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Capela Delivers Big Night - And a First Career Three
Clint Capela dominates the glass and scores a season-high, sinking his first-ever three-pointer in a career-defining performance.
Weird Stat Shows Why Yankees' Offense Might be Struggling
It's been a somewhat interesting start to the 2026 campaign for the New York Yankees. On the surface, I'm not too upset with how New York has played.
Buccaneers Draft Profile: Chris McClellan, DT, Missouri
Dive into Chris McClellan's tape. Will the Missouri defensive tackle add the missing punch to the Buccaneers' interior line?
Bethel conference highlights how ‘better science occurs’ with local knowledge at the table
Researchers and local experts gathered in Bethel in early April to share and compare environmental knowledge at the Western Alaska Interdisciplinary Science Conference, particularly across issues facing the Yukon-Kuwkoksim Delta.
Washington Nationals Announce Roster Moves After Waldichuk Injury
After some bad news was sprinkled into Sunday's win against the Brewers, securing the first sweep against the team since 2011 and first in Milwaukee since 2006, the Washington Nationals announced a flurry of moves ahead of the four game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
4 shows to see in the Coachella Valley this weekend
Mariachazo will perform on Friday at Fantasy Springs Resort Casino.
Baylor S3E hosts, places 3rd at National Collegiate Sports Sales Championship
It may just be the biggest stage in sports sales for a student. Representing their schools at an NBA or NHL arena, students step up to the table with industry professionals (who may someday be their colleagues) and make their pitch. If it feels like an NCAA competition, that’s intentional -- and it’
Trump, 79, Raises Fresh Health Concerns After Unbelievable Mix-Up
Donald Trump’s critics are pointing to one explanation for the president’s apparent mix-up of Jesus Christ and a Red Cross doctor: cognitive decline. After the president, 79, was lambasted—including b...
Delta Air Lines rolls out new business class suites in premium push
The updated suites will be introduced on the airlines’ new A350-1000 jets that will enter service in 2027.
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate
As the president threatens to wipe out Iran and attacks the pope, even some former allies and advisers are questioning whether he has grown increasingly unbalanced, describing him as “lunatic” and “clearly insane.”
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate
As the president threatens to wipe out Iran and attacks the pope, even some former allies and advisers are questioning whether he has grown increasingly unbalanced, describing him as “lunatic” and “clearly insane.”
Ethan Rii | Notable Leaders in Health Care 2026
Ethan Rii, partner in the national health care group at Ice Miller, is one of Crain's Chicago Notable Leaders in Health Care 2026.
Northwestern Medicine provides guidance for improving Black maternal health
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says more than 80% of deaths related to pregnancy are preventable, and Black women are three times more likely to die from pregnancy-related causes than white women.
Sewell pitches Medicare reimbursement bill during rural health roundtable
Bipartisan legislation would raise Medicare reimbursement rates for rural hospitals to help them stay afloat.
Gray whales are entering San Francisco Bay and many aren’t surviving
Gray whales are beginning to break their long-established migration patterns, venturing into risky new territory like San Francisco Bay as climate change disrupts their Arctic food supply. But this unexpected detour is proving deadly: nearly one in five whales that enter the Bay don’t survive, with many struck by ships in the crowded, foggy waters.
Key Test Looms for South Africa’s Coalition, New DA Leader Warns
The new leader of South Africa’s second-biggest political party expects the stability of the nation’s coalition government to be put to the test when its larger rival holds internal elections next year.
Washington Announces Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports After Talks Collapse
The war in Iran has already strained supply chains and energy markets, and the US blockade threatens to destabilize global trade flows.
Healthcare Roundtable 2026 - Orange County Business Journal
Explore insights from Orange County’s top healthcare leaders on innovation, preventive care, and the future of healthcare in this exclusive OCBJ roundtable.
Howe accepts accountability after Newcastle collapse at Crystal Palace
Newcastle United manager Eddie Howe accepted full responsibility after his side squandered another lead in a 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace on Sunday afternoon.Consequently, the Magpies have plummeted t...
Linux 7.0 Released With New Hardware Support, Optimizations & Self-Healing XFS
As expected the stable Linux 7.0 kernel was just released today in marking this next kernel release
Iowa State Fair hints at expanded entertainment lineup ahead of reveal
DES MOINES, Iowa — The Iowa State Fair is not just another summer tradition this year. It is shaping up to feel bigger, louder, and more unpredictable as it ties into the nationwide America 2…
Iowa State Fair hints at expanded entertainment lineup ahead of reveal
DES MOINES, Iowa — The Iowa State Fair is not just another summer tradition this year. It is shaping up to feel bigger, louder, and more unpredictable as it ties into the nationwide America 250 celebr...
8.8-inch OLED, Snapdragon 8 Gen 5: High-end compact tablet gets official launch date
Compact tablet enthusiasts have likely been awaiting more details regarding the Oppo Pad Mini tablet. As revealed by the company, the 8.8-inch OLED tablet powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 SoC is set to see the light of day later this month.
Downtown Evanston to offer Refresh & Renew: Health & Wellness Open House event April 25
Spend April 25 day exploring local fitness and wellness businesses in downtown Evanston — try free mini-sessions, meet owners and instructors, tour spaces
Infantino’s FIFA: Ten years of power, politics, and so-called ethics
Gianni Infantino promised reform, transparency, accountability, and a “new FIFA.” Ten years on, Infantino’s FIFA is instead defined by political proximity, weakened scrutiny, and an increasing alignment with state power at the highest levels.
Northern Poll: Ohioans prioritize political civility despite future uncertainty
Ohioans find political incivility unacceptable but differ on optimism for the future.
Arsenal target warned to avoid joining the Gunners
PSV star Ismael Saibari has long been linked with a move to Arsenal, and a transfer could materialise at the end of the current season. The Moroccan midfielder has established himself as one of the st...
Podcast provides in-depth coverage of area food, restaurant scene - Talk Business & Politics
John Engleman, a former sports anchor and director with over a decade of media relations experience, started a podcast to keep tabs on the ever-evolving food and restaurant sector in...
Chelsea 0-3 Man City: What Rosenior said
If you go down against teams as good as this, what you have to do for the next five minutes is to stay in the game. It ended up being a really, really difficult second half." On building resilience in the team: "I am accountable.
Maizie Clarke Turned Illustrations Into a Thriving Business
Maizie Clarke is transforming the way we see custom merchandise, one watercolor brushstroke at a time. 🎨✨ What began as a kitchen-table side hustle in 2016 has grown into a thriving wholesale business, providing custom illustrated tea towels, ceramics, and scarves to museum shops and distilleries across the country. 🏛️🧣
This Is The Best Tablet You Can Buy In 2026, According To Amazon User Reviews
Apple's 11th-generation 11-inch iPad on Amazon has a 4.7-star rating with over 21,322 reviews, making it one of the best-rated tablets on the site.
The War With Iran Offered a Snapshot of Trump World. It’s Not a Pretty Picture.
In a roundtable discussion, POLITICO reporters detail how the war in Iran pulled back the curtain on the Trump administration.
Charlie Crist's humanity laid bare by, wait for it, the Tampa Bay Times
Crist is shown as something he’s not often been accused of: entirely relatable.
Donald Trump's Incompetence Is Costing Him the Country: Commentary
Donald Trump has led us to chaos — war with Iran, spiking gas prices, unstable markets — that may lose him the Republican party and the nation.
Best 2-in-1 Laptops (2026): Microsoft, Lenovo, and the iPad
Whether you want a detachable tablet or a laptop screen that spins, these 2-in-1 devices manage to balance being both a tablet and a laptop.
I replaced my notes app with Gemini’s new Notebooks — and I’m not going back
I was drowning in scattered notes and tabs — this new Gemini feature finally fixed it
'We are accountable.' Meet Robert Mullen, head of Aultman Health System
In this week's Five questions with feature, meet Robert Mullen, president and CEO of Aultman Health System, the largest employer in Stark County.
After being an iPhone user for 13 years, here's why I'm finally switching to Android for good
After 13 years with an iPhone, I finally made the switch to Android — and it all came down to one simple feature.
3 diet tweaks heart health nutrition scientist made to prevent disease
How quickly and when you eat could affect your metabolic and cardiovascular health, professor Sarah Berry said.
At a mahjong table in Iowa, a struggle over which party to trust
Women courted in key races weigh their choices — and whether the president’s policies have delivered for a working-class town hit by tariffs, war and rising costs.
Green Eats healthy cafe opens in Glen Cove
The owners are bullish on vegetables and whole grains, organic wherever possible.
Finally, a Foldable That Fits: Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 Wide Leaks a Massive 4:3 Screen Upgrade
Samsung Galaxy Z Wide Fold rumor points to a 4:3 inner display; One UI animations may target tablet-like multitasking in 2026.
UFC signs Gable Steveson, announces debut date
It's seemed inevitable, but Gable Steveson is headed to the UFC.
Atlanta Braves’ Walt Weiss Shares Spencer Strider Injury Update
Spencer Strider received an important update on Saturday.
What Now? Vance Leaves Iran Talks Without a Deal.
The lack of a breakthrough after 21 hours of negotiations leaves the Trump administration facing several unpalatable options.
See How the Brewers Suffered Another Loss
The Milwaukee Brewers' skid has extended to four games, and a common theme continues to plague them.
Ballon d'Or Favorite? England, Bayern Munich Star Harry Kane Tabbed As Frontrunner
Harry Kane is currently playing at a level that few are able to match, cementing his status as the premier marksman in European football.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Chelsea Star Speaks On Exit From Manchester United
Garnacho, Chelsea Move Signals Reflection After Man United ExitThere is often a moment, quiet and uncomfortable, when a young footballer begins to understand that talent alone does not carry a career....
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Women's Six Nations 2026: England 33-12 Ireland - hosts open title defence with victory
England open title defence with comfortable win over Ireland in front of a record Women's Six Nations crowd of 77,120 at Allianz Stadium.
Orange County restaurants shut down by health inspectors (April 2-9)
There were 12 restaurants and food establishments ordered closed by Orange County inspectors from April 2 to April 9.
A 67-year-old “crazy” theory about vitamin B1 has finally been proven
Scientists have achieved the unthinkable by stabilizing a highly reactive molecule in water, confirming a decades-old theory about vitamin B1’s role in the body. The breakthrough not only solves a scientific mystery but could revolutionize greener chemical manufacturing.
These women had their breasts removed to thwart cancer. Then came the pain.
Many women are afflicted by post-mastectomy pain syndrome, which spans from uncomfortable to disabling and can last years. It’s inconsistently diagnosed and treated, leaving some women in agony as they hunt for relief and struggle to find doctors who take their pain seriously.
Elvis and tattoos? Go inside the Memphis Tattoo Festival at Graceland
Discussions of Elvis and tattoos are inevitable this weekend, as the Memphis Tattoo Festival is held at the Graceland Exhibition Center.
Contract talks planned for key defensive trio at Borussia Dortmund
Sports BILD is reporting that more concrete talks at Borussia Dortmund are planned with Gregor Kobel, Waldemar Anton and Julian Ryerson. However, the popular German tabloid does not provide any furth...
Borussia Dortmund vs Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund prepares for matchday 29 of the Bundesliga as they welcome Bayern Leverkusen to the Signal Iduna Park on Saturday afternoon.Although Dortmund remains in second position in the table ...
AC Milan vs Udinese – Match preview and team news
AC Milan and Udinese meet in a matchday 32 clash of Serie A at the San Siro on Saturday.AC Milan sits in third position at the Serie A table with 63 points from 31 matches, while Udinese are currently...
Yankees Not Making Excuses Over Brutal Offensive Showings
The New York Yankees haven't been playing the type of baseball they were expected to when entering the season over the past few days, and it's resulted in some tough losses. Offensively speaking, the Yankees only scored seven runs in the three games against the Athletics, including a shutout in the third game of the set.
Who missed the cut at the Masters? Notables sent home after Friday
The second round of the 2026 Masters is in the books and the 36-hole cut has been made. See the notable names who were sent packing Friday.
Local business owner weighs in as Louisiana blocks state minimum wage bill
For the latest session in a years-long debate, the Louisiana House Labor Committee has voted to kill a bill that would have established a $12 state minimum wage.
Women's basketball transfer portal tracker: Latest news as Audi Crooks, other big names look for new teams
We're keeping tabs on every major move with the transfer portal open in women's college basketball
Efforts to establish social media guardrails for children stall in Congress
Experts say one factor is lobbying by Big Tech, which spent over $100 million last year
Pontiac Once Ran A Super Bowl Commercial Featuring An Option That Was Cancelled Almost Immediately Because The Suits Freaked Out
Super Bowl commercials have always been a big deal, right from the beginning. You have a massive captive audience, suitable primed on beer and nachos to be as suggestible as possible. That’s why carmakers have always been some of the most eager purchasers of Super Bowl ad time, and why they’ve tended to use it […]
A New Case Exposed the Clever Workaround the FBI Uses to Read 'Secure' Messages on iPhones
Law enforcement used Apple's push notifications database to gather messages sent through Signal, and convict defendants for terrorism activities.
Advancing equity for Black mothers through better nutrition
Discover how better nutrition, cultural support and community action can improve Black maternal health and reduce preventable pregnancy risks.
Microsoft makes it easier for Windows Insider testers to get new features
Windows Insider builds remain confusing, but they should be more predictable.
80 Years of Excellence: 49ers Launch Reimagined Mobile App
Sourdough Sam AI guides fans through a redesigned app, offering personalized stats and stadium info. Celebrate 80 years with this groundbreaking digital experience.
Science finds surprising link between your martial status and risk of cancer
Married people tend to have greater financial stability and stronger social support, which can help them maintain healthier habits and get medical care earlier, researchers noted
Science finds surprising link between your martial status and risk of cancer
Married people tend to have greater financial stability and stronger social support, which can help them maintain healthier habits and get medical care earlier, researchers noted
Construction Business Taking a Hit From Iran Conflict
Rising prices for fuel and materials such as aluminum push up costs just as they were stabilizing. ‘This war just trashed that.’
TXST to lead statewide academy strengthening financial stability of rural Texas hospitals
Texas State leads a statewide academy to strengthen the financial stability and leadership of rural Texas hospitals, helping prevent closures and protect healthcare access.
New iPhone Fold leaks cover ‘Ultra’ name, launch timing, more
iPhone Fold rumors keep coming, and today new posts from notable leakers cover the ‘iPhone Ultra’ name, launch timing, and more.
Trump’s Pakistan gamble: Can talks produce peace?
Iran will approach these meetings pretending it’s the power at the table. That’s what they do. But the boastfulness conceals a country that has just been hammered militarily, in shambles economically, and without the support of its own people.
Michigan Health & Hospital Association Establishes MHA Center of Rural Excellence
The MHA Center of Rural Excellence formalizes and strengthens the collective voice of rural hospitals.
Unique X, Imagica Entertainment Media Services Partner to Transform Japanese Cinema Advertising Business
Digital cinema software provider Unique X and Imagica Entertainment Media Services (Imagica EMS), the market leader in Japan for post-production and media services, today announced the signing of a full long-term agreement, building upon their original Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This strategic partnership establishes a robust framework for an exclusive collaboration aimed at transforming and […]
Two Carolina juniors named 2026 Goldwater scholars - College of Arts and Sciences
Anish Aradhey and Paul Hamrick, both juniors at Carolina, were selected for the prestigious Barry Goldwater scholarship. Established by Congress in 1986, the scholarship is designed to identify and support the next generation of research scientists.
Scientists think dark matter might come in two forms
A mysterious glow of gamma rays at the center of the Milky Way has long hinted at dark matter, but the lack of similar signals in smaller dwarf galaxies has cast doubt on that idea. Now, researchers propose a bold twist: dark matter might not be a single particle at all, but a mix of two different types that must interact with each other to produce detectable signals.
Gravitational waves may be hidden in the light atoms emit
Scientists have proposed a surprising new way to detect gravitational waves—by observing how they change the light emitted by atoms. These waves can subtly shift photon frequencies in different directions, leaving behind a detectable signature. The effect doesn’t change how much light atoms emit, which is why it’s gone unnoticed until now. If confirmed, this approach could lead to ultra-compact detectors using cold-atom systems.
CT health organization receives largest charitable gift in its history. The plan for $5.4 million.
Middlesex Health recently announced “the largest single charitable gift” the organization has received to date, according to a statement.
WhatsApp is bringing Status updates to the top of the Chats tab
The new WhatsApp build on TestFlight includes references to an upcoming change that will bring Status updates to the Chats tab.
Slotkin talks to Ohio voters amid questions about her national ambitions
Elissa Slotkin's national tour of states Trump won in 2024 has included Iowa and Ohio this week, two states pivotal to capturing the White House.
Possible presidential candidate rallies Dems in Cincinnati with Pureval
Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin and Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval discussed broadening the Democratic Party's appeal in the Midwest.
How to fix the UN Decade of Ocean Science
In a previous post an uncomfortable reality was highlighted: that the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030) has, so far, delivered more branding than transformati…
FBI used iPhone notification data to retrieve deleted Signal messages
The FBI was able to recover deleted Signal messages from an iPhone by extracting data stored in the device’s notification database.
Healthy Petaluma’s Ben Spierings named to North Bay Business Journal’s Forty Under 40
“The scale of need often far exceeds the capacity of local funders, and the idea of shifting the responsibility entirely to philanthropy is neither sustainable nor equitable.”
Top health officials highlight efforts to make medical records more portable
Health tech companies are working to make medical records more portable, but so far, the effort is voluntary.
Summit State Bank’s Ken Wu named to North Bay Business Journal’s Forty Under 40 of 2026
“He was promoted into management because of his ability to guide others without ego, foster an environment of trust and accountability, and encourage learning and cross-training throughout the department.”
Oppo Find X9 Ultra full specifications, images emerge via premature listing
The Oppo Find X9 Ultra is expected to go official on April 21 across multiple markets, including China. Ahead of the launch, the device briefly appeared on China Telecom’s database. While the listing has now been removed, it revealed several key specifications and design details, as seen in screenshots circulating online. Oppo Find X9 Ultra […]
A record-breaking field: What to expect from Peru’s presidential election?
Crime and corruption are top issues for voters as the country struggles to cope with persistent political instability.
Off the Grid maker and Game Informer owner Gunzilla Games accused of missing staff salary payments
Current and former staff question the company's stability, alleging months of payroll problems
Leaker gives iPhone 18 Pro updates on two design changes
It’s been a big week for iPhone Fold rumors, but a reputable leaker just posted iPhone 18 Pro updates related to two potential design changes.
Dyson just released its 1st handheld fan in time for the summer heat
The first portable fan from premium brand Dyson costs less than $100.
FBI Extracts Suspect’s Deleted Signal Messages Saved in iPhone Notification Database
The case was the first time authorities charged people for alleged “Antifa” activities after President Trump designated the umbrella term a terrorist organization.
Guitar & Pen: 575 Brewery and Alamogordo's growing entertainment scene
I always applaud when a local business does something outside their normal cup of tea. Local watering hole, 575 Brewery has stepped up and is now offering a worship service at 11 a.m. on Sunday mornings, three hours before they open for business. Everyone who knows the owners of this establishment – Bill and Vicky Arnold – know how visionary the couple is. Regardless of your views on the Lord, this is the non-denominational place to be. The five disciples of the square table at the 99th Church of Christ applaud the innovation of these two great Alamogordians.
Experts set 2030 nutrition science goals for resilient food systems
As the second quarter of the 21st century unfolds, experts are examining the state of nutrition as the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) deadline looms with five years remaining. To achieve these targets, a new paper outlines key goals for nutrition science from 2025 to 2030. The Frontiers in Nutrition publication discusses the interconnectedness between nutrition, food security, and sustainability in complex food systems affected by shocks, policies, and environmental limits. The researchers reveal how these modern factors impact nutrition science and shape research agendas.
How Colorado Prioritizes Public Health Data Modernization
The Pew Charitable Trusts recently spoke to Colorado’s Department of Public Health and Environment’s (CDPHE’s) state epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy and COVID-19 surveillance program manager Alicia Cronquist, MPH, about how updates to the state’s public health data reporting policies will help the agency’s efforts to protect Coloradans from communicable diseases, such as flu, salmonella, measles, and HIV.
Sling TV Launches Sling Essentials – An Unbeatable Price for ESPN, Family Entertainment, & More
Exceptional Value: The new Sling Essentials delivers top-tier sports, family programming, and classic TV favorites for just $19.99 per month.An Unbeatable Price for ESPN: Sling Essentials offers the most cost-effective way to live stream ESPN and ESPN2.Ultimate Flexibility: Subscribers can bundle Sling Essentials with Sling Select for a comprehensive sports and entertainment combo starting at $34.99/month. ENGLEWOOD, Colo., April 09, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sling TV, the most flexible TV stream
6 science-backed exercises that may help people with Parkinson’s
Exercise may offer a benefit that pills, tablets and patches can’t replicate.