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Congressional Republicans Struggle to Do the Basics as Chambers Clash
House Republicans toiled to pass major measures as lawmakers scramble to fund homeland security, extend spy powers and deliver a farm bill.
Congressional Republicans propose cutting WIC by $200 million
Anti-hunger advocates say it would be “devastating.”
Congressional Republicans propose cutting WIC by $200 million
Anti-hunger advocates say it would be “devastating.”
Supreme Court ruling not expected to affect House maps this year: experts
Supreme Court overturning Louisiana's congressional map shouldn't mean redrawing maps in other states this year because primaries have already passed.
Florida legislature approves new congressional map intended to boost Republicans in midterms
The Florida Legislature approved a new congressional map intended to maximize Republicans’ advantage in the state as part of the national redistricting battle that President Donald Trump launched ahead of this year’s midterms.
What’s next for Louisiana’s Congressional maps after the Supreme Court’s Callais ruling?
With early voting set to begin Saturday, it was not immediately clear whether or how the ruling would affect the current election cycle.
Alabama Republicans push for new congressional map after seismic Supreme Court ruling: ‘It’s time to act’
Republicans are calling on Gov. Kay Ivey to convene a special session to redraw the congressional maps.
WATCH: Hegseth calls congressional Democrats, some Republicans 'biggest adversary' in Iran war
House approves Ron DeSantis-proposed congressional map
The lower chamber deferred to the Governor's Office on creation of the cartography.
Supreme Court limits key provision of the landmark Voting Rights Act
The decision could touch off a scramble by Republicans to redraw minority-majority congressional districts, especially in the South, that could cost many Black Democrats their seats.
Supreme Court voids majority Black congressional district in Louisiana, boosting Republican chances
The Supreme Court on Wednesday struck down Louisiana’s second majority Black congressional district in a decision that could open the door for Republican-led states to eliminate Black and Latino electoral districts that tend to favor Democrats and affect the balance of power in Congress.
Supreme Court rules Louisiana’s Congressional maps are ‘unconstitutional racial gerrymander’
The ruling will have huge implications for elections not just in Louisiana but across the country.
Mac Deford talks Congressional run, SC politics
Deford is now considered one of the Democratic frontrunners for the First Congressional District nomination
DeSantis' Florida redistricting map advances — but draws GOP no votes, legal scrutiny
Florida is seen as the last possible place before the November midterms for Republicans to gain seats in mid-decade redistricting, a process kickstarted last year by President Donald Trump and the White House.
Health system CEOs get off easy at Congressional hearing on affordability
Committee members largely blamed the other party’s health care policies for driving U.S. health care prices to levels inaccessible to many Americans.
Waldrum warns “one-size-fits-all” health policy could harm rural patients and providers
ECU Health CEO Dr. Michael Waldrum testified before a congressional committee Tuesday, urging federal lawmakers to take targeted action to address rising health
Ron DeSantis congressional map draws sharply divided reactions ahead of Special Session
Lawmakers are expected to take up the proposal during a Special Session beginning Tuesday.
Ron DeSantis releases new congressional map creating four more GOP-leaning seats in Florida
Some Republicans are concerned it could put GOP incumbents in danger by spreading out conservative votes, and margins in many new seats will likely get tighter.
Gov. DeSantis releases proposed congressional map for Florida, could cut 4 Democratic seats
Democrats hold 8 seats on the current map.
Ron DeSantis unveils new Florida congressional map that would give the GOP an extra four seats
Gov. Ron DeSantis reveals a new Florida congressional map that would add four Republican seats, sparking a clash with Democratic leader Jeffries.
DeSantis, Florida GOP plowing ahead with new congressional maps despite risks
Remaking Florida’s congressional map is dicey for Republicans, who face strict redistricting rules and risk making safe GOP seats competitive.
Why Ohio's 1st District features 2 'actual' primaries this year
In one of the country's competitive congressional districts, Democratic voters seem torn and Republican voters face a field of political newcomers.
Congressional wives open up about their lives as political spouses
'Fox & Friends Weekend' co-host Rachel Campos-Duffy interviews wives of congressional lawmakers about raising kids in a political environment, protecting their marriages and managing public scrutiny.
Trump's disdain for wind projects creates a political storm for Republicans in coastal Virginia
President Donald Trump’s attempts to cancel offshore wind projects have drawn opposition not only from environmentalists but also from Republicans. One of them is Jen Kiggans, a congresswoman who represents a coastal district in Virginia where an $11.5 billion wind farm is expected to create 1,000 jobs. Her support for a project targeted by Trump shows the scrambled politics of clean energy in an election year where Republicans are at risk of losing the House. Kiggans could be even more at risk after Virginia voters approved on Tuesday a new congressional map that makes her competitive district more Democratic than before.
Elon Musk among donors to Cincinnati congressmen
Campaign contribution documents revealed notable donations made to congressional candidates in Greater Cincinnati.
The law sets a 60-day limit on unauthorized wars. Will Trump respect it?
A post-Vietnam law puts a 60-day clock on the use of military force without congressional authorization.
4 Democratic candidates discuss race for 3rd Congressional District
In the latest episode of Battleground Politics, NBC10's Lauren Mayk spoke with the four Democratic candidates for the 3rd Congressional District.
Welcome to the Resistance, Gerrymandering Texas Republicans
The new congressional seats Texas Republicans delivered for Trump by redistricting appear to have been canceled out—and then some—by Democratic states. Oops.
A New Worry for Republicans: Latino Catholics Offended by Trump
In 2024, the president made significant inroads with Hispanics. But in a competitive Arizona congressional district, voters now express dismay at his feud with the pope.
Kalshi fines and suspends 3 congressional candidates for betting on their own elections
Three congressional candidates wagered on the outcome of their own elections on Kalshi, according to the prediction market, which said Wednesday that it fined and suspended the men from their platform for five years.
7 hearings in 7 days: The takeaways from HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s week of congressional testimony
What to know about the missing scientists alarming Congress
The cases date back to at least 2023 but national security concerns prompted a congressional investigation.
Georgia Democratic Rep. David Scott dies at 80
Scott had recently filed to run for a 13th congressional term
Kalshi fines 3 congressional candidates for wagering on their own elections
It is the latest high-profile case of alleged insider trading on prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket.
Republicans pressure Ron DeSantis to redistrict in Florida after Virginia Democrats’ win
Senior Republicans in Washington are ramping up the pressure on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to lead a redrawing of his state’s US House map after Virginia Democrats triumphed in potentially flipping four seats in their favor. A special session to consider redistricting in Florida is slated to start Tuesday, but no map has been publicly released. A DeSantis spokesperson did not respond to a CNN inquiry about its status. Key Republicans involved in redistricting say they’ve been kept largely in the dark on DeSantis’ plans. There’s no coordination on the state level because of strict state rules around partisan gerrymandering, and no maps have been officially circulated within Florida’s congressional delegation either.
Scott’s rivals take a break from politics after the longtime congressman’s death upends the election
A crowded field of opponents who called for new leadership in the 13th Congressional District offered their condolences to David Scott's family.
Four women accuse Eva Lopez Chavez, a SLC Council member, of unwanted ‘sexual’ advances
Four women from Utah political circles accuse Eva Lopez Chavez, a Salt Lake City Council member and Democratic congressional candidate, of what they consider unwanted sexual advances.
Combative, Defensive and Occasionally Contrite, Kennedy Walks a Fine Line
In four days of congressional testimony, the health secretary sought to please the White House and his MAHA base at the same time.
4 takeaways from Health Secretary RFK Jr.'s gauntlet of congressional hearings
In his testimony to various committees in the Senate and the House over multiple days, Kennedy was tasked with defending President Donald Trump’s proposed 2027 budget, which would boost defense spending while cutting more than 12% of funding from the Department of Health and Human Services.
4 takeaways from Health Secretary RFK Jr.'s gauntlet of congressional hearings
In his testimony to various committees in the Senate and the House over multiple days, Kennedy was tasked with defending President Donald Trump’s proposed 2027 budget, which would boost defense spending while cutting more than 12% of funding from the Department of Health and Human Services.
Judge bars certification of Virginia redistricting results; state AG promises appeal
A congressional map approved by Virginia voters that aims to help Democrats net four US House seats in November’s midterms faces another legal hurdle just one day after its passage. Tazewell County Circuit Court Judge Jack Hurley on Wednesday ordered that the results of Tuesday’s vote not be certified on several grounds, including that state lawmakers did not follow their own rules in passing the redistricting referendum. State Attorney General Jay Jones said his office intends to immediately appeal Hurley’s Wednesday ruling. The fate of Virginia’s referendum was already before the state Supreme Court, which stayed a previous ruling by Hurley in the run-up to the referendum and allowed Tuesday’s vote to proceed before deciding the merits of that case.
Predictions Marketplace Fines Three Candidates for ‘Political Insider Trading’
One congressional hopeful said he had no plans to pay the fine: “I’ll take them to court if I have to.”
Virginia follows California, approves ballot measure to redistrict mid-decade
It’s been less than six months since California voters approved a new congressional map that could enable Democrats to flip as many as five House seats now held by Republicans. Now, Virginia is following the same playbook.
Senate eyes AI expansion for congressional business - Live Updates
The Senate’s top cybersecurity official is requesting a $2.8 million funding boost to support AI expansion.
Kalshi suspends 3 political candidates for betting on own races
Kalshi has suspended three political candidates for betting on their own races, the prediction market platform announced Wednesday. Minnesota congressional candidate and state Sen. Matt Klein (D) a…
Kalshi suspends 3 U.S. congressional candidates for ‘political insider trading’
WASHINGTON >> Prediction markets platform Kalshi said today it has suspended three U.S. congressional candidates for “political insider trading,” building on its efforts to block politicians and athletes from betting on contests in which they are involved.
Longtime Georgia Democrat US Rep. David Scott dies at 80
US Democratic Rep. David Scott, who represented Georgia’s 13th Congressional District, has died at 80 years old.
House Republican proposes small-business tax cut to pair with GOP federal budget package
Some congressional Republicans are hoping to tack on tax and other spending proposals to an effort to fully fund the Department of Homeland Security.
Virginia congressional map vote could embolden Florida Republicans to push for boundary changes, says Jeffries
House Democratic leader says result should serve as a warning to Ron DeSantis after latest blow to Donald Trump’s redistricting battle
RFK Jr. is on a congressional hearing blitz, after a long absence from Capitol Hill
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. caps off seven budget hearings in as many days, the first time he has testified before Congress since September.
Virginians approve Democratic map targeting 4 Republican congressional seats
Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a new Democratic-drawn congressional map that could flip four Republican U.S. House seats in November's midterm elections, U.S. media projected.
Virginia votes yes on proposed congressional redistricting, AP projects
Virginia voted to approve a plan to temporarily redraw the Commonwealth's 11 congressional districts ahead of November's midterm elections, the Associated Press projects.
Virginia voters back redistricting amendment after months of legal and political battles
Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade congressional redistricting, a move expected to dramatically reshape the state’s political map and potentially shift its congressional delegation from a closely divided 6-5 split to a heavily Democratic-leaning 10-1 advantage.
Virginia election: Live updates and results on major redistricting vote
A high-stakes battle over congressional maps takes place in Virginia. Follow live updates.
Responding to Today's Gaps for Tomorrow's Health Emergencies: 2026 Ready or Not Report
Join Trust for America’s Health (TFAH) for a Congressional Briefing and National Webinar on the latest information on public health emergency readiness and findings from TFAH’s upcoming report, Ready or Not 2026: Protecting the Public’s Health from Diseases, Disasters, and Bioterrorism – releasing May 7th. The past year alone saw the U.S. facing the most […]
On the Hill: Health Care Reauthorizations, Congressional Hearings
House leaders plan votes this week on reauthorizing rural health and telehealth programs, as well as a proposed directive on lung cancer research. Legislation to be taken up under suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority for passage, includes H.R. 2493, which would reauthorize rural health care grants through fiscal 2030, and has been unanimously approved by the House […]
Immigration and Kitchen Table Politics: Lessons from NJ-11
By: Nedia Morsy, Make the Road Action New Jersey, and Maegan Llerena, Make the Road Action As Analilia Mejia takes a victory lap in New Jersey’s 11th congressional district, her stunning win – first, a massive upset in February’s primary special election and then, a resounding win in this week’s general – can teach us[...]
Ben McAdams leads fundraising race for Utah’s new, blue congressional district by nearly $1M
Democrats have flocked to run in Utah's new 1st Congressional District race. Here's how much money they've raised so far.
Virginia voters to decide on new House map with major midterm implications
Virginia is the latest front in an unprecedented coast-to-coast redistricting war, with voters on Tuesday set to determine whether to accept or reject a Democratic plan to dramatically redraw the state’s congressional maps and help shape the midterm elections.
Virginia voters to decide whether to allow a new Democratic-drawn map for the midterms
A constitutional amendment is on the ballot Tuesday that would pave the way for Democrats to enact a congressional map that’s designed to net them up to four seats.
A workhorse emerges in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District?
Do we have a workhorse emerging from Colorado’s Third Congressional District? I’m not sure, but an interesting bit of legislation U.S. Rep. Jeff Hurd introduced is at least a bit suggestive that he just might be in Washington, D.C. to get work done, even if the cameras are not aimed his way. As my regular […]
Health care fight intensifies as Congress weighs GOP-backed insurance changes
Congressional Republicans say they are taking steps on health care — but Democrats counter that previous efforts are already costing Virginians coverage and putting hospitals under strain. Republicans have pointed to measures like the Rural Health Transformation Fund and an association health plan expansion bill that has cleared the House and is headed to the […]
Pinwheels and the ‘lobster district’: How Virginia Democrats drew up a US House map to all but lock out Republicans
Virginia Democrats hope the new congressional map they’re asking voters to approve Tuesday will flip four Republican House districts, delivering 10 of 11 seats in a state Vice President Kamala Harris won with just 52% of the vote in 2024. To do it, they want to dramatically rework entire sections of the state, slicing up deep blue districts in the Washington, DC, suburbs and around Richmond, and creating a new district running along the Blue Ridge Mountains that connects liberal cities. That’s required something called the “lobster district,” stretching from northern Virginia into two “pincers” grabbing up rural territory.
There's a new Republican congressman running in Butler County
Rep. Mike Turner is running for reelection in Ohio's 10th Congressional District, which will soon include parts of Butler County.
RFK Jr clashes with Dem lawmaker over Trump’s mental fitness in heated exchange
RFK Jr. defended Trump's mental health during a tense congressional hearing, rejecting calls for a fitness assessment or invoking the 25th Amendment.
Why some Virginia voters find redistricting ballot question confusing
When Donte Jiggetts first learned about the special election to determine whether Virginia will move forward with plans for new Congressional districts, he initially found the question confusing.
A special election in Virginia could have wider impact. Why it matters.
A congressional map is on the ballot in Virginia.
Science Committee Democratic Staff Report Reveals Details on NASA’s Illegal Implementation of Trump’s FY2026 Budget Request Without Congressional Approval
The House Committee on Science, Space and Technology
Peltola posts massive campaign fundraising, but Republicans maintain cash advantage in Alaska congressional races
In the Senate race, Mary Peltola raised close to $9 million in funds, but has less cash on hand than Dan Sullivan.
CFTC Chairman Says AI Helps Agency Run More Like a Business
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is using artificial intelligence to boost efficiency, CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig told a congressional
Health Subcommittee: The Fiscal Year 2027 Department of Health and Human Services Budget
The Committee on Energy and Commerce is the oldest standing legislative committee in the U.S. House of Representatives and is vested with the broadest jurisdiction of any congressional authorizing committee.
A vaccine standoff and other key moments from RFK Jr.'s first congressional hearing in months
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. defended a more than 12% proposed cut to his department's budget and dodged arrows from angry Democrats as he kicked off an expected sprint of seven hearings in Congress over the next seven days.
Former Pence aide turned Trump critic, Olivia Troye, launches congressional campaign as a Democrat
Live Results: New Jersey special congressional election to replace Mikie Sherrill
Residents of New Jersey's 11th Congressional District will have a representative in Congress for the first time this year after a special election on Thursday.
Republican Clay Fuller sworn in to take House seat formerly held by Marjorie Taylor Greene
Republican Rep. Clay Fuller of Georgia was sworn into office Tuesday after winning a special election to take the congressional seat formerly held by Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Chairman Griffith Delivers Opening Statement at Subcommittee on Health Legislative Hearing Discussing Solutions to Improve Public Health of Americans
The Committee on Energy and Commerce is the oldest standing legislative committee in the U.S. House of Representatives and is vested with the broadest jurisdiction of any congressional authorizing committee.
Congress Holocaust
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-Benton, speaks during a Congressional Gold Medal ceremony in honor of Benjamin Ferencz, at the Capitol, Tuesday, April 14, 2026, in Washington.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore falls short in bid to redraw congressional map to boost Democrats
A proposal for a new Maryland congressional map has officially died with the conclusion of the state's legislative session.
Democrats line up to run in Virginia congressional districts, even before voters approve them
Virginia voters are set to decide next week on a Democratic-drawn redistricting plan that could boost the party's chances in the U.S. House | TALK 980am
Former Pence adviser Olivia Troye runs for Congress as a Democrat
Troye, who resigned from the White House in 2020 and became a vocal critic of President Trump, will run in Virginia's redrawn 7th Congressional District, which is Democratic-friendly.
Gov. Wes Moore falls short in push to redraw Maryland's congressional map to boost Democrats
A proposal for a new Maryland congressional map has officially died with the conclusion of the state’s legislative session
Congressional candidate Jack Schlossberg thinks Democrats need a makeover
He told NY1 that thinks he can come out on top of a crowded Democratic primary field to represent parts of Manhattan.
Political newcomer running for Rep. Golden's seat in US House
At 29 years old, Paige Loud is the youngest candidate in the Democratic primary race for Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
Donalds says FL should counter Democrats by redistricting. That’s illegal here
Byron Donalds said “Florida needs to respond” to Virginia by redrawing Congressional districts, but partisan gerrymandering is barred here.
The Iran war may be on pause but the political fallout is not
The political consequences for President Trump and congressional Republicans are far from over.
How we reported on KY's 4th Congressional District, Massie, and Trump
How The Enquirer reported on the Massie-Gallrein race throughout the congressional district.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
For aging Supreme Court justices, the politics of retirement looms large
Discussion among experts about a possible Supreme Court vacancy has increased as two men draw closer to the average age of retirement for Supreme Court justices since 2000 and with the November congressional elections looming.
A longshot, upset bid and a few quick takes
It is hard to keep up these days. The flow of news often seems overwhelming. Let’s focus today on an unusual congressional race before moving on to a few quick, supplementary observations. Since its creation 54 years ago, Congressional District 5 has been represented by a grand total of five people – Bill Armstrong, Ken […]
Texas House committee slaps Democrats with nearly $422K in penalties for 2025 quorum break
The Committee on House Administration voted along party lines to fine 50-plus Democratic members more than $8,000 apiece for fleeing the state to try to block a GOP-led congressional redistricting plan.
Accusation of sexual assault threatens Swalwell governor bid
The Democrat running for governor categorically denied any misconduct involving congressional staffers. Then the San Francisco Chronicle published an article quoting an alleged victim.
Democrats blast coming congressional redistricting session: ‘This is illegal’
For now, Republicans are pushing forward.
In this era of political violence, candidate security costs are higher, new report says
Security spending for congressional and presidential campaigns has jumped fivefold over the past decade as an increasingly hostile political environment has led to escalating threats against public officials, ranging from doxing to assassination plots, according to a report released Thursday.
Abortion Pill’s Safety Called into Question in Congressional Actions Based on Misleading Data — The Monitor
False claims about the safety of mifepristone are driving legislative and investigative action in Congress, even as major medical organizations and decades of clinical evidence support the drug’s safety. And competing interpretations of what censorship and free speech mean are impacting how health misinformation is moderated.
Hector Mujica: Why I'm taking the fight to Florida's 28th Congressional District
Senate bid ends as campaign shifts focus to winnable House race
Health Subcommittee: Healthier America: Legislative Proposals to Improve Public Health
The Committee on Energy and Commerce is the oldest standing legislative committee in the U.S. House of Representatives and is vested with the broadest jurisdiction of any congressional authorizing committee.