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Ronald Smothers, Times Reporter Who Covered Protest and Politics, Dies at 79
In a career that included 35 years at The New York Times, he chronicled the Rev. Jesse Jackson’s 1984 presidential run and the bombing at the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta.
Jaguars' updated defensive depth chart after 2026 NFL draft
Following the 2026 NFL draft, here is an updated look at the Jaguars' defensive depth chart.
United Way launches fundraising for new mental health fund
United Way of Northeast Florida launched a campaign to raise $250,000 for its mental health programs by May 31.
"Severance" star and Jackson State alum gives commencement speech. See photos
Jackson State University alum and "Severance" actor Tramell Tillman gives the graduation speech at Lee E. Williams AAC in Jackson, MS, on May 2, 2026.
Jacksonville State softball's Conference USA tournament seed, schedule
What seed is Jacksonville State softball for Conference USA tournament? See the Gamecocks schedule after they earned a first round bye.
Rory Diamond calls for 'race-neutral' Jacksonville City Council map before next local election
The Beaches Republican has not ruled out a run for Mayor.
2026 Cram for the Exam AP Government & Politics Exam Review
Former C-SPAN Teacher Fellow and Troy, Michigan teacher Ryan Werenka and Petaluma, California teacher Kevin Jackson answered students' questions about the upcoming Advanced Placement U.S. Government and Politics Exam and shared tips on how students can best prepare for the test.
There will never be a star as big or as complicated as Michael Jackson. Making an honest movie about him is impossible.
"Michael" immediately broke box office records and brought audiences to their feet. It's difficult to ignore what the movie overlooks, though.
Ypsilanti Lincoln vs Jackson | HS Boys Lacrosse Highlights
Airdate: April 29th, 2026 Ypsilanti Lincoln vs Jackson | HS Boys Lacrosse Highlights | JTV SportsApril 30, 2026Tim & Torri Meunier, Jackson First United Methodist ChurchApril 30, 2026Katie Osman & Megan Stevens, VCL Schools Yes CommitteeApril 30, 2026Today’s News – Thursday April 30th – The Morning ShowApril 30, 2026Girls Soccer Ypsilanti Lincoln at Jackson, 04-29-2026…
This Week in Jacksonville - Business Edition: Riverfront key in $2.5B downtown developments
Kent Justice talks with Colin Tarbert, the new CEO of Jacksonville’s Downtown Investment Authority, about what DIA actually does and what’s driving the current wave of downtown activity.
What draft experts said about new Jaguars WR Josh Cameron
Here is what several draft analysts had to say about new Jaguars' WR Josh Cameron in their pre-draft scouting reports.
Better Business Bureau: Protect bank account information
BBB of the Mid-South President and CEO Randy Hutchinson discusses weekly how consumers can protect assets and avoid scams.
Jacksonville reviewing ‘home occupations’ legislation, covering businesses operated from homes
Jacksonville’s Planning Department is seeking approval to update the city’s zoning code rules for home occupations in Section 656 so they match Florida Statute 559.955.
Todd Bridges reveals shocking sexual encounter with Dana Plato on 'Diff'rent Strokes' set: 'How would a 12-year-old girl know about that?'
On the latest episode of 'Hollywood Demons,' Todd Bridges opened up about the troubled life of his 'Diff'rent Strokes' costar Dana Plato, including a shocking sexual encounter on set.
Report: Jaguars 'considered' trading into Round 1 with unique approach
The Jaguars reportedly considered trading into the first round of the 2026 NFL draft with a unique approach.
Ravens' biggest offseason question won't please Lamar Jackson
This is far from ideal.
Michael Jackson streams skyrocket after 'Michael' biopic opening weekend, up 95% in the US
Michael Jackson sang “Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough.” | Talk 1370
Michael Jackson streams skyrocket after 'Michael' biopic opening weekend, up 95% in the US
Michael Jackson sang “Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough.” | KMBZ
Audience Says: Michael Is Pure Entertainment for MJ Fans
The biopic is Verified Hot, with dazzled fans calling it the closest you can come to an actual Michael Jackson concert.
‘Charlie’s Angels’ Star Kate Jackson Makes Blunt Confession About Leaving Hollywood
Her last acting credit was in 'Criminal Minds' in 2007.
‘Charlie’s Angels’ Star Kate Jackson Makes Blunt Confession About Leaving Hollywood
Her last acting credit was in 'Criminal Minds' in 2007.
Gossip: Blues consider reuniting with Conte
Napoli manager Antonio Conte is among the candidates being considered by Chelsea as the permanent successor to Liam Rosenior next season. Express) Porto boss Francesco Farioli is also on Chelsea's shortlist but his contract runs until 2028 and contains a 20m euros (£17.3m) release clause. Nicolo Schira) Newcastle have emerged as contenders to sign Nicolas Jackson, who will return to Chelsea in the summer after Bayern Munich confirmed they will not turn the striker's loan into a permanent move.
Brooklyn College Hosts Urgent Discussion on Black Maternal Health Crisis
The event, attended by students, faculty, staff, and community members, was held in conjunction with the 2026 Perinatal Mental Health Summit at the Greg Jackson Center for Brownsville.
Newcastle interested in signing Nicolas Jackson after Bayern Munich decide to end loan in summer
Mondays top stories include: Nottingham Forest want the Championships top man Hayden Hackney to replace Elliot Anderson; Arsenal are monitoring Brazil forward Endrick; Man Utd have added Atalanta star Ederson to their shortlist as they attempt to sign a replacement for Casemiro
'Michael' moonwalks into a big box office debut
"Michael," the Michael Jackson biopic from Lionsgate, had a massive opening weekend with a box office haul of $97 million in the U.S. and Canada. The film, which stars Jackson's
‘Michael’ moonwalks to $97 million opening, shattering record for music biopics
“Michael,” the big-budget Michael Jackson spectacle, shrugged off bad reviews and a troubled production to launch with $97 million in U.S. and Canada theaters, according to studio estimates Sunday, shattering a record debut for music biopics.
'Michael' moonwalks to $97 million opening, shattering record for music biopics
“Michael,” the big-budget Michael Jackson spectacle, shrugged off bad reviews and a troubled production to launch with $97 million in U.S. and Canada theaters, according to studio estimates Sunday, shattering a record debut for music biopics | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
'Michael' moonwalks to $97 million opening, shattering record for music biopics
“Michael,” the big-budget Michael Jackson spectacle, shrugged off bad reviews and a troubled production to launch with $97 million in U.S. and Canada theaters, according to studio estimates Sunday, shattering a record debut for music biopics | KNSS Radio
'Michael' moonwalks to $97 million opening, shattering record for music biopics
“Michael,” the big-budget Michael Jackson spectacle, shrugged off bad reviews and a troubled production to launch with $97 million in U.S. and Canada theaters, according to studio estimates Sunday, shattering a record debut for music biopics | Talk 1370
'Michael' moonwalks to $97 million opening, shattering record for music biopics
“Michael,” the big-budget Michael Jackson spectacle, shrugged off bad reviews and a troubled production to launch with $97 million in U.S. and Canada theaters, according to studio estimates Sunday, shattering a record debut for music biopics | WBEN
Jaguars ranked near bottom in 2026 NFL draft class value
Only three teams ranked worse than the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026 NFL draft class value.
Multiple siblings of Michael Jackson's 'second family' accuse him of sexual abuse and grooming in new lawsuit
Four siblings who previously defended Michael Jackson against child molestation allegations have filed a lawsuit against the singer's estate, accusing him of sexually assaulting each of them repeatedly.
Mainz 05 3-1 Bayern Munich: TOR! Nicolas Jackson pulls one back for Bayern
FC Bayern must manage its players for PSG next week
Cowboys, Ravens Set to Square Off in NFL's Inaugural Rio de Janeiro Game
The Ravens will meet up with the Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro for the Brazilian city's first NFL game.
Saenger Theater brings diverse entertainment to Hattiesburg
HATTIESBURG, Miss. (WHLT) – The Saenger Theater in Hattiesburg continues to bring a wide range of entertainment to the Pine Belt. The venue has served the community since 1929. It first opened with si...
Health Dept. to present workshop with resources for problem gambling
JACKSON, Wyo. — Join the Teton County Health Department (TCHD) for a workshop about the “hidden addiction” of problem gambling. The workshop is designed to help the community recognize the signs of and find support for gambling addictions. It is often referred to as a “hidden addiction” because there are no physical signs like those […]
'Michael' Is An Entertaining, Yet Incomplete, Portrait Of An Icon
With help from the 'Michael' movie cast, Colman Domingo, Nia Long, Jaafar Jackson, and director Antoine Fuqua, here’s our breakdown of the controversial film.
New movies to watch this weekend: See 'Michael' in theaters, rent 'Tow,' stream 'Apex' on Netflix
Is the Michael Jackson biopic any good? Jaafar Jackson deserves praise — but reviews are brutal.
Does new Michael Jackson movie include marriage to Lisa Marie Presley?
Lisa Marie Presley married Michael Jackson, the so-called King of Pop, on May 26, 1994, in a private ceremony in the Dominican Republic.
USA Today Acoustic hosts Jackson Dean
Jackson Dean on USA Today Acoustic
Downtown Jackson concert series starts Saturday. Who's playing? Where to go
The Mississippi Mass Choir kicks off a new concert series in Downtown Jackson on April 25. It is the first of 30 free concerts.
'Trump with a Southern tone': Governor candidate visits Augusta
When you've built a $3 billion business, he said, you learn a few things about solving problems.
Jackson County Small Business Incubator unveils new office space
A ribbon cutting and Chamber after hours event in Moss Point marked a major expansion for the Jackson County Small Business Incubator.
Michael Jackson Biopic Cast Looks Shockingly Like The Real People They Play
"Michael," a film about the life and early career of the King of Pop, nailed it with these looks.
“Leaving Neverland” director says Michael Jackson was 'worse than Jeffrey Epstein,' fans want to forget abuse claims
"How can you tell an authentic story about Michael Jackson without ever mentioning the fact that he was seriously accused of being a child molester?" Dan Reed asked.
'Leaving Neverland' director says Michael Jackson was 'worse than Jeffrey Epstein,' fans want to forget abuse claims
'Leaving Neverland' director Dan Reed slammed the Michael Jackson biopic 'Michael' for ignoring allegations of child sexual abuse, and opined that the late 'Thriller' singer was 'worse than Jeffrey Epstein.'
Who Is John Branca? How the Entertainment Lawyer Launched Michael Jackson to Pop Superstardom
Miles Teller portrays Branca in the new biopic, ‘Michael,’ about Jackson’s life and early solo career.
“Michael,” Reviewed: A Sanitized Bio-Pic That’s All Business
The new movie details the backstage maneuvers that catapulted Michael Jackson to stardom but leaves his personal life out of the picture.
Jackson County task force meets to plan future of Truman Sports Complex
The task force meetings are not open to the public. LeVota said the group does not qualify as a public government entity under Missouri law.
Janet and Paris Jackson skipped the 'Michael' premiere
Janet Jackson isn't portrayed in the 'Michael' biopic and she skipped the premiere along with Paris Jackson. Here's why they both bowed out and what the cast is saying about leaving sexual assault allegations on the cutting room floor.
David Jackson, longtime White House correspondent for USA TODAY, dies
Jackson covered every president from Bill Clinton to Donald Trump, and was a fixture on the campaign trail.
Capitol Police investigate fatal shooting at business in Jackson
One person is dead after a shooting on April 22 at a business on East Northside Drive in Jackson. Capitol Police are investigating.
La Toya Jackson explains why Janet Jackson isn't in the 'Michael' biopic
Director Antoine Fuqua said that although she doesn't appear in "Michael," Janet Jackson still supports her nephew Jaafar Jackson, who stars as the King of Pop in the biopic.
Black-owned Jackson business sues workforce board over limiting federal funds for student training
A Black-owned West Tennessee forklift training business sued the nonprofit in charge of handing out federal workforce training grant funds.
Michael Jackson biopic premieres this week with mixed reviews
The "Michael" movie follows the "King of Pop," on and off stage and is set to premiere Friday, April 24. See what reviews say.
Jacksonville ranks among top 5 best large cities to start a business
A new WalletHub report ranks Jacksonville as the third-best large U.S. city to start a business. Here's why.
Washington's County's most improved high school spring sports athletes
Washington County's high school varsity spring sports head coaches were asked who their most improved athlete is. Here are their selections.
Partisan politics jolt proposed JEA rate increases
Jacksonville Republican leaders and a Miami political committee's text message attack proposed JEA rate increase and blame Mayor Donna Deegan for it.
Entertainment Look-A-Head: Michael Jackson movie release, Daredevil’s story continues, more games drop
From April 21 - 27, numerous video games launch alongside a wave of streaming content. Major shows like “Andor” and “The Boys” return and the awaited Michael Jackson movie arrives in theaters. The 2026 NFL Draft also begins on Thursday.
Free 'Bluebox' health vending machine opens in Jackson County
Jackson County health leaders have created a new way to promote health and wellness in the community.
From Raines to Reel Life: How this creative is blazing a trail in the entertainment industry
When discussing Raines High School alumni, you typically hear about the athletes who have had professional careers, but this creative is blazing her own trail by representing Jacksonville in the entertainment industry.
From Raines to Reel Life: How this creative is blazing a trail in the entertainment industry
When discussing Raines High School alumni, you typically hear about the athletes who have had professional careers, but this creative is blazing her own trail by representing Jacksonville in the entertainment industry.
Baseball Falls in Series Finale at Jax State
JACKSONVILLE, Ala. – FIU's baseball program fell 7-2 to Jacksonville State in the series finale Sunday afternoon at Rudy Abbott Field at Jim Case Stadium in Conference USA (CUSA) play.
Intriguing running back draft prospect has Jaguars' attention
An intriguing running back prospect has the Jacksonville Jaguars' interest ahead of the 2026 NFL draft.
Louisville denies Sporting Jax men in last-minute finish
Sporting Jax men's soccer is still looking for its first victory, after a last-minute loss to Louisville City in the USL Championship.
Association of Nigerian Physicians in America hosts free health and outreach event in Jackson
Free medical, dental, vision, and social services were offered during a daylong outreach event in Jackson.
The Sphere in Las Vegas is only the first. Where are they opening next?
(NEXSTAR) – The Las Vegas Sphere is just the first of many round, bulbous entertainment venues that the venue’s operators are hoping to open. The first Sphere, located near the Venetian Resort off the...
Jackson County installs free health vending machine to combat overdose deaths
Jackson County Public Health installed its first free health vending machine in downtown Lee’s Summit, offering naloxone and other medical supplies around the clock.
'AI is transforming businesses across America:' EMJ Capital founder
EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson explains his 'new Carvana’ theme, highlighting undervalued companies poised for significant growth on ‘Making Money.’
Anonymous mass text smear campaign targeting Jacksonville leaders likely considered ‘protected speech’
The News4JAX I-TEAM has uncovered new details about an anonymous mass text message campaign targeting two prominent Jacksonville leaders.
The Jacksonville Waves, the city’s newest pro sports team, is set to tip off May 15th
We are less than a month away from tip off for the new women’s basketball league. The Jacksonville Waves play the team’s first game at VyStar Veteran’s memorial Arena on Friday May 15th.
Jacksonville healthcare organizations to host fair offering free screenings, resources, family support
Agape Health and Wellness Center and New Breed Creation Life Center will host a community health fair offering free screenings, resources and family support on Saturday, April 25.
Sporting JAX could clinch home playoff game this weekend
Sporting Club Jacksonville’s women’s team could achieve another milestone in their season of firsts.
Productive tight end has pre-draft meeting with Jacksonville Jaguars
A productive tight end has met with the Jaguars as part of the pre-draft process.
Pentagon defends Pete Hegseth using 'Pulp Fiction' monologue as prayer at worship service
The Pentagon is defending Pete Hegseth after the secretary of war used a Samuel L. Jackson monologue from 'Pulp Fiction' as a prayer at a worship service.
Flutter Entertainment plc ($FLUT) CEO 2025 Pay Revealed
We estimate that the CEO of Flutter Entertainment plc ($FLUT), Peter Jackson, received a compensation of $19,695,957 in 2025. This is a decrease of -12.58% from an estimated $22,174,060 in 2024.These estimates are based on a new DEF14A filing, filed with the SEC on April 16, 2026. Note that parsing errors may occur.You can track $FLUT on Quiver Quantitative's $FLUT stock dashboard.$FLUT Stock Insider Trading Activity$FLUT Stock insiders have trad
Governor fields frustrations from Wyoming business leaders at Jackson venture summit
‘If you're not growing, you're dying,' Gordon warns.
Governor fields frustrations from Wyoming business leaders at Jackson venture summit
‘If you're not growing, you're dying,' Gordon warns.
Did Pete Hegseth just quote 'Pulp Fiction' during a Pentagon worship service?
Pete Hegseth seemed to quote 'Pulp Fiction' as he paraphrased a Bible verse during a recent Pentagon worship service.
Jackson Merrill robs home run, then delivers walk-off hit during Padres' improbable ninth-inning comeback
Lehigh Sports Central: Men's Tennis
On the latest episode of Lehigh Sports Central, men's tennis senior Jackson Morash and 5th year Sean Jaeger preview this Saturday's Senior Day matchup agains...
Justice Jackson calls out Supreme Court conservatives' pro-Trump emergency orders
Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson has delivered a sustained attack on her conservative colleagues’ use of emergency orders to benefit the Trump administration, calling the orders “scratch-paper musings” that can “seem oblivious and thus ring hollow.”
Common Ravens draft theme emerging for Lamar Jackson
This is now becoming a regular occurrence.
La. Senate panel OKs bill to indoctrinate teens in conservative 'success' ideology
Two Black Democrats on the committee, Katrina Jackson-Andrews and Sidney Barthelemy II, objected to naming the bill after far-right activist Charlie Kirk, who had a history of publicly making racist and other derogatory comments.
River City Science Academy teacher arrested, accused ‘grooming’ student using messages on Canva app
A River City Science Academy teacher was arrested Tuesday and charged with felony counts alleging he solicited a romantic relationship with a student and unlawfully used a communication device, the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office said.
State approves $3 Million for Northwest Jacksonville programs for small businesses, crime prevention
City officials announced that the state has approved a $3 million appropriation to support programs in northwest Jacksonville aimed at boosting small businesses, expanding vocational and workforce training, addressing food insecurity and preventing youth crime.
Joey and Pacey forever! Katie Holmes and Joshua Jackson walk the red carpet together at 'Brunello' screening
Katie Holmes and Joshua Jackson had a sweet 'Dawson's Creek' reunion on the red carpet Tuesday night, which comes two months after the untimely death of their costar James Van Der Beek.
Previewing Jaguars' tight end position ahead of 2026 NFL draft
With the 2026 NFL draft near, we will be taking a position-by-position look at where things stand with the Jaguars. Up next are the tight ends.
How 1 GOP billionaire is upending Georgia politics
Rick Jackson came out of nowhere. All of a sudden, he’s everywhere.
Asian carp politics, teen takeover solutions | The Chicago Report
The Trump administration and Illinois continue their back-and-forth over the vital Asian carp Great Lakes project. A child psychologist discusses the rise in viral teen takeovers. And we hear from Yusef Jackson as he takes over his father's organization, Rainbow PUSH.
Orioles manager Craig Albernaz has broken jaw, 7 facial fractures after getting hit by Jeremiah Jackson line drive
Coveted transfers Flory Bidunga, Jackson Shelstad reportedly commit to Louisville
Bidunga and Shelstad were two of the top players in the transfer portal.
Sparks trade forward Jackson to the Sky for guard Atkins
LOS ANGELES -- It had been rumbling for days now but this was still a surprise when first mentioned.
Prom 2026 photos. Forest Hill dance at Ice House in Jackson, MS
Forest Hill High School had its prom at the Ice House in Jackson, Miss., on Saturday, April 11, 2026.
Mississippi Museum of Natural Science hosts 2026 NatureFEST
JACKSON, Miss. (WJTV) – The Mississippi Museum of Natural Science (MMNS) hosted its annual NatureFEST on Saturday. Community members were able to experience and learn about the tangible research by sc...
Gary Jackson featured at FMU School of Business for annual Common Author Colloquium
More than 60 students, faculty and community members gathered at Harris Auditorium Thursday for the annual Common Author Colloquium featuring author Gary Jackson, who discussed his new book “Small Lives: Poems,” which reimagines superheroes with new themes. The event, hosted by Shawn Smolen-Morton, chair of Francis Marion University’s Department of Modern Languages and professor of...
Fox News Entertainment Newsletter: Kelly Ripa’s secret signal, ‘Charlie’s Angels’ star on price of fame
The Fox News Entertainment Newsletter brings you the latest Hollywood headlines, celebrity interviews and stories from Los Angeles and beyond.
Fox News Entertainment Newsletter: Kelly Ripa's secret signal, 'Charlie's Angels' star on price of fame
The Fox News Entertainment Newsletter brings you the latest Hollywood headlines, celebrity interviews and stories from Los Angeles and beyond.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Jackson and Josephine County Health Fair returns April 18
Health officials invite community members to attend the Jackson & Josephine County Health Fair 2026, a free regional event focused on connecting residents with health services, community resources and family-friendly […]