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A Florida pastor is suing OpenAI over ChatGPT health advice that nearly killed him
Scott Winters claims ChatGPT discouraged him from seeking care for six weeks as blood clots developed, exploiting his religious beliefs along the way
BP to sell 250-site Austrian c-store business
About 115 of the c-stores are company owned and franchise operated, with others either run by dealers or unstaffed company-owned sites.
Senate Health Committee Votes on CDC, HHS, and Labor Nominations
The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee meets in executive session to vote on Erica Schwartz to be director of the CDC, Sean Kaufman to be Health and Human Services assistant secretary, and Keith Sonderling to be secretary of Labor.
Trump to steer billions from universities to AI and individual scientists
White House says overhaul will back AI and researchers to restore the US scientific edge as Beijing closes the innovation gap.
History suggests San Francisco homeowners will win big from the AI gold rush
San Francisco's last three booms handed large gains to property owners. The windfall from coming IPOs could cause an even bigger transfer of wealth
‘Monetary transmission channels are themselves evolving’
Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
Arizona Cardinals sign Carson Beck to rookie contract
The Arizona Cardinals sign their rookie quarterback.
As expected, Seahawks place Zach Charbonnet on PUP list
Charbonnet to PUP was always a formality.
US politicians pitch aviation, space business at Farnborough Airshow
The U.S. boosted the size of its pavilion at the Farnborough Airshow by 22% this year, and U.S. politicians were out in force, vying with European rivals for investment from aerospace, defence, and space companies as the industries boom.
Y! Sports Biz: Time to take the cap off?
The search for answers in college sports continues.
From Paper to Action: How Systematic Monitoring Can Help Health Benefits Packages Deliver on Their Promise
Health Benefits Packages (HBPs) can be a strategic tool to advance Universal Health Coverage. But their impact depends not only on the services included, but also on whether people effectively receive those services with adequate quality and financial protection. It also depends on the factors behind implementation gaps. While there is no shortage of guidance for using evidence-informed priority-setting approaches, less attention has been paid to monitoring whether, how, and why HBPs deliver (or not) in the real world. This gap matters, particularly in the context of stagnating progress towards Universal Health Coverage, because it leaves policymakers in the dark: Are HBPs delivering on the promise made to the population? If not, why, and what corrective action can be taken?
CVS is now filling pet prescriptions at its 9,000 pharmacies nationwide
The pharmacy chain will dispense select medications for dogs and cats, including antibiotics, insulin, and flea and tick treatments
Patriots training camp preview: Running backs searching for efficiency
Taking a closer look at New England’s backfield entering training camp.
Heat confirm the LeBron James introductory press conference YouTube video was published accidentally after latest rumors
Mamdani's commission unveils five ballot proposals on improving government
The questions range from speeding up the construction of bike and bus lanes to establishing a savings target for the city's rainy day fund.
Eagles' Nick Sirianni Reportedly Facing 'Scrutiny' Next Season
As I've said many times now, the Philadelphia Eagles are an organization that's built on winning.
Florida Gators Legend Tim Tebow Makes Major Career Move
Former Florida Gators superstar quarterback Tim Tebow has made a major move in his career.
6 teens arrested after employee attacked inside Rochester business
Six people, including five juveniles, were arrested after a fight inside a business on East Main Street on Tuesday morning, according to the Rochester Police Department.
ESPN to reportedly lay off Tom Pelissero, Karl Ravech
Karl Ravech joined ESPN back in 1993.
Wildwood Tattoo Beach Bash will bring live tattooing, entertainment and competitions to the Jersey Shore
The three-day event will take over the Wildwoods Convention Center from Aug. 7-9 with tattoo artists, vendors and opportunities to get inked on-site.
Steam Deck sales tanked after Valve increased the price, latest estimates suggest decline of more than 75%
A new report suggests that Steam Deck sales have dropped significantly following Valve's price increase due to industry shortages.
LPI Scientists Honored with Asteroid Naming by the IAU
The International Astronomical Union (IAU) has recognized the scientific achievements of Universities Space Research Association (USRA) scientists Dr. Imene Kerraouch and Dr. Allison McGraw by naming asteroids (20452) Kerraouch and (20092) Allisonmcgraw in their honor.
Beyond weight loss: Lilly aims for leadership in brain science
Lilly’s neuroscience chief discusses the large pharma’s aims in brain science, and how diagnostics and dosing are driving its next advancements in Alzheimer’s.
A quarter-century of baseball, hoops — and scaling walls of ice? Denver Sports Commission celebrates 25 years
The group responsible for bringing sporting events to Colorado says there’s more fun on the horizon.
UFC Freedom 250 Fails to Knock Out The Ratings
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) If UFC fans wanted one image to say, “Hey, Paramount+ is crushing it with their UFC rights deal,” I could provide that image. Here it is: (Reminder: this is my creation of the Nielsen Top 30, since Nielsen doesn’t combine the lists or include sports. I take all three lists and combine them. Some streaming TV shows probably have higher ratings than many of the films on this list.) Look at that! UFC Freedom 250 is number one! It topped the Nielsen “Top 30” list for shows and films that made the top ten the week of 15-June. So if you’re a UFC fan or supporter of Paramount+, that’s the good news for you this week. This program topped the ratings charts for one week. Everything else is bad news, or at least a huge caveat to that story, which I’ll explain today in the first part of this week’s Streaming Ratings Report—for the weeks of 8-June and 15-June—which is a double issue since I’ve been writing on a bunch of topics recently. UFC Freedom 250 is one of the biggest streaming events of the year, and super relevant to Paramount+’s strategy, so it merited its own article. Let’s dive in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of June 8th to June 21st 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Check Out My Interview on UFC 250 at MMA Draw After you read this article, if you want even more thoughts on UFC and Paramount-Skydance/Paramount+, I did a written interview with MMA Draw. They asked me to answer some questions about UFC Freedom 250, and I was happy to chat with them. Find it here: [ The MMA Draw Newsletter Did Paramount really overpay for the UFC? What the data tells us so far If you know the history of American television, you also know that combat sports is often a leading indicator of the future… Read more a day ago · 10 likes · 1 comment · Nate Wilcox and Zach Arnold ](https://www.themmadraw.com/p/did-paramount-really-overpay-for?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) I never thought I’d need a combat sports newsletter in my life, but the good folks at MMA Draw publish an excellent one on UFC, MMA, pro wrestling, boxing and more, analyzing both the sports themselves and the politics, economics and antitrust issues that impact them. Check the article and their newsletter out! Paramount+ Has Its Best Sporting Event of All Time…But Was It Worth It? Before we look at the UFC Freedom 250 data in particular, let’s talk about what we can’t say. Namely, let’s start with the lack of comparisons. First off, I’d love to put a chart out comparing this fight to past UFC fights on Paramount+…but we don’t have the data. This is the first time we’ve gotten Nielsen data about a Paramount+ UFC fight. As far as I can tell, Paramount provided data for the first fight, but it was a proprietary datecdote (saying it had “an average minute audience” of 5 million “views”) and then, for two fights, we got the linear viewership numbers when they aired on CBS, but no streaming data. Everything else was crickets. We also can’t compare this fight to other fights/combat sports on streaming, in particular the MMA and boxing, because Netflix also didn’t use Nielsen to track those events, opting for TVision and VideoAmp, respectively. (This isn’t Paramount’s fault, but does still suck.) We also can’t compare to UFC’s fights that used to be on ESPN+, since we don’t have any data for that, plus Disney+ didn’t have marquee fights. The comparisons would not be apples-to-apples. Can we compare to past Pay-Per-View fights? Absolutely not. The comparisons would absolutely NOT be apples-to-apples. That didn’t stop Paramount+, though, who bragged that their UFC events have reached drastically more people than past PPV fights. Duh. Sorry, but I gotta make this point again. A basic tenet of economics is that the cheaper something becomes, the more people consume or buy it. That’s Econ 101. (Sometimes pundits call things “Econ 101” that are actually like Econ 210 or even PhD-level economics, but no, this is really like first or second class basic economics.) Yet I still see one analytics firm consistently say that more people watch films on streaming than PVOD proves streaming which means that the streaming window is more valuable than the PVOD window. No, it’s not! Same thing here. Pay-Per-View events back in the day could be really, really, really expensive! So whole groups of people pitched in to buy them. That increased the perceived value of, say, the Mike Tyson fight. Or a UFC numbered event. So yes, the fact that Paramount+ makes numbered UFC fights essentially “free” if you’re already a Paramount+ member means consumption will go up. Obviously. Same for Netflix and their boxing matches. They’re talking about fights that used to cost consumers, in some cases, $50 in 1996…which is over $100 in today’s dollars. Over 1.6 million people paid that to watch the Tyson-Holyfield fight! Again, streaming is essentially “free”. Or $10 to $20, depending on what streamer we’re talking about and what tier you’re on. No wonder more people are “watching”. (Plus, Nielsen’s out-of-home viewing also helps these numbers.) UFC Freedom 250 Did Well…But I Have A Lot of Worries So what can we compare the fights to? Well, the good news is Nielsen put out that the fight averaged 7.0 million viewers for UFC Freedom 250, which is a solid number for a fight. We also know the length, at roughly 4 and a half hours. (I saw different run times, but this seems to be the consensus considering it started at 8 pm, had a delay and then finished after midnight on the East Coast. If you assume a shorter run time, then yes, the total hours viewed would go down.) That means I have the two numbers needed to add this to my Nielsen database. And then…I can compare this viewership to the NFL: And, uh, not great. But also within striking distance, mainly because the runtime for this event was so long. I’d also add that this event had viewership equal to a regular season NFL game on streaming, but if anything, it was more comparable to an NFL playoff or Super Bowl-esque event. And you can compare viewership to the top football games on broadcast, cable and streaming, and it’s not impressive at all: We can also compare it to other sports that week, including the NBA Finals and start of the World Cup: Again, not great. The NBA generated roughly four times as many average viewers each game for its NBA Finals. The World Cup has similarly big numbers. Also, that’s just a tiny fraction of the 25 most watched sporting events each week. The NBA, NHL and FIFA World Cup had many, many more games racking up hours. We could also compare this to other streaming programs to get an idea of “is this a good investment?” and here is how it ranks compared to other top Paramount+ programs: The worry here? Well, unlike scripted programming, which has rewatchability, older fights/sporting events have very little library value. Very, very few people are rewatching these fights, especially years from now. Paramount has also released datecdotes bragging about their subscriber numbers. Earlier this year, they claimed that the first UFC fight on Paramount+ brought in 1 million subscribers. Then, in their quarterly earnings report, they only ended up with 700K subs. Not great! They claimed they dropped lower-value international subscribers, but that’s why I tend to discount subscriber additions when they’re leaked to the press.1 I expect we may see a bump again for UFC Freedom 250, but I’d caution using subscriber growth so soon after these events to judge the success, since new subs with high churn (see Peacock) aren’t great either. Also, analysts often want to attribute all subscriber growth to their favorite/pet show, and that just doesn’t make sense. The biggest caveat for UFC Freedom 250 and Paramount’s very first UFC marquee event is that these could be high watermarks for the sport. UFC Freedom 250 had an incredible amount of earned media coverage compared to most UFC fights. I mean, it had wall-to-wall national news coverage in the lead up to the event. (The first fight also had a lot of promotion from Paramount since it was first.) Other fights could reach this bar—say the Conor McGregor return to the Octagon—but they’ll be fewer and far between. Was This Deal Worth It? All to ask: is this Paramount deal worth it? In this case, I think the UFC Freedom 250 numbers are more distracting than helpful. This fight did well and compares well to other top sporting events. But we know that the first marquee event was at least a third smaller, if Paramount’s own data is to be believed. And it’s likely the other fights are much, much, much smaller. And then you get to the paycheck that Paramount-Skydance paid. FIFA’s World Cup cost about the same for Fox, but clearly generated multiples more total viewership. (Though it’s only every four years.) The NBA is much more expensive, but until the playoffs, they likely didn’t pay for itself. Even still, Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon Prime Video likely overpaid. So, in that context, the NBA may be an overpay that makes the UFC look not so bad. But two overpays don’t make an underpay, to paraphrase the old cliché about wrongs and rights. And looking at UFC Freedom 250 as the likely ceiling of MMA on Paramount+, Paramount-Skydance likely paid too much. Share 1 I would love regular reports on subscriber additions by programs, but as is, it’s mostly leaked or rumored in haphazard ways.
Bill Gates heads to Africa's cleanest country to learn about its health success story and discuss its $50 million plan
One of the world’s richest men, Bill Gates, is heading to Rwanda to get a glimpse of the progress the Eastern African country has made regarding its health sector
Health Brief: The grants showdown
The administration loses a key grants case, even as it presses ahead with a broader rewrite of federal funding rules.
Mets, Phillies announcers can’t believe mid-play sunglasses move
A pet peeve of many baseball viewers is when a defensive player has their sunglasses on their hat, rather than over their eyes, when the sun is out. And during Sunday’s game against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia Phillies rookie outfielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. did put on his sunglasses, but he…
You can still get into Morgan Wallen’s Michigan Stadium shows for under $130
The country star brings his "Still the Problem Tour" to Ann Arbor for two nights on July 24 and 25.
Pokémon TCG: Pitch Black ETBs and Booster Bundles Are Back in Stock at Amazon — Snap These Up ASAP For Fast Easy Delivery
Amazon has finally restocked the Pokémon TCG: Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box and booster sets. Get the breakdown on pricing, set list details, and chase cards here.
Check Out the Top Five Cards from Mega Evolution—Pitch Black
Find out why this Pokémon TCG expert thinks Mega Excadrill ex, Hide ’n’ Sneak, and even Slowbro will make an impact on the Standard format.
Cinema Operator AMC Entertainment Rides the Box Office Boom
AMC shares surged after Q2 results beat expectations, with record $321 million adjusted EBITDA, higher attendance and strong box office growth.
Nevada: Accel Entertainment reaches route agreement with Green Valley Grocery
Accel Entertainment on Monday announced that its subsidiary, Century Gaming Technologies Nevada, has entered into a route agreement with Green Valley Grocery co
AMC Entertainment posted record revenue and a surprise profit as blockbusters packed theaters
The theater chain beat Wall Street estimates on both revenue and earnings as attendance climbed in the U.S. and Europe
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Media and entertainment commissioner talks new vertical video film festival
Watch the full interview here.
Voices: A trade fight in Washington will hurt Utah homeowners — and small Utah businesses like mine
“This is about more than countertops,” Steven B. Lloyd writes in an op-ed. “It is about keeping the American dream of homeownership and home improvement within reach while preserving small businesses.”
Breitling Launches A Top Time Trio Paying Tribute To The Aston Martin DB5
✓ Breitling introduces three Top Time B01 Chronograph Limited Editions ✓ Paying tribute to the Aston Martin DB5 ✓ Check them out here! ✓
AMC Entertainment delivers record Q2 results as summer releases boost results
AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC) shares rose 11% after the movie theater chain reported second-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations,...
Where Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster is now after it was launched into space and caused amateur astronomer to panic
Where is the Tesla Roadster that was launched into space? It caused one amateur astronomer to panic, but should we be worried about its current whereabouts?
WAIC explainer: What is AI for Science?
What if artificial intelligence (AI) could help scientists make discoveries never before imagined?That's one of the themes at this year's World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai. It's called AI for Science. Simply put, it means using
Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire welcomes defined pay-for-play rules governing NIL
In an exclusive conversation with USA TODAY, Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire - his program no stranger to spending - says he welcomes real rules for all
Atlanta Falcons Could Solve WR Depth by Signing Deebo Samuel
Could Deebo Samuel be the missing piece for the Atlanta Falcons? With questions behind Drake London at wide receiver, the veteran playmaker could give Kevin Stefanski's offense proven production, versatility, and another weapon as Atlanta pushes to end its playoff drought.
Even scientists need a doctor sometimes. Colorado physician makes house call to Greenland.
The CU doctor was there for checkups on researchers working at the cold and icy Summit Station.
Fake spa listings use real Jackson-area business addresses to scam customers
The fake listings also include multiple five-star reviews in the comments.
Spain wins 2026 FIFA World Cup; Hartford fans pack Trinity Health Stadium watch party
Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup, scoring one goal against Argentina in extra time to cap off a final that went scoreless through regulation.
England's huge World Cup payday revealed after France victory
The Three Lions secured a major payday after defeating France in a thrilling third-place playoff
Michael Harris II's Breakout Is Confirmed Two Ways, Not One
Fresh off the All-Star break, Michael Harris II went full highlight reel this weekend. If you're a Harris owner, you might expect another hot half, but you might be better off treating this weekend as a stepping-off point to trade for a more reliable asset. Statcast, always a downer, is a lot less impressed than conventional wisdom.
Critical NGINX Vulnerability Can Crash Workers and May Allow Remote Code Execution
F5 patches CVE-2026-42533, a regex map heap overflow that crashes nginx workers and may allow RCE in specific configurations.
Virginia: Rivers Casino wants to be the ‘entertainment capital of Hampton Roads’
It’s hard not to look. Digital screens on rows of slot machines, hundreds of them, are twice the size of iPads and three times as bright. Shapes, cowboys, lemon
WCG Dynasty Fantasy Football: Assessing Kev H’s Roster
Let’s continue assessing rosters in the WCG Dynasty Fantasy Football League, today is Kev H who needs to work on his rebuild.
What TV channel is the World Cup on today?
The final match of the World Cup takes place Sunday in New Jersey.
Nesbitt may face lengthy Falkirk absence
Falkirk manager John McGlynn fears midfielder Aidan Nesbitt may be out for 12 weeks. Nesbitt, 29, came off after 12 minutes of Falkirk's opening Premier Sports Cup win at Edinburgh City. The Bairns then lost to Ayr United and are still to play Alloa Athletic and Stranraer.
Makai Lemon says he'll be 100 percent for training camp after missing some offseason work
Tempo coach Sandy Brondello suspended 1 game by WNBA for 'protected species' remark about Angel Reese
Anthony Rizzo gets home run ball in Wrigley Field bleachers as Cubs commemorate 2016 World Series champs
'A dangerous proposition': How AI is warping the social fabric and the ways we collectively imagine the future
In this excerpt from "Predicted: How AI Is Restructuring Social Life," author Mona Sloane examines how artificial intelligence is reconfiguring our understanding of the world and how we imagine the future.
US man drives a 1,000HP Batmobile in public and it goes exactly as you'd expect
It's no surprise that this man was turning heads when he was driving a Batmobile in public
Colts training camp battle early preview: Kicker
This is arguably the closest and most interesting Colts training camp positional battle.
England’s incoming PM is getting down to business
Andy Burnham is faced with the difficult task of reigniting the country's economy
The Open Championship: Bryson DeChambeau hit with 2-shot penalty Friday after reaching solo 2nd in wild, heated turn at Royal Birkdale
Bryson DeChambeau got into a very, very heated discussion with officials after his round on Friday.
Man with staggering $20 billion net worth put a car order in so big that Mercedes had to shut down its factory
The 'Rainbow Sheikh' has a staggering $20 billion net worth and once put in a car order that was so big, it shut down manufacturing at a Mercedes factory
Not All Scientific Papers Advance Science
This article was first published in The Montreal Gazette. Research is the engine of science. But that engine should not be idling, it should be steadily propelling science forward. The extent of that
20 places on Earth that scientists still can't fully explain
From a Himalayan lake whose DNA results deepened its own mystery to a Siberian blast that still defies full explanation, these are 20 real places science hasn't fully cracked
Music icon known for launching legendary band dead at 83: ‘Architect of southern rock’
He worked with some of music's most iconic figures.
Lexington bakery finds new owners after struggle to sell business
Bluegrass Baking Company, a bakery local to Lexington, has officially been sold to new owners, according to the Lexington Herald-Leader.
Latvia in talks with strategic investor for ailing airBaltic, PM says
The Latvian government is negotiating with a strategic investor for struggling state-controlled airBaltic, Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs told Reuters, as the carrier seeks to shore up its finances and avert the risk of a default.
AMC Entertainment Gears Up For Q2 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Acc
AMC (NYSE: AMC) to release Q2 earnings on July 20 before opening bell. Expected loss of 6c/share and revenue of $1.46B.
Amateur astronomer spotted the Tesla Roadster Elon Musk launched in space and what he saw caused a bit of panic
An amateur astronomer spotted the Tesla Roadster that Elon Musk sent into space aboard a SpaceX rocket, and a tiny mistake led to a moment of massive panic
Rock music pioneer known for discovering legendary band dead at 83
He had been in hospice for several weeks.
Jon Jones Reacts to Conor McGregor’s UFC 329 Loss
UFC legend Jon Jones shared his reaction after Conor McGregor lost in the first round of his UFC 329 fight against Max Holloway.McGregor lost via first-round TKO when he buckled his knee against Holloway in the UFC 329 main event. Following the event, many fighters have shared their thoughts on what is arguably the most […] The post Jon Jones Reacts to Conor McGregor’s UFC 329 Loss appeared first on HEAVY.
Admin. Officials, Energy Industry Execs. & Business Leaders Attend Iraq Business Summit
Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi join administration officials, energy industry stakeholders and business leaders at the U.S.-Iraq High-Level Business Summit hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington, DC.
Women’s Health Week report shows equity investments increased 41% in 2025
Women’s Health Week report shows equity investments increased 41% in 2025
House Subcommittee to Examine Prediction Market Protections
Congress examines consumer protections in unregulated sports prediction markets. House hearing addresses market integrity and regulatory gaps. Learn more.
CGC hoping three iconic sports cards can shift perceptions in PSA-dominated grading landscape
As the last remaining sizable competitor to grading giant PSA, CGC is trying to make further inroads with sports card collectors.
New ClickLock macOS Stealer Kills Apps Every 210ms Until Victims Type Their Password
ClickLock Stealer kills macOS apps every 210 milliseconds until victims enter a password, then steals browser credentials, cookies, wallets, and Keych
Large funding rounds help boost digital health investment in H1
Venture capital funding deals worth $100 million or more made up nearly half of all money invested so far this year, according to Rock Health.
Conor McGregor Says Max Holloway Fight Should Be No Contest
UFC superstar Conor McGregor says that the result of his fight against Max Holloway at UFC 329 should be overturned to a No Contest.McGregor was stopped just 69 seconds into the main event of UFC 329 when his knee gave out on him, and referee Mike Beltran stepped in and called an end to the […] The post Conor McGregor Says Max Holloway Fight Should Be No Contest appeared first on HEAVY.
Secy. Marco Rubio Hosts Summit on Political Terrorism
Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts a summit at the State Department addressing political terrorism.
5 of 10 questions policy researchers—and all healthcare stakeholders—should be asking this year and next
In healthcare policymaking, priorities are like flaming swords to a circus juggler. It’s easy to take on one too many—and overlook the overreach until a burn or laceration halts the show. The word picture is suggested between the lines of a peer-reviewed paper published this month.
Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution—Pitch Black Is Now Available in Pokémon TCG Live
The Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution—Pitch Black debut includes new Battle Pass decks and more.
Alexis Mac Allister and Argentina Heading to World Cup Final
With Victor Muñoz in the squad for opponents Spain, Liverpool are guaranteed a World Cup winner in 2026.
See more images of unidentifiable Tom Cruise as his ‘Digger’ character
Tom Cruise graced the cover of TIME Magazine (kind of) to share a closer look at his radical transformation in ‘Digger.’
Experts Debate How MAHA Is Reshaping Food Science and Regulation
Experts at IFT FIRST examined how the MAHA movement is influencing food regulation, ingredient reformulation, consumer expectations, and food science.
League of Legends patch 26.14 is rolling out optional parental tools to enhance "child safety"
League of Legends patch 26.14 goes live on July 15, rolling out new ways for parents to have control over their kid's Riot Games accounts.
“Worse Long-Term Outcome” – Sports Medicine Doctor Has Grim Prognosis of Conor McGregor’s Recovery After Upcoming Surgery
Conor McGregoris preparing for yet another major surgery after blowing out his knee at UFC 329 against Max Holloway. On X, ‘The Notorious’ confirmed that a grueling medical procedure is on the horizon, with subsequent reports also revealing that he is scheduled to undergo an MRI soon.
Drake Lindsey Mocked to Vikings in Recent Mock Draft
Should the Vikings consider Drake Lindsey next April?
Valve is “starting to sunset” replacement Steam Deck batteries, says iFixit, as it turns attention to alternatives
iFixit recently revealed to a customer that it is unlikely to receive more OEM Steam Deck LCD batteries from Valve moving forward.
Another New Prediction Says Colts Trade Anthony Richardson Sr.
Everyone seems to be waiting for the other shoe to drop in the Indianapolis Colts' Anthony Richardson Sr. saga.
The Mac Speaks: ‘We’ll Be Back!‘
Don’t give up hope on Conor McGregor just yet. For the first time since his disastrous UFC 329 leg injury (not the broken leg from five years ago) suffered versus Max Holloway, McGregor has gotten in front of a camera and addressed fans directly. On his 38th birthday, McGregor shares a sip of his energy […]
Israel Adesanya Plays Matchmaker for Conor McGregor’s Return
UFC Hall of Famer Israel Adesanya played matchmaker for Conor McGregor’s return fight when he recovers from his knee injury.McGregor’s comeback to the UFC after five years away from the Octagon lasted just 69 seconds when he lost via injury TKO due to a knee injury in his UFC 329 main event bout against Max […] The post Israel Adesanya Plays Matchmaker for Conor McGregor’s Return appeared first on HEAVY.
FTO designation exposes compliance gaps in Brazil’s entertainment sector
Following a domestic money-laundering probe that linked funk artists to Brazilian criminal groups and the subsequent US designation of two cartels as terrorist organisations, Brazilian legal practitioners tell Latin Lawyer they are updating sanctions-screening systems for entertainment-industry clients, reassessing their own onboarding processes for artists and producers and reaching out to Mexican peers for guidance on managing the fallout.
Olivia Wilde shares Sam Rockwell’s ingenious trick for nailing auditions
Sam Rockwell had a brilliant trick for acing auditions before he became a big star, and he revealed the secret to Olivia Wilde when they worked on on ‘Cowboys & Aliens.’
Communicating Science in a Skeptical World
Food science leaders at IFT FIRST explain how empathy, storytelling, and social media can counter misinformation and build trust in food innovation.
An ICE Shooting in Maine Puts Pressure on Senator Susan Collins
The Democrats hoping to challenge Ms. Collins, a vulnerable Republican, have seized on the fatal incident, drawing attention to her record on immigration matters.