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Behavioral health providers protest at CareSource handling of overpayments
Dozens of mental health professionals and social workers protested outside of the CareSource office building in response to the company’s recent decision to seek repayments from behavioral health providers going back up to two years.
Media Recap: Behavioral Health and Drug Manufacturer Pressures
Adam Carlson, senior vice president of Advocacy, MHA, joined J.J. Hodshire, president and chief executive officer, Hillsdale Hospital, for a press conference April 17 to discuss how proposed cuts to Medicaid will further destabilize hospitals already experiencing financial strain.
Breaking the Cycle: Behavioral Health Diversion Strategies for Counties
This interactive fireside chat brings together county leaders and behavioral health experts to explore how communities are building the diversion infrastructure to change outcomes.
Behavioral Health Is Health Care
AHA members are working every day to expand behavioral health access, integrate care, strengthen the workforce and reduce stigma, often while navigating limited resources and outdated systems that have not kept pace with need.
Senate Introduces Legislation on Behavioral Health Transport Vehicles
Michigan's behavioral health system has long faced a critical transportation gap — and the MHA is supporting efforts to close it.
Birds in Cities Fear Women More Than Men and Scientists Don’t Know Why
A small but consistent difference in how birds respond to approaching humans hints at hidden cues shaping animal behavior.
Integrated Counselors: Bringing mental health to the physical world - Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma
Choctaw Nation Behavioral Health provides integrated counselors in clinic settings to support patients experiencing emotional distress, difficult diagnoses, or needing support during medical visits.
Students award $10,000 to local mental health nonprofits
Students in the spring semester Philanthropy and Leadership MNGT 411 course at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln College of Business awarded $10,000 in grants through the Strive to Thrive Lincoln project to two nonprofits supporting mental and behavioral health in Lincoln — HopeSpoke and Lutheran Family Services.
Opinion: Betting on politics hinders legitimate civic engagement
Platform Kalshi allows users to bet on politics, pop culture and global events. Our columnist warns this normalizes gambling habits that raise serious ethical risks for society and civic behavior.
Indianapolis public health office mismanaged oversight of most contracts, audit finds
The city’s public health office, established in 2016, oversees programs focused on homelessness, violence reduction and behavioral health.
Lawmakers urged by AHA to support key health initiatives in FY 2027 appropriations bill
The AHA April 29 urged House and Senate appropriations committee leaders to fund health care programs that have been successful in improving access to care for patients and communities nationwide, as the committee begins drafting the fiscal year 2027 appropriations bills. The AHA encouraged Congress to support various programs focusing on the health care workforce, maternal and child health, rural health, disaster preparedness, medical research and behavioral health. Additionally, the AHA urged legislators to include specific bill language that would bar the use of funds for the implementation of a 340B Rebate Model Program at the Department of Health and Human Services.
Earth is splitting open beneath the Pacific Northwest, scientists say
For the first time, scientists have watched a subduction zone literally fall apart beneath the ocean floor. Using advanced seismic imaging, they found the Juan de Fuca plate splitting into fragments as it sinks beneath North America. Rather than collapsing all at once, the plate is tearing piece by piece, like a train slowly derailing. The finding helps explain ancient plate fragments and could refine how scientists understand earthquake behavior.
Business Professor Engages Students in Real-World Research on Supply Chains and Human Behavior
Jianliang Hao has built a strong record of impactful research and teaching since 2021, publishing in top-tier journals and engaging students through applied learning. His work connects real-world challenges with data-driven insights, advancing both student success and societal impact.
Research Notes: How Sports-Related Gambling Advertisements Impact Gambling Behavior
The online gambling industry is rapidly expanding, including in Arkansas, and spurring a flood of marketing. This post looks at the findings of a study on the impacts of sports-related gambling ads on gambling behaviors and considers policy insights for Arkansas.
Scientists catch antimatter “atom” acting like a wave for the first time
Quantum physics once shocked scientists by revealing that particles can behave like waves—and now, that strange behavior has been pushed even further. For the first time, researchers have observed wave-like interference in positronium, an exotic “atom” made of an electron and its antimatter partner, a positron. This breakthrough not only strengthens the weird reality of quantum mechanics but also opens the door to new experiments involving antimatter, including the possibility of testing how gravity affects it—something never directly measured before.
Convicted sex offender escapes mental health facility
“He has documented violent behavior and should be considered dangerous,” the Huntington Police Department said in a release.
Brain Health Across the Life Span: A Framework for Future Studies
This Scientific Statement focuses on the role of nonvascular physical and psychological factors that impact brain health, which is described as the optimal functioning of the brain across cognitive, emotional and behavioral domains throughout life.
Vanderbilt Health clinicians seek to improve care for those with traumatic brain injuries
CBIS training covers the cognitive, psychological and social consequences of brain injury; behavioral approaches for managing challenging behaviors and promoting positive skills; and techniques for effectively working with families of individuals with brain injury.
Advancing mental health and SUD parity—from promise to practice
A powerful new tool will help close the persistent gap in access to and payment for behavioral care relative to physical health services.
Made in Tarrant: Community clinic brings behavioral health services to east Fort Worth
Editor’s note: Made in Tarrant is an occasional Q&A series on small businesses started in Tarrant County. Submit your business here. Khadijah
Why playing is no laughing matter for otters
Play behavior is not all 'marshmallow science,' and more play can equal better health.
Youtility Decision Science: $4.2 Million Raised To Build Behavioral AI Platform For Predicting Customer Decisions
Youtility Decision Science, a behavioral AI company focused on understanding and predicting consumer decision-making, announced that it has completed the second close of its seed funding round, bringing total capital raised to $4.2 million. The round was backed by a consortium of strategic investors, including Silver Falcon Capital, Fyllo, and National Media, along with additional industry investors and family offices.
Behavioral health urgent care set to open in Robeson County
The facility will be open 24 hours a day to help patients who are experiencing a mental health or substance misuse crisis.
Behavioral Health Services North expanding workforce through Glens Falls job fair
We're on the heels of May, which is Mental Health Awareness Month.
Notice of Partial Cancellation: Behavioral Health Services Act-Funded Program Services RFP
Notice is hereby given that a portion of the above-referenced Request for Proposals (RFP) is being cancelled, in accordance with County’s reservation of rights under Part 5, Section I.C of the RFP. Specifically: the scope of services under the RFP is being reduced, to eliminate Category 1.4 – Family and Client Education & Support Program as found in Attachment G (BHSA-Funded Program Descriptions and Allocations) of the RFP.
State agency plagued with leadership turnover hired deputy commissioner accused of taking $99K from Colorado nonprofit
The former regional executive director of CASA of Adams and Broomfield counties was hired by the state Behavioral Health Administration in November
Ryan Backer joins Essentia Health-South University Clinic to practice behavioral health
The Essentia Health-South University Clinic is excited to welcome Ryan Backer, an advanced practice registered nurse and certified nurse practitioner in behavioral health.
FSU neuroscientist earns national award for research on taste and eating behavior
A Florida State University neuroscientist has earned a national award for research on gustation, the scientific term for the sense of taste, and how it
Youtility Decision Science Raises Seed Funding for Decision Science Platform That Predicts Customer Behavior
Strategic investment from a consortium including Silver Falcon Capital, Fyllo and National Media supports development of behavioral AI technology designed to help companies understand and predict customer decisionsRICHMOND, Va. and LONDON, April 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Youtility, a pioneer in behavioral AI for consumer engagement focused on why consumers make decisions, today announced the second close of its seed round, bringing total funding to $4.2M. The round was supported by a consorti
Anderson youth center project that won $25M grant cancelled
A planned youth behavioral health center in Anderson has been abandoned after community concerns, a key partner announced.
Brain to behavior to belief: Stanford Veritas Forum advocates role of science and faith in a fulfilled life
Arthur Brooks and Andrew Huberman shared the science behind fulfillment and how their Christian faith has played a role in their pursuit of happiness.
'Catastrophic' | Ohio mental health providers sound alarm over CareSource Medicaid payment clawbacks
CareSource said such adjustments are standard when payment issues are discovered. But many behavioral health providers say the combination of rate cuts and retroactive clawbacks is unprecedented.
Meeting people where they are: Santa Ana launches street medicine program
The program allows eligible CalOptima members experiencing homelessness to receive proactive care to support their health and stability, including primary care, behavioral health services and case management.
The Comeback of the Physical Store—and What It Means for Your Business
Brick-and-mortar retail is not declining but evolving, as stores take on new roles as logistics hubs, experiential destinations, and powerful drivers of demand and brand equity. Rising digital acquisition costs and operational challenges are pushing companies to integrate physical and online channels, using stores to improve fulfillment, customer engagement, and marketing effectiveness. The broader lesson for leaders: assets once viewed as liabilities can become competitive advantages when their role is reimagined and aligned with changing economics and customer behavior.
Michigan rep rips fellow Democrats for 'troubling' convention behavior
Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet said behavior at the Democratic convention in Detroit is a "step in the wrong direction" that could hurt Dems in November
I asked ChatGPT to use Charlie Munger’s ‘Inversion rule' to rethink my goals — and it beat every productivity app
AI made me see my own behaviors as "success killers" and it was the reality check I needed
WV’s shortage of psychiatrists worst in the nation, report says
Trilliant Health, a Tennessee-based health care analytics and market research firm, released its 2026 Behavioral Health Report in April 2026 and reported that West Virginia has 5.7% of the adequate supply of psychiatrists needed to serve the state’s population, which is the lowest percentage of any state in the nation. Brad Story, the CEO of the West Virginia Behavioral Healthcare Providers Association, said this is the result of several converging challenges.
Scientists Finally Crack Decades-Old Mystery of “Breathing” Lasers
A new model reveals that two very different laser pulse behaviors are fundamentally connected.
“Like Liquid Metal”: Scientists Create Strange Shape-Shifting Material
A simple bundle of staples reveals an unusual physical behavior, one that shifts between rigidity and fluidity depending on how it is handled.
This “quantum” material fooled scientists and revealed something new
A mysterious magnetic material once thought to host an exotic “quantum spin liquid” has turned out to be something entirely different—and possibly just as intriguing. Scientists studying cerium magnesium hexalluminate found it showed the hallmark signs of this elusive quantum state, like a lack of magnetic order and a spread of energy states. But after closer inspection using neutron experiments, they discovered the behavior came from a delicate tug-of-war between two opposing magnetic forces.
ARPA-H announces first research teams for $139 million initiative to transform behavioral health and bring new, more precise and effective treatments to Americans
The EVIDENT initiative builds on the Trump Administration’s executive order to accelerate medical treatments for serious mental illness.
Behavioral health data exchange challenges impede interoperability, says ONC
Technical barriers, workforce limitation, privacy concerns and cost may all contribute to lower rates of electronic exchange of health information by mental health and substance abuse treatment facilities, a new analysis shows.
Mechanohealth: Where life science meets physical forces for health innovation
Integrating mechanobiological principles into disease pathogenesis, therapeutic development, and tissue engineering is reshaping our understanding of biological systems and accelerating the advancement of mechanotherapy and mechanohealth. This field reveals how mechanical cues regulate cellular behavior, such as force transmission along integrin-nucleus pathways and collective cell migration, and tissue functions. In doing so, mechanobiology connects fundamental research with clinical applications, from limiting cancer metastasis and fibrosis to promoting bone regeneration and maintaining vascular homeostasis. Building on discussion from the Inaugural International Conference on Mechanobiology (ICM) 2025, integrating mechanobiological research with clinical strategies offers new opportunities to address unmet needs, including personalized anti-fibrotic interventions or precision bone regenerative therapies. At the same time, it supports the broader concept of mechanohealth -- a paradigm focused on preserving the physiological mechanical balance within tissues.
The Death of Public Health
During the recent measles outbreak, the largest in more than 30 years, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. refused to clearly recommend the measles vaccine, saying instead that it was a “personal decision,” and that parents should “do their own research.” Similarly, during her recent confirmation hearing for United States Surgeon General, Casey Means was questioned by Senator William Cassidy (R, La). “You’re the nation’s doctor,” said Cassidy. “Would you encourage [a mother] to have her child vaccinated!” “I’m not an individual’s doctor,” Means said. “And every individual needs to talk to their doctor before putting a medication in their body.” In June 2025, Marty Makary, Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said that COVID vaccines for pregnant women should be a “personal choice”, even though every other country in the world recommended the COVID vaccine during pregnancy due to a higher risk for severe disease. It doesn’t end there. On January 5, 2026, RFK Jr. reduced the number of routinely recommended vaccines from 18 to 10. For vaccines that protected against influenza, COVID, and rotavirus, parents were urged to speak with their doctors—to make an individual choice. (On March 16, 2026, in a ruling by a federal court in Boston, RFK Jr.’s revised schedule was invalidated.) What’s happening? Why are public health officials moving away from making recommendations for the public? The origin of this change might be rooted in the first two years of the COVID pandemic. In 2020, during the first year on the pandemic, we didn’t have anything to stop a virus that was killing hundreds of people a day and could be spread asymptomatically. We didn’t have antivirals until October, monoclonal antibodies until November, and vaccines until December. All we could do was restrict travel, close businesses, shutter schools, and mask, isolate, quarantine, test, and social distance. During the second year of the pandemic, when we had vaccines to prevent COVID, people couldn’t go anywhere without their vaccine cards. They couldn’t go to their favorite bar or restaurant or sporting event or place of worship without proof of vaccination. Some people were fired from their jobs for refusing to get vaccinated. For many, this was seen as massive government overreach and energized what has been called the “medical freedom movement.” Indeed, a headline in the New York Times declared, “How Health Freedom Became a Winning Rally Cry.” As expressed in the comments of RFK Jr., Casey Means, and Marty Makary, the medical freedom movement focuses on the individual not the community—the opposite of public health. In an article titled “Ethics and Social Value Judgments in Public Health,” ethicists from Yale University distinguished public health from medical freedom. “Public health policies,” they wrote, “are population oriented. Because individual health affects the health of others, public health measures regulate individual behavior to achieve population health goals. All raise questions about how individual autonomy and freedom should be balanced against public health interests…which respects individuals’ sovereignty over their bodies and actions as long as their actions do not harm others.” The medical freedom movement fails to recognize that it often limits the freedom of others. For example, a parent who is afraid to send a child to school where many of the students are unvaccinated. Or immune compromised children who depend on those around them to for protection. The question then becomes “Freedom for whom?” Is it your right, in the name of medical freedom, to catch and transmit a potentially fatal infection—and in so doing, take away the freedom of others? In Four Essays on Liberty, Isaiah Berlin sums it up best. “Liberty for the wolves,” he wrote, “is death to the lambs.” Thanks for reading Beyond the Noise! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe
In Memoriam: Holly Shablack, Assistant Professor of Cognitive and Behavioral Science
Holly Shablack, assistant professor of cognitive and behavioral science at Washington and Lee University, died on April 14 at the age of 35. She was in her fourth year of teaching at W&L. “Holl…
Dario Demonstrates Improved Workplace Function and Productivity Outcomes Through Digital Behavioral Health Program: Real-World Study Published in JMIR Formative Research
/PRNewswire/ -- DarioHealth Corp. (NASDAQ: DRIO) (the "Company", "DarioHealth" or "Dario"), a leader in global digital health, today announced the publication...
Dario Demonstrates Improved Workplace Function and Productivity Outcomes Through Digital Behavioral Health Program: Real-World Study Published in JMIR Formative Research
/PRNewswire/ -- DarioHealth Corp. (NASDAQ: DRIO) (the "Company", "DarioHealth" or "Dario"), a leader in global digital health, today announced the publication...
Quantum computers reveal heat that flows the wrong way
Researchers have observed unusual patterns of heat flow inside quantum computers, revealing behaviors that defy classical thermodynamics.
New study reveals how maze-like magnetic patterns form and evolve in materials
Maze magnetic domains in soft magnetic materials strongly influence energy loss in electric motors, particularly at high temperatures. However, existing models struggle to explain their complex, temperature-dependent behavior. To address this gap, researchers developed an entropy-extended Ginzburg-Landau model combined with data-driven analysis to study these structures. The approach reveals how entropy and energy interactions drive magnetization reversal and increasing domain complexity, providing new insights into magnetic energy-loss mechanisms.
The Hard Truths Behavioral Science Must Face in Conflict Settings - by Britt Titus
Approximately 2 billion people live in conflict-affected areas. Yet most of the theories, experiments, and interventions developed in behavioral science are based on stable contexts.
How to spot and help someone in a mental health crisis
Experts wish more people spotted the signs earlier: feeling overwhelmed, not feeling “like yourself,” shifts in sleep, behavior and mood.
Grand Rounds April 10, 2026: Impact of Behavioral Science-Based Electronic Health Record Tools on Deprescribing for Older Adults (Julie Lauffenburger, PharmD, PhD)
Speaker Julie Lauffenburger, PharmD, PhD Associate Professor of Medicine Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School Keywords Adaptive trial design; Behavioral science; Deprescribing; electronic health record; EHR; Inappropriate […]
Grand Rounds April 10, 2026: Impact of Behavioral Science-Based Electronic Health Record Tools on Deprescribing for Older Adults (Julie Lauffenburger, PharmD, PhD)
Speaker Julie Lauffenburger, PharmD, PhD Associate Professor of Medicine Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School Keywords Adaptive trial design; Behavioral science; Deprescribing; electronic health record; EHR; Inappropriate […]
Behavioral Health Urgent Care Set to Open in Robeson County
The facility in Lumberton will be open 24 hours a day to help patients who are experiencing a mental health or substance misuse crisis.
Israelis suffer negative effects on health-related behavior due to Iran war
A Hebrew University study found that during the war, Israelis struggled with increased consumption of ultra-processed foods and a decrease in sleep and physical activity.
Kash Patel’s Erratic Behavior Could Cost Him His Job
The FBI director has alarmed colleagues with episodes of excessive drinking and unexplained absences.
Proclamation Brings Awareness To State’s Behavioral Health Workforce Needs - West Virginia Public Broadcasting
Recognition from Gov. Patrick Morrisey is helping autism treatment advocates to expand resources in West Virginia.
Bundles Scholar Ray Tebout Is Moving the Justice-Impacted Workforce Toward Business Partnerships
Ray Tebout’s Vision-to-Value concept combines project leadership, personal behavioral reflection, and intrapreneurship to create business value.
Can we trust the science shaping our lives?
Improved methods for social and behavioral sciences research could help enhance public trust in science, says a new study that investigated the robustness of data analysis to understand whether it reliably ...
With navigating nematodes, scientists map out how brains implement behaviors
An MIT Picower Institute study provides maps out exactly what happens in the brains of C. elegans worms when they “follow their nose” to savor attractive odors or avoid unappealing ones.
State Policies Can Help Address the Mental Health Care Workforce Shortages
Hospitals and health systems are a critical point of intervention for individuals experiencing suicidal thoughts and behaviors. In just five years, the share of emergency department visits because of suicide attempts or intentional self-harm more than tripled—climbing from 0.6% in 2015 to over 2% in 2020.
Rogers Behavioral Health workers to vote on union after NLRB rejects challenge
Rogers Behavioral Health workers in West Allis will vote on unionizing April 22 after the NLRB rejected Rogers' challenge.
Analysis | Trump tests loyalty of Christian supporters as erratic behavior escalates
The president maintains his hold on the Christian right, but his bluster, fight with the pope and portrayal of himself as a Jesus-like figure strain that bond.
AMD Linux Graphics Driver Introducing "Power Module" To Better Match Windows Behavior
With the set of today's AMDGPU kernel graphics driver Display Core (DC) patches is a rather curious addition with wiring up the Linux code to a 'power module' that looks like it will better match Microsoft Windows behavior with the AMD Radeon driver around display-related power savings features.
Scientists develop 'light switch' for the love hormone
Researchers have developed a molecular "light switch" for the so-called love hormone oxytocin, offering new insights into how social behavior, partnership bonding, emotions, and mental health are wired ...
HEALTH Yeah! Episode 29: When Kids Don’t Sleep: What Parents Should Know
In this podcast episode, you'll learn about sleep studies, treatment options and how poor sleep can affect behavior, weight and more.
Graphene just defied a fundamental law of physics
In a major breakthrough, scientists have observed electrons in graphene flowing like a nearly frictionless liquid, defying a core law of physics. This exotic quantum state not only reveals new fundamental behavior but could also unlock powerful future technologies.
Trump’s mental acuity in question amid pattern of erratic behavior
Each moment on its own … maybe you brush it off. But together, people are asking: what exactly are we watching?
This Metal Melts in Your Hand – and Scientists Just Discovered Something Strange
Gallium has revealed unexpected behavior that challenges decades-old assumptions about its liquid structure.
‘I thought it was me as a doctor’: 10 of the best political excuses ever
From Boris Johnson to Rudy Giuliani, top politicians have come up with some imaginative justifications for alleged misbehavior.
Wild Animals Are Adapting to City Life in Surprising Ways, Scientists Reveal
There's a pattern to their behavior.
New Missouri health care hub aims to better integrate primary, behavioral care
Two Missouri healthcare organizations have collaborated to create a new healthcare center in Jefferson City.
College of Education and Behavioral Science Names Top Graduates
The College of Education and Behavioral Science at Arkansas State University recognized 34 outstanding graduating students for the 2025-26 academic year during Convocation of Scholars
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate
As the president threatens to wipe out Iran and attacks the pope, even some former allies and advisers are questioning whether he has grown increasingly unbalanced, describing him as “lunatic” and “clearly insane.”
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate
As the president threatens to wipe out Iran and attacks the pope, even some former allies and advisers are questioning whether he has grown increasingly unbalanced, describing him as “lunatic” and “clearly insane.”
Sperm quality is at its peak in the summer, study finds
Seasonal shifts in behavior — not temperature — may subtly influence sperm motility. Whether this variation in sperm quality influences fertility remains to be seen.
How to spot and help someone in a mental health crisis
Experts wish more people spotted the signs earlier: feeling overwhelmed, not feeling “like yourself,” shifts in sleep, behavior and mood.
TikTok vigilante Daadi Snacks calls out obnoxious influencers
The creator behind the Daadi Snacks TikTok account posts videos criticizing influencer behavior. Some of his targets have not been amused.
Neandertals may have hunted and eaten outsiders, chilling cannibalism study finds
A cave in Belgium has revealed unsettling evidence that Neandertals selectively cannibalized outsiders, focusing on women and children. The victims weren’t from the local group and appear to have been treated like prey, with bones butchered for meat and marrow. This suggests the behavior wasn’t ritual, but practical—or possibly linked to intergroup conflict. The discovery paints a darker, more complex picture of Neandertal life during their final millennia.
Scientists Finally Crack the Mystery of Water’s Strangest Behavior After Decades of Research
A hidden transition between two forms of liquid water may explain its most puzzling properties.
Early data promising on RI's evolving behavioral health model
Rhode Island's certified community behavioral health clinics are showing promising results, increasing access and improving outcomes, the author says.
The Dirt: Frontier Behavioral Health planning new Spokane location
The longstanding location of Spokane Roofing Company will soon become a Frontier Behavioral Health location, according to a construction permit application submitted to the city of Spokane.
110,000-year-old discovery rewrites human history: Neanderthals and Homo sapiens worked together
The first-ever published research on Tinshemet Cave reveals that Neanderthals and Homo sapiens in the mid-Middle Paleolithic Levant not only coexisted but actively interacted, sharing technology, lifestyles, and burial customs. These interactions fostered cultural exchange, social complexity, and behavioral innovations, such as formal burial practices and the symbolic use of ochre for decoration. The findings suggest that human connections, rather than isolation, were key drivers of technological and cultural advancements, highlighting the Levant as a crucial crossroads in early human history.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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