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New study suggests coffee supports gut health and mood
Key Takeaways:Coffee might support both gut health and mood, with recent study participants showing lower stress, depression, and more beneficial gut bacteria.OSF gastroenterologist Omar Khokhar says effects vary by individual and coffee type, and the study only shows a correlation, not proof of cause.Moderation and personal tolerance matter mos...
Entertainment around the area
The Wallflowers, marking the 30th anniversary of sophomore album “Bringing Down the Horse,” leads the entertainment highlights coming to local and regional venues over the next couple of weeks. The gr...
Brain scans reveal 3 ADHD subtypes, including a more extreme form
A study analyzing 1,154 children and adolescents breaks new ground in how to think about the growing diagnosis.
Scientists reveal the best exercise for knee arthritis pain relief
A major review of 217 trials shows that aerobic exercise is the most effective option for managing knee osteoarthritis. Activities like walking, cycling, and swimming outperformed other exercise types in reducing pain and improving movement. While alternatives like strength training and mind-body exercises help, they are best used alongside aerobic workouts. The findings also confirm that exercise is a safe and essential part of treatment.
Mount Etna is like no other volcano on Earth, representing 'a new type of volcanism,' new research reveals
Mount Etna's strange lava has long perplexed scientists, but new research reveals that the volcano formed in a bizarre way — making it unlike any other known volcano on Earth.
Arkansas Health Insurance Marketplace Data Show Changes in Enrollment, Plan Selection, Premiums
New data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services show that marketplace plan enrollment in Arkansas decreased by 3.8% in the 2026 open enrollment period compared to 2025, but there was a shift in the types of plans selected and a notable increase in average plan premiums.
Skidmore College Athletics honors student-athletes at annual Sports Recognition Night
The Skidmore College Athletic Department hosted its annual Sports Recognition night on Monday, honoring the school's top student-athletes. It was the 44th version of the event, started in 1983.
Minai Named College Sports Communicators Academic All-America
ALL-TIME WASHU ACADEMIC ALL-AMERICANS
My first 32er mountain bike test ride suggests the hype is outrunning the tech. But not for long.
My first 32er test ride felt great. Still, the big-wheel bikes aren't perfect and won't be for everyone.
Nadiyah Byard, A Two Sport Standout
Augusta, Ga. - Most collegiate student-athletes grew up playing multiple sports. Many times it wouldn't be until late in their high school career they decided which sport to focus all their attention to. In college, other than runners in cross country and track, very few do more than one sport. For Augusta University's Nadiyah Byard, she not only competed in basketball for the Jaguars, but is focusing on the high jump for the Jaguars.
Damon Wayans reveals the scary symptom that led to his type 2 diabetes diagnosis
Damon Wayans details his type 2 diabetes journey, the symptoms that alarmed him and his new partnership to raise awareness for the diabetic eye disease DME.
Dementia risk rises with common food type millions eat every day, study suggests
A new study from Australia links ultraprocessed food consumption to lower attention scores and higher dementia risk, even among those who follow otherwise healthy diets.
White earns third team Academic All-America honor from College Sports Communicators
WALTHAM, Mass. – Bentley's Taylor White was named a third team Academic All-America by the College Sports Communicators for women's swimming and diving.
Marcus Williams Promoted to Associate Athletic Director for Sports Performance
LOWELL, Mass. – UMass Lowell Director of Athletics Lynn Coutts recently announced the promotion of Marcus Williams to Associate Athletic Director of Sports Performance.
20th Anniversary iPhone's 'Liquid Glass' Display to Make Bezels Vanish
Apple's 20th-anniversary iPhone will use a new type of curved screen technology that more effectively hides the display bezels from the user's line of sight for a purer viewing experience, claims a Chinese leaker. Apple is reportedly planning a radical redesign for the 20th-anniversary iPhone that could feature a display that curves around all four edges of the device.
A global survey on trust, digital health literacy and health information quality
Nature Health - An online cross-sectional survey across 30 countries, including 31,000 adults, explores perceptions of quality health information, with respect to source type and inclusion of...
Some fungi can influence the weather — and now we know how they do it
Some types of fungi borrowed a gene from ancient bacteria that gave the ability to make ice and trigger rain.
Women's Flag Football Added as 26th Varsity Sport at John Carroll
The tradition of football at John Carroll University has just deepened. Since 1920, John Carroll Football has been a prestigious powerhouse at JCU. Beyond plenty of success on the field, JCU Football has consistently graduated excellent men who have set the world on fire. Beginning with the 2026-27 academic year, women will have the opportunity to add to the rich history of football in University Heights.
Baseball Walks Off Twice For Sweep of George Mason
Bronx, N.Y. – (April 26, 2026) – It's rare to see a walk-off win, but to see two in a doubleheader is special day. That is exactly what happened on Sunday at Houlihan Park, as the Fordham Rams posted walk-off wins in both ends of a doubleheader to sweep a three-game series from the George Mason Patriots by scores of 2-1 in seven innings and 5-4 in 12 innings.
Square Enix has thought about making a single-player Final Fantasy 14
According to Fantasy 14 director and producer Naoki ‘Yoshi-P’ Yoshida, Square Enix has thought about making a single-player game set in the same world. Yoshida made the remarks during a press event. He was asked about the possibility of creating a different type of game that would be single-player that potentially follows side characters or a different period of time....
Aggressive “hulk” lizards are wiping out millions of years of evolution
For ages, wall lizards coexisted in three distinct color types, each with its own strategy for survival. Now, a powerful green variant is taking over. These dominant “Hulk” lizards are outcompeting the others, causing yellow and orange morphs to vanish. It’s a dramatic reminder that evolution can flip the script much faster than expected.
A Simple Sugar in Ultra-Processed Foods May Drive Obesity, Metabolic Disease
Recent research shows that fructose in ultra-processed foods may drive disease, like metabolic syndrome, which includes obesity. Reducing your intake of this type of simple sugar could help lower the associated health risks.
14th annual Southwest Colorado Small Business Conference coming to Ignacio in May
The 14th annual Southwest Colorado Small Business Conference promises to supply “practical strategies, fresh ideas, and valuable connections” for attendees from all industries. The conference, which ...
A New Type of Neuroplasticity Rewires the Brain After a Single Experience
“Neurons that fire together, wire together” is not the full story. A novel mechanism explains how the brain can learn across longer timescales.
How NCAA Career in Sports Forum helped Harding’s Hudson Vaughn clarify his mission
Harding student-athlete Hudson Vaughn's journey has been defined by turning adversity into achievement, using challenges as a catalyst and character as the foundation for leadership and innovation.
Best of the Best: Duke’s Legacy in the Collegiate Women Sports Awards
DURHAM, N.C.-- Women's sports have never had a bigger stage. Audiences are growing, athletes are becoming household names and the conversation around female ...
CBS Sports Network to Broadcast Navy vs. Loyola Game Friday Night Under the Lights
After spending the last two weekends on the road, Navy (7-6, 3-4 Patriot League) returns home to play host to Loyola (8-5, 5-2 Patriot League) on Friday evening in its regular-season finale. Faceoff is slated for 7:06 pm at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium and the game is presented by First Command. Navy is led by Joe Amplo, who has put together a 50-39 record in his 7 seasons at the helm of the Mids' program, while Loyola's Charley Toomey has posted a 195-117 record in 21 seasons as the Greyhounds' head coach. The contest marks the 22nd meeting in a series that dates back to 1939. Friday's contest will be televised by CBS Sports Network with Chris Lewis and Evan Washburn calling the action. Additionally, the game will be carried live on 1430 WNAV with Joe Miller on the call. Radio coverage begins at 6:45 pm with the Navy Lacrosse Pregame Show. Live stats will also be available on NavySports.com(.)
For the first time, scientists pinpoint the brain cells behind depression
Scientists have identified two specific types of brain cells that behave differently in people with depression, offering a clearer picture of what is happening inside the brain. By analyzing donated brain tissue with advanced genetic tools, the researchers found changes in neurons linked to mood and stress, as well as in immune-related microglia cells. These differences point to disruptions in key brain systems and reinforce that depression is rooted in biology, not just emotions.
'We played the right type of game'
Birmingham City boss Chris Davies tells BBC WM he was thoroughly happy with his side's performance in Wednesday's 2-1 win over Preston.
Prince George’s Co. will charge new fees — but only on certain types of businesses
The Prince George’s County Council in Maryland just passed a bill that levies new fees on only certain businesses that operate there.
Not all screen time is created equal, so what are the best and worst types?
Soil that powers devices: Scientists create battery-free electricity from dirt
Science News: The researchers have developed a new type of microbial fuel cell (MFC) that provides a reliable and constant source of electricity generated by soil-d.
Shirley in Top Four for Arthur Ashe Jr. Sports Scholars Award - NC State University Athletics
Defensive tackle Isaiah Shirley continues to move up in the selection process for the 2026 Arthur Ashe Jr Sports Scholars Award.
Scientists discover skincare compound that kills drug-resistant bacteria
A popular Korean skincare ingredient may be far more powerful than anyone realized. Scientists have discovered that madecassic acid—derived from the herb Centella asiatica—can stop antibiotic-resistant bacteria in their tracks, including dangerous strains of E. coli. By targeting a bacterial protein that humans don’t have, the compound disrupts the microbes’ ability to survive, making it a promising new type of antibiotic.
New Online Tool to Help People Find Naloxone Launched by the Wyoming Department of Health - Wyoming Department of Health
The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) is excited to announce the Community Naloxone Resource Map. This new online tool makes it easier for people to find naloxone at no cost in their local communities. Naloxone, often known by the brand name Narcan®, is a life-saving drug that reverses the effects of an opioid overdose. Given […]
SRAM Quietly Releases Eagle S-Series Drivetrains That Are Not T-Type
A Half Mount UDH Plate adds protection to non T-Type derailleurs
Is stevia actually healthy? What to know when cutting back on sugar
Research has shown diets high in added sugar can be linked to several health issues, including obesity, Type 2 diabetes and fatty liver disease.
Column | Just 2 minutes a day of this type of exercise may help you live longer
Getting older doesn’t have to mean slowing down. In fact, turning up the intensity, even very briefly, can transform long-term health and improve longevity.
Baseball Falls in Series Finale at Jax State
JACKSONVILLE, Ala. – FIU's baseball program fell 7-2 to Jacksonville State in the series finale Sunday afternoon at Rudy Abbott Field at Jim Case Stadium in Conference USA (CUSA) play.
Scientists say this type of olive oil could boost brain power
Extra virgin olive oil might help protect your brain by working through your gut. A two-year study found that people who consumed it had better cognitive performance and more diverse gut bacteria than those using refined olive oil. Researchers even identified specific microbes linked to these benefits. The findings suggest that choosing high-quality olive oil could be a simple way to support brain health as you age.
Sugg Inducted into Chesterfield Sports Hall of Fame - University of Richmond Athletics
Chesterfield, Va.— University of Richmond Deputy Athletics Director LaRee Sugg was one of four individuals inducted into the Chesterfield County Sports Hall ...
Eastern Michigan To Add Women’s Flag Football In 2027
Eastern Michigan University announced today, April 16, the addition of women's flag football as an intercollegiate varsity sport, expanding its commitment to growth and opportunity within the Department of Athletics. The announcement follows the NCAA's January 2026 designation of women's flag football as an Emerging Sport for Women.
Samuel Tremblay named Outstanding Graduating International Student for the Maine Business School
ORONO, Maine -- Samuel Tremblay of Quebec City is the Outstanding Graduating International Student for the Maine Business School. A business administration student majoring in management, Tremblay is a tutor, mentor, Maine Business School ambassador and president of the UMaine chapter of the Beta Gamma Sigma honor society.
Drug-resistant bacteria causing bloody diarrhea is growing threat
Here's a look at how to prevent drug-resistant shigella, a type of bacteria that causes shigellosis, a diarrheal infection.
New Online Tool to Help People Find Naloxone Launched by the Wyoming Department of Health - Wyoming Department of Health
The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) is excited to announce the Community Naloxone Resource Map. This new online tool makes it easier for people to find naloxone at no cost in their local communities. Naloxone, often known by the brand name Narcan®, is a life-saving drug that reverses the effects of an opioid overdose. Given […]
Weekend Entertainment | Another Success for Kayla Boye
Kayla Boye – who hails from the Mahoning Valley – has developed her own type of specialty stage production, and she excels at it.
Former Southeast Missouri Softball Coach Lana Richmond and Sports Information Director Ron Hines Elected to OVC Hall of Fame
BRENTWOOD, Tenn. – Former Southeast Missouri sports information director Ron Hines (posthumously) and softball coach Lana Richmond and former UT Martin tennis coach Dennis Taylor have been elected to the Ohio Valley Conference Hall of Fame.
Cancer
WHO fact sheet on cancer providing information on the health burden of different types of cancer, causes, risk factors, prevention, early diagnosis, treatment, palliative care, and WHO's work in this area.
Iowa State Adds Women's Wrestling As 18th Varsity Program
AMES, Iowa - Women's wrestling will debut as Iowa State University's 18 th intercollegiate athletics program during the 2027-28 academic year, Endowed Cyclon...
Lehigh Sports Central: Men's Tennis
On the latest episode of Lehigh Sports Central, men's tennis senior Jackson Morash and 5th year Sean Jaeger preview this Saturday's Senior Day matchup agains...
Gina Procaccio to be Inducted to the Philadelphia Sports Hall of Fame
PHILADELPHIA—Villanova women's track & field and cross country head coach Gina Procaccio earned a top honor on Thursday morning when she was announced as part of the 23rd inductee class to the Philadelphia Sports Hall of Fame. Procaccio will be recognized along with other top athletes, coaches, contributors, and teams whose legacies have shaped the rich history of Philadelphia sports when the 2026 Inductee Class is celebrated on Thursday, November 5, 2026, at Live! Casino & Hotel Event Center. The public is invited to join in honoring these remarkable individuals and teams.
Brown Athletics and Recreation Becomes Enterprise Member of Women Leaders in Sports
PROVIDENCE, R.I. - Brown University's Division of Athletics and Recreation will become an Enterprise Member of Women Leaders in Sports, Mencoff Vice Presiden...
NCCU’s Rodrigo Alves Named Arthur Ashe Jr. Sports Scholar Finalist
FAIRFAX, Va. – Rodrigo Alves of the North Carolina Central men's tennis team has been named a finalist for the 2026 Arthur Ashe Jr. Male Sports Scholar of the Year, as announced by the EDU Ledger. A special edition highlighting the honorees will be published this summer.
Shirley Named Arthur Ashe Jr. Sports Scholars Finalist - NC State University Athletics
Wolfpack defensive tackle Isaiah Shirley has been named one of the 10 male finalists for the 2026 Arthur Ashe Jr. Sports Scholar Award. The redshirt junior w...
One type of exercise can cut your risk of developing 8 diseases
Whether you’re hauling groceries or swimming faster laps, the amount of vigorous exercise you get matters and can slash your risk of developing eight diseases.
Taute and Cooch Named to College Sports Communicators Academic All-America® Teams
Juniors Ada Taute and Abby Cooch of the Denison University women's basketball National Championship team have been named as Second and Third-Team Academic All-America® as selected by College Sports Communicators for the 2025-26 season.
After his own diagnosis, New Orleans Broadway star starts foundation for children with Type 1 diabetes
Kyle Banks was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes during his Broadway tour of Disney's The Lion King after months of struggling with symptoms. Now, the New Orleans native wants to give back to his roots by providing resources for Louisiana children and families living with the disease.
Windows 11 Speeds Up Storage, Lifts 32GB FAT32 Limit After 3 Decades
This should help storage management feel faster and more user-friendly.
‘Marathon’ Testing A Battle Royale-ish Mode, An Offering To Casuals
Marathon is attempting to extend a hand to casuals by putting all players on the same page for a battle royale type mode where everyone starts on equal footing.
GoPro Mission 1 Pro: 8Kp60 Video, 50MP Photos, 10-Bit Log, 5+ Hour Battery
The GoPro Mission 1 Pro features a Type 1 sensor, up to 8Kp60 video capture (along with 8K Open Gate), and 50 megapixel photo capability.
Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins Named College Sports Communicators Academic All-Americans - St. John's University Athletics
QUEENS, N.Y.- St. John's men's basketball student-athletes Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins have been named to the College Sports Communicators (CSC) All-Ameri...
ECU Athletics Extends Partnership with adidas, Taps BSN SPORTS as Official Distributor - East Carolina University Athletics
GREENVILLE, N.C. – East Carolina Athletics has officially signed a multi-year extension with adidas, ensuring the global sportswear leader remains the offici...
Mocs, adidas Renew Partnership Through BSN SPORTS
The Chattanooga Mocs and adidas are extending a successful collaboration with new features that positively impact the athletics programs, University and Chattanooga community.
Diabetes testing included in free Healthy Heart Project by Henry Ford Health
It's just a little finger poke, a drop of blood and just like that, you can learn if you're at risk for type 2 diabetes which can be doing slow, subtle damage in your body for years unnoticed.
Former K-State Athletes Barratti, Leeper Named to KSHOF Class of 2026 - Kansas State University Athletics
In an announcement by the State of Kansas Sports Hall of Fame, former K-State standouts Bob Barratti (track and field) and Nathan Leeper (track and field) wi...
iPhone 18 Pro Deep Red Color Likely as Android Rivals Prep Same Shade
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 Pro is very likely to come in a new deep red color, claims a Chinese leaker, because the color is already being prototyped by Android phone makers. In February, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported that Apple is testing a deep red finish for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Rumors of purple and brown finishes have also circulated, but Gurman believes those are just variants of the same red idea.
FDA accepts previously rejected application for new PET imaging agent
The radiopharma firm hopes to soon begin selling Pixclara (Floretyrosine F 18), an investigational product for glioma, a type of brain cancer.
Ska Brewing sale breathes new life into 30-year-old business
Ska Brewing Co. in Durango has survived more than 30 years of shifting economic landscapes, a pandemic, a multiyear decline for craft breweries on the whole and a recent change of ownership after deca...
FULL SHOW: Inside INdiana Business 4/12/26
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China, Iran weaponized the global economy to beat the U.S. at its own game
Washington once enjoyed a near monopoly over this type of economic warfare, but now American consumers and companies are starting to feel the pain.
New clinic brings at-home health care to La Plata, San Juan counties
HERMOSA – The practice of a doctor traveling to a patient’s home to deliver care – as opposed to the patient traveling to a medical campus or visiting a doctor in an office – is largely bygone. Accord...
Late-Inning Pushes Lift Shenandoah Past Lynchburg in Doubleheader Sweep
The University of Lynchburg softball team dropped both ends of an ODAC doubleheader against Shenandoah on Friday at Moon Field, falling 11-7 in game one and 6-5 in game two.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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Early Punch-Out prototype surfaces, ROM shared online
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Lehigh Set to Take on Colgate in Hamilton NY on CBS Sports Network
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Navy Sports Information Office Named one of the 11 Best SID Offices in the Country for the Ninth Time and for the Seventh Time in the Last Eight Years
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Leaders Across Sports, Business and Higher Education Affirm the Value of Academics in College Football
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Leaders Across Sports, Business and Higher Education Affirm the Value of Academics in College Football
IRVING, Texas (April 9, 2026) – As the National Football Foundation marks 20 years of the NFF Hampshire Honor Society and a record-setting 2026 class, leaders from the highest levels of sports, business and higher education are praising the organization's role in elevating academic achievement as a core part of the game. Their perspectives reinforce the Foundation's long-standing commitment to ensuring education remains central to the student-athlete experience.
Coach Brown to be Inducted into the Arkansas Sports Hall of Fame
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'No one knows what they are': Researchers discover new type of cell that's seen only during pregnancy
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