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Doom developer id reportedly cut in half as part of Xbox layoffs
A legendary studio is losing a lot of staff.
How is id Software supposed to keep making DOOM after Xbox reportedly laid off half the studio?
Xbox's reported layoffs have reportedly cut around half of id Software, raising serious questions about the future of DOOM and id Tech.
The plan to make climate science harder to erase
This story was originally published by Grist. When Rebecca Lindsey was fired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last February, the first thing she did was stew. Then she worried about what was going to happen to the website she and her team had built over the last decade and a half. Lindsey had […]
Half of Americans struggle to afford groceries and gas, exclusive poll finds
About 57% of polled Americans also believe economy is worsening in grim portrait of cost of living crisis, according to Harris survey for the Guardian
Fast walkers in their 80s cut their risk of cognitive decline by half, study finds
A new study of people 80 and older with exceptional gaits finds fast walkers have about a 50% lower risk of cognitive decline, showing the connection between physical health and brain health.
Dodgers notes: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto
The Dodgers are riding high during their final homestand of the first half, taking a commanding 3-0 series lead over the San Diego Padres after shutting them out 3-0 on Saturday. The latter game’s success was done without Shohei Ohtani in the lineup, as the two-way superstar was absent after striking out nine hitters in […]
Science & Medicine: Training health care workers to save lives in Texas maternity care deserts
In the nearly half of Texas counties considered maternity care deserts, few health care workers are trained to handle a pregnancy emergency like maternal cardiac arrest. A simulation-based training program from an expert at UT San Antonio's Kate Marmion School of Public Health aims to change that, and reduce preventable deaths in the process.
Science & Medicine: Training health care workers to save lives in Texas maternity care deserts
In the nearly half of Texas counties considered maternity care deserts, few health care workers are trained to handle a pregnancy emergency like maternal cardiac arrest. A simulation-based training program from an expert at UT San Antonio's Kate Marmion School of Public Health aims to change that, and reduce preventable deaths in the process.
Secure the Future of Children's Health Care Coverage
Nearly half of America's children rely on Medicaid and CHIP for their health coverage. This fact sheet lays out the steps Congress must take to secure children's health care coverage for the future.
Steve-O reveals which 'half-assed' 'Jackass' stunt was preceded by 'a day doing cocaine'
Steve-O revealed which 'Jackass' stunt he performed after he spent 'a day doing cocaine.'
Cease won’t desist, Jays beat M’s 2-0
Tonight’s game began with a raucous ceremonial first pitch from head coach Mauricio Pochettino and the U.S. Men’s National Team. Canada would own the rest of the night. The first inning was the canary in the coal mine, as J.P. Crawford biffed yet another throw from the hot corner in the top half, and in […]
Vagus Nerve Stimulation Has a Profound Impact on Severe Depression, Major Trial Finds
“They had spent more than half of their lives sick."
Mamdani’s politics of joy: What can Arkansas politicians learn from New York’s jubilant mayor?
Zohran Mamdani’s first half-year in office has been a mixed bag when it comes to policy outcomes. There is, however, one area of unquestioned success for the NY mayor: the forging of a sustained politics of joy unmatched by that of any major American politician in recent decades.
Goldman dominates first-half M&A as dealmaking surges in EMEA
Goldman Sachs increased its share of mergers and acquisitions advisory work involving Europe, the Middle East and Africa in the first half of 2026, capturing the biggest slice of the market in the period for nearly a decade, LSEG data showed.
Scientists have detected a giant fan-shaped structure buried beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, suggesting the frozen continent may be hiding the geological scars of the breakup that helped separate Antarctica from Australia
East Antarctica can look, from above, like the quiet half of the frozen continent: old, thick, cold and buried under kilometres of ice. But beneath that ice, new mapping suggests the bedrock may carry the shape of a much more violent past. In a Nature Geoscience study published in June 2026, researchers described a giant […]
Questions raised about Senator Mitch McConnell’s health after little information is released
Numerous people from Frankfort to Washington are saying very little about long time serving US Senator Mitch McConnell following reports he was hospitalized nearly 2 and a half weeks ago.
Heat Wave Politics: GOP Leaders Deride Calls to Conserve
With half of Americans under a major heat advisory, official warnings and response are colored by the nation’s deep political divide.
Fox Sports rules analyst Mark Clattenburg: Folarin Balogun red card ‘shouldn’t have been a VAR intervention’
A delightful win for the USMNT on Wednesday night was overshadowed by a questionable red card on striker Folarin Balogun, immediately casting concern over the national team’s next match on Monday as Balogun serves a suspension. The second-half booking came after Balogun became tangled up with a Bosnian defender. In real time, the play did…
Oregon’s top public health official resigns
Oregon’s top public health official is stepping down from her role after two and a half years. Dr. Sejal Hathi, who joined the Oregon Health Authority in January 2024, will leave Aug. 1 to focus on family and personal priorities, the governor’s office announced Thursday. Hathi, who earns $265,488 per year, joined the Oregon Health […]
Colorado business confidence improves but still pessimistic
Halfway into the year, business confidence across Colorado has improved but is still negative, a new report found. The Leeds Business Confidence Index, a measurement of how business leaders across Colorado feel about the future of the national and state economy, increased by one point to a score of 43, according to a report released […]
Colorado business confidence improves but still pessimistic
Halfway into the year, business confidence across Colorado has improved but is still negative, a new report found. The Leeds Business Confidence Index, a measurement of how business leaders across Colorado feel about the future of the national and state economy, increased by one point to a score of 43, according to a report released […]
Colorado business confidence improves but still pessimistic
Halfway into the year, business confidence across Colorado has improved but is still negative, a new report found. The Leeds Business Confidence Index, a measurement of how business leaders across Colorado feel about the future of the national and state economy, increased by one point to a score of 43, according to a report released […]
‘Super movers’ have half the risk of brain decline in old age — even if their brains show signs of dementia
Colorado governor fires two clemency board members who spoke out about Tina Peters’ commutation
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis on Wednesday fired two members of the state’s clemency board after they spoke out against his controversial decision to grant clemency to Tina Peters – an election denier whose sentence was cut in half by the outgoing Democratic governor in May.
2026 World Cup: USMNT striker Folarin Balogun shown red card in second half after first-half goal
Sudden danger: the science and stakes of flash flood forecasting
Flash floods pose a major threat to lives and property. When it comes to researching them, understanding the rain as it falls is only half the battle. The next step is knowing how the water will move once it hits the ground.
Poll: Most Americans think the U.S. has strayed from its founding principles
Most Americans believe the country has moved away from its founding principles as the nation prepares for its big 250th anniversary, a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll finds. Eighty-three percent of U.S. adults feel America has strayed from the ideals the country was founded on two-and-a-half centuries ago. Among them, close to half of Americans — 47% — say the U.S. has "moved far away" from these principles, joined by 36% who said America has “moved
Supreme Court upholds transgender sports bans: What to know and what’s next
The Supreme Court on Tuesday upheld state bans on transgender students playing on girls sports teams, delivering another blockbuster setback to trans youth and their families in a decision that is likely to sustain similar laws in about half of the nation.
Supreme Court upholds transgender sports bans: What to know and what’s next
The Supreme Court on Tuesday upheld state bans on transgender students playing on girls sports teams, delivering another blockbuster setback to trans youth and their families in a decision that is likely to sustain similar laws in about half of the nation.
3 Reasons Why I'm Loading Up on Penn Entertainment in the Second Half of 2026
Penn Entertainment stock is soaring and it has the potential to build on those gains in the second half of 2026.
3 Reasons Why I'm Loading Up on Penn Entertainment in the Second Half of 2026
Penn Entertainment stock is soaring and it has the potential to build on those gains in the second half of 2026.
Trans Sports Ruling Puts Pressure on States Without Bans
Almost half of states do not prohibit trans girls and women from competing. The Supreme Court ruling doesn’t force them to, but lawmakers and voters could change that.
Politics: High Cost Of Healthcare And The Political Fallout
Americans are grappling with a rising cost in healthcare. For the first time in five years, fewer than half of Americans can consistently afford healthcare. That’s according to the latest data from Gallup. The cost of healthcare in the US remains higher than any other large, wealthy country. According to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services, five million fewer people are enrolled in marketplace plans for 2026, compared to last year. That’s as average premium costs rose about 58%.With health care costs increasingly becoming a stress for Americans, voters are now making the issue a top priority at the ballot box. And it’s an issue that crosses party and geographic lines. According to new polling from The Century Foundation, 71% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 75% of rural voters agree that reigning in hospital costs should be a top priority for lawmakers. While new polling from Ipsos and Axios suggests that a majority of Americans say they’re more likely to vote for candidates in November who will lower their health costs.How will the issue of healthcare shape the midterms? And how are Americans grappling with the cost of their health?Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.
Politics: High Cost Of Healthcare And The Political Fallout
Americans are grappling with a rising cost in healthcare. For the first time in five years, fewer than half of Americans can consistently afford healthcare. That’s according to the latest data from Gallup. The cost of healthcare in the US remains higher than any other large, wealthy country. According to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services, five million fewer people are enrolled in marketplace plans for 2026, compared to last year. That’s as average premium costs rose about 58%.With health care costs increasingly becoming a stress for Americans, voters are now making the issue a top priority at the ballot box. And it’s an issue that crosses party and geographic lines. According to new polling from The Century Foundation, 71% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 75% of rural voters agree that reigning in hospital costs should be a top priority for lawmakers. While new polling from Ipsos and Axios suggests that a majority of Americans say they’re more likely to vote for candidates in November who will lower their health costs.How will the issue of healthcare shape the midterms? And how are Americans grappling with the cost of their health?Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.
Business Owner with Down Syndrome Expresses 'Gratitude' as He Celebrates First Retail Store Opening
John’s Crazy Socks launched online in 2016, and has shipped half a million to date
N.I.H. Announces World’s Largest Integrated Health Database
It contains more than half a million people’s genomes, paired with clinical records and wearable tech data. That gives researchers unmatched power to study both diseases and treatments.
Half of states sue over Medicaid work requirements
FDA peptide panelists, a new study on Covid and flu shots, and more health news from Morning Rounds
Guns Of Eschaton Is A Western Soulslike FPS Envisioned By The Late Artist Of Half-Life 2 And Dishonored
The late Victor Antonov envisioned this occult spin on 19th century America.
"We're talking about at least half a decade of horror": former Exodus lead explains why he wasn't keen on doing a Baldur's Gate 4 despite Hasbro offering the chance
After Larian opted against a Baldur's Gate 4, Hasbro asked Archetype Entertainment head James Ohlen if he fancied a crack at it and he wasn't keen.
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: Breaking down every team's closer situation at the halfway point
Grant Taylor, Alex Lange and Yoendrys Gomez headline the latest bullpen report
Decline in plankton across Northeast Atlantic sends stark warning for ocean health
Microscopic plankton are among the most important organisms on Earth. Phytoplankton produce around half of the oxygen we breathe, while plankton as a whole underpin marine food webs, support fisheries, ...
Supreme Court rules states can count late-arriving mailed ballots, rejecting Trump-led challenge
The decision rejected a Republican-led attack on laws in more than half the states and the District of Columbia that permit mailed ballots to arrive and be counted some number of days after the election, provided they are postmarked by Election Day.
Kakao Entertainment Announces Genre-Spanning Lineup
Kakao Entertainment enjoyed a highly successful first half of the year, with its Netflix series “The WONDERfools” and “Boyfriend on Demand” hitting global home runs with their distinctive narratives. Also building on the recently released suspense drama “Notes from the Last Row,” Kakao Entertainment’s genre-spanning 2026 slate features the upcoming action-comedy “A Bona Fide Killer” and the thriller “Mousetrap,” cementing - Read our full Pop Culture on The Outerhaven .
Tilak Varma enters unwanted record books after slowest-ever...
Tilak Varma's resilient half-century was a lone bright spot for India in their narrow one-run loss to Ireland, despite becoming one of the slowest Indian fifties in T20Is. Walking in during a top-order collapse, Varma battled tough conditions to reach his milestone. Ultimately, Ireland secured a historic series win, ending India's impressive streak.
Running through challenges: Elite runner returns to Missoula Half Marathon after health complications
Abby Rodseth finished as the 11th woman in the Missoula Half Marathon, completing an emotional return to competitive running.
New Captain Jack Sparrow Entertainment Coming to 2026 Mickey's Not So Scary Halloween Party
Halfway to the Holidays is over, which can only mean one thing: Halloween is almost here at Walt Disney World!!! Don't roll your eyes or laugh. This isn't a joke. At least, not a funny
Maine targets three initiatives for initial use of federal rural health funds
The Mills administration says it's decided how it will spend nearly half of the $190 million it's received this year through the federal Rural Health Transformation Fund.
Caminero to the moon: Rays 4, D-Backs 2
Before you could grab your hot dog, popcorn, and preferred pilsner beverage, the Diamondbacks took a 1-0 lead on a Geraldo Perdomo double, Corbin Carroll single, and a whiff of a tag from catcher Hunter Feduccia. In the bottom half of the first, Junior Caminero hit a thunderous, sky-scraping blast for his sixth homer in […]
Eugenio Suárez rescues Reds in 9-7 win over Pirates
The Reds got a 9th inning homer from the slugger they hope can carry them through the season’s second half.
Soccer meets nature at Vancouver mountaintop watch party
The match between England and Panama was shown on a big screen atop Grouse Mountain, a 4,100-foot mountain that's part of the Pacific Ranges with a sweeping view of British Columbia. When Jude Bellingham scored England's breakthrough goal in the second half, the fans roared. Both Toronto and Vancouver are hosting matches during the tournament.
Fiorentina agreement for Beltran, but striker resists River Plate
Fiorentina have agreed to sell half of Lucas Beltran to River Plate following the loan at Valencia, but it’s reported the player wants to remain in Europe.The striker spent time in the River Plate a...
NASA's canceled Artemis hardware contracts reached $5.9 billion, audit finds
NASA was on track to pay nearly half a billion dollars for a stage adapter. A stage adapter should not cost half a billion dollars.
What we learned as Bryce Harper caps Phillies' shocking comeback trilogy
The Phillies erased another five-run deficit, rallied late again and reached the season’s halfway point with another reminder of how much has changed.
21ALIVE SPORTS DIGITAL EXCLUSIVE: Loyer to the Clippers, TinCaps find second half success
21Alive Sports Director Andy Newman and Weekend Sports Anchor Nia Hinson catch you up on this week’s sports news.
Android 17’s new foldable gaming mode could make flippy phones more fun
A whole half of your screen will be dedicated to touch controls.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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