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Our View: Michigan must stop exporting its mental health crisis
Michigan is sending children hundreds of miles away for mental health treatment because it has failed to build the capacity to care for them at home.
Milwaukee Marathon proves healthy way to deal with college stress
Three college students ran the Milwaukee half marathon together, dressed up as the cutest of cows, as a way to run off stress.
RESULTS: 5K Race Winners at 2026 Covenant Health Knoxville Marathon
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WATE) — Covenant Health Knoxville Marathon weekend is underway! The first day of races began Saturday evening with Covenant Health Kids Run the 5K race. The 5K race began Saturday…
Musicians and music lovers flock to Little River’s Star Tavern
There’s a small blue and red building that sits back from a busy highway in Little River, that one regular customer describes as an “artistic mecca” for musicians. And it is flourishing under Ron Johnson's leadership.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Ways the Golden Knights Can Clinch a Playoff Berth Tonight
The Vegas Golden Knights enter Saturday with a long-awaited opportunity to clinch a playoff berth, capping a season defined several […]
Takeaways From the First Big Gathering of Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates
The National Action Network convention showcased similarities and some differences in a wide open field of possible contenders.
Entertainment venues keep packing Fresno-area calendar. 10 (more) shows to watch
Among a slew of announcements, Broadway in Fresno put out its next lineup: We’re getting the Neil Diamond musical and a return of “Jersey Boys.”
New Myrtle Beach distillery, brewery set for grand opening at Broadway at the Beach
Ole Smoky Distillery and Yee-Haw Brewing Co. are set to open up a joint distillery and brewery at Broadway at the Beach in May, something the brand is calling a "one-of-a-kind" experience for visitors and locals alike.
Entertainment venues keep packing Fresno-area calendar. 10 (more) shows to watch
Among a slew of announcements, Broadway in Fresno put out its next lineup: We’re getting the Neil Diamond musical and a return of “Jersey Boys.”
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
High school sports a big focus
Sports reporter Brian Calloway is among the busiest people at the LSJ almost anytime of the year. That's especially true this time of year.
High school sports a big focus
Sports reporter Brian Calloway is among the busiest people at the LSJ almost anytime of the year. That's especially true this time of year.
Letting kids swear taught me a better way to parent
By dropping the no-swearing rule, I found a calmer, more connected home — and fewer unnecessary arguments with my kids.
Business notes: Providence St. Mary Medical Center welcomes new surgeon
A new surgeon joined St. Mary Medical Center, and the United Way's popular mini golf tournament returns to Walla Walla.
Why Warren Buffett Believes Book Value Cannot Capture a Business's Real Worth
With Berkshire Hathaway's book value per share over- or under-estimating the true value of its businesses, Warren Buffett prefers alternatives to this accounting metric.
Former New York Jets QB Browning Nagle has passed away
Sad news for a former Jets quarterback.
People Throw Away This Common Electronic Item Without Knowing It Holds 450MG of Pure 22-Carat Gold
You have almost certainly thrown this exact item in the trash without a second thought. Inside its forgotten shell sits a hidden payload of genuine 22-carat gold worth far more than the scrap value.
Health chatbots could pave the way for 'AI privilege' in court
Tech companies like OpenAI have many reasons to keep your discussions with health-focused AI locked up.
Updated Dolphins 30 visits – The Splash Zone 4/11/26
Welcome to the Splash Zone, the quickest way to get your day started off right. We bring you a rundown of Miami Dolphins news from the last 24 hours.
Three Takeaways from the Rockets' Shocking Loss to The Timberwolves
The Houston Rockets' win streak gets snapped at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves in an unexpected loss at home.
Trump likes to back winners in foreign elections. The upcoming vote in Hungary will test his clout
Donald Trump has made a public flex of his political influence abroad on a scale that few, if any, U.S. presidents have, trying to marshal power he’s used domestically to sway races around the world
Trump likes to back winners in foreign elections. The upcoming vote in Hungary will test his clout
Donald Trump has made a public flex of his political influence abroad on a scale that few, if any, U.S. presidents have, trying to marshal power he’s used domestically to sway races around the world.
Scientists Uncover Strange New State of Matter Inside Uranus and Neptune
Deep within the distant ice giants of our Solar System, familiar elements may behave in unfamiliar ways.
In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
Iran Unable to Find Mines in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says
The lost mines have prevented Iran from quickly complying with President Trump’s demand to allow more ships to pass through the waterway.
Maryville Entertainment Pavilion work underway
By Kathy Turner • Work is progressing on the new American Legion Entertainment Pavilion at Fireman’s Park in Maryville. Boeker Construction Company was awarded the bid for the project and had a milder-than-usual February and March to thank for the progress. The pavilion will be the setting for many activities and concerts at the park…
Can sports media really change the way you look at sports?
While stats are helpful, very rarely do numbers tell the full story.
Energy drink boom raises heart health concerns, doctors warn
FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WANE) — As energy drinks continue to grow in popularity, health experts in Fort Wayne are raising concerns about what frequent consumption could be doing to the heart. Many of the…
Science students find mentorship and pathways to career success
Batool Abdulruhman and Alyssa Rivera both grew up in rural Valley communities where doctors are scarce and medical care is difficult to access. Now they are on a path to become doctors practicing in the Valley because of the support and mentorship they received through the Center for Access to Science for All (CASA) in […]
Impressive Ulster into Challenge Cup semi-finals
Ulster are one game away from a first European final since 2012 after a 41-24 win over La Rochelle in the Challenge Cup quarter-finals.
Cowboys should consider this offensive player in 1st round
Is there any way you would be okay with Dallas going offense in the first round?
France to Ditch Microsoft Windows as Europe's War on American Tech Rages On
Linux feels more French anyway.
Pontiac Once Ran A Super Bowl Commercial Featuring An Option That Was Cancelled Almost Immediately Because The Suits Freaked Out
Super Bowl commercials have always been a big deal, right from the beginning. You have a massive captive audience, suitable primed on beer and nachos to be as suggestible as possible. That’s why carmakers have always been some of the most eager purchasers of Super Bowl ad time, and why they’ve tended to use it […]
The pros and cons of switching from Kindle to Kobo e-readers
Some BookTokers have declared they're finally ready to leave the Amazon Kindle ecosystem. But the grass isn't always greener.
Ozarks Sports Zone Digital Extra: Midseason spring sports report
The high school sports spring season in the Ozarks hits the midway point.
Ontario Chaffey Community Show Band will present ‘Salute to Entertainment’
The April 13 concert will feature music from Broadway shows, with three guest vocalists.
A local sports bar and grill is opening doors for inclusion and opportunity
As Autism Awareness Month continues, Wayne’s journey serves as a reminder of the importance of community support and the impact of giving everyone a chance to succeed.
Bismarck science center promoting wellness with Gateway to Health event
Bismarck locals and visitors in the area are invited to an event aiming to promote wellness. The Gateway to Science is holding its Gateway to Health event next weekend, which features more than 20 …
‘Overwhelming support’: Wayne Richter raises $82K in first month running to flip HD 85
He’s currently the only Democrat running for the seat.
Goodbye Traditional Bathtubs & Showers – There's A New Trend Taking Over
Technology has made its way into the smallest of spaces in our homes, including the bathroom. There's one smart tech feature in particular that's trending.
‘He crushed it.’ Rummel senior’s home run against Jesuit creates 3-way tie for district lead.
Joel Morange didn’t have much reason to think his fly ball to left field would leave the park.
ASU Health HQ breaks ground
Work is officially underway on the planned ASU Health headquarters building in downtown Phoenix.
Oregon Health Authority says tattoo artists can’t use topical numbing creams, sprays
The Health Licensing Office issued a practice clarification affecting all tattoo artists in Oregon, stating that the use of topical anesthetics is prohibited and always has been.
King County’s mental health expansion 'moving way too slowly,' Zahilay says
We sat down with King County Executive Girmay Zahilay to discuss his vision for mental health and substance use care amid shaky federal and state funding.
Dodgers notes: Alex Vesia, Andy Pages, stadium name change
Last season the Dodgers were able to complete their quest of two straight titles without the help of their best left-handed relief option in the World Series. Alex Vesia was away from the Dodgers during last year’s Fall Classic as he and his wife were grieving the sudden loss of their newborn daughter, Sterling, and […]
Talk back: Tech deal promotes conversations between journalists and those who follow their stories
A media deal is offering a peek into a future where journalists have more than just a one-way conversation with the people following the news. British broadcaster Sky News is leasing technology from...
Texas Children’s Receives $5 Million Estate Legacy Gift to Advance Pediatric Behavioral Health Services
HOUSTON (April 10, 2026) — Texas Children’s announced a very special $5 million estate gift from Houston philanthropist Barbara LeGrange, who passed away last month. When fully realized, her planned gift commitment — made prior to her passing — will provide critical endowed support, along with $1 million in immediate support, for Texas Children’s Behavioral Health Initiative.
Scientists think dark matter might come in two forms
A mysterious glow of gamma rays at the center of the Milky Way has long hinted at dark matter, but the lack of similar signals in smaller dwarf galaxies has cast doubt on that idea. Now, researchers propose a bold twist: dark matter might not be a single particle at all, but a mix of two different types that must interact with each other to produce detectable signals.
Gravitational waves may be hidden in the light atoms emit
Scientists have proposed a surprising new way to detect gravitational waves—by observing how they change the light emitted by atoms. These waves can subtly shift photon frequencies in different directions, leaving behind a detectable signature. The effect doesn’t change how much light atoms emit, which is why it’s gone unnoticed until now. If confirmed, this approach could lead to ultra-compact detectors using cold-atom systems.
Top takeaways from Youngkin's Hannity interview
The former governor talked future plans, Trump ties and his Richmond election strategy.
Augustana Men Lead, Overall Ranked Second in NSIC All-Sports Standings
The NSIC All-Sports Standings have been compiled following the winter season. Again this year, the NSIC will recognize an overall champion along with a men's and a women's champion. Augustana, the seven-time NSIC All-Sports Champion, has 116 points entering the spring. Minnesota State leads the way with 145.50 points. The men lead the way with 63 points, while the women sit sixth with 53.
Scientists to discuss Suncoast environmental threats at free Sarasota panel
One researches dolphin pods in Sarasota Bay. Another studies the impacts of pollution in area waterways. A third leads a consortium that strives to bring awareness to the work of local scientists. Those experts, along with another local environmental advocate, will lead a panel discussion moderated by Suncoast Searchlight on
How Airlines Turned First-Class Seats From Freebies to a Profit Engine
Airlines used to give away most of their nicest seats, but they have increasingly found ways to persuade people to pay a lot for them.
Looking at politics through Lincoln-tinted spectacles
Regular readers of Whale’s Tales may have noticed.
Note to Colorado lawmakers — parents protecting kids isn’t abuse, it’s their job
By Matt Sharp and Sharon Supp During the last few years, the U.S. Supreme Court has made at least one thing clear: Colorado is consistently overreaching to apply its laws in unconstitutional ways. Colorado treated a cake artist with hostility because of his religious beliefs in Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission. The state […]
Pacoima businesses voice safety concerns as RV encampments disrupt local commerce
Pacoima business owners express safety concerns over RV encampments driving customers away, claiming inadequate responses from local officials.
Melania Trump tried to sweep the Epstein saga away, but she ended up reviving it
The most plausible explanation for first lady Melania Trump’s out-of-the-blue address on the Jeffrey Epstein drama was that she was trying to make it go away.
Scientists May Have Found a New Cause of High Blood Pressure, And a Way to Treat It
There's an urgent need for new treatment options.
Rockets Get By 76ers at Home for Eighth Straight Win
The Houston Rockets were on their way to blowing out the Philadelphia 76ers, but had to survive a late run in the fourth from Philly to pull out the win.
'Death of a Salesman' review: The timely Broadway revival feels as urgent as ever
Nathan Lane, Laurie Metcalf, and Christopher Abbott lead a stellar cast in a Broadway revival of Arthur Miller's 'Death of a Salesman' that feels as timely and urgent as ever. Read EW's review.
A junior hit 2 home runs and went the distance in the Hahnville-Mount Carmel softball game
The Hahnville-Mount Carmel softball winner was led by a junior's two-way impact
WATCH: South Phoenix businesses are feeling the heat, and it's not helping business
As temperatures rise in Phoenix, some South Phoenix business owners say the heat is keeping customers away and driving up electric bills.
Motorola Razr 70 renders leak too
It's shown in three of the four colorways in which it will be sold. Today has been filled with Motorola leaks - the Motorola Edge 70 Pro and Razr 70 Ultra...
Highway ad sign costs double, pricing out Montana business owners
Sponsorship of businesses on Montana highway exit signs have doubled in cost, pricing out some small business owners.
North Dakotans can learn about resources to grow healthy habits on April 18 at Gateway to Health event | Health and Human Services North Dakota
Individuals and families are invited to the fourth annual Gateway to Health community event, which includes activities for all ages on Saturday, April 18, 10 a.m.- 4 p.m. at North Dakota’s Gateway to Science in Bismarck. Participants will enjoy free access to the science center during their registered two-hour time slot, along with access to interactive booths and exhibits promoting health and wellbeing through hands-on activities, games and prizes.
More women in politics does not always mean more gender equality
Evidence on the policy impact of female politicians is mixed. This column uses data on bills sponsored in the Italian House of Representatives between 1987 and 2022 to show how female politicians’ engagement with women’s issues is systematically related to the gender norms of the environments in which they were born. The findings suggest that while increasing the number of women in politics remains essential to broaden representation and diversify policy priorities, if social norms remain traditional, progress on gender equality may still be slow.
West Ninth Street Black business district aims to echo the past, but with a modern twist
The new Black business district blocked off part of the street, which will remain that way until Juneteenth, with the project aiming to realize the historical significance and hopeful revitalization of the area.
Borders Railway extension business case due by late 2027
It could ultimately pave the way for extending the rail line from Tweedbank to Carlisle.
So When Can We Call Wisconsin a Blue State?
The state’s Republicans are in a dire situation. Let’s keep it that way.
Evers signs bill to allow sports betting in Wisconsin
Gov. Tony Evers signed a measure into law Thursday that will pave the way for people to place bets online in Wisconsin.
Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy winning a green jacket has only made him more dangerous at Augusta National
McIlroy started slow on the first nine, but confidence allowed him to 'keep swinging' his way to the top of the Round 1 leaderboard
Treasury Wine Estates’ Elise Spangenberg named to North Bay Business Journal’s Forty Under 40
“Being part of a newer generation of leaders allows me to challenge legacy thinking, introduce modern people practices, and help organizations adapt in ways that keep them competitive and relevant.”
WATCH: Conversations on ways to improve health care in North Carolina
On Thursday, April 16 at 9:00am ET, Axios Live will host an event in Raleigh looking at the key issues shaping the health of North Carolinians.
Matrix Business Systems Builds a Better Way to Manage Print
What began as a leap from corporate to entrepreneurship is now a company redefining how organizations manage print infrastructure.
Looking for sports to watch for free? Here's a FAST way to do it
FAST stands for free ad-supported streaming television. Granted, FAST channels don’t carry the biggest games, but in a world where watching sports only gets more expensive, I refer you back to the word FREE.
Evers signs measure paving way for online sports betting in Wisconsin
Gov. Tony Evers on Thursday signed a law opening the door to legal online sports betting in Wisconsin.
A smarter way to build vaccines: Scientists harness AI to target emerging alphaviruses
A team of scientists at The University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB), led by Nikos Vasilakis, Ph.D., and Peter McCaffrey, MD, has developed a new computational pipeline that could dramatically accelerate ...
Making Friends In Politics Is Possible
I knew getting involved in politics was a great way to make enemies, but it never occurred to me until I saw it in action that it can also be a way to make friends. I’m still not very involve…
Trump admin shifts focus of Title X program away from birth control
After an unusually short application window and a delay, the administration is distributing the program's 2026 funds. Next year, a bigger change is coming.
Colorado Springs’ mayor has a new chief of staff. It’s the guy he trounced in the election.
Mayor Yemi Mobolade on Thursday named Wayne Williams his chief of staff. Williams, a Republican who is Colorado’s former secretary of state, lost to Mobolade in the 2023 mayoral election.
Health Physicists: The Quiet Experts Keeping Radiation Risks in Check
When radioactive materials are involved, whether at a former nuclear weapons site, a decommissioned reactor, or a legacy industrial facility, the goal is simple: protect workers, safeguard communities and reduce potential radiation risks to levels that are demonstrably safe. At the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), health physicists are the professionals responsible for making that happen. Their work is often behind the scenes but always with consequences that matter deeply to the public.
On a New Kids on the Block cruise, Emma Straub found a way past grief
Emma Straub, known for novels like “Modern Lovers” and “The Vacationers,” has a new book inspired by a fan cruise | K-DAWN
Maguire's Gene Jones Jr., Scott Jones named SBA South Dakota Small Business Champions
“Gene and Scott are the real deal. You can see it in the way they support our community with their time. You can also see it in the way they do business."
Entertainment this week: Red Not Chili Peppers, Spring Thaw Scavenge Hunt, and more
Friday, April 10 The Live Oaks – 7:30-10:30 p.m., Moody’s Bistro, Bar & Beats, 10007 Bridge St. The Live Oaks are an Americana-Soul band of very close friends that was started way, way back in 2016 (originally...
Michael Patrick of 'Game of Thrones' Dies at 35. Motor Neuron Disease, Explained
The actor passed away on April 7 following a three-year-long health battle.
Every way Trump has changed Washington, DC, in his second term
Trump is reshaping Washington, DC, with a $400 million White House ballroom, federal building banners, and new monument proposals.
Guitar & Pen: 575 Brewery and Alamogordo's growing entertainment scene
I always applaud when a local business does something outside their normal cup of tea. Local watering hole, 575 Brewery has stepped up and is now offering a worship service at 11 a.m. on Sunday mornings, three hours before they open for business. Everyone who knows the owners of this establishment – Bill and Vicky Arnold – know how visionary the couple is. Regardless of your views on the Lord, this is the non-denominational place to be. The five disciples of the square table at the 99th Church of Christ applaud the innovation of these two great Alamogordians.
Spotify Introduces New Video Controls for Listeners
Spotify has always been about putting listeners in the driver’s seat. Today, people don’t just want more ways to spend their time; they want that time to be well spent. That’s why, from Taste Profile to Prompted Playlist, and the expansion of managed accounts to Smart Filters, we’re giving users more control over their listening...
Rep. Seth Moulton picks: Josh Shapiro or Gavin Newsrom?
Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, who launched a primary challenge against Sen. Ed Markey to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate, answered rapid-fire questions on his decision to return money from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), his past comments about trans athletes and his stance on ICE. With the 2026 elections underway, The Post's Anna Liss-Roy is grilling candidates in races across the country, pressing Democrats and Republicans to share their takes at high-speed.
Scientists just found a hidden “drain” inside the human brain
A hidden waste-removal pathway in the brain has finally been caught in action. Using cutting-edge MRI scans, researchers discovered that fluid flows along the middle meningeal artery in a slow, lymphatic-like pattern—very different from blood. This confirms the presence of a previously unknown drainage hub in humans. The finding could transform how scientists approach brain aging, injury, and diseases like Alzheimer’s.
Sling TV Launches Sling Essentials – An Unbeatable Price for ESPN, Family Entertainment, & More
Exceptional Value: The new Sling Essentials delivers top-tier sports, family programming, and classic TV favorites for just $19.99 per month.An Unbeatable Price for ESPN: Sling Essentials offers the most cost-effective way to live stream ESPN and ESPN2.Ultimate Flexibility: Subscribers can bundle Sling Essentials with Sling Select for a comprehensive sports and entertainment combo starting at $34.99/month. ENGLEWOOD, Colo., April 09, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sling TV, the most flexible TV stream
Elissa Slotkin is testing whether winning in Trump country is a winning message for Democrats
Sen. Elissa Slotkin knows how to win in Trump country. She’s trying to show her fellow Democrats the way.
Vudu Sister explores vulnerability in a different lens With ‘Adynata’
PROVIDENCE – Art has the ability to be a powerful medium in an assortment of ways, and one of them is when the creator can channel what they’re feeling through
Judges keep knocking down weak DC gun cases brought by Jeanine Pirro’s office
The Trump White House touted its surge of National Guard members to Washington, DC, last summer as the way to put more dangerous perpetrators in the nation’s capital behind bars. But in nearly a dozen criminal cases since the surge began, people who were found to be carrying weapons and charged in federal court have walked free.
US Highway 50 Business to see closures starting April 9 in Pueblo
Parts of U.S. Highway 50 Business will be closed from April 9 through April 11. Here's what to know.
Coach Brown to be Inducted into the Arkansas Sports Hall of Fame
Conway, Ark. — The Arkansas Sports Hall of Fame will induct its 68th class on Friday, April 10, at the Oaklawn Event Center Ballroom in Hot Springs. The class features 10 standout athletes and coaches, including Nathan Brown, head football coach at the University of Central Arkansas.