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Top entertainment headlines on Wednesday, July 29 with Studio 13 Live
Mireya Garcia dives into the top entertainment headlines for Wednesday, July 29 on Studio 13 Live—From a new documentary exposing Jared Leto's sexual harassment allegations to updates on box office performances and celebrity engagements.
Opinion: Data disruptions put powerful maternal and child health tool at risk | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
The consequences of disruptions to the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System are falling heaviest on already-vulnerable populations.
Fauci to face Republican questions over Covid pandemic origins
Veteran medical adviser likely to face questions over disputed ‘lab leak’ theory in investigation seen by scientists as ‘vilification and harassment’ of 85-year-old
The Science Behind the AI Panic Is Shakier Than You Think
A column by Sascha Lobo Is AI making us dumb? So asked DER SPIEGEL on its cover a while ago. After a few weeks of recovery and a therapeutic intervention with the help of my AI, I feel able to respond. That’s a bit unfair, of course; the article itself is more nuanced than the loud cover, the image of a schoolkid with dull prompt questions, or the subtitle: “AI is conquering the schools, and educators fear a disaster.” The short answer to “Is AI making us dumb?” is: no. The long answer is more interesting, and even carries a preliminary glimmer of the spectacular. Unfortunately, it requires a detour into the sphere of artificial intelligence, into the mogul-field terrain of technology assessment, the attention economy, and the destructive virus of cultural pessimism. Along with narrowing the scope to AI’s effects on education and work rather than on intelligence. Because the honest version of the question would be: Does AI help us learn and work, or not? Generative AI, which set off the still-ongoing hype with ChatGPT, has only existed in relevant distribution since late 2022, early 2023. For a technology-driven transformation of people and society, that is extremely short. For that reason alone, research is still in its infancy. And technology assessment is not a fast discipline anyway. Prominent voices from Elizabeth Eisenstein to RAND to Tom Wheeler say we still cannot conclusively judge the consequences of the printing press. Its invention is a mere 580 years back, and some scholars would rather not circulate assessments that might have to be retracted in two or three hundred years. We’re Going Through Growing Pains A phenomenon that already caused upheaval in social media research makes serious assessment of AI’s consequences even harder: the “moving target” problem of LLM-ology, as the linguist Sean Trott called it in 2025. AI develops so quickly and so unpredictably that researchers often end up studying snapshots of the past. There are concepts, from morphological analysis to anticipatory governance, for keeping research, planning, and regulation halfway meaningful anyway. But even with those, universally valid statements are rare. DER SPIEGEL - The German View is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe We should therefore treat findings about the interplay between humans and AI as far more procedural and situational. Unfortunately, this challenge comes at the worst possible time. We are going through growing pains: AI’s everyday impact has grown very large very fast, and with it the longing for guidance. Annoyingly, the body of solid knowledge has not exploded along with it. Experts cannot be moved to broad consensus on even banal statements about AI. Sascha Lobo, born in 1975, is an author and strategy consultant focusing on the internet and digital technologies. Together with Jule Lobo, he explores the debates of the day in the podcast “Feel the News – Was Deutschland bewegt” (”What Moves Germany”). Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says software developers are dying out. Bill Gates considers coders one of only three professions that will survive the AI tsunami. Top tech economists find virtually irrefutable arguments both for and against an AI bubble. The same naturally applies to the structurally youth-hostile debate over whether AI is good or bad for young people. The gap between the demand for insight and the supply of solid knowledge creates an orientation vacuum. This vacuum of AI cluelessness is filled, as the attention economy described by Georg Franck in 1998 would have it, with half-knowledge (funnily enough, often AI-generated), marketing, and self-marketing. After all, infinite money is at stake, along with academia’s best current shot at global fame. But this iridescent froth of interpretation operates more by the algorithmic principles of the digital public sphere than by seriously earned insight. That is why dramatized, fear-feeding claims about AI are so promising. It tempts parts of academia into distorted drivel, and parts of the media then sensationalize the published drivel once more. Was the Research Aimed at a Desired Result? How badly this can influence academia and public perception is demonstrated by one of the most-discussed studies on AI’s effects: “Your Brain on ChatGPT.” The MIT study by Nataliya Kosmyna also gets plenty of space in the SPIEGEL cover story. What was measured and interpreted: lower brain activity in people who write with AI assistance, compared to people who only google or write without any tools. As is common with preprints, the study has not yet been peer-reviewed, and it contains substantial weaknesses that experts have sharply criticized. The first round had 54 participants in three groups, the second only 18, who reportedly also came from MIT’s own orbit. There was no preregistration (committing in advance to what you want to find out with which data). In their analysis, Stanković et al. even discovered an opposite effect that the study does not further explain. Some measurement data has not (yet) been published. And the EEG analysis method used is considered too imprecise to support such far-reaching conclusions. The biggest criticism, though, is the suspicion of an activism-driven study. In an interview with Time, lead author Kosmyna said she published the study immediately, rather than after full peer review, because she feared politicians might otherwise decide to put ChatGPT in kindergartens. She considers that absolutely harmful. It is legitimate to hold such a view. It just seems unscientific to approach a study with it, and then to design the setup so that the chance of a fitting desired result remains as high as possible. Ideologies Collide It is not easy to separate genuine AI insights from studies that trivialize and weaken well-founded AI criticism. The same goes for the opposing, AI-enthusiastic narratives, because the pro-AI side works against it with billions in resources. Ideologies collide, fed by egos, PR strategies, moral posturing, and once-in-a-lifetime opportunities. Doomsday marketing makes the search even harder: AI companies can profit from warnings about the dangers of AI, whether through the notoriety of apocalypse narratives or because, in some target groups, danger translates into power. Some seemingly negative findings are therefore quite welcome in the AI industry. If you try to get at the findings presumably less influenced by interest groups, the picture in education seems relatively clear: AI can improve educational outcomes when the right AI is used the right way, namely pedagogically. Simply dumping an AI chatbot into a classroom, by contrast, accomplishes little. Huge surprise. But something else is also obvious: whether they are allowed to or not, kids use AI for school, which is why the controlled integration of AI tools into education is, in the medium term, entirely without alternative. In the world of work, the landscape of findings is more complex and requires more differentiation. A series of serious studies points to an AI effect that suits neither the alarmists, regulation fetishists, and AI opponents, nor the trillion-dollar corporations with their armada of paid scientists, PR professionals, and ecosystems: working with AI helps the inexperienced (at least for now) considerably more than it helps the pros, in certain fields of work, and provided they know how to use it correctly. Missing Domain Knowledge Among the experienced, the professionals, and the high flyers, by contrast, despite frequent time savings, partially negative effects and new problems are emerging. Take the jagged frontier problem: AI solves task A brilliantly and fails completely at task B, even though both look similar even to professionals. Or the verification-cost problem, in which AI’s greater productivity gets eaten up by the enormous effort of checking its output. Or the illusion of competence, because AI makes new domains seem easily penetrable, until you painfully discover that deep domain knowledge is missing. Taken as a whole, the effects of working with AI do lean positive. But the promise that AI works as a turbocharger for everyone and boosts practically everything simply refuses to materialize. The AI magic the world has been feeling since ChatGPT arrived in late 2022 has so far barely shown up in most companies’ numbers. The consulting firm McKinsey has coined a term for this, the “gen AI paradox,” and believes that work processes and corporate structures would have to be rebuilt quite fundamentally to realize AI’s benefits at scale. Reuters just reported that only 3.3 percent of Microsoft’s customers have subscribed to the AI package Copilot. That may be down to the product; in other areas we continue to see soaring successes and new AI triumphs. But after the first quarter of 2026, disillusionment is the word for all too many AI projects at traditional companies: because the promised revolution of AI agents has so far failed to arrive or been postponed, and because of the leveling effect that many of the studies cited here suggest. Against Inequality The societal effects, on the other hand, appear rather encouraging. Many previous technologies operated on the Matthew principle, named for the Gospel verse about giving to those who already have: they tended to reward the more competent and more privileged. AI, however, seems more often to have an equalizing effect once a threshold of access and education is crossed. Some anecdotal insights point in this direction, for example, how an unemployed man in Leipzig successfully defended himself in court in 2025 against fraud accusations from Germany’s federal employment agency — without a lawyer, armed only with ChatGPT. The AI made mistakes and cited invented court rulings, but in the end the man walked away unpunished. And a key capability of artificial intelligence is its capacity to learn: set up correctly and fed with data, it can keep getting better. It is a question of time, or more precisely of AI innovations and training data, until even free AI chatbots write better legal briefs than law graduates with perfect exam scores. Whether that will make anyone dumb is something the world’s press will surely inform us of in due time. Subscribe Leave a comment
Cyclospora Boosts Fears That Deadlier Foodborne Outbreaks Are Ahead
By Kate Wells and Stephanie Armour | KFF Health News The next foodborne illness outbreak could be much worse. That’s the concern of food safety leaders across the U.S. who are raising alarms over federal cuts they say have made it harder to detect and stop the spread of foodborne illnesses, such as ...
Survey results to shape Brown County health priorities and future improvement plan
The survey is confidential, and open to anyone in Brown County—age 18 and over—until the end of September, in print or online.
MCAP data: View 2026 standardized test results for Maryland, schools, districts
View new and historical Maryland Comprehensive Assessment Program data for individual schools, districts and the state as a whole and 2026’s statewide achievement gaps.
Meredith Poll Assesses Public Opinion on Legalized Sports Betting
A Meredith Poll conducted in July 2026 provides one of the first comprehensive statewide assessments of public opinion regarding legalized mobile sports betting in North Carolina.
Georgia Company Launches AI-Powered Episodic Entertainment Marketing Initiative
Park Ave Cosmetic Center has launched an initiative to evaluate AI-generated episodic storytelling as part of its digital marketing strategy.
Unlikely duo seeks ban on using campaign funds to fight sexual harassment claims
Reps. Ro Khanna (D-California) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-Florida) have teamed up on new legislation in response to a spate of scandals.
Grizzlies' Scotty Pippen: Competing for top point guard role
Grizzlies' Scotty Pippen: Competing for top point guard role
Celtics' Payton Pritchard: New role incoming
Celtics' Payton Pritchard: New role incoming
Texas investigates major tampon, cosmetics manufacturers for alleged deceptive health claims
The Texas Attorney General's office has launched sweeping, industry-wide investigations into major manufacturers of feminine care and cosmetic products over concerns that companies may be misleading consumers about the presence of toxic chemicals and heavy metals.
Texas investigates major tampon, cosmetics manufacturers for alleged deceptive health claims
The Texas Attorney General's office has launched sweeping, industry-wide investigations into major manufacturers of feminine care and cosmetic products over concerns that companies may be misleading consumers about the presence of toxic chemicals and heavy metals.
Popular School Cafeteria Meals Need An Update To Meet Healthy Food Standards, Researchers Say
By Dennis Thompson HealthDay ReporterMONDAY, July 27, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Spicy chicken wings, tacos, pizza, sausage biscuits and breakfast smoothies offered by school cafeterias must be reinvented, lest they vanish from the menu, a new study says. These items all contain loads of added sugar ...
'Yo-yo' Weight Loss Linked To Decline In Muscle Mass
By Dennis Thompson HealthDay ReporterMONDAY, July 27, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Middle-aged folks have a higher risk of muscle loss if their weight “yo-yos” due to inconsistent dieting, a new study says. People who repeatedly dropped and regained weight wound up losing nearly four times as much thigh ...
Restaurant owner launches GoFundMe after fire leaves Southside business “beyond repair”
Johnathan Streeter wrote that he noticed a burning smell at the restaurant around 4 p.m. Saturday, left the premises at 7 p.m., then got a call about 9:30 p.m. telling him the restaurant was on fire. He said the damage was so extensive “the restaurant is no longer fixable.”
Athletics' Tommy White: Settling into full-time role
Athletics' Tommy White: Settling into full-time role
Twins' Joe Ryan: On track to start Wednesday
Twins' Joe Ryan: On track to start Wednesday
Hidden genetic diversity helped inbred brown tree snakes conquer guam
A notorious snake invasion that devastated Guam’s native birds may have succeeded because the reptiles carried hidden genetic advantages. Using advanced long-read DNA sequencing, researchers uncovered more than 19,000 large genetic differences in brown tree snakes, many concentrated in genes tied to immunity and smell. This overlooked diversity may have helped a population founded by only a few snakes survive inbreeding, adapt to a new environment, and multiply to extraordinary densities.
Pelicans' Kobe Bufkin: Inks pact with New Orleans
Pelicans' Kobe Bufkin: Inks pact with New Orleans
Orioles' Samuel Basallo: Shut down for a couple days
Orioles' Samuel Basallo: Shut down for a couple days
Astros' Kai-Wei Teng: Earns win in relief Friday
Astros' Kai-Wei Teng: Earns win in relief Friday
Health alerts issued for poor air quality across Montana
The smell of smoke and hazy skies has become a familiar sight in Bozeman summers, raising concerns about air quality.Wildfire smoke contains tiny particles know
Broken Politics and AI Jailbreaks: The Week in Review
Americans’ hosting duties are over with the 2026 World Cup now in the rearview mirror, but a recent poll shows they’re dissatisfied with the nation’s leadership. Meanwhile, a surveillance state might be upon us as AI and consumer tech creep into Americans’ personal lives. Holliday Woodard here with ...
Ex-NFL Coach Provides Honest Assessment of Ravens’ Lamar Jackson
There have been different opinions on Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson of late, but everyone knows he’s among the best players in the NFL.Last year was an outlier for Jackson since he dealt with so many injuries during the season. That affected his play on the field, finishing with a 63.6% completion percentage for 2,549 […] The post Ex-NFL Coach Provides Honest Assessment of Ravens’ Lamar Jackson appeared first on HEAVY.
The government killed this nature study. Scientists finished it anyway. » Yale Climate Connections
When the National Nature Assessment was shut down, the scientists who worked on it kept going. In this Q&A, one author shares what the research reveals about nature’s powerful, underused role in supporting health.
Lysol Maker Reckitt to Offload Sanctions-Hit Russian Hygiene Business
The deal with Russia’s Arnest Management—which manufactures cosmetics and household goods—is expected to complete during the second half of 2026.
Georgia: Journalist jailed and comedian attacked for political satire
Reacting to the 14-day jailing of journalist Vakho Sanaia over his satirical Facebook posts and a reported assault on comedian Onise Okriashvili following a smear campaign in pro-government media prompted by a joke he had made, Denis Krivosheev, Amnesty International’s Eastern Europe and Central Asia Deputy Regional Director, said: “Beating up and imprisoning government critics […]
Meta Toes the Line on Smart Glasses Harassment With New Instagram Ban
It's now a bannable offense to use Meta's smart glasses to film and post videos of harassing prank videos.
Florida-Based Science and Technology Company Crescel Announces Landmark Peer-Reviewed Medical Publication
Crescel LLC, a Florida-based innovative science and technology company, today announced publication of its landmark PubMed-indexed, peer-reviewed clinical study showing that its biobotanical technology produced statistically significant improvements over the leading prescription standard of care for rosacea in a randomized, double-blind, controlled clinical trial. Published in the Journal of Cosmetic Dermatology, the study represents a major scientific milestone for the company's pioneering prop
SFA continues dolphin health research through leadership role in PHASM drone development project
NACOGDOCHES, Texas –– Stephen F. Austin State University continues its leadership role in drone-based dolphin health research using the Passive Health Assessment in Sea Mammals, or PHASM, platform in Galveston.
Tongue Pacemaker Might Improve Sleep Apnea Patients' Health
By Dennis Thompson HealthDay ReporterTHURSDAY, July 23, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Do you have sleep apnea, but find CPAP machines too uncomfortable or noisy? A pacemaker for the tongue might help improve your sleep and overall health, a new study says. People who received a hypoglossal nerve ...
In private call, Michigan Republican running for Senate sees himself in ‘good shape’ against one particular Democrat
As Michigan Democrats debate who is their best candidate for Senate, the presumptive Republican nominee, Mike Rogers, has a frank private assessment of the field.
Orcas Keep Punching Giant Sunfish to Smithereens, And Scientists Are Mesmerized
Orca SMASH!
Nevada congressmen introduce bipartisan bill to ban sports betting on prediction markets
Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) and Rep. Mark Amodei's (R-NV) bill would also ban casino-style games on sites such as Kalshi.
Teen Plaintiff Suing Meta Over Mental Health Harms Drops His Claims Against Company Days Before Trial
By Diana Novak Jones July 22 (Reuters) - A Florida teen whose lawsuit claimed Meta’s platforms were to blame for his depression and anxiety dropped his case against the company just days before the trial in Los Angeles was set to start, his attorneys said on Wednesday. The lawsuit, brought ...
If You Aren't Going To BlizzCon 2026, You Can Still Spend Money Like You Are
Cosmetic bundles for Blizzard's biggest games are live now.
US to Spend $5 Billion on Health, Construction Research Powered by AI
By Courtney Rozen WASHINGTON, July 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. will spend $5 billion to tackle long-standing scientific problems across multiple fields using AI, the Trump administration said in a statement on Wednesday. The agencies will use the funding to identify the root causes of chronic ...
Anthropic to Donate $20 Million to US Political Group That Supports AI Regulation
WASHINGTON, July 22 (Reuters) - AI giant Anthropic will donate $20 million to a lobbying organization that supports AI regulation, according to a company statement released on Wednesday, its latest move to influence U.S. policy on the technology. The company is donating to Public First Action,
American scientists see prosecutions as part of federal campaign against them
Federal officials charged two virologists they stopped en route from an African disease outbreak with violating import rules. But scientists tell KFF Health News the inactivated samples they carried posed no threat to the public, and they characterize the arrests as part of a government harassment campaign.
Poland, Hungary's Foreign Worker Curbs Create Headache for Business
By Gergely Szakacs, Canan Sevgili and Alan Charlish KISVARDA, Hungary/GDANSK, Poland, July 22 (Reuters) - Facing a choice between upsetting businesses and a public opinion backlash, the Polish and Hungarian ruling centrists are opting for curbs on foreign labour — something economists warn may ...
UMass Chan leading national study on school-based health centers
Michelle Trivedi, MD’09, MPH, received a $3.8 million grant from the National Institutes of Health to study school-based health centers.
New Polls Show Americans Angsting Over Politics and Healthcare Affordability
Two new surveys are offering insight into issues that are increasingly worrying Americans. According to polling firm Gallup, politics is not only dividing the public but it is seen by many as a top safety concern, while the fear of losing health insurance is leading a substantial number of people to ...
New Polls Show Americans Angsting Over Politics and Healthcare Affordability
Two new surveys are offering insight into issues that are increasingly worrying Americans. According to polling firm Gallup, politics is not only dividing the public but it is seen by many as a top safety concern, while the fear of losing health insurance is leading a substantial number of people to ...
US Health Secretary Kennedy Says CMS Is Pausing Medicaid Payments to California and Minnesota
July 21 (Reuters) - The Trump administration is pausing over $1 billion in Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota "because of suspected fraud and noncompliance," U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. said on Tuesday. "If those states want that money they need to ...
Vikings Get Hit with a Bleak Assessment by Sports Juggernaut
The Vikings getting hit with pessimism isn’t particularly profound. Many, including among those who cheer for Minnesota, express very negative […]
Experts from over 70 countries to contribute to eight edition of the
UNESCO has selected over 150 experts to contribute to the eighth edition of the UNESCO Science Report, marking an important milestone in the preparation of the Organization's flagship assessment of
Behind the Science: Can IL-6 Improve Cardiovascular Risk Assessment? Findings From the CCC Study
Discover the socio-demographic impacts on cardiovascular mortality in our JACC webinar. Join experts as they share insights and strategies for better heart health.
Heartflow launches new AI-powered staging tool for coronary plaque assessments
In addition to launching Heartflow Plaque Staging, the company also shared new data at SCCT2026 highlighting the importance of using total plaque volume assessments to diagnose and manage heart patients.
Lakers' Matisse Thybulle: Agrees to sign with Lakers
Lakers' Matisse Thybulle: Agrees to sign with Lakers
EPA Requests Comments on Draft Science NOx Science Assessment
What: On July 17, 2026, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a document titled “Integrated Science Assessment for Oxides of Nitrogen—Health Criteria, External Review Draft” (“draft ISA”) for public comment.Why: Under the Clean Air
Pirates' Esmerlyn Valdez continues strong start to big league career
Esmerlyn Valdez’s strong start to his major league career is showing no signs of slowing down.
Trump’s attacks on democracy reveal his authoritarian ambitions | LSE United States Politics and Policy
Trump is becoming a dictator, one who combines the transactional pursuit of profit and power with racism, white supremacy, and personalised rule.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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