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Something Nefarious Is Happening in Your Living Room Every Time You Watch TV
Music streaming services, newsletter platforms, and even Instagram are reshaping their products for the biggest screen in your house.
Today’s Papers – Farewell Zanardi, the Superhero
La Gazzetta dello SportSuperheroFarewell to the man of impossible featsA driver living life always on the edge. The crash and his legs were amputated, then he won the gold medals at the Paralympic Gam...
The politics of Trump's ballroom
WEST PALM BEACH, Florida — President Trump was about a half-hour into his second speech of the day, musing about the danger he faced last week at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. “Saturday night, it was good for one thing. People are loving my ballroom now,” Trump told a crowd last night. “That’s the only thing. They love my ballroom.” Ever since he was hustled off stage at the Washington Hilton last week, after an attempted shooter breached the dinner’s security perimeter and sent guests diving to the floor, the president has argued that the incident is proof for why his White House ballroom is needed. Only his planned $400 million, 90,000-square-foot project, Trump has reasoned, can keep a president truly safe at major events. It’s true that a bunch of GOP lawmakers have jumped on board with new legislation and words of support for Trump’s project. House Speaker Mike Johnson, Sen. Rand Paul and other prominent Republicans went on TV to talk about the need for a ballroom. But as we reported at The Washington Post this week, “people” aren’t really changing their minds on Trump’s ballroom. A new Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that most Americans still oppose the ballroom project: 56 percent against it versus 28 percent in favor. The numbers are the same as a poll from last year, the Post’s polling whiz Scott Clement found. Other new polls have found similar margins, too. “I’m just not a giant fan, especially of extravagance,” one independent voter told me. “I mean, in the era we’re in right now, given how much people are struggling, it just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to spend $400 million on a ballroom.” How we got here The Washington Post has followed Trump’s ballroom project very closely. (My colleague Jonathan Edwards may have written the most total words of any reporter about the project; I may be second.) The project exploded as a national issue after Trump tore down the White House’s East Wing after initially promising not to touch it.1 Historic preservationists sued, and about a month ago, a federal judge ordered a halt to ballroom construction.2 The only way the ballroom could proceed, U.S. District Judge Richard Leon ruled, was if Congress explicitly authorized Trump’s plans. (An appeals court has stayed Leon’s order for now.) The judge’s ruling raised an obvious question: would Congress authorize the project? Keep in mind, “authorization” doesn’t mean that Congress needs to necessarily fund the planned $400 million project; they could just sign off on the private donations that Trump has solicited to pay for the ballroom.3 But GOP lawmakers really didn’t want to talk about the ballroom, we reported at The Post just a few weeks ago. One major reason was the ballroom’s bad polling — not a small detail with many of their own midterm elections looming. The White House Correspondents’ Dinner incident, and Trump’s advocacy, may have changed the political conversation around the ballroom. As this week’s polling shows, it doesn’t seem to have affected the fundamental questions surrounding the project. To put it another way, voters still say that cost-of-living concerns are top-of-mind heading into the midterms. Some Republican and independent voters have told me that they see the ballroom as a vanity project that will help Trump but do nothing for their own lives. It might not help Republicans that Trump has dismissed some of the cost-of-living concerns. He’s described “affordability” as a buzzword manufactured by Democrats whose policies helped cause inflation. “They’ve got one good line of bullshit,” Trump said in his first speech yesterday, delivered at a Florida retirement community known as The Villages. Thanks for reading Dan Diamond's newsletter! Subscribe for free to stay up-to-date on my work. Subscribe Speaking of Trump’s speeches… I’m down in Florida because it’s my “duty week” as a White House reporter — basically, I follow the president wherever he goes. (And then hand the baton off to one of my Washington Post colleagues next week.) As part of my duty week, I’ve spent a few days covering the White House’s reaction to Saturday’s attempted shooting, including officials’ review of the security protocols to protect the president. Trump was restrained in the wake of the incident, addressing the nation from the White House briefing room about the need for peaceful dialogue and trying to lower the temperature. But he’s clearly been itching to get back out of the White House, and I was curious to hear how his Florida speeches would go. And — to my ears — it was an unburdened Trump. Not the one we saw Saturday night in the White House briefing room, but the one we witnessed on the campaign trail in 2024. Loose, dropping profanities, mocking everyone, including members of his team. “We have a man here who knows more about Medicaid, Medicare, medical crap than any human being. Where’s Dr. Oz? Where the hell are you, stand up,” Trump said, referring to Mehmet Oz, the administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. “It’s the most boring trip I’ve ever made. He’s telling me about Medicare, Medicaid. All I want to do is take care of you, I don’t care. I said, ‘You work out the details.’” I wrote up the speech, as Trump headed to West Palm Beach to deliver more remarks a few hours later. The White House didn’t like my story. Their rapid-response team called it the work of a “total loser”4 and “a miserable TDS-ridden moron.” You can be the judge of whether it’s a fair story or the product of someone afflicted with “TDS.” (The White House’s shorthand for “Trump Derangement Syndrome.”) I’ve pasted the story below with a gift link, meaning that you don’t need to be a Washington Post subscriber to read it. It might prompt you for an email address, though. Meanwhile, I’ll be down in Florida for the rest of the weekend, covering the president. It’s TBD whether those stories will be deemed TDS-afflicted, too. 1 Jonathan details the past six months of ballroom fallout, reactions and the implications for executive authority here. I also had a great time talking about Trump’s ballroom and other projects with Australia’s ABC News Daily on a podcast this week. 2 The judge allowed underground construction and national security-related work to continue. But that hasn’t been enough for Trump, who says the ballroom itself is essential for his protection. 3 The ballroom donors include companies like Palantir, Google and Amazon. For transparency, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post, where I work. No one has ever interfered with our team’s coverage of the ballroom or our mentions of Amazon or Bezos, and if that changed, I’d speak out. 4 To be fair, I’ve spent the morning working on stories and writing this Substack post rather than enjoying the beautiful Florida weather. So they may be onto something about who’s winning and who’s losing.
'Aberdeen not safe yet'
Aberdeen fans, we asked for your views on Friday night's 2-2 draw against Livingston. Chris: To be perfectly honest after last night my worry is Stephen Robinson and his team selection. As time passes my real fear is who Robinson will show the door and who will come in.
‘Living in survival mode’: Houston’s embattled immigrant community faces health, climate and petrochemical crises
Amid immigration raids, chemical spills, massive floods and costly healthcare, less-affluent residents of one of the most diverse US cities struggle to pull through
Couple bought a 380 sq. ft. shed for $12K, turned it into a tiny home
Meagan and Scott Edson downsized from a 2,000-square-foot home to a 380-square-foot shed. Six years later, they say they love living in a tiny home.
Scientists sound alarm as dangerous amoebas spread globally
Free-living amoebae are emerging as a global health concern, fueled by warming temperatures and outdated water systems. While many are harmless, some can cause deadly infections and even protect other dangerous microbes. Their ability to survive heat and disinfectants makes them especially hard to control. Scientists say improved surveillance and water treatment are urgently needed.
See the top track and field performances in Livingston County
Some of the fastest times in Livingston County history highlight the list of top track and field performances in the first month.
🗞️ The district dazzling Europe, on Friday’s front pages
Vallecas is living a dream. Last night, the Madrid neighborhood experienced one of its most special evenings thanks to its flagship club: Rayo Vallecano.La Franja earned a golden result against Strasb...
At UCLA’s botanical garden, science blooms for young students
Living classroom field trips are helping K-12 students connect with nature, science and a university campus experience.
Tulane students are betting big as sports wagering becomes campus norm
With one parlay bet, you can turn the $20 your mom gave you for food into $200. Enticing, right? This mindset is common on college campuses across the country. 67% of students living on campus participate in sports betting, and Tulane University is no exception. “There’s no barrier to entry for these gambling sites. It’s...
Microsoft's Internal Initiative to Fix Windows 11: Don't Rush Features Out the Door
Unless you've been living under a rock, you've seen the numerous issues Windows users have faced, from poor performance to experience-breaking bugs and updates, and AI oversaturation in the OS. While Microsoft has previously announced that it intends to address many of these complaints levelled by W...
Scientists Rethink How Much Lifespan Is in Our Control
Research upending long-held estimates of genetic influence on lifespan could relieve the pressure to get all the lifestyle factors right.
Healthy workers are ditching company insurance to save $1,000 a month
With premiums rising 6 percent in 2025 for company family plans alongside the growing cost of living, some workers are questioning whether their benefits are worth the cost.
Don’t upend Colorado’s ‘healthy balance’ on stream access
By Ashley House “The horizon is a perfect line between sky and water.” I heard this line of dialogue waft through my parents’ living room recently as they tuned into one of the newest Taylor Sheridan TV dramas, “The Madison.” As I lingered to admire the cinematographic qualities of the show (shot within the Madison River […]
'Important' Man City 'listened' to possible ticket price increase
For a third consecutive campaign, Manchester City will not increase ticket prices. Official Supporters Club representative Kevin Parker told BBC Sport's Manchester City reporter, Shamoon Hafez that "putting prices up in this in the current climate is an absolute no, no". City have reacted by freezing ticket prices "in recognition of the extraordinary accumulated impact of the current cost of living pressures on fans and their families".
Business briefs, April 29
Ventas expects 2026 senior living investments will total $3B by year’s end … RFK Jr.’s recent comments on paid family caregivers ‘deeply concerning,’ advocates say … DHS interim final rule codifying immigration fees goes into effect May 29 … Assisted living provider groups back new HCBS quality measures, with caveats … Fitch rates Lebanon Valley Brethren Home at BBB
Developers break ground on 328-acre North Houston 'healthy living' hub
The district will focus on "state-of-the-art healthcare services."
Volunteer Hospital Named Chamber's Large Business of the Year
We're trusted with the health and wellbeing of more than half a million people living across 9,000 square miles of West Tennessee.
A New Big Database of DNA From Indigenous Americans Shakes Up Scientists' Theories About Human Settlement of South America
Genomic data provides evidence for a previously unknown wave of migration, with Indigenous groups living in central and southern Mexico spreading into South America and the Caribbean starting around 1,300 years ago
Tetris 99's New Crossover Event Celebrates Tomodachi Life: Living The Dream, Unlock A Special Theme
Drop into island life
Neanderthals' brains weren't to blame for their demise, new study suggests
Researchers examining the brains of living people found that they differed more substantially than Neanderthals' brains differed from modern humans', calling into question the reason our evolutionary cousins mysteriously disappeared.
From Brazil to Livingston: Vania Assis’ journey in science finds a home at UWA
Dr. Vania Assis grew up in a small town in Brazil where she rode horses, tended pigs and chickens alongside her father, even helping butcher cattle when the need arose. Now an assistant professor at UWA, Assis is committed to studying and protecting amphibians and educating others about this endangered group of vertebrates.
Treatment-first court model is redefining justice for people with serious mental illnesses
Kalamazoo County’s Mental Health Recovery court offers an alternative path for certain nonviolent offenders living with serious mental illness.
Supreme Court takes up appeal from Trump administration over living conditions for migrant farmworkers
The Supreme Court agreed Monday to decide whether the US Department of Labor is empowered to enforce working conditions for foreign farm laborers, delving into an immigration program that the Trump administration is attempting to expand.
Pesticide exposure linked to 150% higher cancer risk in major study
A major new study finds that living in pesticide-heavy environments could raise cancer risk by up to 150%, even when the chemicals are considered “safe” on their own. The research suggests these mixtures may silently damage cells years before cancer appears.
Making a difference with living donor kidney organs
The importance of kidney transplant from living donors, explain transplant specialists.
‘All INdiana Politics’
Congressman Jefferson Shreve is optimistic about federal funding for a new Roudebush VA hospital, while voters back home are more concerned with rising costs of living.
Play to celebrate island living
“On Island,” a play by acclaimed novelist and screenwriter Susan Minot, will be staged at the Stonington Opera House on Friday and Saturday, May 8-9, at 7 p.m.
She's 35 and obsessed with living longer. It might be working.
It's the Wild West for women's health and longevity, and Kayla Barnes-Lentz is taking the reins.
Brain health: Alzheimer's 2026 new report on cognitive impairment & dementia in Tennessee
An estimated 7.4 million Americans age 65 and older are now living with clinical dementia due to Alzheimer's disease, according to a newly released report from
Our multigenerational living helped my family build wealth, elder care
Living in a multigenerational home, with my mother in the basement apartment, helped my family care for her, pay off loans, and buy a vacation house.
'Eventually, it becomes you': Inventors of new 'living' knee replacement describe why this tech is desperately needed and how it works
Live Science spoke with the developers of a living knee implant that could help more patients in need of knee replacements get them.
The lure of living in the past: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Kristen Welker recaps her bipartisan interview with Sens. Katie Britt and John Fetterman.
The healthcare paradox of more options, less access
Together, we can promote healthier living by using technology to expand access to care.
Soul x Science Returns to London's Portland Place this May 2026
Soul x Science returns to London on 16th May for an immersive experience at the intersection of science, health & conscious living
St Mirren v Livingston: Pick of the stats
St Mirren have lost just one of their past 16 Scottish Premiership meetings with Livingston (W7 D8), going down 1-0 away from home in February 2024. Livingston won their first-ever Premiership visit to St Mirren 2-0 in August 2018, but have since failed to win 10 such trips in the competition (D4 L6), losing their past four in a row and failing to score in their latest three. Depending on Kilmarnock's result at Aberdeen, Livingston could be relegated this weekend should they fail to beat St Mirren.
Chernobyl at 40: Wildlife and science in the exclusion zone
Forty years after the Chernobyl accident, the largely uninhabited exclusion zone around the nuclear power plant has become a haven for wildlife, as well as providing the world with a unique living laboratory for scientific study of the impact of radioactive elements. The zone also plays a large part in popular culture's enduring interest and fascination with the events of 1986. ;
Amendment 55: Step-2 Due Date for B.3 Living With a Star Science
B.3 Living With a Star Science (LWS) emphasizes the science necessary to understand those aspects of the coupled Sun-Earth system that affect life and
‘The Neighbourhood’: Creative Team Behind ITV’s Latest Big Entertainment Bet On Host Graham Norton’s Perfectly “Mischievous & Witty” Tone: “We Feel Lucky To Have Got Him Inbetween Taylor Swift Video Shoots”
Graham Norton clearly doesn’t do things by halves and he spent a full month living around the corner from contestants on The Neighbourhood, ITV’s constructed reality series that launches Saturday nigh...
Focusing in on human health research at annual space meeting
Long-duration spaceflight can chip away at an astronaut’s health, prompting scientists to find new ways to make living in space easier on the body. The journey to outer space is incredibly dangerous, but crews must also face day-to-day hazards, such as exposure to cancer-causing radiation, microgravity and extreme isolation. Understanding and ...
How can scientists visualize cellular life with greater precision? - Salk Institute for Biological Studies
Highlights Salk researchers collaborated with scientists at Albert Einstein College of Medicine to develop a new class of probes for imaging living cells The probes, called visible-spectrum antigen-stabilizable fluorescent nanobodies (VIS-Fbs), generate high-contrast images with minimal disruption to normal cellular activity The technology enables more precise investigation of complex biological processes, including cell signaling, development, and disease progression LA JOLLA—Fluorescent proteins have revolutionized science, enabling researchers to tag and visualize individual molecules in living cells, tissues, and animals. Using these tools, researchers have watched viruses infect cells in real time, observed cellular trash collection, and tracked the signaling that spurs tumor growth.
Ancient DNA reveals a hidden Neanderthal group frozen in time
A remarkable genetic breakthrough has uncovered what may be one of the clearest snapshots yet of a Neanderthal “community” living together 100,000 years ago in what is now Poland. The findings reveal that these individuals shared genetic ties with Neanderthals spread across Europe and the Caucasus, hinting at widespread ancient lineages that later disappeared.
Trump, Pope Leo And A New Chapter in America’s Religious Politics
(ANALYSIS) American religion has rarely, if ever, seen anything quite like these past weeks. Start with President Donald Trump’s profane Easter Sunday message to Iran: “Open the [unprintable F-bomb] Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah." The l
Hisense Ignites the Countdown to the FIFA World Cup 2026™, Showcasing Next-Generation Home Entertainment and Smart Living
/PRNewswire/ -- Hisense, a leading brand in global consumer electronics and home appliances, today marks the 50-day countdown to the FIFA World Cup 2026™ with...
New imaging technique helps scientists see the inside of living cells to study how cancer spreads and grows
New fluorescent dyes allow scientists to watch cancer activity inside living cells in real time, opening new possibilities for treatment.
Prank calls, trash talk and an ocean of boos: Reliving the weirdest, funniest, most memorable moments of NFL Drafts past
NDFS Honored Graduate: Julia Wangsgard’s Recipe for Success
Driven by curiosity and a love for problem-solving, Julia Wangsgard is using food science to innovate, research, and create new products that promote healthier living.
Third party mayor finds no honeymoon from partisan politics
Jay Doyle was 100 days into his first term as Mayor of Georgetown. He hadn’t been counting up, he said. He had been counting down. “I was retired, living a nice, peaceful life, and this just throws your life into chaos,” Doyle said. “I think it’s intended to be a part time job. It’s anything […]
3D printing is now possible inside living cells
For the first time, researchers have 3D-printed tiny objects directly inside of living cells, including an elephant and barcode tags.
'The chances of you living 50 years are very small': Theoretical physicist explains why humanity likely won't survive to see all the forces unified
Live Science spoke with Nobel prize-winning physicist David Gross, who recently received the $3 million Special Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Physics, about the quest to unite all the forces and why humanity might not live to see a unified theory.
Felt lost moving back to my hometown at 30; new activity helped
I struggled to adjust to living in my hometown after spending years abroad. Discovering Brazilian jiu-jitsu helped me build community and confidence.
10 Things In Your Bedroom You Should Toss Today
From bookshelves and overly-cluttered dressers to lighting and furniture sets, these are the things Southern designers say it’s time to retire or replace in the bedroom for a place of calm and rest.
I test compact and film cameras for a living, and here are my top 12 recommendations for the summer
Perfect for sun-kissed shots
See list of Livingston County entrants in 130th Boston Marathon
Here's the list of 16 Livingston County runners entered in the 130th Boston Marathon Monday, April 20.
Kara Swisher examines the science, tech and business of living longer in new CNN docuseries
Kara Swisher begins her new CNN series on longevity and health in a cemetery, reflecting on her father's death. The series, “Kara Swisher Wants to Live Forever,” explores how health
Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream solves Animal Crossing: New Horizon's biggest problem
I quickly burnt myself out playing Animal Crossing: New Horizons. I don't expect that to happen with Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream
Top US cities with the most affordable rent prices in 2026
People across the US are feeling the strain of rising living costs. These are the 31 most affordable US cities for renters in 2026.
Scientists Found 5.5 Million Bees Living Beneath a New York Cemetery
One of the largest aggregations of ground-nesting bees in the world.
Always wanted to move to Paris; another French city was better for me
Growing up, I dreamed of living in Paris, but later realized Lyon, France, was a better fit for me. I prefer the city's location and cost of living.
House Armed Services ranking member on Iran negotiations: ‘It’s hard to know what reality Donald Trump is living in’
In memoriam: Nicholas 'Nick' Xavier Kuehn, junior, Pamplin College of Business
Born in Burlington, North Carolina, the 19-year-old was pursuing a degree in cybersecurity management and analytics and was a member of the Securitas Living Learning Community. He passed away March 29.
New Tomodachi Life Website Tools to Track and Inspire Your Miis
Tomodachi Life: Living The Dream has hit the physical and digital video game stores worldwide! The game is a perfect sandbox life simulator with many
Living in rent-stabilized NYC apartment; feel stuck after 5 years
Winning New York City's affordable-housing lottery got me a rent-stabilized apartment. It's too small for my family, but giving it up isn't an option.
HHS Announces $4 Million KidneyX EMPOWER Prize Challenge and Health Technology Project to Advance Living Kidney Donation and Patient-Centered Innovation
HHS launches KidneyX EMPOWER, a $4M national challenge to advance living kidney donation and support patient-centered innovation.
After his own diagnosis, New Orleans Broadway star starts foundation for children with Type 1 diabetes
Kyle Banks was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes during his Broadway tour of Disney's The Lion King after months of struggling with symptoms. Now, the New Orleans native wants to give back to his roots by providing resources for Louisiana children and families living with the disease.
Dundee can take nothing for granted in bottom-six battle
For all I have been praising Dundee in recent times, the stark truth is they find themselves in their current predicament because their points return has not been good enough having won just two of their past 12 Premiership games. Head coach Steven Pressley praised the "character", "personality" and "resilience" his side showed as they twice came from behind to draw 2-2 at Killie last Saturday. In the 15 league games the Dark Blues have played against the other teams in the bottom half this season – Dundee United, Aberdeen, St Mirren, Kilmarnock and Livingston - Pressley's side have won five, drawn six and lost four.
From a massive living area to an entertainment room and art collection: Ram Kapoor’s approximately Rs 20 crore Mumbai house
Ram Kapoor enjoys a lavish lifestyle in Mumbai with wife Gautami and kids. He once gave a glimpse of his luxurious Mumbai house in a Farah Khan’s vlog. The house is worth around Rs 20 crore and includes an entertainment room, bar and much more. Here’s a look at his lavish Mumbai house:
Political activist Abbie Hoffman was found dead in Bucks County on this week in Philly history
The 52-year-old who became a symbol of defiance spent his last few years in Bucks County, where he was found in the converted chicken coop he had been living in on April 12, 1989.
Fund science, downtown living expensive, protect America
I enjoyed reading the article about how Artemis II “captivated Americans young and old across political divides, bringing unity of wonder, hope and pride to a nation torn by partisan
The Business of Resilience
Discover how resilience means building forward, not bouncing back. Explore JEFRË's monumental art and why celebrating living artists matters.
Trump can’t save college sports. But Congress can.
The SCORE Act could help civilize the Wild West that student-athletes have been living in for years.
Ask the Developer Vol. 21: Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream — Part 3 - News
This article has been translated from the original Japanese content. This interview was conducted before the game was released. In this 21st volume of Ask the Developer, an interview series in which developers convey in their own words Nintendo's th…
Ask the Developer Vol. 21: Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream — Part 1 - News
This article has been translated from the original Japanese content. This interview was conducted before the game was released. In this 21st volume of Ask the Developer, an interview series in which developers convey in their own words Nintendo's th…
Portland Lawmaker Wants to Majorly Turn Up the Dial on Forced Mental Health and Addiction Treatment
“If someone is in the fentanyl fold out on the streets, they are not living their best life,” state Sen. Lisa Reynolds says.
Scientists Grow Electronics Inside the Brains of Living Mice
The technology harnesses the brain's own blood chemistry to assemble soft, light-controlled electrodes around neurons.
Dallas ISD voters to decide largest school bond in state history
On May 2nd, voters living in Dallas ISD will decide whether to pay $33 more a year in property taxes to pay for a $6.2 billion bond package. The plan would build 26 new schools and make major upgrades to facilities and technology at every campus. Lone Star Politics speaks with Miguel Solis, former President of DISD Board of Trustees and now the President of the Commit Partnership.
UToledo Healthcare Symposium
Health professionals gathered in downtown Toledo on Friday, to learn about living kidney donation and explore recent innovations in renal transplantation.
Political notes: 'Flowers' for the living, cupcakes for the interim birthday caucus
The farewell celebrations continue as the session nears the end, retiring from the House of Delegates comes with more than just some flowers and kind words and the large, but so far unseen, Interim Birthday Caucus gets its day, in political notes.
UFC adds former title challenger to the White House card
Despite arguably being one of the best six-fight lineups in the company's history, the UFC White House card suffered backlash from fans for not living up to the lofty expectations placed on its shoulders. To combat the noise, Dana White decided to add more firepower to the June 14 event. The ...
Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream ROM leaked online
It's now been confirmed that the Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream ROM has leaked online just days before launch.
Times Opinion: Let’s expel toxic right-wing politics from the Hamilton County Board of Education
Within national politics, we are living in a world dominated by a toxic political environment. While that is severely toned down at the local level, it does seep through into one realm: our schools.
Nearly 100 Colorado businesses have left or scaled back operations since 2019, report finds
A new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation suggests the state’s weakening competitiveness is driving businesses out of state. Companies are blaming factors like increasing regulations and cost of living for why they’re choosing to...
Scientists Baffled by Bizarre “Living Fossil” From 275 Million Years Ago
Tanyka amnicola is a newly identified ancient tetrapod known from unusual twisted jawbones adapted for grinding plants. This rare herbivorous “living fossil” helps scientists better understand early evolution and ecosystems in Gondwana. In a dry riverbed in Brazil, deep within a forest near the A
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
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Kara Swisher examines the science, tech and business of living longer in new CNN docuseries
Kara Swisher begins her new CNN series on longevity and health in a cemetery, reflecting on her father's death | K-DAWN
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