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Supreme Court limits key provision of the landmark Voting Rights Act
The decision could touch off a scramble by Republicans to redraw minority-majority congressional districts, especially in the South, that could cost many Black Democrats their seats.
One of America’s oldest weather observatories shows people the science behind our climate
At Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, a weather station 15 miles south of Boston, staff and volunteers have been using many of the same tools to monitor the weather since it opened in 1885
Prosecutions of Trump’s foes add to GOP’s headaches in midterms
Charges against former FBI director James B. Comey and others take focus away from the economy and other issues voters care about, many Republicans say.
Analysis | Trump is a target of political violence, but he’s hardly its only cause
Social upheaval, deep polarization and social media are primary drivers of the phenomenon, which has touched Republicans and Democrats alike.
Australia becomes the 30th country to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem
The World Health Organization (WHO) has validated Australia for eliminating trachoma as a public health problem, marking a significant milestone in the health of indigenous peoples and in global efforts to combat neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Trachoma, the world’s leading infectious cause of blindness, no longer represents a public health problem in the country.Australia is among a growing number of countries that have successfully eliminated trachoma, contributing to global progress towards the targets set out in the WHO road map for NTDs 2021–2030.Trachoma is caused by the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis and spreads through close contact with infected individuals, contaminated surfaces, and flies that carry eye and nose discharge. Repeated infections can lead to scarring of the eyelids, turning eyelashes inward, and ultimately causing blindness if untreated.“WHO congratulates Australia on this important achievement,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. “This success reflects sustained commitment, strong partnerships, and a focus on reaching populations most affected by health inequities. It brings us closer to a world free from the suffering caused by trachoma.”Australia’s journey to eliminationAustralia’s achievement reflects decades of targeted public health action, particularly in remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, where trachoma persisted despite its earlier disappearance from the rest of the country.National efforts intensified with the establishment of the National Trachoma Management Programme in 2006, which implemented the WHO-recommended SAFE strategy: surgery for trichiasis, antibiotics to treat infection, promotion of facial cleanliness, and environmental improvement. Regular screening of all communities classified as at-risk of trachoma by teams of qualified health workers formed an important part of the Programme. Interventions were delivered through coordinated partnerships between federal and state governments, Aboriginal community-controlled health services, and local communities.Over time, sustained screening, treatment, and prevention activities, including improvements in housing, water, sanitation and hygiene, led to a steady decline in trachoma prevalence. Australia’s approach included adaptations to reflect its context, such as targeted treatment based on community-level data rather than mass drug administration, and strong integration with environmental health programmes.“Elimination of trachoma is a win for the eye health of communities across Australia, particularly those whose lives have been impacted by a disease that is entirely preventable,” said Mark Butler, Minister for Health and Ageing, Australia. “This major milestone is thanks to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leadership, community commitment and sustained investment over many decades.“The lessons from this work will inform how we approach other preventable health conditions in remote and regional Australia. Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations and local health workers have been central to this success, delivering culturally safe care and community-led solutions.”“This recognition from the World Health Organization reflects decades of work led by Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations, alongside local health workers in remote First Nations communities,” said Malarndirri McCarthy, Minister for Indigenous Australians. “Their work has been critical to eliminating trachoma as a public health problem in Australia.”Advancing global efforts against neglected tropical diseases (NTDs)Trachoma is one of 21 diseases and disease groups that are regarded by WHO as NTDs. Together, NTDs affect more than 1 billion people worldwide, primarily in underserved populations with limited access to essential services such as clean water, sanitation, and health care.Australia’s elimination of trachoma as a public health problem highlights the importance of sustained political commitment and cross-sectoral collaboration in addressing the underlying determinants of health. It also underscores the feasibility of eliminating trachoma even in geographically challenging settings.In addition to trachoma, Australia has several endemic NTDs, including Buruli ulcer, leprosy and scabies. Validation of elimination of trachoma as a public health problem marks the first time that WHO has confirmed the elimination of an NTD in Australia, which becomes the 63rd country globally and 16th in the Western Pacific Region to have eliminated at least one NTD.“Tackling neglected tropical diseases in the Western Pacific Region has long been a challenge for countries across the socioeconomic spectrum, given the complexities in reaching the most vulnerable communities, including in remote areas,” said Dr Saia Ma’u Piukala, WHO Regional Director for the Western Pacific. “As a doctor from Tonga, I’ve experienced these challenges for myself. But I also know that with strategic commitment underpinned by optimal resources and partnerships in health, success is possible as other countries in our region have also demonstrated. I commend Australia on eliminating trachoma as a public health problem and urge all involved to remain vigilant to ensure this status is maintained.”WHO continues to support countries working to eliminate trachoma and other NTDs, ensuring that progress reaches those most in need and that gains are sustained through strong surveillance, appropriately integrated into national health systems, and mainstreamed within the wider health sector and beyond.Editor’s notesNeglected tropical diseases and trachoma elimination effortsNeglected tropical diseases are associated with devastating health, social and economic consequences. Their burden is mainly felt among impoverished communities in tropical areas.Public health targets for the control, elimination and eradication of these conditions were set in the road map for neglected tropical diseases 2021–2030 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240010352).In 1996, WHO launched the WHO Alliance for the Global Elimination of Trachoma by 2020 (GET2020), creating a network of governments, non-governmental organizations and academic institutions dedicated to the fight against trachoma. WHO continues to support endemic countries to accelerate progress towards the global target of eliminating trachoma as a public health problem worldwide; 2030 is the new target date.Elimination of trachoma as a public health problem is defined as: (i) a prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) “unknown to the health system” of < 0.2% in ≥15-year-olds; and (ii) a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) in children aged 1–9 years of < 5%, in each formerly endemic district, plus (iii) the existence of a system to identify and manage incident cases of TT.Other countries validated by WHO as having eliminated trachoma as a public health problem are: Algeria, Benin, Burundi, Cambodia, China, Egypt, Fiji, Gambia, Ghana, India, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Libya, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar, Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Togo, Vanuatu and Viet Nam.
FBI raids Somali business in fraud investigation | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
The FBI is conducting raids at Somali-owned businesses across the Twin Cities metro on Tuesday.
How science can create a more consistent cup of coffee
Scientists borrowed technology used in battery research to show that measuring the current that runs through coffee can quantify a cup’s strength and flavor.
EXCLUSIVE: New Kids Mental Health Foundation PSA Stars Malin Akerman, Lance Bass and More
The documentary short and PSA were made in honor of National Mental Health Awareness month in May.
Iraq Politicians Chose New Candidate for PM After Trump Pressure
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki ended his bid to reclaim the role after pressure from the US, which was concerned by his close links to Iran.
Opinion: Amid normalization of dark humor, Bruins must choose empathy over entertainment
Countless internet creators have employed dark humor as a means to go viral. Some have made posts joking about people being sent to war amid the United States’ military action in Iran.
A woman’s bug bite led to hives and a $6,700 ER bill
A bug bite and an allergic reaction ultimately sent a woman to the emergency room, where she had a couple of brief chats with a doctor and a dose of medicine.
Supreme Court formally reinstates pro-Republican Texas voting map
The move by the court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, formalizes an interim decision it made in December to revive the map of U.S. House districts in Texas.
Much-maligned small-business data rule close to finish line
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is poised to finalize a contentious rule mandating the collection of demographic data on small-business borrowers, with the aim of ensuring equal access to credit for women and minority owners.
Zombie politics is the new norm and Starmer’s dying premiership is the latest instalment
Distracted, listless and unambitious – the PM’s true form has finally emerged. But whatever comes next must end this ruinous cycle, says Guardian columnist Nesrine Malik
Nessus Agent Vulnerability on Windows Enables Arbitrary Code Execution with SYSTEM Privileges
A newly disclosed security vulnerability in Tenable's Nessus Agent for Windows could allow attackers to execute malicious code with the highest level of system privileges, raising serious concerns for enterprise security teams relying on the widely-deployed vulnerability assessment platform.
Mali rattled by ongoing armed attacks: What to know
Mali's security situation has deteriorated in recent years, as armed groups have carried out coordinated attacks.
Mali’s Defence Minister Sadio Camara killed amid coordinated attacks
Camara's house in the garrison town of Kati came under attack amid simultaneous attacks across the West African country.
Should Flutter’s Shift to U.S.-Style Governance and Blank-Check Preferred Shares Require Action From Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Investors?
At its 2026 Annual General Meeting on May 29, held in the past relative to today, Flutter Entertainment plc approved amendments to its Memorandum and Articles of Association to align governance with common U.S. public company practices, including plurality voting in contested director elections, flexible board size, and the ability to issue blank-check preferred shares. An important implication is Flutter’s move to formalize its status as a U.S. domestic issuer under the Securities Exchange...
Trump ousts National Science Board members
The independent board guides the National Science Foundation, the $9 billion basic science agency.
Trump’s political headwinds pile up after gerrymandering, Iran setbacks
New polls showed voters prefer Democrats on the economy for the first time since 2010 and Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation.
Camp Mystic license imperiled, but troubled camp could still reopen
Texas health officials notified the owners of Camp Mystic that it had not met health and safety requirement necessary to reopen.
Scientists just discovered a 60-foot long, kraken-like octopus
The discovery, using novel techniques to analyze fossilized jaws, details how colossal octopuses hunted the Late Cretaceous depths, competing with apex predators.
‘FBoy Island’ star’s bet on his own Senate bid exposes perils of Kalshi
A former reality TV contestant turned candidate in Virginia and two U.S. House hopefuls in Texas and Minnesota have been banned from the prediction market for five years.
A flawed diagnosis of Cuban health care
Progressives who praise communist systems just prove how gullible they are.
Malicious KICS Docker Images and VS Code Extensions Hit Checkmarx Supply Chain
Malicious KICS Docker tags and VS Code versions 1.17.0, 1.19.0 enabled data exfiltration, risking exposed infrastructure secrets.
CDC won’t publish report showing covid shots cut likelihood of hospital visits
The report, which had cleared the agency’s scientific-review process, had been delayed. It now won’t be published at all, people familiar with the decision told The Post.
Health care is expensive. This could help.
Health care, drug pricing and Medicare-for-all, in readers' eyes.
Kash Patel files $250M suit against The Atlantic
Patel accused the magazine of publishing a “sweeping, malicious, and defamatory hit piece”
Iran’s World Cup participation depends on team’s safety in the US: Minister
Iran's team is preparing for the FIFA World Cup but may not travel to the tournament, Sport Minister Donyamali says.
Ex-staffers defend California governor hopeful after viral clips raise conduct questions
After Eric Swalwell’s exit, a letter from 30 ex-staffers of former representative Katie Porter seeks to blunt attacks as Democrats fear getting locked out of the race.
Technologist And Media Vet David Dibble Named Vice Chairman Of Sphere
David Dibble, a technologist and former senior executive at Cablevision and Yahoo, has been named vice chairman of Sphere. The appointment by Sphere Entertainment will formalize Dibble’s work helping ...
KitKat, Gatorade or granola bars? What’s banned under new SNAP rules are mixed.
Many GOP states are enacting soda and candy bans for food stamp purchases amid MAHA’s healthy food efforts. Some retailers and SNAP users find the new rules complicated.
Cannabis is neither harmless nor a cure-all
Cannabis, rural flight access, Catholicism and more, in readers' eyes.
DOJ demands Detroit-area 2024 ballots, escalating election scrutiny
DOJ official Harmeet K. Dhillon wrote that she is seeking ballots to investigate election law compliance. Democratic state officials call the request baseless.
For U.S. medical researchers, shrinking labs and bare budgets are the new reality
The Trump administration has slashed the number of grants from the National Institutes of Health, with far fewer focused on women, cancer and mental health.
For U.S. medical researchers, shrinking labs and bare budgets are the new reality
The Trump administration has slashed the number of grants from the National Institutes of Health, with far fewer focused on women, cancer and mental health.
Somali-owned Minnesota transportation company calls contract cancellation ‘blatant discrimination’
Medical Transportation Management’s decision to end its contract with Southdale Transportation Services could result in 95 workers losing their jobs.
Transfer center, Malick Kordel is coming to Minnesota
Minnesota gets another Michigan transfer
How corporate welfare for hospitals is raising health care costs
A drug discount program has fueled consolidation and incentivized prescribing more expensive medications.
Gavin Newsom chooses the wrong side of gender politics again
Sex changes for illegal immigrants might sound like a Republican ad, but it’s California policy.
Federal judge sets new limits on Trump ballroom construction
U.S. District Judge Richard Leon clarified that some national security work can continue while the overall project is halted.
Travelers posts sharp earnings rebound as catastrophe losses normalize
Insurer reports $1.7 billion in quarterly profit, boosts dividend after strong underwriting and investment performance
Developers plan construction phasing for Norman's Rock Creek Entertainment District
Rainier Development Company and the University of Oklahoma Foundation formalize construction phasing for Norman's billion-dollar arena district amid legal challenges.
These 108 Malicious Chrome Extensions Are Stealing Google and Telegram Data
Researches have identified 108 Chrome extensions that stole Telegram messages and exposed Google account information.
White House favors Erica Schwartz, former deputy surgeon general, to lead CDC
Schwartz would be Trump’s third nominee to lead the CDC. She left government in 2021, after the Biden administration passed her over for acting U.S. surgeon general.
108 malicious Chrome extensions found stealing data and injecting ads into every page you visit — delete them right now
The extensions have different publishers but send all the data they steal to the same place
Microsoft adds Windows protections for malicious Remote Desktop files
Microsoft has introduced new Windows protections to defend against phishing attacks that abuse Remote Desktop connection (.rdp) files, adding warnings and disabling risky shared resources by default.
Woman accuses Eric Swalwell of rape in 2018, says she will report it to authorities
Her attorney said at a news conference that she will not present evidence to the media.
How Trump’s ultimatum on DEI divided a Texas city
The debate in Fort Worth echoes a dilemma that local leaders are grappling with around the country: End diversity programs or risk losing all federal funding.
House eyes possible expulsion of multiple members as it returns to Washington
Both parties appear to be factoring in the razor-thin majority that Republicans hold in the chamber as they weigh whether to oust members.
Three Exit Black River Entertainment
SVP Promotion Bill Macky, Midwest regional Joe Carroll and West Coast rep Jim Malito have [...]
White House says it’s boosting affordability through physician reforms
A new report distills the Trump administration’s strategy as officials jockey to shape health care messages ahead of this year’s midterm elections.
Column | Where have all the computer science majors gone?
Computer science has been one of the hottest college majors for 15 years. Enrollment data suddenly shows a big drop.
Election loss for Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has ripple effects for Trump, US conservatives
The big election over the weekend was in a small European country nearly half a world away from Washington, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has significant reverberations in the United States
Trump lambasts Pope Leo XIV, extending feud over Iran war with first American pontiff
President Donald Trump is sharply criticizing Pope Leo XIV, saying the U_S_-born pope is “not doing a very good job” and is “a very liberal person.”
Calls grow for Rep. Swalwell to resign or be expelled over misconduct claims
Several Democratic and Republican lawmakers said they would be in favor of voting to expel Swalwell, as well as Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who both face misconduct allegations.
The Screen Time Maximalists Who Spend an Ungodly Amount of Time on Their Phones
As debates over social media addiction rage, people with extreme screen times tell WIRED they have no plans to cut back.
Democrats see gas prices as a potent political tool. Here’s the catch.
President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran sent gas prices surging, giving Democrats’ focus on affordability more traction if they can get voters to trust them.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Trump officials unveil designs for president’s controversial 250-foot arch
Military veterans have sued to halt the project, saying it would alter key views of Arlington National Cemetery.
Vatican meeting at Pentagon was ‘unusual,’ a church official says
U.S. and Vatican officials have sought to downplay accounts of a strained relationship, but there have been tensions between the Trump administration and the Catholic Church.
Michigan Health & Hospital Association Establishes MHA Center of Rural Excellence
The MHA Center of Rural Excellence formalizes and strengthens the collective voice of rural hospitals.
Democrats worry Schumer’s pick in Maine could imperil hopes of Senate control
Maine’s Democratic governor, Janet Mills, has gone negative against Graham Platner. The attacks have not worked, and Minority Leader Charles Schumer so far has declined to bail her out.
Trump started the Iran war with 5 goals. How far has he really gotten?
The president claimed he achieved them all. The reality is more complicated.
Countries are turning against U.S. fossil fuels after Iran war
As economies in Asia and Europe reel from the energy disruption, leaders make plans to permanently replace imported oil and gas with homegrown energy.
France Launches Government Linux Desktop Plan as Windows Exit Begins
France is transitioning government desktops to Linux, with each ministry required to formalize its implementation plan by autumn 2026.
The normalisation of political profanity
Donald Trump isn’t the first politician to sully their office with foul-mouthed rhetoric and it’s catching on with rivals too
What one campaign rally in Michigan reveals about young voters ahead of the midterm elections
Many young voters say politics isn’t delivering and they want candidates who offer something new, not just opposition
This detox may erase 10 years of social media brain damage, researchers say
Studies show that taking even short breaks could reverse measures of cognitive decline.
Dick Vitale, ESPN analyst, announces new health update with 'some abnormalities'
Veteran and legendary ESPN commentator Dick Vitale announced a new health update on April 8, with \
Dick Vitale's tests show 'abnormalities' as ESPN legend gives latest health update
ESPN Hall of Fame broadcaster Dick Vitale shared that "some abnormalities" were found after a series of routine scans last week.
Trump’s Iran brinkmanship reaches truce, escalates backlash at home
The president’s ultimatum drew condemnation across the political spectrum and intensified open debate about his credibility, morality and sanity.
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The Boundless Deep: Young Tennyson, Science, and the Crisis of Belief by Richard Holmes
Pantheon Review by Walter Cummins The image of Alfred Tennyson I’ve carried for decades goes back to the childhood card game of Authors that depicts him with a stately continence sharpened by a jutting black beard. He’s formidable, his aura superior. Holmes opens his biography of the youthful Tennyson by describing the similar formality of the imposing Tennyson statue at Trinty College Cambridge, sharing the honor with other Trinity greats, including Isaac Newton, Francis Bacon, and Thomas Babington Macaulay. Holmes doesn’t want to chip away at that statue but rather reveal its inner youthful core of the man—tall, handsome, and talented but unformed, emerging from a disturbed family of addicted or insane male siblings and four unusual sisters struggling under a violent alcoholic clergyman father. Alfred was certainly statuesque, but would he end up a block of unformed stone like his equally promising brothers? He was youngest of three equally regarded Tennyson brothers at Cambridge, all bright, handsome, and talented, in fact Alfred regarded by some as less promising than his elders who also wrote poetry. Yet Alfred wrote one of his major poems, “The Kraken,” at twenty, revealing both his talent, his interest in geological forces, and the haunting creature that embodied his anxieties. While Holmes focuses on Tennyson of the 1830s and 1840s, he can’t tell his story without exploring his involvement with the Victorian intellectual upheaval. Tennyson was fascinated by new scientific perspectives, following the latest findings as soon as books and articles were published. He was especially taken with Charles Lyell’s deep studies of geology and the discovery of fossils and a timeline of the planet’s development that did much to question fundamental religious assumptions. The impact of these discoveries is reflected in Tennyson’s poetry and led to the crisis in belief he shared with so many contemporaries. He was especially taken by the cycles of destruction and renewal that informed the struggles he confronted in In Memoriam, Maud, and Idylls of the King. Tennyson was only one of the eventual major figures at Cambridge at the same time, young men just beginning to realize their potential. Charles Darwin was at Christ College, although there is no evidence that he and Tennyson even met as students or later in life. Yet evolution became significant in Tennyson’s thinking and the issues of his poetry. One of Tennyson’s best and most important Cambridge friends was Edward FitzGerald, who became the translator of The Rubáiyát of Omar Khayyám and in their on and off relationship served as Tennyson’s harshest critic. FitzGerald was also a friend of the novelist William Makepeace Thackeray, the two of them partying in Paris as undergraduates. That connection led to a friendship between Thackeray and Tennyson. Others who came to play significant roles in Tennyson’s life were Thomas Carlyle, the Brownings, and the Pre-Raphaelites. Tennyson’s deepest friend at college was Arthur Hallam, who at twenty wrote a glowing review of Tennyson’s first poetry collection, travelled on European adventures with him, and fell in love with his sister Emily. Hallam was also regarded as one more very promising Cambridge student. His sudden death at twenty-two in Vienna from a stroke while travelling with his father devastated many friends, but perhaps Tennyson most of all. He did not write immediate poems of grief but took years to compile those collected in In Memoriam A.H.H., published in 1850, almost twenty years after Hallam’s death For all of Tennyson’s early poetic successes and successes, Holmes reveals him as an often troubled young man suffering periods of depression, fearing planetary upheaval, concerned about supporting himself, disappointed in romances, and worried that he would inherit the family’s mental illness tendencies. Yet despite his seeming withdrawals, he was always writing poetry that he kept private and would not let go, constantly revising. 1850 became a transformative year for Tennyson. He finally consented to publishing In Memoriam with a last-minute prologue that acknowledged God and perhaps convinced the religious Emily Sellwood to marry him after years of pursuit.. He opened up to Emily, revealing his struggles with fears of depression and “weird seizures.” The devastating event of that time was the stillborn death of his unnamed first son. It shook him, but Emily’s faith brought them closer and convinced him to believe in an afterlife. Two later sons survived. With the death of William Wordworth in April of 1950, Tennyson was named poet laureate at age forty-one, reluctantly accepting. It’s as if Tennyson’s life split in half in that year. He lived another forty years, now a recognized success, with the prestige of being an official poet writing patriotic verse, wealthy and revered, no longer the insecure young man seeking an outlet for his immense talent. He earned a place in the Authors deck, now dignified and in 1884 elevated to the peerage as Arthur, Lord Tennyson. Richard Holmes is the author of twenty previous books on the Romantics and Victorians, several of which received awards. The Boundless Deep was shortlisted for the 2025 Baillie Gifford Prize for Non-Fiction. He captures the complex vicissitudes of Tennyson’s youth, illustrated by frequent excerpts from the poetry, placing that life in the full context of the shattering discoveries that led to an upheaval of thought in the Victorian age.
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