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Mike Minogue wins Mass. GOP endorsement for governor in a landslide
Former Baker Administration official Mike Kennealy fell just short of making the primary ballot.
I Fell in Love With My Best Friend. I Could Never Have Predicted How It Ended.
Everyone used to think we were dating. I thought it was only a matter of time until we were.
WORLD IP DAY 2026: "Ready, Set, Innovate" - Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council
Small Businesses, Innovators, Creators Drive Innovation and Growth SBE Council is proud to join our small business allies and fellow organizations – all dedicated to fueling innovation and protecting intellectual property (IP) – in celebrating WORLD IP DAY 2026. The goal of the day is to increase the general understanding of the importance of IP. […]
New fellowship program for senior, experienced tech and scientific innovators
The Belfer Center is seeking applicants from experienced, senior technology and scientific innovators from the private sector to pursue policy-relevant work aimed at expanding the understanding, potential, use, impact, and governance of emerging technologies.
German business sentiment falls in April to lowest level since 2020
German business morale fell more than expected in April, as the Iran war made companies more pessimistic and threatened the long-awaited recovery of Europe's biggest economy.
‘Cold feet’: Deal to buy historic Idaho 55 business called off
A deal to sell Cougar Mountain Lodge fell apart on Wednesday night amid the buyers’ concerns about plans to convert the property into an event venue. Treasured antiques that have decorated the historic lodge in Smiths Ferry were set to be sold this Saturday, April 25, as part of a separate sale at the property, but that, […]
Tim Cook Calls Apple Maps Launch His 'First Really Big Mistake' as CEO
Outgoing Apple CEO Tim Cook has named the botched 2012 launch of Apple Maps as his "first really big mistake" in the role, according to a Bloomberg report covering the town hall meeting that was held Tuesday with his recently announced successor, John Ternus. The Maps app launched with mislabeled landmarks, faulty directions, and a user experience that fell well short of Google Maps at the time.
2026 Geochemistry Fellow David Catling reflects on a career spent trying to answer science’s biggest questions
2026 Geochemistry Fellow David Catling reflects on a career spent trying to answer science’s biggest questions
Entwisle named to American Academy of Arts and Sciences - College of Arts and Sciences
Carolina sociologist Barbara Entwisle has been elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Entwisle is the Kenan Distinguished Professor of Sociology and fellow of the Carolina Population Center.
Six RPI students awarded National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowships
Six RPI students have been awarded fellowships from the National Science Foundation’s Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP). A highly prestigious and competitive award, the fellowship supports full-time graduate students with the potential to make significant contributions in STEM.
Entertainment briefs | ‘Dance Visions’ at Cal Poly Humboldt
“The Year to Save the Earth,” a multimedia experience mixing powerful songs and projected images, will be featured May 1 at 7 p.m. at the Humboldt Unitarian Universalist Fellowship, 24 Fellowship Way off Jacoby Creek Road in Bayside. “The Y…
Physician-author Dr. Jeremy Faust shares science communication tips during visit to Yale
Faust talked about the importance of health and science communication during a recent visit to YSPH as an invited guest of the university’s Poynter Fellowship
Four ECEE students earn major National Science Foundation research fellowships
Four students from the Department of Electrical, Computer & Energy Engineering at CU Boulder have been recognized with 2026 National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program awards. NSF GRFP recognizes and support outstanding grad students from across the country in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields who are pursuing research-based master’s or doctoral degrees.Awardees receive a $37,000 annual stipend and cost of education allowance for the next three years as well as professional development opportunities.Learn more about their research below
Eight Yale scholars elected to American Academy of Arts & Sciences
The new members, who have made key contributions in a range of fields, join previously elected fellows in helping to “advance the common good” across the arts, democracy, education, global affairs, and science.
Lily Sones ’25 Brings Science Down to Earth
The recent graduate has a unique role with the National Wildlife Federation: the Offshore Wind Energy team’s Storytelling Fellow.
Michigan rep rips fellow Democrats for 'troubling' convention behavior
Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet said behavior at the Democratic convention in Detroit is a "step in the wrong direction" that could hurt Dems in November
Spurs 'have more chance than they had last week'
The wisdom of crowds is sometimes overlooked - and it was again on Saturday in a crucial moment during the Tottenham v Brighton game. Up 2-1 in the 95th minute, the ball fell to Tottenham's Kevin Danso in his own box. Danso dithered, Jan Paul van Hecke nipped in, and seconds later two crucial points evaporated on the altar of progressive ideology.
How Nestlé’s pioneering China business fell into disarray
Chinese distributors are chasing the Swiss giant for refunds after it allegedly oversupplied the market as demand dropped
Kylie Jenner sued by former housekeeper alleging hostile work environment
Kylie Jenner is being sued by a former housekeeper who says she has post-traumatic stress disorder after allegedly suffering 'severe harassment' from fellow staff while working for the beauty mogul.
Three URI students awarded prestigious National Science Foundation graduate research fellowships
KINGSTON, R.I. – April 21, 2026 – Three students from the University of Rhode Island were selected from a highly competitive pool of candidates for the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program for the 2026-27 academic year. David Amirsadri and Colby Constantine, who earned bachelor’s degrees in chemical engineering from URI last spring, and […]
Smith hits fifty as Rawalpindiz misery continues
Steve Smith's half-century helped Multan Sultans inflict an eighth straight defeat on Rawalpindiz. Australia's Smith struck 56 from 31 balls at the top of the order to set up Multan's chase of 167, while his compatriot Ashton Turner hit an unbeaten 37 to see them over the line with eight balls to spare. Rawalpindiz, who are already eliminated from the PSL, immediately struggled after choosing to bat first as Shahzaib Khan fell in the first over before skipper Muhammad Rizwan trudged to 26 from 29 balls.
ASU geosciences professor named Guggenheim Fellow
S.-H. Dan Shim, a professor of geosciences at Arizona State University's School of Earth and Space Exploration, has been named a 2026 Guggenheim Fellow by the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation, recognizing his interdisciplinary work bridging earth science and astrophysics.
APSU alum Hannah Richards becomes Vanderbilt’s first Schmidt Science Fellow
When Hannah Richards first declared chemistry as her major at Austin Peay State University, she was "100% confident" she would change it.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
When the CEO Becomes the Brand
Research suggests that Elon Musk’s political stance appears to have reshaped how different groups perceive Tesla. Overall sales trends hint at trouble. The company’s growth stalled in 2024, and deliveries fell 8.5% in 2025. But those headline numbers hide what is happening beneath the surface. When the data is broken down by political orientation and by changes in views of Musk, a more complicated pattern emerges. Among right-leaning respondents and those whose opinion of Musk has improved, Tesla’s brand appeal is significantly higher and willingness to pay exceeds that for many competing brands, including Ford, Chevrolet, and Rivian. Among left-leaning consumers and those whose view of Musk has worsened, the opposite is true: Preference and willingness to pay for Tesla drop sharply. The outcome is not a uniform decline but a polarization of demand. Some consumers appear to feel alienated, while others feel more aligned with the brand. This raises an important strategic question of whether companies can influence purchasing decisions across these divided segments by strengthening the underlying value proposition.
UnitedHealth Tops Views, Leads Dow Amid Lower Costs
Earnings rose as the number of insured members fell.
UnitedHealth Group Reports Flat First-Quarter Earnings
One of the nation’s largest insurers, the company’s profits were higher than analysts’ expectations but still fell short of showing a significant comeback.
UnitedHealth Group Reports Flat First-Quarter Earnings
One of the nation’s largest insurers, the company’s profits were higher than analysts’ expectations but still fell short of showing a significant comeback.
NBA playoffs: CJ McCollum, Hawks erupt in fourth quarter to stun Knicks and even series 1-1
The Knicks, with the chance to go up 2-0, completely fell apart in the fourth quarter on Monday night.
US crude futures fall as investors reassess US-Iran risks ahead of ceasefire deadline
U.S. crude futures fell nearly 2% in early Asian trade on Tuesday as investors reassessed supply risk, with uncertainty over U.S.–Iran peace talks persisting ahead of a key ceasefire deadline.
Democrat Betty Yee exits California governor’s race
Betty Yee — a former state controller — announced Monday she was suspending her campaign, just over a week after fellow Democrat and former US Rep. Eric Swalwell left the race following sexual assault allegations that he denies.
16 Clemson students and alumni recognized by National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program
The foundation recognized seven Clemson Fellows and eight alumni for outstanding potential in science and engineering, as well as an Honorable Mention.
Fourteen current or former Notre Dame students awarded NSF Graduate Research Fellowships
Fourteen current or former University of Notre Dame students have been awarded National Science Foundation (NSF) Graduate Research Fellowships, with an additional 12 selected as alternates for the award.
WrestleMania 42 match rankings, grades: Which were best, worst?
WrestleMania 42 had some incredible matches. Which ones were the best and which ones fell short? We rank all 13.
Baseball Falls in Series Finale at Jax State
JACKSONVILLE, Ala. – FIU's baseball program fell 7-2 to Jacksonville State in the series finale Sunday afternoon at Rudy Abbott Field at Jim Case Stadium in Conference USA (CUSA) play.
Four UC Berkeley L&S professors win illustrious Guggenheim Fellowships
From Zora Neale Hurston to Jennifer Doudna, winners of the prestigious Guggenheim Fellowship are known for artistic creations, scientific discoveries and groundbreaking scholarship that fundamentally
Who Speaks for God? Darwinists Do, Apparently
Center for Science and Culture Senior Fellow Stephen Dilley explores this curious phenomenon in his talk at the 2025 Dallas Conference on Science and Faith.
Washington baseball falls 6-4 to Michigan State in opener
The Washington Huskies fell behind early and couldn't muster a comeback in a 6-4 loss to the Michigan State Spartans on Friday.
NSF awards record number of coveted PhD fellowships in surprise move
Quantum science and AI research are big winners just a year after the U.S. funding giant slashed its Graduate Research Fellowship Program awards in half
Zelda taught me the importance of play – and has helped me deal with work, parenting and grief
I initially dismissed the Wid Waker’s cartoonish visuals as juvenile. Then I fell in love with the game sense of joy and have tried to carry it into all aspects of my life
Bismarck nurse uses fellowship to improve patient care
As the latest recipient of the Becky Nelson Fellowship, Ashley Herauf uses her experience as clinic director to help lead change at Sanford.
Opinion: Can Brian Kemp’s Derek Dooley gamble pay off?
The Georgia governor’s decision not to run for U.S. Senate and instead get behind the former University of Tennessee football coach has peeved his fellow Republicans.
Shhh! A new Fells Point lounge wants to be Baltimore’s best-kept secret.
In Baltimore, a city more known for its bars and watering holes than nightclubs, Wonderland wants to draw a crowd that relishes dressing up and letting loose to dance music.
Alstom sheds third of its value after train maker pulls cash flow target
Alstom shares fell more than 33% when they opened with an around 15 minute delay on Friday, after the French train maker pulled its three-year cash flow forecast the night before.
Netflix shares fall after downbeat revenue forecast, co-founder to leave
Shares in Netflix fell sharply in Europe on Friday after the company forecast revenue growth below expectations and as chairman and co-founder Reed Hastings said he would not seek re-election.
House rejects effort to withdraw U.S. forces from Iran war as GOP lawmakers stick with Trump
The House rejected a resolution Thursday requiring President Donald Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from the war with Iran unless Congress authorizes military action. It was the latest such vote that fell short of passage as Republicans largely continue to support Trump's operation.
NFIB small business optimism index falls below 52-year average in March
Small business optimism declined in March as profit trends worsened and uncertainty climbed, according to a survey released Thursday by the National Federation of Independent Business. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, dropping below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the first time since April 2025. The NFIB […]
LA Galaxy Embarrassed and Eliminated 3-0 At Home
Los Angeles, Calif. -- The LA Galaxy were overcome by a scarlet wave, both in the stands and on the field, as they fell 3-0 (2-7 on aggregate) at home to Liga MX champions, Toluca, in the second leg of the Concacaf Champions Cup Quarterfinal on Wednesday, April 15, 2026.
12 Pitt students were named to the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program
The prestigious program supports outstanding students pursuing research-based master's and doctoral degrees with an annual stipend of $37,000.
Small business optimism drops, more owners cautious on spending: NFIB
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 points in March to 95.8, falling below the 52-year average of 98.0. NFIB Research Center executive director Holly Wade breaks down the data and what factors are impacting American small business owners, including price pressures, as uncertainty rises.
English still dominates science, but its share fell from 94% to 85%
In 2023, about 85% of the roughly five million articles indexed in major global databases covering the natural, medical and social sciences were written in English. In 1990, the proportion was considerably ...
Wisconsin men's hockey vs. Denver breaks ESPN viewership records
While the Wisconsin Badgers men's hockey team fell short against Denver, their National Championship game smashed viewership records on ESPN.
AAAS Mass Media Science & Engineering Fellowship welcomes 2026 fellows | American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Fifteen early career scientists — spanning research areas from medical artificial intelligence to exoplanets to bug science — will join newsrooms around the country and in Puerto Rico this summer to contribute their skills towards increased public understanding of science and technology.
Roundup: Business optimism / Cleveland’s housing answer / America at 250
Slipping further: U.S. small business optimism fell for a third straight month in March, hitting its lowest level in nearly a year as the Iran conflict drove up energy costs and uncertainty. Owners reported weaker expectations for profits, sales and economic conditions, while plans for capital spending dropped sharply. Rising input costs are also prompting […]
Hobbs Named Fellow of Indiana Academy of Science
Huntington University is a private, four-year, Christian school of the liberal arts in Indiana offering more than 70 bachelor's, master's, and doctoral programs.
After falling short last season, TF Sport has unfinished business in WEC
TF Sport's Corvettes were in title contention for much of last season but they ultimately fell short This year the aim is to finish the job.
Spain Business Confidence Falls 2.3% in 2Q, Most Since 4Q 2022
Spain’s business confidence fell 2.3% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, the biggest decline since the end of 2022, according to data from the Spanish statistics office. The survey showed 21% of business establishments expect a favorable quarter, while 16% are pessimistic about their business outlook.
Dickey Arctic innovation fellow Matthew Druckenmiller named International Arctic Science Committee president
Druckenmiller will lead the intergovernmental science organization for the next four years.
Vance had two high-profile opportunities to prove himself. Both fell flat
In the latter half of 2025, Vice President JD Vance’s future as the next Republican presidential nominee was looking fairly promising. It’s been a series of unfortunate events since then.
US crude futures fall over $1 as traders weigh supply risks
U.S. crude futures fell more than $1 in early Asian trade on Tuesday as traders balanced heightened supply risks linked to a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with reports that Washington and Tehran were still open to talks after a tense meeting in Islamabad.
Jeanette Gowen Cook named 2025 AAAS fellow
The American Association for the Advancement of Science selected the UNC School of Medicine professor for the prestigious honor.
Geography Graduate Students Receive National Science Foundation Award Offers for the 2026 Graduate Research Fellowship Program
Congratulations to our first year graduate students; Danielle Losos, Emily Nagamoto, and Lauren Palermo for receiving award offers from the National Science
After falling during hurdles, Beckham Borquez shall rise again
Sherman Oaks Notre Dame hurdler Beckham Borquez fell while competing in hurdles at the Arcadia Invitational, but he is planning an immediate comeback.
NSF announces 2026 Graduate Research Fellowship Program award offers
The U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) today announced that it has made offers and will award 2,500 Graduate Research Fellowships for the 2026-2027 academic year...
Rosenior: Chelsea ‘nowhere near’ expectations against Man City
Liam Rosenior was highly critical of Chelsea’s second-half performance after they fell to a 3-0 defeat to Manchester City on Sunday. The Blues started brightly at Stamford Bridge and even thought t...
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to exit politics over sexual assault allegations
An expanding number of Democrats, including fellow Californians, are asking their House colleague to quit his campaign for governor and resign from Congress.
My brother doesn't blink. The internet noticed — and fell in love.
"Blink, Brother, blink." The story behind Jan Risher's younger brother, Brother Blink — the man, the merchandise and a moment they shared as children— with speakers turned toward a front yard full of loblolly pines.
Reconnecting with friends is more important than politics
The original text on the group thread read "Good morning fellas." The originator aspired to gather a number of us who were, and remain, good friends from high school for a ski trip. We'd be based out of his cabin on an alpine lake in Colorado.
Michigan’s strong third inning helps secure win over MSU
EAST LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) – Michigan State’s late comeback fell short against rival Michigan, as the Wolverines came away with the 6-4 win. The win on Saturday was the Wolverines’ fifth straight. Nick Williams hit an RBI single to right field in the second inning, allowing Ryan McKay to score and give MSU an early 1-0 […]
South Carolina sweeps Mizzou in battle of SEC bottom dwellers
The Tigers put up a two-out ninth inning rally, but they fell short in their 6-4 loss to the Gamecocks on Saturday.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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