 statewide policy proposals come November, from the controversial billionaire tax to an $11 billion affordable housing bond.
Larry David and Barack Obama's American history show is deeply cringe
For Larry David and Barack Obama, history is a laughing matter. And they've got the sketch comedy show to prove it.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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WHO Step-by-Step programme recognized as a promising innovation for mental health in humanitarian settings
WHO, in collaboration with the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and Lebanon’s National Mental Health Programme, showcased Step-by-Step at the World Bank Group’s biennial Fragility Forum in Washington, DC. The forum convened more than 1500 representatives from governments, international organizations and civil society to advance the development agenda in the world’s most fragile and crisis-affected communities. WHO was invited to demonstrate Step-by-Step – a digital self-help intervention for depression, alongside innovations presented by Stanford University and Google. The World Bank Group selected Step-by-Step from among more than 50 innovations that they reviewed in the lead up to the Forum.About Step-by-StepStep-by-Step is a free digital tool developed by WHO in collaboration with Lebanon’s National Mental Health Programme and other partners, that helps people manage depression and anxiety on their own, with light guidance from a trained supporter. It uses a picture-based story to walk users through evidence-based techniques for managing common mental health conditions. Users complete five modules, with weekly contacts – of around 15 minutes each – from a trained non-specialist helper, such as a community health worker.Evidence-basedClinical trials in Lebanon involving nearly 1250 participants – including 680 Lebanese participants and 569 Syrian participants – showed that Step-by-Step significantly reduced depression, anxiety and stress, and improved daily functioning. By the end of the programme, a reduction in depressive symptoms of more than 50% was reported by almost half (46%) of Lebanese participants and more than one third (37%) of Syrian participants compared to approximately 14% of those who did not use the programme. Cost-effectiveness analyses further suggest that Step-by-Step may offer a cost-saving response to depression in humanitarian emergencies in low- and middle-income countries.Used globallyStep-by-Step is already in use nationwide in Lebanon and Thailand, as part of each country’s mental health system. In India, the NGO – Kaya Guides – has adapted Step-by-Step for delivery through a widely used messaging app. Together, these programmes have provided thousands of people with evidence-based support for depression. The content is freely available from the WHO website for any organization or country to adapt for their own context.A new implementation guideThe Fragility Forum coincided with the recent launch of WHO’s new practical guide: Psychological self-help interventions: delivering self-help for individuals, featuring Step-by-Step and Doing What Matters in Times of Stress (WHO, 2026). The guide is designed to help governments, health workers, organizations and planners bring evidence-based mental health support to more people, particularly in low-resource and crisis-affected settings.
Latvia pilots citizen engagement in research grant evaluations
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Evaluators of grant applications submitted to Latvia’s Fundamental and Applied Research Programme (FLPP), the country’s main research funder, will this year have the option of consulting citizen feedback on challenges the public thinks science should focus on to inform their decisions. “In recent years, both public discussions and policy-level debates in Latvia have highlighted the importance of demonstrating how publicly funded research contributes to society, the economy and the resolution of real-world challenges,” said a source at the Latvian Council of Science (LCS), which manages the FLPP. “At the same time, research institutions themselves expressed interest in improving the project evaluation framework while continuing to ensure that funding is awarded to the highest-quality projects,” the source added. The citizen input comes from a survey that was conducted between 25 February and 16 March 2025, to which 1,737 people responded. It gathered information on what the public views as problem areas for Latvia, and the role of science and technology in providing solutions to these problems. A summary of these responses has been included as an annex to the FLPP 2026 call for proposals that evaluators can refer to, purely in an advisory manner, when judging proposals. Results from the survey show that the main problem areas identified by the public were in healthcare and public health, followed by the development of new treatment methods and medicines, and then digital technology, data security and cyber security. At the bottom of the list was research aimed at acquiring new knowledge about the universe, matter and the laws of nature. Further analysis looked at the public view of the possible role of science in solving these problems. The survey charted 4,167 individual responses based on open-ended questions that were derived from the participants’ answers. The analysis again found that medical and health sciences topped the scoring, with 788 responses referring to the field. Humanities and the arts were bottom of the list, with 625. Digging further into the details, the survey suggests citizens are aware of and concerned about a number of research areas. This includes technologies and innovation to improve the environment or reduce pollution, the development of modern military technologies and cybersecurity tools, and the development and application of artificial intelligence, among others. “We hope this initiative will help strengthen public trust in science and create a more meaningful dialogue between researchers and society,” the LCS source said, adding that it offers benefits to researchers, evaluators and to the general public. More space for citizen engagement in evaluationsThere is a gradual but increasing use of citizen engagement in research evaluation processes around Europe, especially in healthcare, but it remains relatively rare, said Henry Sauermann, a professor at the European School of Management and Technology in Berlin and an expert in citizen science.“Given that we are at a point where citizen involvement is extremely limited, there is presumably space for more, but it's not that we should do it just because we want to do it,” he told Science|Business. He said some research lends itself better to having citizen input, and this usually tends to be on the applied end of the science spectrum where the public can offer useful feedback based on their experiences. He added that advising scientists on certain topics to study is also a useful approach, in the way that Latvia is doing. “The public does fund a lot of science, there's a lot of tax money going into this. We of course do want to preserve academic freedom, but it's also not unreasonable to incorporate more feedback or input from citizens where possible,” he said. Related articlesCitizen science: where, when, and how to let the public contribute to researchHow can Europe cope with a flood of AI-assisted research grant proposals?Data Corner: Horizon Europe’s AI, digital and data call success rate is 5.2%There are several ways of involving citizens in science funding. The most minimal way is having a few representatives on a panel, such as members of a patient group or union. The most direct way is crowdsourcing funding for specific projects. There is an increasing number of online platforms that allow the public to chip in to support scientific proposals.Sauermann studied this in a recent paper and found that it can have its uses, but it still is not clear if there are benefits to it. There are various assumptions linked to citizen engagement, for example that it increases public trust in science, or that it provides a representative view of what the public thinks about science. These are not necessarily true, Sauermann found. People who participate in engagement activities tend to already be very trusting of science, and, on the whole, it is generally the well-off and well educated who contribute, giving a narrow view of public opinion. On whether citizen input can help manage the increasing number of proposals that are being submitted due to assistance from AI, Sauermann is more sceptical. “The obvious answer to the flood of AI-written proposals is AI-driven evaluation,” he said, adding that it doesn’t mean citizen engagement shouldn’t be a part of evaluations in a well thought-out manner. Southern Denmark’s successful approachOne successful example of citizen engagement in science evaluations was implemented in southern Denmark. Between 2019 and 2025, citizens in the region were invited to vote to fund one of five pre-selected projects in the field of healthcare. The project, called A Healthier Southern Denmark, was a collaboration between regional authorities, the University of Southern Denmark, and two media partners. Over the seven years, there were 75,000 votes and significant public engagement online and on social media. “It was a bit of a wild project, we’d never done something like that before and we were a bit nervous about what would be said in the media about it. But actually, people were very positive,” said Anne Kathrine Overgaard, one of the main organisers of the project from the University of Southern Denmark. The university and its researchers have learned a lot from the experience, particularly about engaging with society and shaping their research to match real-world needs. This is important with Europe’s increasing focus on competitiveness and bringing innovations to market faster, Overgaard said. She hopes to see more citizen engagement in evaluation processes and in science more broadly. “For many years, citizen engagement has been a bit of an add-on to proposals, just to check a box. But I think things are changing,” she said. It’s less about citizens just gathering data and more “about the dialogue between the public and the scientists,” she said. The initiative ended last year as the team wanted to regroup to find fresh momentum. The development of AI and AI-written proposals has made Overgaard reflect on how the project could be reworked to help evaluators. She hopes to bring it back in the future. “It could be a good idea to try this initiative again in a slightly re-worked format,” she said.
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